Free Picks for Wednesday, March 22nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
76ERS AT THUNDER
PLAY: 76ERS +11
I really wonder how interested the Thunder will be in this game. They really tossed in a clunker on Monday against Golden State, and that was a game they were absolutely interested in. Now they face a nonentity and I suspect it’s going to show with a somewhat unfocused effort.
So the main deal tonight might well be getting Russell Westbrook his nightly triple double. That should not be a problem as it’s not like Philly is real adept at stopping anything. For that matter, neither are the Thunder and I would guess we will see a pretty high scoring game this evening.
An interesting trend has developed with the 76ers. Basically, no one gets fired up to face this team, and for pretty obvious reasons. That’s actually led to the Sixers turning into major money makers against the better teams in the NBA. The rationale is simple enough. The better teams do just enough to win but that doesn’t translate to covering what are usually big spreads.
Consequently, Philly is covering like crazy against winning teams. Go through their season ledger and see how many this team has now covered in succession when matched up a +.500 team. You might be kind of shocked when you see how lengthy this streak is. I’ll look for the trend to be maintained tonight with Philadelphia on the receiving end of a double digit line. 76ers plus the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Illinois-Chicago vs. Coastal Carolina
Play: Illinois-Chicago +3½
Coastal Carolina was down at halftime against Loyola-Maryland Monday and had used a lot of energy just to get back in the game as they were down 18-2 with less than 12 minutes to go in the first half. While the Chanticleers deserve respect for coming back from that deficit and eventually rallying for the win and cover, they also deserve to be downgraded for an inexcusable start to the game on their home floor. Now Coastal Carolina faces a dangerous Illinois-Chicago team that is playing with an "us against the world" mentality. Though young, the Flames have had all season now to bond together and they certainly showed the benefits of that in their big upset win over George Washington Monday. Keep in mind the Flames also upset Wisconsin-Green Bay in the Horizon League tourney so they've been a dangerous dog and have played solid defense in 3 of their last 4 games overall. A lot of points expected here and UIC has gone 10-3 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Also, the Flames are 8-4 ATS in road games this season. The Chanticleers also are still likely to be without Shivaughn Wiggins and the senior guard is one of their top scorers. Coastal Carolina, after rallying to pull away from the Greyhounds Monday, will struggle with a Flames team whose confidence is growing with each upset win and I look for UIC to improve to 4-1 SU in their last 5 games with another win tonight but grab the points here!
Rob Vinciletti
Illinois +3½
The Illini are taking points at home despite a better RPI Rank than Central Florida. Big 10 teams in the Quarter finals of this tournament are 8-1 ats. UCF has a solid defense but ranks 297th on offense. We also note that Quarter finals favorites that are off back to back wins and covered have failed to cover 9 of 11 times the past few years. Illinois is 4-1 this year at home vs teams ranked 50 to 100 in the RPI Scale and they have won and covered all 4 times on Hump day. We will take the points in this one.
Kevin Thomas
Oilers +112
Oilers(39-24-9) take on Anaheim(38-22-11)both are tied for 2nd place in the Pacific conference. Both goalies have been playing lights out. Slight edge to Talbot experience this time of year goes a long way. Bernier has been a fill for the Ducks but is making the most of it. McDavid will be key here tonight.
Dustin Hawkins
Hornets vs. Magic
Play: Magic +5
The Hornets are only 3-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season. Charlotte is only 1-9 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.
Jim Feist
New York vs. Utah
Play: Under 203.5
Milwaukee puts out a good defensive effort for this coaching staff, #10 in the NBA in points allowed. It's the second of a back to back spot after playing at Portland last night. It's the end of a 6-game road trip, on an 8-1 run under the total heading into last night. The Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games playing on no days rest. It's won't take much to slow down this Kings' offense that is on an 11-5 run under the total.
RJ Robbins
CS Bakersfield vs. Texas Arlington
Play: Over 143.5
The winner earns a spot in the Final 4 at Madison Square Garden. These two are 3-1 Over in both their NIT contest! I expect an up team tempo tonight and look for both teams to score over 80 points!
Kevin Thomas
Edmonton vs. Anaheim
Play: Edmonton +112
Oilers (39-24-9) take on Anaheim (38-22-11) both are tied for 2nd place in the Pacific conference. Both goalies have been playing lights out. Slight edge to Talbot experience this time of year goes a long way. Bernier has been a fill for the Ducks but is making the most of it. McDavid will be key here tonight.
Power Sports
Philadelphia vs. Oklahoma City
Philadelphia +11
I have great respect for the oddsmakers, but it sure seems as if they're consistently undervaluing the 76ers. Philly was my last free play and while they ultimately lost SU (in overtime), they still covered the spread in Orlando for their seventh straight ATS win overall. They are now a league-best 45-24 at the betting window this season (45-22 getting points) and I'd recommend jumping on them here, getting double digits in Oklahoma City.
I faded the Thunder in their big showdown w/ Golden State Monday and was richly rewarded. At home, OKC trailed by 20 at the half and 26 after three quarters before ultimately losing 111-95. Look for that loss to have a psychological effect on the team in the short-term. They were hot going into Monday night (5-0 ATS/SU), but I continue to maintain that this is a very mediocre team. In fact, they're being outscored per 100 possessions. They should consider themselves quite fortunate to be 10 games over .500.
Here's an incredible trend: the 76ers have covered 13 straight times when facing a team that averages at least 106 PPG. OKC's current average is 106.7 PPG. The Sixers have also covered seven straight times against teams yielding at least 106 PPG. OKC currently allows 106 PPG on the dot. Philly has also covered 10 straight against teams with a winning record! This spread is just way too high, folks.
Marc Lawrence
Milwaukee vs. Sacramento
Pick: Sacramento +3.5
Edges - Kings: 8-4 ATS versus unrested foes this season, including 3-0 ATS as non-conference dogs… Bucks: 7-19 ATS away versus non-conference foes this season, including 1-5 SUATS without rest… With the Kings playing with season loss revenge from a 117-91 defeat in Milwaukee in November, we recommend a 1* play on Sacramento
Info Plays
Knicks / Jazz Under 203
I have a couple of systems supporting our pick. Play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 when one of the teams is after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season. This system is 243-164 (59.7%) since 1996. Play the under when the total is greater than or equal to 200 when one of the teams is after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This system is 49-22 (69%) over the last 5 seasons.
Will Rogers
Edmonton vs. Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim
The set-up: The 39-24-9 Edmonton Oilers have 87 points and are tied with the 38-23-11 Anaheim Ducks in the West's Pacific Divsion, four points behind division-leading San Jose. However, as the two teams get set to meet tonight at the Honda Center, they both have to be concerned with the re-hot Calgary Flames, who have climbed to within one point of them.
Edmonton: The Oilers will take a four-game winning streak into Wednesday night's matchup, looking to end a 10-year postseason drought. Connor McDavid owns NHL highs of 82 points and 57 assists and workhorse goaltender Cam Talbot (37-20-8, 2.32 GAA & .922 save percentage) will attempt to help Edmonton clinch the season series with a win tonight (Oilers have won two of three over the Ducks). Talbot will make his 11th successive start, as well as his 23rd appearance in the past 24 games and his league-leading 66th this season.
Anaheim: For the Ducks, John Gibson is still nursing a lower-body injury so Jonathan Bernier, is expected to be in net. Bernier owns a 7-2-1 mark with a 1.78 goals-against average and .943 save percentage in his last 10 outings.
The pick: The Ducks are coming on strong down the stretch, earning points in six of their last seven games (5-1-1), including victories over division leaders Chicago, Washington and San Jose. Yes, Talbot has been terrific in goal for Edmonton but Bernier hasn't taken a backseat to anyone these last 10 games. Play the home team.
Neil The Greek
Cleveland at Denver
Play: Denver +4
For what ever reason, when the Nuggets play the better teams in the league at home, they play extremely well. And I keep saying watch out for this team in the upcoming years, because they are building a really good team. I think they are going to run the Cavs right out of the gym Wednesday night.
Steve Janus
76ers vs. Thunder
Play: 76ers +10½
Play Against - Favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This system is 34-11 (76%) against the spread since 1996.