Brad Wilton
Wednesday comp play is the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points in their game at the Boston Celtics.
The T-Wolves just cooled off the Washington Wizards, as Minny made it 7-3 straight up their last 10 games played, and an even better 9-1 against the spread in those 10 games.
The Celtics are just 2-3 both straight up and against the spread their last 5 games, and have managed to go no better than .500 over the past 8 series meetings against the Wolves, as the series is a 4-4 spread split the past 8 times these teams have tangled.
Boston is in pursuit of that # 1 seed in the East, and while they should win this game tonight, Minnesota is playing a little too well right now to pass on the points.
Timberwolves for the cover.
2* MINNESOTA
John Martin
Phoenix Suns -5.5
The Phoenix Suns continue playing for pride down the stretch and have not quit. They have gone 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Now they host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Sacramento Kings. The Kings are just 1-8 SU & 3-5-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are short-handed and simply don't have the talent to be competitive down the stretch now that DeMarcus Cousins is gone. The Kings are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win. The Suns are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a ATS loss.
Brandon Lee
BYU -6
I like the Cougars at home against UT-Arlington. I know the Mavericks had impressive road wins over Texas And St Mary's in non-conference play, but this scenario is a lot different. Arlington won the Sun Belt regular season title with a 14-4 record and had their eyes set on the NCAA Tournament, but were upset in the semifinals of the Sun Belt Tournament by Texas State. They didn't just get beat, they were embarrassed 62-83. That came without one of their best players in Jalen Jones, who missed his first game of the year and isn't expected to play against the Cougars. The disappointment of not making the tourney and not having your best player is a lot to overcome (look at Valpo last night against Illinois). It's also important to note that BYU is a dominant 14-3 at home, where they are outscoring opponents by 12.4 ppg.
Rocketman
Fresno State +10½
The Fresno State Bulldogs travel to TCU to take on the Horned Frogs on Wednesday night. Fresno State is 20-12 SU overall this year while TCU comes in with a 19-15 SU overall record on the season. Fresno State is 5-1 ATS since 1997 against Big 12 opponents. Fresno State is 6-1 ATS this year in non-conference games. Fresno State is 14-5 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record. TCU is 99-141 ATS last 140 home games. TCU is 161-218 ATS last 379 games when playing against a team with a winning record. TCU is 100-142 ATS last 242 games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. TCU is 3-8 ATS last 11 games overall. TCU is 0-4 ATS last 4 games against the Mountain West conference. Fresno State is 15-5 ATS last 20 games as an underdog. We'll recommend a small play on Fresno State tonight!
Jack Jones
Colorado vs. UCF
Play: UCF -2.5
The UCF Knights are thrilled to be playing in the NIT. They went a solid 21-11 this season and were one of the most underrated teams in the country. They were the third-best team in the AAC, behind both SMU and Cincinnati.
The Knights did most of their damage at home this season, going 13-3 while outscoring opponents by nearly 13 points per game. They beat Cincinnati at home and only lost to SMU by 5 on their home floor.
Colorado has been overrated all season, going 19-14 SU & 12-20 ATS in lined games. The Buffaloes went just 6-10 SU & 5-11 ATS in all road games this year. I don't expect them to be too excited to be playing in the NIT.
Colorado is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 postseason tournament games. The Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS in their last four true road games. The Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. UCF is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss. The Knights are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.
Tony Karpinski
Bucks vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -7½
The Clippers defense will stop the Bucks on too many possessions, and that isn't that hard when you're struggling with scoring, like Milwaukee, as they are putting up only 101/ game - the Clippers frontcourt can cause a lot of contact in the paint - they aren't afraid of contact, and this will be a problem. Chris Paul has been excellent with his shooting, in particular, and Paul will do it again.
Milwaukee doesn't play with enough aggression, and the Clips gives a lot of switched and disguised off screen looks, which will be hard for the frontcourt of the Bucks to deal with. I like the LA Clippers at home to take care of business.
Jimmy Boyd
Akron vs. Houston
Play: Houston -8
I like the Cougars to not only win but to win big and cover the large spread at home against Akron. The Zips posted the best record in the MAC regular season at 14-4, a full 3-games better than the next best team. Needless to say, Akron expected to be playing in the NCAA Tournament and I just don't see them being interested at all in this one. Sure the Zips were in a similar spot last year, losing the MAC Tournament championship game and then covering on the road in the NIT first round at Ohio State. The thing is, the Buckeyes are one team that Akron can get motivated for regardless of when they play. I just don't see that same incentive against a team like Houston.
The Cougars finished 3rd in the AAC at 12-6 and really weren't a threat to make the NCAA Tournament. I look for them to take this NIT gig seriously, especially at home where they are 13-4 on the year. Akron is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a dog of 7 to 12.5 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games.
Teddy Davis
Pelicans +6½
The Pelicans are starting to play better and I believe we are starting to see a late surge for them here. The key here is the match up problems that this Pelicans team presents. Davis and Cousins will be able to handle Whiteside down low. There is no doubt that Miami has been the biggest surprise of the season and with that now comes inflated lines.
SPORTS WAGERS
CALGARY -105 over Boston
OT included. The two hottest teams in the NHL meet here and the market has it priced evenly. While that may seem to make sense, a close look reveals the Bruins are getting way too much credit. If this game was in Boston, the B’s would be at least a -130 favorite. Now we get the better team, at home at a much smaller price and that is true value at its best.
Boston has won three in a row and 11 of its last 14 games. That’s nice but its last six wins came against Vancouver, Philly and Detroit, New Jersey, Arizona and Dallas. Those are six non-playoff teams. In between those games, the B;s played two playoff teams, Ottawa and New York (Rangers) and went 0-2 in those games. It may also surprise you to learn that the B’s record against the elite teams is one of the worst in the NHL. Boston has seven wins in 21 games against top-10 competition. The Red Wings, Sabres and Hurricanes all have more than that. The Colorado Avalanche also have seven victories against top-10 teams’ in one less game than the Bruins. That’s right, Colorado is 7-13 against top-10 and Boston is 7-14. Against top-16 teams, it’s not much better, as Boston has 11 wins in 32 games. Only two teams in the entire league, Colorado and New Jersey have fewer wins against top-16 teams than these Bruins. The Bruins are hot but truth be told, they have been beating up on the weaker teams all season long and now they’re about to run into a freight train.
Calgary is coming off a 4-3 OT victory against the Penguins. The Flames rallied from one down twice, they blew a late third period lead and then they won it in the shootout for its 10th victory in a row. When Washington or Pittsburgh wins 10 in a row, they are priced much higher against similar opposition but Calgary is a small market team that does not have a big U.S. following. That works in our favor because we get the Flames at bargain prices. The Flames have allowed two goals or less in eight of its last nine games and it would have been nine out of nine had Pittsburgh not scored last game with under four minutes remaining. Calgary has outscored its opponents 37-18 over this 10-game winning streak and that includes a 6-5 victory over Nashville to get this thing started. Some will fade the letdown angle here after the Flames defeated Pittsburgh but that would likely be premature. When a team is this hot, they’re energized, confident and can’t wait to get back on the ice. The letdown game for the Flames will be right after their next loss. For this one, we’re simply getting tremendous value on them.