Free Picks for Wednesday, March 1st, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
UTAH STATE AT UNLV
PLAY: UTAH ST -4.5
I don’t think I need to say much about UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels are a disaster right now, and truth be told, I am not seeing much fight out of this team. The most recent defeat was the worst yet, as they flat out gave up in the game. That might seem overly blunt, but it’s not inaccurate.
I suppose it’s possible UNLV rises up and plays with 40 minutes of intensity in an effort to not be the first Rebels squad to ever lose ten straight (they currently share the record at nine with the 1958-59 squad, and the school itself was in just its second year of existence). But let’s just say I’m skeptical that will be the case.
As for Utah State, this is evidently a big deal to the Aggies. Utah State has won only once at the T&M and that was all the way back in 1995. Head coach Tim Duryea is certainly saying all the right things and those sentiments are being echoed by the players. The Aggies arrive actually playing what is their best basketball of the season, so they own what could be the totally opposite mindset of the Rebels right now.
I won’t pretend there’s any value at all as far as the betting line is concerned as the oddsmakers are also aware of just how terrible UNLV has been. But at this point, I’m willing to sacrifice a basket on the number to be on the fade UNLV bandwagon. I’ll side with Utah State tonight.
Ken Thomson
Utah St. -4
No team is playing any worse in the country right now........if there are 3,000 in the Big Thomas & Mack Center, I'll be surprised. Senior Night with 3 Seniors who will get little recognition. This is as bad as it gets with this program. There is a chance the Rebels cover this number and that's if the Aggies play passive and sit back. If Utah State comes at the Rebs, I see the Aggies by 8-14 points tonight!!
Scott Rickenbach
Wizards vs. Raptors
Play: Wizards +4
Whenever something looks too good to be true it usually is. Many are going to look at this game and say how can the Raptors be laying only a couple of buckets at home when Washington is in a back to back and just hosted the #1 team in the NBA last night? The "too good to be true" angle is especially in effect when you look at the fact that the Wizards are 10-15 on the road this season and they're at Toronto where the Raptors are 21-10 on the season. Being the contrarian that I am it is games like this that often catch my attention and I am going to back the feisty Wizards who are seeking revenge here against a Raptors team that is still adjusting to the recent loss of Kyle Lowry to injury. Washington swept Toronto out of the playoffs two years ago but, since then, the Raptors have won 5 straight regular season meetings against the Wizards including a victory by double digits at Washington early this season. A little payback is on order for tonight and the Wizards are 19-9 ATS this season when playing with revenge. The Raptors are currently on a 7-12 ATS run after their non-covering win versus the Knicks Monday. Just like the Wizards, Toronto is playing their 4th game in 6 nights so the Raptors scheduling "edge" here is truly not that big.
Stephen Nover
Wizards vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -4
Great win for the Wizards last night at home against the Warriors. Unfortunately for Washington it doesn't get any time to savor beating the best team in basketball. That's because the Wizards take to the road to meet the hot again Raptors. Toronto has won four in a row and is highly motivated to hold home-court in this important home-and-away matchup, which resumes again on Friday with the two teams playing at Verizon Center, home of the Wizards. The Raptors are strong at home as evidenced by their 21-10 record at Air Canada Centre. Washington is 10-15 on the road. The Wizards are 3-7 when playing without rest. This also is their third game in four days. Guards John Wall and Bradley Beal each logged more than 39 minutes last night. Otto Porter, the Wizards' third-best player behind the two guards, played nearly 38 minutes. The Wizards needed those big minutes from their key players in their physical, hard-fought, leave-it-all-on-the-court 112-108 win against the Warriors. When the Wizards nearly upset the Cavaliers at home before losing in overtime on Feb. 6, they nearly were upset by the Nets in their following game. The Nets have the worst record in the NBA by far, but the Wizards just nipped them 114-110 in overtime as 10-point road favorites. The Wizards clearly were coming down from their huge effort against Cleveland, the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors have adjusted to life without Kyle Lowry. DeMar DeRozan has been on fire averaging 37.7 points and shooting 53.6 percent in the three games following All-Star break. Toronto is better defensively and stronger in the frontcourt since acquiring Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker at the trade deadline and having power forward Patrick Patterson return from injury. Toronto has dominated the Wizards winning the past eight meetings. Certainly the Wizards are much improved. They are deserving of respect and major props. However, this is a terrible spot for them and Toronto also is much improved. This isn't the same Raptors team that was so bad before the break.
Ben Burns
Wizards vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -4
The Raptors had yesterday off, after earning a momentum-building win over the Knicks on Monday. On the other hand, the Wizards battled the Warriors just last night. The Wizards won that game, showing that they can beat any team in the league, when playing at Washington. They're not the same team on the road though, as they're only 10-15, most recently losing at Philadelphia. Knowing that they'll face these same Wizards, at Washington, on Friday, look for the Raptors to "hold serve" at home this evening.
Braxton Myles
Connecticut vs. East Carolina
Play: East Carolina +2
I was going to make this my top play for the day but I liked another game just a little bit more so I figured what better game to make my free pick for the day! East Carolina at home this season is hard to beat they have gone 11-5 SU and 6-3 ATS there. I liked this line and then I learned that one of Connecticut's big time offensive scores was questionable for this game due to an ankle injury. If he doesn't play it will be hard for them to put up enough points to compete with East Carolina at home and if he does play he obviously wont be 100% so shouldn't make his usual impact in the game.
Marc Lawrence
Rockets vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -1½
Edges - Clippers: 14-8 ATS with same season loss revenge of 20 or more points, including 10-3 ATS when not favored by more than 5 points… Rockets: 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS against greater than .610 opposition with same season loss revenge of 24 or more points. With Houston just 3-14 SUATS against winning teams on Wednesdays, we recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Clippers.
3G-Sports
Boston College vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -17
This could be that game for Notre Dame Bonzie Colson to put up some crazy numbers, I wouldn't be surprised to see one of his 25/13 games. Notre Dame is playing without regard right now. The scoring game of Notre Dame has been nothing short of excellent over the last several weeks - Boston College isn't going to be the team to stop that. Boston College has a team who struggled with stopping teams from putting up pts and some other teammates, who don't always get open with enough consistency. On Boston College - they get beat on the glass way too much to be a serious threat. Notre Dame wins by 20 points
Mike Anthony
Michigan vs. Northwestern
Play: Michigan -1
It's absolutely ridiculous to think Michigan are going to fall off without a fight - they are proving they belong in the talk to make the brackets. They still have a good defense and are a good shooting team, bottom line. That is in the top 3rd in the NCAA. Michigan plays quick and defend the lane tough. Northwestern Scottie Lindsey is an all-around player, and his recent return is important. But he's also known for his tendency to turn the ball over in tough spots. He has the stroke but, he gets stuck behind his other guys in the backcourt, at times. This is an issue that Northwestern needs to be concerned about- especially playing Michigan. Michigan wins by 5 or more points on Wednesday evening.
Jim Feist
Boston College at Notre Dame
Pick: Over
Boston college can score but the defense is dreadful, allowing 84, 104 and 91 the last three games, on a 9-1 run over the total. The Over is 8-3 in the Eagles last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Notre Dame is a veteran team that can score inside and out, sixth in the ACC in scoring, second in three-point shooting. Notre Dame is 12-4 over the total after a spread loss, plus 11-3 over against a team with a winning percentage below .400. And the Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Jesse Schule
La Salle vs. Saint Louis
Pick: Saint Louis
Two of the bottom feeders of the A-10 will battle it out on Wednesday, and the visiting La Salle Explorers are asked to cover a big spread at Saint Louis. The Bilikens are 5-5 in their last 10 overall, and they have won five of their last six home games. The one home loss during that span came against 1st place Dayton. La Salle on the other hand has lost five of it's last six road games, and seven of it's last 10 overall. The Bilikens have won four of the last six meetings between the two teams, and all three home meetings during that span. The Explorers lost their last game on the road at Massachusetts by a whopping 13 points, and they will wrap up the season with their final home game against Fordham this weekend. I don't see any reason for the visitors to get up for this game, while the home team should be highly motivated on Senior's Night.
Dave Essler
UMass +3
I'm not sure it goes to +3 on it's own - after Davidson beat St. Bonaventure last night, it may be Richmond that has nothing to play for, not UMass. With the Bonnie's loss, Richmond will be the 3/4 seed in the A-10 Tournament pretty much no matter what - assuming they win their final game at home against St. Louis. We know that UMass is a tough out at home, in part due of course to the fact that they play better, but Amherst is not an easy place to get to. UMass is one of the few teams that will run with (and faster than) Richmond, and what I don't like about the Spiders (aside from my disdain for Mooney) is the fact that they've got a very short bench. Richmond does most of their damage on offense inside, which plays into one of UMass' strength - length. They ARE just that much bigger. Previous UMass teams relied much more heavily on the three-ball than this one - so the aforementioned "length" is a huge advantage on the offensive end as well. UMass should have a ton of confidence after beating (pulling away late) LaSalle on Saturday, and they beat Dayton here earlier in the season, so there's no reason that in their last home game they shouldn't beat Richmond. If we'd have won last night I MIGHT have pressed the issue with a bigger bet - but as you guys know we've done well being patient, thorough, and consistent (for the most part). No reason to change things with only a few days of regular season play left, especially since figuring teams' motivation levels is such a bigger part of the problem. Obviously with SOME teams it's clear - as in perhaps Michigan State tonight, but they're on the road and I actually lean and may add Illinois before all is said and done.
Art Aronson
Nevada vs. San Jose State
Play: San Jose State +7
Nevada sits a half game behind CSU in the standings and must win to keep pace after the Rams beat Wyoming last night. San Jose State now looks to play spoiler. The Spartans are only 7-9 in league play, but we’re expecting them to come out fired up tonight. Can Nevada stay focused and not get caught looking ahead to its game at home against Colorado State on the weekend, a contest which would decide the conference regular season title? That’s the big question obviously. The Wolfpack have lost four times in league play and three of those MWC defeats have come on the road. The Spartans still have a lot to play for as well, as they look to finish with at least a .500 record in hopes of receiving a tournament invitation. Note that Nevada is just 4-7 ATS this season after scoring 80 points or more, while San Jose State is 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss. The Spartans have been competitive in defeat and have not lost a home game by double digits since a ten-point loss to Boise State back on January 21st. It’s Senior Night and the pressure is clearly on the Wolf Pack.
Mike Lundin
Wizards vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -4
Massive let down spot for the Washington Wizards here as they're coming off a 112-108 win against Golden State last night. While it's true that the revenge angle is in their favor after the Raptors beat them at Washington back in November, keep in mind that this is the first game of a home-and-home set so I think the Wizards will throw this game and put all their focus on the rematch home in Washington on Friday.