DAVE COKIN
MOREHEAD ST VS NEVADA
PLAY: NEVADA -4
The opening game of this best two of three series went to the wire with Morehead State prevailing by three on its home court. The scene shifts to Reno tonight and if there’s a third and final game, that will also be played at Lawlor.
The Wolf Pack fans are really enjoying this ride. This is the best it’s been for Nevada in quite a few years and there’s some real excitement in the northern part of the Silver State with what Eric Musselman has already accomplished.
The fact Nevada lost the first game by only three points has me believing they have a very good chance to win and cover tonight as moderate chalk. Marqueze Coleman had a pretty bad game for the Wolf Pack. Cameron Oliver was able to log only 22 minutes in the loss. Lyonell Gaines had the game of his life for Morehead State. The Eagles had a spectacular 17:5 assist to turnover ratio. All that, and the game just missed going to overtime on a missed Nevada three at the horn.
I have to think there’s some progression/regression to the norm from some of the things I just mentioned. I also see the home court edge being significant with a good crowd anticipated, and I expect them to be pretty raucous.
Let’s also throw the Reno altitude into the mix. People sometime forget that we’re talking right around 4500 feet here, and for those not used to it, that can be a bit taxing considering the energy that’s going to spent.
I don’t anticipate this being a blowout, but I see Nevada doing enough to get this one in the win column and forcing the rubber match on Friday. At -4, I’ll go ahead and make my play on the Wolf Pack.
Sleepyj
Nevada -4
We had Nevada in Game ! and we got the cover...This one now swings back home for the Wolfpack...-4 might look a bit steep, but I feel comfortable laying this number..I honestly favor Nevada in almost every stat category here at home....I would play this up to -6, but it won't hit that number tonight...Free throw line will be key for Nevada here and I feel they will cover this number later in the game with a few big shots and charity stripe points.
Rob Vinciletti
Clippers vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves +5½
Minnesota is rated as a 3* tonight as they qualify in a solid dog system. We are playing on non division home dogs with a total that is 200 or higher for teams that scored 120 or more points at home in their last game, but did not cover the spread, vs an opponent like the Clippers that were favored in their last game. These home dogs are 9-1 straight up since 1995. The Wolves are 5-0 to the spread if they were favored in their last game and have covered in 12 of the last 16 vs winning teams. They beat the Clippers in LA In the last meeting. We will play them with the points tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
New York vs. Dallas
Play:New York +5½
We had the Mavericks in their most recent game and cashed the ticket when they won and covered in Denver, but we're going against them tonight. The Mavs are in a tough spot, having done a lot of traveling of late, and they remain a banged-up squad with Deron Williams and Chandler Parsons still sidelined. The two combine for roughly 28 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and over 8 apg. Dallas is just three games over .500 at home and I expect this one to go right to the wire. The Knicks are still playing hard, holding their last six opponents to 99 ppg. Spread that out over the course of the season and they'd be ranked 7th in ppg allowed. I expect NY to keep this one close, holding the Mavs in check. Dallas has covered just one of their last six home games and we'll go against them tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Miami vs. Los Angeles
Play:Los Angeles +10
Edges - Lakers: 10-1 ATS non-conference dog off BB SUATS losses this season; and non-conference home teams off a loss of 40 or more points are 12-7-1 ATS, including 4-1 ATS from Game 60 out. Heat: 0-3 ATS off win versus non-conference foe off BB losses this season. With Los Angeles reeling off a 48-point loss in tis last game, and Miami off an 11-point home win,we recommend a 1* play on the Lakers.
Jim Feist
Knicks vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs -5
New York is on the road for the 10th time in 13 contests. The offense has mustered 93 and 91 the last two games, both losses, and the Knicks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. Dallas has plenty of offensive punch, No. 11 in the NBA in scoring. The Mavericks are home from a road trip ending with a 97-88 victory at the Denver Nuggets on Monday night. Reserve J.J. Barea scored 18 points and had 11 assists as Dallas moved into a virtual tie with Houston for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Atlantic and hold all the cards.
Jim Feist
Knicks vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs -5
New York is on the road for the 10th time in 13 contests. The offense has mustered 93 and 91 the last two games, both losses, and the Knicks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. Dallas has plenty of offensive punch, No. 11 in the NBA in scoring. The Mavericks are home from a road trip ending with a 97-88 victory at the Denver Nuggets on Monday night. Reserve J.J. Barea scored 18 points and had 11 assists as Dallas moved into a virtual tie with Houston for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Atlantic and hold all the cards.
Bob Harvey
Hawks vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -2
The Atlanta Hawks go for their fifth straight victory when they visit the Toronto Raptors. Toronto has taken the last three meetings by an average of 14.3 points.
The Hawks (45-30, 40-34 ATS) are one game ahead of the fourth-place Miami Heat and 1 1/2 up on the fifth-place Boston Celtics after knocking off the Chicago Bulls 102-100 on Monday to pick up their 14th win in the last 17 games. Atlanta will have to earn the No. 3 spot with a tough closing schedule that includes two games against the Raptors, two against the East-leading Cavaliers and one against the Celtics.
The Raptors (49-24, 39-34 ATS) have a five-game cushion on the Hawks for the No. 3 spot but have faltered of late, not exactly the type of momentum a team wants heading into the postseason. The Raptors were trounced 119-100 at home by the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday and have dropped three of their last four.
The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in the last seven series meetings and 4-1 vs. the number in the last five meetings in Toronto. However they’re just 1-4 ATS in their five overall.
The Hawks are 9-1 SU in their last 10 overall, 8-2 ATS in their past 10 road games and 7-2 overall ATS last nine.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings overall and 4-1 to the low side in the last five in Toronto.
Jesse Schule
Calgary Flames vs. Anaheim Ducks
Play: Anaheim Ducks -1.5 +122
We've all heard the expression: "In this world, nothing can be certain except for death and taxes". Well since 2004, the Calgary Flames can add to that list, as losing to the Ducks at the Duck Pond has been as sure as the fishes swim and birds do fly. Their historic losing streak at Anaheim has reached 22 consecutive losses spanning 12 seasons. This looks like a tough spot for the slumping Flames break that trend, as they play their first game of a back to back in California, before facing rivals Edmonton in the final edition of the Battle of Alberta in a nationally televised game on Saturday night. The Ducks are fighting for the top spot in the Pacific Division, currently just one point back of the Los Angeles Kings. Anaheim has scored 17 goals while winning all four meetings with the Flames this season, outscoring Calgary 10-5 in two meetings at the Duck Pond. The Flames rank dead last in the NHL in goals against, while the Ducks have allowed the fewest goals of any NHL team. Anaheim is also 1st in the league on the power-play (23.3 percent conversion rate), as well as penalty killing (86.8 percent kill rate). Calgary's leading scorer Johnny "Hockey" Gaudreau did not play in Arizona on Monday, and he's questionable to return here in Anaheim.
Will Rogers
Ottawa vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Ottawa
The Ottawa Senators and the Winnipeg Jets will golfing this spring, with both sides failing to make second straight trips to the postseason. Neither team will come into this game with a ton of motivation, but I like the price we get on the Senators to continue their dominance in the series.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous Meetings - The Sens have won five of the past six meetings in the series and five straight at Winnipeg. Andrew Hammond, who is confirmed to tend the net for the Sens tonight, turned away 35 pucks in a 3-1 win the last visit to MTS Centre in March last year.
2. Trends - The Jets have lost 13 of their last 16 games against teams from the East and the Senators are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
3. X-Factor - Ottawa's captain Erik Karlsson is entering this contest riding a three-game point streak. The blueliner is leading the Sens for points this season and has a respectable three goals nine assists through 13 games this month.
Big Al
Calgary vs. Anaheim
Pick: Under
As they sit in second place in the Pacific Division with 89 points and are all but assured of one of the top six non-wild card playoff spots, it's a bit hard to fathom that the Anaheim Ducks are the second-worst scoring team in the Western Conference. Of course that anemic offense is offset by some of the best defensive numbers in the league. Anaheim's 2.32 goals-against per game has it in a virtual tie in the category with the Washington Capitals, with the Division-leading Kings right there as well (2.34 GAA). And as good as that defense has been overall, it's been even better at home this season, as the Ducks have allowed just barely over two goals per game on average here at the Honda Center (second in the NHL only to the Blackhawks in Chicago). We all know that defense and goaltending usually determines the Stanley Cup just like pitching usually determines who goes to the World Series. And it should definitely serve the Ducks well, at least for tonight when they face a club that has averaged just 2.46 goals per game on the road this season (19th-worst in the NHL). The under is 6-1 in Calgary's last seven road games vs. teams with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Power Sports
Atlanta vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
This number is coming down and I simply feel that's an overreaction to recent form as the Hawks come in having won 9 of 10 while the Raptors have dropped three of four, including a 19-pt home loss to the Thunder on Monday. But while Atlanta may be moving up in the power ratings, this is a bit too much respect. Lay the points.
Toronto is 28-9 SU at home this year with an average margin of victory of nearly six points per game. They are also 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Atlanta. Adding to the overreaction here is the possibility that Kyle Lowry might not play here. But regardless, I feel the Raptors would make for a strong play in this situation. They are 4-1 SU and ATS as home chalk of three points or less this year and have held the Hawks to an average of just 87.3 PPG on 37.3% shooting during a three-game series win streak.
Atlanta has lost just twice in the last 14 games, but one of those defeats did come here "North of the Border." Lowry or no Lowry, this will be the toughest opponent that the Hawks have faced in some time. They were able to hold off struggling Chicago, on the road, Monday but won by only two. This is now their third road game in five nights and after holding their last two opponents both under 40% shooting, I would not be the least bit surprised here to see some defensive regression.
Ben Burns
Hawks vs. Raptors
Play: Hawks +1½
Some of you may recall that I had a big win (10* Personal Favorite) on the Raptors when they beat the Hawks here a few weeks ago. The Raptors were laying -3 for that 3/10 game and won by eight points. The Hawks have been the better team since that game, however. They've won nine of 10 games since the Toronto loss, going a healthy 7-3 ATS. They may be catching the Raptors at the right time. Toronto has failed to cover four of its last five games and has lost three of its last four overall.
Stats are very close. Both teams have averaged 102.9 ppg this season. Toronto allows 98.5 per game, Atlanta allows 98.9 per game. Note that the Raptors are only 24-28 ATS against other teams which average 99 or more points per game while the Hawks are 29-21 ATS (32-18 SU) against teams which average 99 or more. The Hawks are playing with 'double-revenge' and I like their chances of an 'upset.' Take a look at the visitors here.
Teddy Davis
Clippers vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves +5½
This may seem like a really low line but when Minnesota has had the Clippers number this year. The Timberwolves actually won the last meeting @ the Clippers and the other two meetings were won by the Clipper but only by a combined 12 points. Also this is a tough spot for the Clippers coming off a blowout win over the Celtics and have the @ the Thunder on deck tomorrow night on TNT. T Wolves are 13-3 ATS L16 games vs a team with a winning record. Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS L6 road games vs team with a losing home record.
Ray Monohan
Knicks vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs -5
Dallas welcomes in the New York Knicks on Wednesday night and the home team holds value here. Dallas tinkered with their lineup a bit after dropping 10 of 12 and it really paid off. The Mavericks went into Denver and grabbed a clutch win to keep pace with Houston for the 8th spot. However, after the Rockets defeated the Cavaliers yesterday, Dallas must win here to keep pace.
Dallas has gone a solid 20-17 SU at home this year while the Knicks are a mediocre 13-25 SU away from MSG. Some trends to consider. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Look for the Mavs to really come out motivated here, as they take down the Knicks and continue to keep pace with the Rockets in their push for the postseason.