Free Picks for Wednesday, March 29th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
Flames -135
Flames -1.5 +230
Edmonton was in position to clinch a playoff spot at home against the Kings on Tuesday night and did exactly that with a 2-1 win that really wasn't as close as the score indicated.
Now the very next night and the Kings are again on the road against a team that can clinch its playoff spot. This time it's Calgary.
I know the Kings are still talking the talk, but it seems pretty hollow at this point. If you watched the third period last night, LA was really dragging and I think it only gets worse tonight.
The Flames are very fired up to celebrate at home and I think Calgary has a legit shot to bury the Kings tonight. LA has lost five straight when playing with no rest and I really do believe they're a mentally defeated team at this juncture.
I'm going to play Calgary for one unit on the money line, and I will also gamble an additional half unit on the big payoff by spotting the -1.5 at a very healthy +230 return.
Scott Rickenbach
Blues vs. Coyotes
Play: Over 5
The Blues beat the Coyotes 4 to 1 in St Louis on Monday to extend their dominance in this series. However, I am not fond of laying big prices and their money line is steep in this match-up. I also hate to take them on the puck line and risk being frustrated if they win by just a single goal. That said, the "value way" to play this game in my opinion is the total because the Blues have scored an average of 4.44 goals per game in their last 9 meetings with the Coyotes. Simply put, they've had their number. Arizona did suffer a shutout in their most recent home game but, prior to that, had won 2 of 3 on home ice and averaged 3.33 goals in those 3 games. Look for the Coyotes to hang with the Blues tonight and the result, given St Louis long-term scoring prowess in this series, should be a high-scoring easy over. In 17 home games with a posted total of 5 goals or less this season, Arizona has had just 5 unders. In 48 games fitting those parameters the L3 seasons, the Coyotes have had just 16 unders. Odds are this one gets to 5 or more and I'll gladly lay the small price to have the over 5 goals in this one. The Blues have won 10 of their last 12 games and have averaged 3.5 goals per game in the 10 victories.
Ray Monohan
Blackhawks vs. Penguins
Play: Under 6
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Chicago Blackhawks and the Pittsburgh Penguins face off Wednesday night.
The O/U is at six which is high for a hockey game, and a great value for you. When the Pens and the Hawks match up they seem to be physical games with not a a whole lot of scoring happening.
In the last six games there hasn't been more then five goals scored. I don't see that changing on Wednesday night. I expect a tight low scoring game.
Some trends to note. Under is 4-1 for the Penguins when allow five or more goals the previous game. Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in Pittsburgh. Under is 12-3-1 in last 16 meetings.
Both goaltenders are going to be great in this game.
Scott Spreitzer
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Play: Atlanta -1
Both teams are playing in the second of back-to-back nights and both teams own strong ATS records in this spot. However, Philadelphia is off a five-game, nine-day road trip, returning home without a night off, while the Hawks just snapped a seven game losing streak and we believe they're undervalued here even with Paul Millsap sidelined. In fact, as most already know, both teams have their share of injuries. But the Hawks have a difference maker tonight in Dwight Howard, who should provide the the spark needed in tonight's matchup. Howard has 23 points & 26 rebounds, making 71% of his shots in Atlanta's last two games against Philly. I suspect Howard will get more looks at the basket tonight, due in part to the potential matchups caused by the injury situations. Atlanta has owned this series of late, winning and covering six in a row. We expect more of the same tonight.
Jesse Schule
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Play: Atlanta -1
The Atlanta Hawks finally snapped a seven game losing streak with a 95-91 home win over Phoenix. It was their eighth consecutive game failing to score over 100 points, but they turned up the heat defensively. The Hawks are banged up, missing leading scorer Paul Millsap and forwards Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha. While they still sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings, eighth place Miami is just two games back. Atlanta can't afford to keep on losing, and I expect them to play inspired basketball coming off last night's win. The Sixers have their own injury concerns, and this late in the season they may be more focused on the future than the present. The Hawks have won six straight versus Philly, covering the spread in all of those wins.
Rob Vinciletti
Hornets vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -7
Toronto has covered 5 of 6 at home after scoring 120 or more at home last out. Charlotte has failed to cover 13 of 16 vs Atlantic Division teams and lost at home last night. Road teams with no rest in Toronto are 1-4 ats if off a home spread loss. Rested home favorites that covered the spread by 7 or more as a 5 or more points home favorite, scoring and allowing 110 or more like the Raptors have covered 88% long term vs an opponent off a home game. Look for Toronto to get the win and cover.
Sean Murphy
Blackhawks vs. Penguins
Play: Under 6
I'll back the 'under' in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night, despite the fact that the Blackhawks are giving up goals in bunches right now and the Pens are one of the best 'over' bets in the league. I believe that's giving us an inflated total to work with, noting that each of the last six meetings in this series have totaled five goals or less.
The Blackhawks need to tighten things up defensively after giving up 11 goals in regulation time in two games in Florida. Prior to that they had allowed two goals or less in five of their previous seven contests.
Pittsburgh has been decimated by injuries and has found the going a little tougher lately, dropping three games in a row, and scoring only six goals in the process. Like the 'Hawks, the Pens will be looking to sharpen things up defensively after allowing nine goals in regulation time in their last two games.
Bryan Leonard
Heat vs. Knicks
Play: Heat -3
The Heat have won 9 of the last 11 meetings in this series, and enter here with revenge for a 114-103 loss the last time in this building. Miami is playing terrific ball and the Knicks are just playing our another disappointing season. While Miami is off a physical game last night in Detroit and the Knicks are rested, we still prefer to go against a New York team on a 14-36 SU run.
Dustin Hawkins
Hornets vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -6½
Play on a home favorite like the Raptors when after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. (37-14 since 1996.) (72.5%).Charlotte is only 3-15 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season.
Art Aronson
Hornets vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -6½
The season is winding down and Charlotte will surely be tired here in the second game of its back-to-back scenario, last night losing 118-108 at home to Milwaukee, a final score which wasn’t entirely indicative of how lop-sided this game was at times. Regardless, we think the disheartned Hornets will come out flat here and note that they’ve really struggled in this spot for bettors already, going just 4-8 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days. Toronto is now in a dog fight with the Cavs and the Celtics for top spot in the East and comes into this one with a ton of momentum, having won six straight (and note that the Raptors are already 15-7 ATS this season after a victory by ten points or more). Should be a blowout, consider laying the points on TORONTO tonight.
Jim Feist
Heat at Knicks
Pick: Under
Miami has had it going on defense the last two months, now up to #5 in the NBA in points allowed. The Under is 9-3 in the Heat's last 12 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. New York shows up at home to play some defense, 6-1 under the total at home. The Under is 9-2-1 in the Knicks last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. And when these rivals clash the Under is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings at New York.
Power Sports
Wizards at Clippers
Pick: Under
Last night's Wizards game just snuck Over the total on a meaningless Kelly Oubre Jr jumper in the final 30 seconds. That capped an explosive 37-13 fourth quarter and the franchise's first division title of any kind since 1979! They stay in LA tonight, but rather than the Lakers, it's the Clippers who form the opposition tonight. This is a much better defensive foe here (Lakers are last in defensive efficiency) and I can see the Wiz being somewhat "out of gas" after last night's frantic finish.
The Clippers have held their last three opponents all below 100 points. You don't see that too often anymore. Sadly though, they've lost two of the three games. Even worse is that the losses came to Dallas and Sacramento. Something I did not realize is that the Under is 77-48 in all Clippers' home games the past three seasons. Tonight's total is well above the total PPG average for the Clips this season. The same holds true for Washington as well.
Of course, I often make the claim that teams are undervalued in the second game of a back to back. What hurts the Wizards here, however, is they actually needed to come from behind in the fourth quarter to defeat the lowly Lakers. As a road dog, their scoring average dips down to 105.1 PPG. When these teams met in D.C. back in December, they shot lights out (including 10 of 19 from three-point range). I don't anticipate that happening here.
Andrew Gold
Thunder vs. Magic
Play: Thunder -6
I think people are forgetting the Thunder still have a lot to play for here. They are in a weird spot right now trying to get the 5 seed but also trying to avoid being the 7 seed. Their massive come back over the Mavs last game out is something I believe they will build on. The Magic are still getting some respect because of 3 recent wins, but those were against the Sixers, Suns and Pistons. The Thunder take care of business playing weaker teams, they are 12-3 ATS L15 games vs a team with a winning % below .400.
Marc Lawrence
Golden St at San Antonio
Play: Golden St +4½
Edges - Warriors: 10-2 SUATS with same season double loss revenge the last five years, including 6-0 SUATS away and 4-0 SUATS as a dog… Spurs: 1-7 ATS home before Oklahoma City… With the Spurs off a 29-point romp over the defending champion Cavaliers, and having a revenge game with the Thunder on deck, we recommend a 1* play on Golden State.