Teddy Davis
Hornets vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -6
I lost last night backing the Hornets and that was a very disappointing game. To me their season was on the line and they failed in every aspect. They gave up open 3 after open 3 and let the Bucks shoot over 70% in the first half. They are 3 games out of the 8th spot with 8 games remaining practically eliminated if you ask me. The Raptors are cruising right now winning 6 straight and 7 of their last 8. They are still only one game back of the Wizards for the 3 seed. I see Toronto taking it to the Hornets tonight
Will Rogers
Golden St vs. San Antonio
Pick: Over 208.5
The set-up: The Warriors rested their key players the last time they were in San Antonio (Mar. 11) and caught 'hell.' However, after last night's 113-106 win at Houston, Golden State has gone 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS since losing badly that night in San Antonio. The Warriors will be back in San Antonio tonight and while they are 0-2 vs. the Spurs this season, they own a 60-14 record, 2 1/2 games better than San Antonio's 57-16 mark. The Spurs also come in playing well (so what else is new?), having won five in a row.
Golden State: Steve Kerr drew the ire of the league and ABC officials when he didn't play guards Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, forward Draymond Green and swingman Andre Iguodala in Golden State's last trip to San Antonio but has said, "The guys are good to go," while revealing his plans to reporters after the win over Houston. Stephen Curry (24.9-4.5-6.5) had 32 points and 10 rebounds to lead the Warriors last night, while Klay Thompson (22,3) and Draymond Green (10.4-8.1-7.1) added 25 and 19 points. It was the 11th time this season that both Curry and Thompson scored at least 25 points in the same game. The Warriors never trailed on Tuesday, setting the pace by building a 17-point lead at the end of the first quarter and leading by as many as 22 points.
San Antonio: Let's not forget that San Antonio was without its two best players, Kawhi Leonard (26.0 & 5.9) and LaMarcus Aldridge (17.6 & 7.5) were out with injuries, in that Mar. 11 rout of the Warriors. San Antonio comes into this showdown with the Warriors on the heels of a dominating 103-74 victory over defending league champion Cleveland on Monday. Kawhi Leonard, surely a legitimate MVP candidate, had 25 points in the win despite sitting out all but the first minute of the fourth quarter.
The pick: San Antonio is 6-0 against the league's three other teams (Golden State, Boston and Cleveland) that can earn conference titles plus the Spurs have prevailed in 34 of their last 35 home games against the Warriors, with Golden State's win coming last season to end a 33-game slide. That said, I'm not comfortable going against the Warriors as an underdog. Here's something that may have slipped "under the radar." While the Warriors rank 1st in scoring (115.9 PPG) and 1st in shooting (49.4%), Golden State has gone "under" in 11 straight games. Enough is enough.
Dave Essler
UMBC / Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Over 157
This one is just like the total we played on Monday in that if it looks like a rose, smells like a rose, and pricks like a rose, it's probably a rose. UMBC plays fast and has scored at least 80 points in all three of their post season games, all at home. So, I thought why not just take them? I might, but we're dealing with a CC team that played a great non-conference schedule, scores inside, and gets to the line. We know about the rule changes and in these small games the refs tend to think pretty highly of themselves. UMBC's defense just isn't any good. Their offense doesn't turn the ball over and their defense doesn't create many, so more meaningful possessions for sure. They DO shoot well from the line. CC WILL run off of three point misses - it is SUPPOSED to be a close game (FT's late) - and, and, and - gotta do it. If it's NOT a great scoring 1H there could be a 2H opp, which is one reason I'm betting it smaller.
Scott Rickenbach
Milwaukee at Boston
Play: Boston -8
The Bucks are off of a rather "crazy" road win at Charlotte last night as Milwaukee simply shot lights out including hitting a ridiculous percentage of their threes. Note that the Hornets played a clean game with only 4 team turnovers and the Bucks scored just 2 fast break points in the game. In other words Milwaukee certainly wasn't forcing turnovers nor scoring in transition. But the fact is that its hard to lose a game when your team hits 14 of 30 three pointers plus hits 73% from inside the arc and that what Milwaukee did last night. Needless to say everything was falling the Bucks way last night and I feel that Boston may remain a little under-valued tonight as a result. After all, the Celtics are currently holding the top record in the Eastern Conference and they are at home and rested with only a bad Orlando team on deck. Boston has won 7 of its last 8 games and are 11-4 ATS against Central Division opponents this season. The Bucks were on a 3-5 ATS skid before last night's insane shooting performance and Milwaukee had been held under 44.4% from the field in 5 of their last 6 games before the big win at Charlotte yesterday. The Bucks are 4-11 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and I look for Milwaukee to drop to 6-11 ATS on the season when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Celtics have won 3 straight meetings with the Bucks including a blowout win by 15 the last time they hosted Milwaukee.
Brandon Lee
Hornets vs. Raptors
Play: Hornets +6
It will be tough for anyone to back Charlotte in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set off an ugly 10-point home loss to the Bucks against a Raptors team that has won 6 straight. Toronto clinched a playoff spot recently and it can be difficult for teams to keep their focus after securing a spot, especially for a team like the Raptors who are locked into a Top 4 seed (7 games up on 5th place Atlanta). The Hornets simply didn't have it last night against Milwaukee and I believe it's going to have them coming out with a chip on their shoulder tonight. Charlotte has a lot more to play for in this one and catching a good number.
John Martin
Hawks vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +2
The Atlanta Hawks are 1-8 without Paul Millsap this season. Their only win came last night 95-91 as 9.5-point favorites over the Phoenix Suns, who were playing basically backups across the board as they were without Bledsoe, Knight, Booker and Chandler. Now they'll be without Millsap again tonight and shouldn't be favored on the road over the 76ers, who are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The 76ers are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 home games. Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight when playing on 0 days rest.
Chip Chirimbes
Hornets vs. Raptors
Play: Hornets +6.5
Toronto seems to have 'righted-the-ship' as they have posted six straight wins matching their longest winning streak of the season. With the recent decline of the Cavaliers play the Raptors find themselves just 2.5-games behind second-place in the East. The Raptors have won the last four meetings but Charlotte is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings and 12-4 ATS in Toronto.
Doc's Sports
Thunder vs. Magic
Play:Thunder -5½
OKC has had a real tough schedule lately, but they have won the games they were supposed to and this is a game they should win and cover tonight. This Magic team was playing strong defense to start the season but they have barely seemed to care lately and they have allowed 109 or more in seven of their last eight games. That does not bode well for their chances tonight against an OKC team that can be very potent on offense. We think the Thunder can pick their score tonight and we don’t see the Orlando offense being able to keep up. OKC has a couple recent losses against top Western Conference teams and as a result they won’t take this game lightly and we think there is a very good chance that this will be a 10+-point blowout.
Teddy Covers
Hornets vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -5½
My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting against the Hornets last night. There’s little reason to think that Charlotte will be significantly more competitive as they step up in class against a focused foe on the second night of back-2-backs tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up, with the numbers edited slightly to reflect current realities:
“Charlotte was a playoff team last year, finishing with 48 wins and the #6 seed. The markets still remember and respect that team, in some ways overshadowing the 33-41 squad from this year in the betting world. The Hornets did their best to blow a 25 point second half lead against a Suns team playing on the second night of back-2-backs in their last game, on the heels of a defensive no-show against the Cavs in their previous contest. And the betting markets are offering us legitimate value with wiseguy steam showing for Charlotte in early betting action today.”
There’s been steam on Charlotte again today, pushing the line down to -5.5 as I write this. That Hornets $$ has come despite their no-show at home last night, allowing Milwaukee to control the flow throughout in a double digit home loss. And make no mistake about it – the Raptors are coming to play tonight!
Toronto head coach Dwane Casey following the Raptors lethargic win over Orlando on Monday: "It was brother-in-law basketball. We'll take the win, but we can't be happy with our defensive performance, trading baskets like that. We have bigger goals in mind and, if we intend on achieving them, we have to have a better mindset than we had tonight defensively….that's our challenge -- to have that mindset every game, not just when our backs are against the wall. But it has to be a habit, and (Monday) we took a step back.” Expect a step forward here!
Jack Jones
Sacramento at Utah
Play: Utah -7½
The Utah Jazz are trying to hang on to the No. 4 seed in the West to earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They can't afford to lose to a team the caliber of the Sacramento Kings tonight, and I look for them to take care of business in blowout fashion.
The Kings are primed for a letdown here after back-to-back upset home wins over the Clippers and Grizzlies by a combined two points. But now they'll be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, while the Jazz will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. I'll side with the fresher team tonight as well.
Bets against home underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, with a losing record are 115-63 (64.6%) ATS since 1996. Alec Burks and George Hill are both expected to play tonight for the Jazz, and Gordon Hayward could be making his return to the lineup as well to give them a boost.
Jimmy Boyd
Heat vs. Knicks
Play: Heat -3
I like the value here with Miami as a short road favorite against the the Knicks. I know the Heat are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but I believe it's clearly been factored into this line already. More than anything, I just don't trust this Knicks team with zero to play for. They are getting some love here off a 14-point home win against the Pistons, but prior to that they had lost 5 straight and were a mere 2-10 over their last 12 overall. The other key here is that Miami can't afford to take a night off. The Heat are just 1-game up on the Bulls for the final playoff spot in the east. Miami has won 6 of the last 8 meetings in the series, including each of the last 4 trips to New York. Heat are also a dominant 11-2 ATS this season when playing on back-to-back days.
SPORTS WAGERS
CALGARY -½ +125 over Los Angeles
Regulation only. The Kings did not want the Oilers to clinch a playoff spot on their watch last night but that’s precisely what happened in another Los Angeles defeat. The 2-1 final was somewhat flattering to the Kings, as Edmonton scored 49 seconds in but the goal was disallowed and they also scored early in the third period but that goal was also disallowed. The Oilers put the puck in the net four times but were only credited with two goals. If L.A. wasn’t officially eliminated before last night, they are dead in the water now. The Kings have lost four of their last five games and scored three goals combined in those four losses. 80-year-old Jerome Iginla was their only goal scorer last night. The Kings have scored two goals or less in seven of their past eight games. They are 5-9 in the tail end of back-to-backs this year but those previous ones came at a time when they meant something. The reality of not being in the playoffs surely will have sunk in by the time the puck drops here and after working so hard all season with no payoff for the hard work, L.A., could easily show up in this one with little or no intensity.
Meanwhile, Calgary is going to the playoffs and they’re playing well. The Johnny Gaudreau/Micheal Ferland/Sean Monahan line was put together on February 21st and have played 15 tilts together since then (Ferland missed a pair of games last week due to illness). The Flames are 13-2-0 and the three have combined for 45 points over that span. Calgary has won 31 consecutive times when holding a lead after two periods. Calgary’s only loss this season when leading after 40 minutes came on October 15th when they still earned a point in a shootout loss. They are the only team in the NHL who have just a single loss when leading after the second frame and there’s a really good chance of them leading after one and two periods here when you consider that the Kings played last night and are so offensively challenged.
Win or lose, we have to trust that the right play here that holds all the value is the Flames in regulation. You see, since the introduction of 3-on-3 overtime at the start of the 2015-16 season, the Kings hold a league-best 23-6 record in the extra frame but we’re not going to allow our wager to come down to that. Flames in regulation is the call.
Pass NCAAB
SPORTS WAGERS
The Shell Houston Open
We’re just one week away from The Masters but first we have this intriguing warm-up event. Considered an entrée to Augusta’s main course, the Houston Open dates back to 1946 but for the past decade or so has taken on a more prominent position in the PGA TOUR schedule as The Masters’ support act. Dustin Johnson has decided not to take his place in the field at the Golf Course of Houston, and so instead a fine opportunity awaits others. Jordan Spieth, Texas born and bred, will be looking to build upon his runner’s up finish in this event back in 2015, while Jon Rahm and Rickie Fowler will be looking to continue their fine recent form but we’re looking for a longshot and this event provides opportunity. The distraction of The Masters seems to derail the big names in this event, with the last four winners – Jim Herman, J.B Holmes, D.A Points, and Matt Jones – not exactly being at the forefront of the sport.
This Houston test has been handpicked for its similarities with Augusta, so players can expect wider-than-average fairways and water in-play on more than half of the holes. Besides the wind and a hilarious amount of hazards, the repeated narrative that’ll get jammed down your throat this week is how the Golf Club of Houston is set up to mimic Augusta National and that’s why so many players love coming to this course. Now, some of that is true, but it’s only in specific areas. The fairways and limited rough just off said fairways and the putting surfaces are almost identical to what the field will see at The Masters. That’s really it, though. The greens are not only a different grass types, they get flatter than Earth the closer you get to the hole. This is the opposite of the undulating surfaces at Augusta.
The Bermuda greens will run at around 13 on the stimpmeter, so they are plenty fast enough. We’ve witnessed bombers win here in the past and more accurate types, so less attention should be paid to tee work here. Instead, focus on players with a penchant for hitting greens, as five of the last six champions have ranked in the top 10 for Green in Regulation (GIR).
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:
Nick Watney – 80-1
It’s always pleasing when an outstanding talent returns from a career-threatening injury and the gradual improvement in Nick Watney these past six months suggests there’s plenty of life left in this old dog. The upward curve in his form has delivered three T14 finishes in his last four starts, as he picks and chooses his events wisely and his closing 65 at the Honda Classic really was a sight to behold. The return of Watney is real. He's finished 14th, 28th, and 14th in his past three events, and is showing signs of the top-20 player he once was. The thing to love about Watney is his ball-striking has been getting progressively better and is back to being great ever since he returned from a long layoff. It’s easy to forget he’s a six-time PGA TOUR winner, and his impressive ball striking of late suggests a seventh is not beyond the realms of possibility (risking 0.2 units to win 16).
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no heads up match-ups for Watney so we are going to choose a different matchup here.
Jhonattan Vegas has The Masters on deck and this is likely an event/course he’ll use to hone his skills. Meanwhile, Peter Uihlein’s strong 2017 form transferred to the PGA Tour last week and his success there earned him a spot in this event. After the injury woes of 2016, Uihlein has bounced back in promising style this term, posting five top 20 finishes and there is no reason he can’t have another good event here, as he’ll very likely be the more focused of the two.
P. Uihlein +139 over J. Vegas (Risking 1 unit).
Jimmy Walker 60-1
We can only take so much from the WGC Match Play, such is the difference between golf’s two formats, but one lesson that we did learn was just how well Jimmy Walker is striking the ball. He went down 5&3 against Dustin Johnson but at one point in the match made five consecutive birdies, and anybody that clung on to DJ’s coattails last week can be considered in good form.
The Golf Club of Houston has been reasonably kind to him; he’s made five of the last six weekends here, with T19 and T24 his best figures, and three consecutive top-25s in his last trio of stroke-play starts suggests the last major winner of 2016 is muscling through the gears nicely in time for Augusta (risking 0.2 units to win 12)
Head-to-head matchup:
J. Walker +126 over R. Cabrera Bello (Risking 1 unit).
Charles Howell III 50-1
Given his undoubted ability, CH III simply doesn’t win enough events; that’s a fact. But a roll call of recent winners here lacking star quality – plus the confident nature with which Howell spoke at the Dell Match Play suggests that he is ready to get his hands on some silverware. He progressed from a really tough group at the Match Play that included the in-form Tyrrell Hatton, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, and Jeunghun Wang, and there was no disgrace in losing to a rampant John Rahm in the final 16. His form is incredible: 11 straight cuts made, with eight of those being top-20s. Like Tony Finau, it is only going to take something to click for Howell for him to become a regular winner on tour, because the quality of his game is exceptional. Dude is close (risking 0.2 units to win 10).
Head-to-head matchup: at Bet365 (72 hole match-up)
C. Howell III -110 over C, Hoffman (Risking 1.1 units to win 1).
Russell Henley 33-1
Henley has to go down as one of the PGA TOUR’s most consistent form horses; at some courses he does absolutely nothing, but at others he’s as good as anybody around. Look at his last three trips to this track since 2014: 5-4-7. You will struggle to find anybody who has mastered this Houston layout quite like the 27-year-old. A two-time PGA TOUR winner, Henley remains reliably chaotic when in contention, as his Saturday 75 at the Valspar Championship confirms, but pleasingly he has been in good form of late, as he’s made the weekend in eight of his last nine outings, with six of those being top-25 finishes. Given his course form, this is an event that we could easily see Henley winning, which is backed by his 12th on TOUR ranking in Total Driving, 19th ranking on TOUR in Shots Gained Putting and 20th ranking on Shots Gained Total (risking 0.2 units to win 6.6 units).
Head-to-head matchup: at Bet365 (72 hole match-up)
Henley 120 over Horschel (risking 1.2 units to win 1).
Bernd Wiesberger 70-1
Anybody who follows the European Tour closely will be gobsmacked by the Austrian’s inability to replicate his best form in co-sanctioned events. That said, he did make the cut at the WCG HSBC and Mexico tournaments, and enjoyed two morale-boosting wins in the Match Play before finishing second in his group to Alex Noren. That followed a run of top-five returns in two of the four events on the European Tour’s Desert Swing. Big Bernd is capable of racking up birdies like they are going out of style, so that makes him an extremely tempting sleeper play this week at a tournament he finished T27 in his only start here 12 months ago. His Average Drive Distance of 296 yards combined with his GIR of 76.39% makes Wiesberger a great value play this week in an event that he could easily be in the mix on Sunday (risking 0.2 units to win 14 units).
Head-to-head matchup: at Bet365 (72 hole match-up)
B. Wiesberger -125 over L. Westwood (risking 1.25 units to win 1).
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit Tigers Under 82½
On February 10, long time Tigers owner Mike Ilitch passed away. The Little Caesars entrepreneur left behind a large family, a robust history of business success, a smattering of important charitable works, and this Tigers team. Ilitch’s mark on the Tigers is indelible—so long after signing with the Tigers as a player back in 1952, he presided over the team’s complete inadequacy from 1992 to 2005, before bringing them back to relevance with a 2006 World Series run.
Since then, Ilitch desperately wanted to see his Tigers win a World Series and he was willing to spend big—both in cash and prospect capital—to see that dream realized. After years of doing just that without a ring, the 2017 Tigers are bringing back an aging, expensive, and top-heavy roster, a fitting tribute to their former owner. There is a great chance that we’ll look back on the 2016 Tigers and remember them as a requiem for not just a man, but an era in Tigers baseball—the last breaths of a window of serious World Series contention.
We’ll start with projections, where this franchise appears to be cruising for a disappointment to rival 2015, when they lost 87 games and wound up last in the AL Central after four straight division titles. This squad is currently projected to be around .500, which is “good” enough for third place in a depleted division. Despite carrying three or four future Hall of Famers on the projected 25-man roster, general manager Al Avila had a difficult choice between two paths this offseason: buy up more talent using the last of his assets and make one final crazy push for greatness, or sell the secondary pieces on the roster in the hopes of building something new and great a couple years down the line. Shockingly, Avila did ... nothing. He dealt away Cameron Maybin and acquired Mikie Mahtook to replace him. That’s the baseball equivalent of replacing the ugly dented side panel on your car with another, slightly newer dented side panel. (Avila also signed his son, Alex Avila, to return as the team’s backup catcher.) This Tigers’ team is stocked with high-priced, high-value players either in or past their primes, but also faced with a lack of depth and the imminent and ever-present peril faced by those in positions of power. Someday soon, one or more of these stars will dim or suffer serious injury, and the result will be even worse than the just-about-.500 team they project to be today.
There are a few pieces to like for the future in Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris, and Nick Castellanos but those players are far outnumbered by the aging, somewhat brittle veterans. Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera are capable of defying time and logic and remaining elite for a few more years but what happens if one or both have average years? Relying on Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, and Anibal Sanchez for this upcoming season might actually be relying on them for one year too many.
The great thing about the 2017 Tigers is that if all the principals stay healthy and effective, and they get a little bit of luck from Mahtook, Norris, or the bullpen, they have the ceiling of a contender. The much more likely not-so-great thing is that the former condition is getting less and less likely by the year. A stars-and-scrubs roster is great when you don’t have to play the scrubs. If this team must replace Miguel Cabrera for a month—with, say, Andrew Romine—it’s likely that they’ll lose many more games than they win. You can count on Verlander, Cabrera and Victor Martinez to all spend some time on the DL whether it’s 15 days or 50.
There’s no dynamite prospect or set of solid young talents on the way, so the team may finally be forced to sell off assets in order to rebuild with an eye on 2020. In other words, come trade deadline, expect the Tigers to sell off everyday players, thus, making the final six weeks of the season more of an uphill battle. Nothing in baseball is certain, but it appears that this franchise is following the path of the Phillies in the National League, where committing so much toward building a window and extending it forces the team into a dark bottoming-out period. If everything goes perfect for the Tigers, they will be hard pressed to win 83 games and beat us. Over/under win totals for the season do not take injuries into consideration because it is speculation. It is for that reason, we prefer going under as oppose to over. Aside from the inevitable injuries to the guys mentioned above, one has to expect other injuries to starters, relievers or everyday players. The Detroit Tigers are not deep.
An era in baseball has ended, or will end because everything ends. In poetry, the funeral song serves two purposes: to mourn and regret the past and to hope for the future. It is of sorrow and longing and presents everything as lost and gone or absent and future.” This sounds like a fitting metaphor for a Tigers season that’s unlikely to find sufficient value in the present and will reflect the owner who was, the former peaks of their players, and the longing desire to see a contender rise again. Mike Ilitch did many things, was many things, succeeded in many things. He also wanted to build a World Series winner, but didn’t. We can howl and lament over the reality that wasn’t. Perhaps he’ll eventually see his Tigers take a championship home—if so, from a much different viewpoint—but it probably won’t be for a while, and it certainly won’t be with this aging, fragile and very average team. The 2017 Detroit Tigers will finish under .500.
Eric Schroeder
Remember I told you to get used to hearing about the Furman Paladins over the next couple of weeks? Well tonight I love the total in their game against St. Peter's, and that's my premium play.
My freebie is on Furman plus the points.
The Paladins just won a school record-tying 23rd game, and now they're looking to snap it and move on in this tournament. I love this kid Kris Acox, who snagged six rebounds in the first five minutes of the last game, and finished with a team-leading 24 points and 10 rebounds.
It was his 10th double-double of the season.
With Acox's supporting cast, Furman will once again get plenty from its depth, and will to the win.
2* FURMAN