JACK JONES
Dallas Mavericks +5.5
The Dallas Mavericks are trying to chase down a playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have won their last two games with a 96-83 home victory over the Pelicans and a 96-89 home win over the red hot Miami Heat.
Now the Mavericks hit the road to take on a struggling Atlanta Hawks team that is getting way too much respect from the books. The Hawks are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, losing by 15 at the Clippers, by 18 at home to the Heat and by 19 at the Magic. They did beat the Celtics last time out, but Boston was on the second of a back-to-back.
Dallas lost at home to the Hawks earlier this season, but the Mavericks are 18-7 ATS when revenging a same season loss this year. The Mavericks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win, and 0-5 ATS in its last five games off a win by more than 10 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY -1½ +158 over Carolina
Carolina has on win over its last eight games. That lone victory came against Ottawa minus Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan and Mark Stone. Over their last eight games, the Hurricanes have scored nine goals. They played last night in Florida against a reeling Panthers team and fell behind 2-0 before rallying to tie it. Eventually, the ‘Canes would lose 3-2 in OT but chasing a game for 60 minutes is tiring. Carolina will now go back-to-back and there is also a chance a couple more guys may sit here should a trade take place. The Hurricanes were sellers yesterday when they sent Viktor Stalberg to Ottawa and there is a great chance they’ll be selling again today before 3:00 PM and after this play is posted. Lastly, the ‘Canes used Cam Ward last night, which means Eddie Lack will be back between the pipes. Lack’s last road game was a 5-0 loss. His last two road games resulted in a 5-0 loss and a 6-3 loss. In net for the Bolts is their new #1, Andrei Vasilevskiy. The goaltending battle is a complete mismatch.
The media is suggesting that the Bolts are sellers because of the Brian Boyle and Ben Bishop deals, thus relegating them to “missing the playoffs”. Don’t buy it. You see, the Bolts relegated Bishop to backup status so they moved him. Brian Boyle was going to walk at the end of the season anyway, so they wanted to get something for him. The Lightning are chasing the Maple Leafs for that final playoff spot and they’re just five points out with a game in hand. Toronto’s loss last night in San Jose had to get the Bolts’ juices flowing, as they can now pull within three points with a win here. You will not find a line in the NHL that is playing better than Tampa’s top line of Johnson/Palat/Kucherov. Jonathan Drouin was a force in last year’s playoffs and he’s playing at that level again right now. Victor Hedman is a franchise defenseman and he, too, is finally playing like one after a season of mediocrity. Remember, the Bolts were picked to be a Cup contender before the season started. They have underachieved in a big way but now they’re starting to peak. The Bolts have picked up points in nine of their last 10 games with only regulation loss over that span occurring against the red-hot Flames. In its last two victories over Ottawa and Edmonton, Tampa outscored that pair, 9-2. The Lightning are not sellers. Steven Stamkos is skating and is very likely coming back soon. Tampa can pull within three points of a playoff spot with a whopping 20 games left. Yesterday, the Bolts were listed at 50-1 to win it all. At the time of this writing, futures were off the board in anticipation of some trades. When the numbers are posted again, it might be wise to make a small bet on the Bolts to win it all because they are coming hard and they were one of the favs to win it all before the season started. This is a team worth getting behind right now so don’t believe a word you hear about them being sellers. The ‘Canes are their next victim.
SPORTS WAGERS
Hartford +16 -106 over ALBANY
Like the Atlantic Sun Tournament, the America East Conference Tournament is one of just a few conferences where the teams travel throughout the tournament with the higher seed gaining home court advantage. Albany enters this affair as the #3 seed, behind defending champion #2 Stony Brook and #1 Vermont. Albany’s seeding in this situation could work in our favor, as top-seeded teams' are often overpriced and at the very least, the dog has a somewhat psychological edge here that may come into play. The Great Danes were a three-time defending America East Champion heading into the 2016 tournament where they would be upset in the first round of the competition. Who was the responsible party? It was the Hartford Hawks.
On March 2nd, 2016 on their own court in the Capital City of the State of New York, the Danes would host the Hawks and Hartford would swoop in as an 18-point dog and defeat the Danes 68-59. In this situation, Albany entered as the #2 seed and Hartford as the #7. The irony of it all was that just a week before, Albany rolled Hartford on the Hawks own court by 16 points and they came into the aforementioned contest with an identical record to the one they hold currently in both overall and conference capacities (9-22, 4-12). They do say history has a funny way of repeating itself and we are doomed to repeat the past if we do not learn from it. While this is an analysis of handicapping, we can wax philosophical for just a moment. For Hartford, four starters were all present and participants in the 2016 upset in the quarterfinals and heading into this contest you can be assured they will be compelled by the omens and hope to invoke the Ghosts of Tournaments Past to help propel another ambitious upset bid. Hartford is 2-0 against Albany in this tournament and now it’s getting weird.
While we cannot assure anyone that lightning will strike for a third time, we can ascertain that the Hawks will likely be that of a giggling green ghost playing on the worst fears of Albany, a la Scooby Doo in this contest. There are other reasons to take the points too. First, the total of 135 is low and in low scoring affairs, covering a big number is difficult. Secondly, Hartford led the conference with 7.1 steals per game overall, including 6.8 during league action. Six players have at least 25 swipes. Every steal is a potential four-point swing and when taking back lumber like this, that’s significant. Lastly, Hartford made a season-high 32 free throws on Wednesday, going an impressive 32-for-37 (.865) at the stripe and again, when taking back big wood, those single points make a difference. Don’t get us wrong, as Albany is clearly the better team with superior players but Hartford has seen them twice already, just like last year, and they’re very familiar with the strategies that the Great Danes employ. Finally, it’s not like Albany was crushing everyone in their path this year, as they ended up with a modest 10-6 record in the conference. Blowing out this invader is not going to be easy.
Kansas St +120 over TCU
Kansas State didn't do itself any favors after getting blown out by last place Oklahoma on Saturday. That loss certainly hurt K-State chances as a “bubble” team, but as the sixth place team in the Big 12, that was more of a pipe dream anyway. With four teams from the Big 12 already a lock for The Tournament, K-State's only way in is to win the conference tournament. While they are currently tied for sixth with the Horned Frogs, a win tonight at TCU would go a long way to helping the Wildcats clinch a first round bye. K-State controls its own destiny with two games to go. The Wildcats can finish as high as sixth, or as low as eighth. Earlier this season when these two teams played in Manhattan, the Wildcats dropped an 86-80 overtime decision as a 5½-point home favorite. That result should only further lower K-State's value in the marketplace. That makes us buyers.
The TCU Horned Frogs are in the middle of a five-game losing streak and while there isn't any value in kicking a team when its down, an exception could be made here. TCU started Big 12 conference play with high hopes after winning 11 of its first 12 games, but the Frogs could not get the signature wins they needed down the stretch to make an impression on the Selection Committee. TCU has one win over a ranked opponent this season, and that was at home to Iowa State back in January when the Cyclones were nowhere near the Top-25. The Horned Frogs last chance at a big “signature” win came at home to West Virginia on Saturday night, where TCU lost a heartbreaker 61-60. With an at-large bid out of their grasp the Horned Frogs will now host senior night at Schollmaier Arena. Senior night is more than a game; it's a milestone for many of these young men. They've got friends and family coming from all around to see them play for the last time. It's hugely emotional because they have just spent four of the best and most unforgettable years of their lives here and it’s hard to say goodbye. Lifelong friendships are made and it's the last time many of them will play competitive basketball in front of a home crowd at this level. The more we watch these “Senior Night’s” the more we like the fade angle. We have seen dozens of teams stumble out of the gate on these nights and for TCU, the game itself, with virtually nothing to play for takes a backseat to the farewells. That opens the door for the dog and we're suggesting they'll walk through it. K-State outright it is.
Brandon Shively
Rockets at Clippers
Play: Rockets
The Rockets are a team I like to look at when coming off a loss. They are coming off their worst loss of the season, by 19 points to the Pacers. After hitting 20+ three pointers in their previous 2 games, they couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn against Indiana. The Rockets are 12-1 SU this year off a loss where they shot under 45% from the floor. When coming off a loss of 10 or more point this year, they are a PERFECT 10-0 SU the following game.
Tonight, the Rockets are a small dog against the Clippers. L.A. is getting back healthy but is still not a consistent team. It took overtime to beat Charlotte their last game. They lost at home vs the Spurs before that and expectedly lost to the Warriors first game back after the All-Star Break.
The Clippers are playing with same season revenge against the Rockets are giving up 140 points on 55% shooting earlier this year. The Clippers had the same scenario against the Warriors this year and Golden State beat them again. The Clippers are a long term 16-38 straight up when playing with revenge vs the Rockets.
The Rockets have a big edge with their bench, especially with the addition of Lou Williams. The Rockets can go small and put Harden at the ‘4’ with Eric Gordon at the ‘3’. The Clippers don’t match up well with the ‘small ball’ lineup in my opinion. That’s not their style of game. Take a closer look at the Rockets tonight.
Larry Ness
Cleveland at Boston
Pick: Boston
The 41-17 Cleveland Cavaliers are four games up on the 38-22 Boston Celtics in the race for the East's No. 1 seed. The Cavs lost badly at home to Chicago on Saturday night (on ABC, no less) but of course, played without LBJ in that one. They looked more like the East's best team (and the defending champs) with LBJ back on the court Monday, when they beat the Bucks, 102-95. LBJ challenged his front office during the team's January struggles and it looks like he may just have some 'juice' in this organization. PG Deron Williams was signed on Monday after being waived by the Mavericks and Andrew Bogut will join the team later this week after he clears waivers.
The Celtics had an awful performance the last time out, losing 114-98 at home to the Hawks on Monday. Isaiah Thomas (29.6-6.2 APG) was a woeful a 4 of 21 from the floor against Atlanta and he finished with 19 points. It ended his franchise-record streak of 20-point games at 43. However, SG Avery Bradley (17.4-6.7) returned from an 18-game absence, scoring six points in 15 minutes.
With Monday's loss, the Celtics have lost three of four and after this game at TD Garden with Clevland, Boston heads out on a five-game West Coast trip. The Cavs have easily handled the Celtics in the first two meetings this year but note that each game was played in Cleveland. This is Boston's chance to prove it can beat the conference's best team. If the Celtics can't beat the Cavs here....Take Boston.