Brandon Lee
Pistons -1½
The public is on the Bulls at home in this one, but I think Detroit has the clear edge here. Both of these teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but Chicago had to play OT in their heartbreaking 2-point loss to the Raptors, which saw them blow a 15-point lead going into the 4th quarter. Detroit's loss was even worse, losing to the lowly Raptors. The extra 5-minutes on no rest is huge and the Bulls are going to be short-handed. Starting center Robin Lopez is expected to be suspended after last night's ejection for fighting and backup center Cristiano Felicio is questionable with a back injury. The Bulls are going to get abused inside and that should be more than enough for Detroit to get the win here.
Jimmy Boyd
Wizards -7
I know Washington has failed to cover their last 5 games, but I like them to cash in tonight at home against the Hawks. The Wizards are now 2.5 games back games back of the Celtics for the No. 2 seed in the east and just 1/2-game ahead of the Raptors. They can't afford to lose at home and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder here after losing to the Celtics last time out.
The other big key here is the Hawks are slumping right now and it's because of injuries. Atlanta is minus it's best player in Paul Millsap and also without top reserve Kent Bazemore. Last time these two played the Wizards won 112-86 in Atlanta and Washington is a much better team at home (27-10). Wizards are 25-14 ATS in their last 39 home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. Hawks are just 3-11 ATS against division opponents.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton +112 over ANAHEIM
OT included. The Oilers have a +23 goal differential (eighth in the league) this season while the Ducks are +8. Edmonton is 11th in the league in goals scored (209), the Ducks are 20th (186). Edmonton is coming off four wins in a row and figure to bring a ton of momentum and confidence into this one. Edmonton is 25-10-6 against the West this year and 14-4-3 against the Pacific Division. If we’re looking at goaltenders, well, Cam Talbot hasn’t allowed a goal in over 140 minutes while Ducks’ #1 John Gibson is still out so Jonathan Bernier is in goal again. Bernier has been tremendous the past few games but given the choice of who to trust more, we would choose Talbot 100% of the time because the proof is in the pudding. Talbot is a true #1 with outstanding career marks in GAA and save % while Bernier’s numbers are slightly above average.
These two clubs are battling each other for position and while postseason appearances are not on the line, home ice is, as they are tied with 87 points each. Overall, Edmonton looks well-equipped to keep rolling. With the addition of David Desharnais, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been able to stay in top-six territory, and Mark Letestu has played well enough to balance out the fourth line.The Oilers are deep up the middle, they have great goaltending and they have star power. They also have one of the best players in the world on their side. We can break down more numbers but it’s not going to matter. What we’re after is a price on a team that has a good chance to win and the Oilers fit the bill. This team is ready no matter who the opposition is, period.
SPORTS WAGERS
Illinois +145 over UCF
The Central Florida Knights came all the way back from 18 down against Illinois State on Monday to advance to this round. Illinois State was not only the #1 seed in its region but the Redbirds were also at home, thus making the Knights comeback even more impressive. However, let’s not ignore that the Knights were down by 18. UCF was also down 52-36 against SMU in another very important game recently. The Knights now go from a 5-point dog against a Missouri Valley team to a 3½-point choice against a better Big-10 team practically overnight. That is incorrect. While there are some things we like about UCF, they are not the better team here and there is a very good chance of a letdown after that unlikely rally against Illinois State on Monday. Central Florida is playing with fire and they are likely about to be burned.
Despite head coach John Groce getting fired on March 11th, the Illini have shown their true character by winning back-to-back games in the NIT. Associate head coach Jamall Walker was named interim coach and the team has responded in a big way. Illinois closed the game against Boise State on Monday on a 22-7 run and will now battle for a trip to Madison Square Garden and the NIT semi-finals. There are so many good things surrounding the Illini. New head coach Brad Underwood is already hard at work on keeping the top 15 recruiting class Groce signed before his dismissal. Four-star point guard Trent Frazier has already recommitted andThe Fightin’ Illini have their eyes on a NIT Championship. The team is now playing with a unified purpose. Illinois has wins this season over Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern and VCU among others. They also played Wisconsin, West Virginia, Florida State, Indiana, Minnesota and Purdue among others. Illinois’ strength of schedule ranked 44th in the country while UCF’s out-of-conference schedule ranked 333rd. The Illini has an extremely motivated interim coach working here. The players responded with a 82-57 win over Valpo in the opener of this tournament and followed that up with a tidy 15-point win over Boise State. While the players have responded to their well-prepped coach, the market has not responded to Illinois being a competitive Big-10 team and that instantly prompts us to step in and play the dog to win this one outright.
Utah Valley +4 over WYOMING
The Utah Valley Wolverines are making some noise this post season after winning its program’s first games in a national tournament ever. We highlighted both the Big Dance and the NIT so far but there's another national tournament with much different stakes. Like the NCAA and NIT tournaments, the CBI does invite its teams to participate. The catch? How about a $50,000 entry fee just to participate. While the CBI isn't the Big Dance or even the NIT, for a program like the Wolverines this tournament is a big deal while the entry fee is nothing to sneeze at for these smaller programs. The Wolverines have won six of their last seven games with their only defeat coming in the WAC Tournament semi-finals to #1 seed Bakersfield. The loss was nothing to be ashamed of, as the Wolverines went toe-to-toe with the Roadrunners before dropping an 81-80 decision in the 4th overtime period. Utah Valley has been a tough out by going 4-0 against the spread in its last four games. The Wolverines were a 4½-point pooch in both of their previous CBI Tournament games but the market continues to overlook them. That provides us this opportunity.
While the Cowboys of Wyoming are no stranger to this tournament, the CBI was not likely their ultimate postseason destination. Wyoming is coming off a conference championship and NCAA Tournament appearance in 2015 and after a taste of the big time, paying to play in the postseason wasn’t exactly Plan A or Plan B. This is the Pokes fifth appearance in the CBI and this semi-final is the furthest they've ever been. Like many teams in college basketball, Wyoming lives and dies by the 3-point shot. The Cowboys are sixth in the nation in attempts from beyond the arc and if those triples aren’t falling, there is a propensity for falling way behind. This game will be played at the Cowboys home arena in Laramie, but that actually works in our favor because it inflates the number even more. The regular season becomes an afterthought after the postseason tournaments start, but it’s hard to ignore the way the Cowboys finished the year. Wyoming lost five of its last seven games to close out the season including an embarrassing 83-68 defeat at the hands of Air Force as a 4½-point favorite in the first round of the Mountain West Tourney. The Wyoming Cowboys are a weak team with some very disturbing losses this year and figure to be the second most motivated team here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Puerto Rico Open
There are two events this week and we’re choosing to wager on this one over the WGC Dell Match Play simply because the Puerto Rico Open provides better opportunities. At this event, we don’t have to overcome McIlroy, Spieth, DJ, Jason Day or Matsuyama among others. At this event, the favorite is Bryan Wesley at 16-1 and while he surely can win, we like this field better for the chances of a longshot to take home the silverware. In other words, it’s not the deepest field you’ll ever see.
This is the week in the calendar where the PGA Tour stats team tends to go on vacation, as no deep stats are recorded for this event, or the Match Play for that matter. What we do know is that the host venue, the Coco Beach Golf & Country Club in Rio Grande is a rather large course and Puerto Rico typically is windy at this time of year. That sets the scene nicely for the weekend ahead, beginning on Thursday.
Coco Beach offers a unique challenge to the players, but with winning scores ranging from Tony Finau’s -12 a year ago to Chesson Hadley’s -21 in 2014, it is clear that this 7,506 yard Par 72 stretch can be tamed. The reasons for that are obvious. Expansive landing areas off the tee, and larger than the norm greens enable even wayward players to stay in the short stuff, and as we saw with many past champions at this event, doing that is essential here. The greens, which are made up of the SeaDwarf Paspalum grass usually found in exotic climes (think the OHL Classic at El Camaleon and the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpar), run at only around 10.5 on the stimp, and with rain forecast all week, these are likely to be even slower than normal. So basically we’re looking at a birdie-fest shootout. Keep your ball on the fairway, hit greens (as close to the pin as possible) and you should shoot low enough to contend. It’s that simple.
With wet conditions expected, giving it a thump off the tee won’t hurt and it was no surprise to see the reigning champ rank 18th for Total Driving in his winning effort. Coco Beach is a Par 72 and so there are four Par 5s to work with, and even allowing for a lack of roll on the fairways, these appear to be surmountable holes (Finau played them to a -7 of his -12 last time out). Thus, this week’s notes are rather sweet and simple: we need good drivers offering length and accuracy, decent Green in Regulation (GIR) numbers – and Proximity to Hole is a bonus on the slow greens – and somebody who can putt their way to victory because you don’t win any tournament unless you go well with the short stick.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:
Harold Varner III 43-1
HVIII has already entered the winner’s circle this season after triumphing in the Australian PGA Championship in December and that is just reward for a young player who has worked hard on his game in the past year. His results on the main PGA TOUR this term aren’t all that impressive – you have to go back to October for his best return of T15 at the Safeway Open – but he played nicely enough at Bay Hill last time out in a T34 return, which was rather hampered by a closing round of 77. In tough conditions at the Arnold Palmer, Varner hit 68% of fairways and 66% of greens, playing the Par 5s in -6 and those numbers will stand him in excellent stead this week. His Key Stats include ranking 26th on Tour in Shots Gained off the Tee, 32nd in Total Driving and 65th in Total Birdies (risking 0.2 units to win 8.6 units).
Head-to-head matchup: 72 Hole Match Betting at Bet365
Varner -110 over Tringale (Risking 1.1 units to win 1)
Trey Mullinax 90-1
We were surprised to see Mullinax available at such a charitable price this week because his game looks tailor-made for Coco Beach. In easier conditions, his penchant for a bogey or two will hopefully be lessened and that will enable the young star to make the most of his prodigious scoring: he ranks 41st for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and 33rd for Par 5. He birdies one in every four holes on average, and so if he can cut out the bogeys, there’s no reason Mullinax cannot mix it with the best in Puerto Rico. Mullinax has missed the cut in his two starts but that has him off the radar (for all you Fantasy Players). Over three straight events back in October, Mullinax finished T22 at -10 at the Safeway Open, T57 at -3 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and T36 at -9 at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He’s also shot -3, -3, -4, -6 and -7 over his last five starts in Par 5’s. If he’s in form and not messing up the Par 4’s, he’ll be in the mix on Sunday. His 35th in Putting Average ranking figures to serve him well too (risking 0.2 units to win 18).
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no head-to-head matchups available for Mullinax.
John Peterson 70-1
It’s generally boom or bust for Peterson, who tends to do very nicely (T15 at the OHL Classic, T12 at the Phoenix Open) or very badly (four missed cuts in seven starts). However, his showing in Mexico, where he shot 71-69-64-68 was what we hope to be a handy identifier of his excellence in these conditions, and while he’s only made two top-10s in 75 main tour starts, he has recorded a trio of second-place finishes on the Web.com Tour. Not the longest off the tee but still ranking a respectable 47th for Total Driving, the Texan peppers the greens (ranking 14th for GIR) and boasts a season-long stroke average of 3.98 on the Par 4s, so he should be able to fashion plenty of birdie-making opportunities in Puerto Rico. Add these rankings, Greens in Regulation – 14th, Proximity to Hole – 14th and Shots Gained Off-the-Tee – 27th and you can see why he’s peaked our interest. Lastly, Pinnacle Sportsbook has Peterson -155 over Chesson Hadley in the head-to-head matchups, which is pretty interesting when you consider that Hadley won this event in 2014 and shot -21. That tells us that the sharpest book on the planet has some interest in Peterson. (risking 0.2 units to win 14 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
Again, Pinnacle has Peterson -155 over Chesson Hadley but we’re not spotting -155 so we have to pass.
Seamus Power 55-1
You get the feeling that one or two Web.com Tour graduates are likely to be right there this weekend and perhaps this talented young Irishman could be one to get into the mix. He’s been consistently good this season (eight cuts made of 11) without making a real breakthrough, but eye-catching enough was his T28 at the OHL Classic, at which he fired three rounds in the 60s. He’s a hell of a putter too, ranking 38th on tour for Total Putting, and plays the Par 5s superbly well (16th for Par 5: Birdie or Better Leaders). One of the reason’s he’s been so good on Par 5’s is that he ranks 28th on Tour in Driving Average, which figures to set him up for plenty of birdies at this track (risking 0.2 units to win 11)
Head-to-head matchup:
S. Power -106 over N. Taylor (risking 1.06 units to win 1)
Brandon Hagy 45-1
He might be a young whippersnapper – Hagy turned 26 on Tuesday – but he already has a top-20 at Coco Beach to his name in his sole visit; T16 in 2015. That was a nice sighter for a player that has come on leaps and bounds this term, making seven out of 10 cuts with a trio of impressive showings to his name in his last three starts: T33 at Pebble Beach, T21 at the Honda Classic, and T28 last week at Bay Hill. Those were all in good company, so in a thinner field here, Hagy is extremely underpriced and ready to pop. He ranks 4th for Driving Distance, 30th for Shots Gained Off-the-Tee and 54th for Par 5: Birdie or Better Leaders (risking 0.2 units to win 9).
Head-to-head matchup:
Head-to-head matchup:
B. Hagy +111 over JJ Spaun (risking 1 unit)
Wunderdog
Indiana vs. Boston
Pick: Indiana +7.5
The Boston Celtics have closed to within two games of the Cleveland Cavaliers for the top seed in the NBA Eastern Conference playoffs. The Pacers have moved to the sixth position at 36-34. These teams have met twice with Boston taking both games in Indiana before the calendar turned 2017. The Celtics have had trouble with Indiana at home over the years at just 26-22 SU. Just 18 of those games have seen a winning margin of eight points or more, and just four of those coming in the last six years. We are also seeing a double-revenge situation in this one, and I think this game will be a lot closer than it looks. Boston has played 47 of their 71 games to within 10 points either way, and always seems to be in a dog fight.
Jack Jones
Cavs vs. Nuggets
Play: Cavs -2½
The Cleveland Cavaliers are back healthy now with the trio of Lebron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. JR Smith also recently returned to the lineup. Now they've had two days off since beating the Lakers on Sunday, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight against the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets are starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the playoffs, losing back-to-back heartbreakers to the Rockets by 4 at home and by 1 on the road. It will be tough for them to recover in time to face a team the caliber of the Cavaliers tonight.
The Cavs have had the Nuggets' number, going 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. They won 125-109 in their first meeting this season, and 124-91 in their final meeting last season as well. Cleveland is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five trips to Denver.
Denver is 18-34 ATS in its last 52 home games off a road game. The Cavaliers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 2 days rest. The Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Wednesday games.
John Martin
Hornets vs. Magic
Play: Hornets -5
The Charlotte Hornets are coming off back-to-back wins over the Wizards and Hawks, two fellow playoff teams. They are trying to stay alive in the playoff race. Now they'll be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days here tonight. The Magic are 26-45 on the season and simply playing out the string. The Hornets thumped the Magic 121-81 earlier this month to continue their domination in this series. Charlotte is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Orlando, winning by 40, 19, 21, 14, 8 and 4 points, respectively.
Black Widow
Hornets vs. Magic
Play:Hornets -5.5
Bets against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orlando) revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against an opponent that's off a home win by 10 points or more are 31-6 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Charlotte has won 6 straight meetings with Orlando, including a 40-point blowout earlier this month.
Dave Price
Illinois +3.5
The Illinois Fighting Illini are a senior-laden team, so they are taking the NIT seriously knowing that these will be their last games for the majority of their top players. That extra motivation has led to a dominant NIT run thus far, beating Valpo 82-57 and Boise State 71-56. UCF has been fortunate to get this far, winning by 5 over Colorado and coming back from 20 down to beat Illinois State by 1. Illinois is 12-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days this season. The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Jack Brayman
Off my free winner on the San Antonio Spurs last night, I'm siding with the Wyoming Cowboys against Utah Valley in CBI semifinal action.
I won't lie, there isn't much to know about Utah Valley, and the Cowboys bowed out of the Mountain West tournament in a rather ugly game that saw them fall behind Air Force 25-0 over the first 9 minutes.
But what I do know is the Cowboys have received new life in this event, and look like the scrappy Pokes I've become used to watching over the years. And I can tell you Laramie is no fun place to play - unless you're wearing brown and gold - and Utah Valley could struggle in hostile territory.
The Cowboys have one of the best fan following, so I know they're going to have a rowdy crowd playing the sixth man role in the stands.
Wyoming will keep Utah Valley at arm's length in this one, then pull away late for the cover, with free throws inside the final two minutes.
5* WYOMING
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Chicago Bulls, home underdogs to the Detroit Pistons tonight. And I'm playing this one on the moneyline, as I think the Bulls should win this outright.
Both are out of playoff position in the Eastern Conference, so in reality, it's all about playing for pride. And since these are Central Division rivals, I think it makes sense to assume we could see the best from both teams.
The Bulls, who are mired in a 2-8 slide, have to be stinging after blowing a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead in a 122-120 overtime loss to the Toronto Raptors last night.
Meanwhile, the Pistons saw their fourth-quarter rally fall short against the Brooklyn Nets in a 98-96 loss, a rough start to this four-game road trip. Detroit has lost four of five now.
I'll take a shot with the Bulls.
3* BULLS
Brad Wilton
Wednesday comp play is Philadelphia plus the double-digits at Oklahoma City.
The Sixers did cover at home way back in October in the first meeting of the season against the Thunder, and they have now covered in the last pair of meetings, and 4 of the last 5 overall despite losing all 5 straight up.
The cover spree doesn't stop there though, as Philly enters play tonight having covered in each of their last 7 games played, and since February 8th, the 76ers are 16-3 against the spread!
This is a "sandwich" spot for OKC, as they are fresh off another loss to the hated Warriors, and do have a game in Houston up next on Sunday.
The Thunder take out some of their frustrations from Monday's home loss to Golden State on Philadelphia tonight, but they are unable to do so by the required impost.
Sixers to cover another.
4* PHILADELPHIA
Eric Schroeder
After hitting the two-time defending Western Conference champion Golden State Warriors last night as my free winner, I'm rolling with the defending NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers with my free play, as they'll denounce the Denver Nuggets tonight in the Mile High City.
While the Nuggets are clinging to their playoff hopes, the Cavs are clinging to their Eastern Conference lead. Both have something to play for.
And after two losses in a home-and-home set with the Houston Rockets, the Nuggets are going to struggle in hosting the Cavaliers, whose last game was a Sunday win at the Los Angeles Lakers.
Kyle Korver is expected to be back with Cleveland, as he went through practice yesterday, and could play tonight after missing more than two weeks with a sore left foot.
Add in the motivation from the commissioner's memp demanding team owners being more involved in decisions to rest star players for games after LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love didn't play in Saturday night against the Clippers in a nationally broadcast game, a week after Golden State and San Antonio did the same thing, and something tells me the Cavaliers will go off tonight.
Take the road chalk here.
5* CAVALIERS
John Ryan
Hawks vs. Wizards
Play: Hawks +7½
5* graded play on Atlanta (757) as they take on Washington in NBA action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game.
Given the favorable projections we like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 4* play on the line and a 1* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 4* wager using the line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Atlanta is a nice 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) when they attempt 23 to 28 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons.
Atlanta has been money burners for their backers for an extended stretch of games. However, they fall into a very positive a situation tonight. Many times too, struggling teams, do far better when they get away from the home court pressure and media constantly asking them what is wrong with the team. So, teams that have failed to cover in 12 or more of the last 15 games and allowed 50% or higher shooting in their last game and now playing on the road are 25-15 ATS since 1995. In 2016, these situations are a perfect 2-0 ATS with the Bucks favored by a single point blowing out Phoenix 137-112 on February 4 and then the Bucks again defeating the Pacers as 6-point road dogs 116-110 February 11. Over the last 3 seasons, this rare, but powerful situation is 4-1 ATS for 80% winners.