Free Picks for Wednesday, March 15th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TIMBERWOLVES AT CELTICS
PLAY: TIMBERWOLVES +6
It took longer than many speculated, but it sure looks like this youthful Minnesota squad is starting to put it together. There’s no denying the talent on this roster and indications are the Wolves are beginning to jell. I think they’re going to be a good spread side down the stretch drive.
It appears as thought the oddsmakers have reached a similar conclusion as the huge points are evidently no longer available. Tonight’s game is a good example as the Celtics are only favored by six points.
But I think even six might be too many for Boston to be spotting here. The Celtics are obviously no picnic to fade. But as soon as I saw this betting line, I knew the square side with the bettors would be Boston, and all early information says that’s exactly the case.
I would not put this call in the contrarian category, though, and in fact I guess I won’t be surprised if this game ends ups being a Pros vs. Joes battleground. I’m expecting the public to get lured in by what seems like a cheap number on Boston. But I also feel the sharps are going to show up on what right now looks to be an underrated Minnesota team. I’ll back that opinion up by making the Timberwolves plus the points today’s free play.
Bruce Marshall
Washington -7.5
The Mavs got the best of the Wiz in Big D back on Jan. 3 when Rick Carlisle's bench outscored Washington counterparts 43-15, and Harrison Barnes (26 points) did enough heavy lifting to offset John Wall & Bradley Beal (who combined for 52). But that was before the Wizards took flight a week or so later and began what evolved into a 25-6 SU surge heading into this game. True, Washington has only covered 2 of last 7 at Verizon Center, as prices have adjusted, but there are signs that Scott Brooks can now rely more on his bench after Bojan Bogdanovic recently erupted for 27 vs. Hawks. Mavs improving defensively since addition of Nerlens Noel from Sixers at deadline, but they're now into a road-heavy stretch for the rest of the season after posting a mediocre spread mark (13-16) away from AmericanAirlines Center.
Scott Rickenbach
Pelicans vs. Heat
Play: Over 206½
The Pelicans are off of a ridiculous result yesterday where the Blazers only made 30% of their shots against them. Keep in mind New Orleans certainly isn't known as a strong defensive team. Now the Pelicans visit Miami and the Heat are off of a rare loss as they lost at Indiana Sunday in a game where they were held to 98 points. The last 3 times that Miami was off of a loss they've responded with a win each time and they've done it with offense. The Heat have averaged 120.7 points per game in those 3 games and, as you would expect based on lofty numbers like that, all 3 games went over the total. The Pelicans enter this game off of back to back wins for just the 3rd time in 2017. The other two times this happened New Orleans allowed an average of 118 points per game in the two games. Look for more of the same Wednesday. The Pelicans last back to back stayed under the total but prior to that each of their last 9 back to back spots have totaled at least 213 points in the 2nd game of the back to back. That said it's a 9-1, 90% run to point totals that are over the generously low posted total on this game. I'll take it! Look for the over to improve to 26-16 when New Orleans if off of a game where they won by a double digit margin.
Scott Spreitzer
Grizzlies vs. Bulls
Play: Grizzlies -2
We backed the Grizzlies last time out and cashed as they snapped a five-game losing streak with a 20 point win over the Bucks. Chicago also snapped a five-game skid, thanks in part to the insertion of Rajon Rondo back into the starting lineup. The move worked well, but that was against the struggling Charlotte Hornets, who have allowed 115, 125, and 108 points in three of their last four games. Chicago remains one of the worst offensive teams in the league and we expect a return to norm against a Memphis team ranked 4th in ppg allowed and FG percentage allowed. Finally, we note that Memphis is on a 45-29 ATS run when playing a team with a losing record over the last two seasons, while the Bulls have covered just eight of their last 28 off a SU road win.
Ray Monohan
New Orleans vs. Miami
Play:New Orleans +6.5
The Pelicans battle Miami Wednesday and there is some value on thePelicans with the points. New Orleans has won back to back games and they're finally seeming like a team that is gelling. Cousins is playing much better than his earlier days with the Pelicans and they're really getting things done on the defensive end.
They come in off a performance of holding the Trail Blazers to just 77 points, an impressive mark.
Some trends to note. Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
The Heat aren't that good here situationally. At this number, New Orleans is worth a flyer.
Jesse Schule
Memphis vs. Chicago
Play: Memphis -1.5
The Grizzlies snapped a five game losing streak with a commanding 113-93 win over Milwaukee on Monday, and they look to keep it going on the road at Chicago tonight. The Bulls are coming off a 115-109 win over Charlotte, but had dropped four in row before that. The Grizzlies have a winning road record (17-16), and they have a history of winning in Chicago. They've won five of their last seven trips to Chicago outright. This will be a third game in four nights for the Bulls, and they've failed to cover in five straight when playing on one day of rest. Chicago is now a half game back of Milwaukee for the final playoff spot in the East, and you have to question the motivation of veteran players like Wade and Butler. Do they really want to extend their season just to get their butts whipped by Cleveland in the first round? I don't think so..
Jim Feist
USC vs. Providence
Play: Over 140
USC has a big front line and can score, 5-1 over the total in non-conference games. The Over is 27-11-1 in the Trojans last 39 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Providence has great guard play and is 4-0-1 over the total in non-conference games.
Marc Lawrence
Memphis vs. Chicago
Play: Memphis -1.5
Edges - Grizzlies: 7-0 ATS in this series with same season loss revenge of 5 or more points… Bulls: 7-13 ATS against foes with same season loss revenge this season, including 2-6 ATS at home. With the Grizzlies back on the win track and looking to avenge home loss suffered against Chicago earlier this season, we recommend a 1* play on Memphis.
Rob Vinciletti
Lakers vs. Rockets
Play: Over 234½
This should be another high scoring game with a total that opened at 234. The Lakers are 5 of 6 over as a road dog of 12 or more and 10 of 14 vs South west division teams. Houston has gone over all 6 times as a home favorite of 12 or more and 9 f 12 vs Pacific division teams. There is also a powerful system that plays on rested conference home favorites that scored 110 or more last out vs a team off a road dog loss. This system cashes over 85% long term Look for this game to play over tonight.
Anthony Michael
Providence +2.5
Going against the big line move here since this game opened Pick'em. Love the Friars since they have been playing very well lately covering 8 of their last 10 games overall and they play very strong defense which always helps in tournament action. Don't under estimate the weather impact, this game will be played in Dayton with a lot of fresh snow on the ground, would not be surprised if a lot of these USC players are not used to that kind of weather so they will be off kilter here. Look for the Friars defense to make the difference in this one.
Buster Sports
NC Central at UC Davis
Play: NC Central -3.5
One of Wednesday's play-in games features UC Davis of the Big West and North Carolina Central of the MEAC. The MEAC Conference is one of the more interesting conferences in the country. In the history of the BIG DANCE this conference has pulled off two of the Number 15/2 upsets . The Eagles will not be an upset winner in their first game this year as they are a 3 1/2 point favorite at the time of this writing over the Aggies. Really like the Eagles here as they are 22nd in total defense and 41st in rebounding in the nation. We have said many times before it is all relative to your conference but we still know that this team can rebound and play some D. As for UC Davis they rank 240th in points per game and anyone who has watched them throughout the year knows that they can really struggle on offense. North Carolina Central has beat Missouri this year and played Ohio St. and LSU tough. UC Davis has won 6 out of 7 and come into this tourney playing some great D themselves. In the end we will take the team that can play some good offense and some good defense as we see this Eagles squad winning this game by 10 or more.
Wunderdog
Hampton @ C. Carolina
Pick: Hampton +9.5
Hampton is in the CBI after making the NCAA Tournament the last two years. The Pirates have won eight of their last 11 games and are led by Jermaine Morrow, who averages 15.5 points. Coastal Carolina is 16-17 and lost 74-51 to Texas Arlington in the quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. Jaylen Shaw leads the Chanticleers with 14.1 points per game while shooting 46.1 percent. Coastal Carolina has lost four of its last seven games and was outscored 45-24 in the second half against UTSA. The Chanticleers shot a paltry 30.2 percent for the game, including 5-of-28 from long range. Shaw finished with 14 points and Artur Labinowicz was the only other player in double figures with 12 points. The Coastal Carolina offense cannot be trusted laying this many points and the Pirates allow opponents only a .430 shooting percentage.
Eric Schroeder
The Big East has traditionally been a powerhouse conference in college basketball. This year, the Pac 12 has three legitimate teams that could make it to the national semifinals: Oregon, Arizona and UCLA.
So for my free winner, I'm going with the team that has played arguably the tougher conference schedule, that being the USC Trojans.
This is a team that opened the season 14-0. But USC closed the season 10-9, not to mention losing four of six to close the season. Thus, the Trojans have been ridiculed since Selection Sunday, particularly by those who believe Syracuse should have been playing in this dance, not the smaller one.
Time for USC to prove the doubters wrong.
The Trojans, who are led by four players who score in double figures, are still seething about losing by just two points to No. 3 seed UCLA in the Pac-12 Tournament. It woud have been USC's second victory in three meetings with the Bruins.
USC plays better away from Los Angeles, than the Friars do away from Providence. The Trojans have won 10 of 16 away from the Galen Center. Providence is 5-9 away from home.
Take the Trojans in this one, as they'll prove they belong in the dance, and move on to SMU.
3* USC
Chris Jordan
On the heels of nailing Richmond OUTRIGHT over Alabama last night with my complimentary winner, my free play for tonight is on George Washington, minus the easy number against Toledo.
As successful as the Rockets have been against the books of late, I don't trust them in this one, as they've been sketchy on the road this season. Toledo is 4-9 in true road games, an 5-12 in all games away from home.
The Rockets' offense will be neutralized by a George Washington defense, that allows a mere 66.2 points per game at home. On the flipside, don't be surprised to see the Colonials put some points up, as the Rockets have given up an average of 83.5 points per true road game.
Look for G-Dub to maintain the momentum throughout, and pull away for the win and cover with late free throws.
1* GEORGE WASHINGTON