Chip Chirimbes
Knicks vs. Mavericks
Play: Knicks +5½
Another series dominated by one team over another as the Mavericks have won 23 of the last 28 meetings and 15 of the last 18 in Dallas. The Mavs have struggled at home of late going 0-5 straight-up and ATS and 1-6 ATS in their seven as hosts. There was a question as to whether Carmelo Anthony would shut it down for the season but Kurt Rambis wants to see as much of him as he can. Dallas will be without Deron Williams once again and the Knicks will take advantage.
Jimmy Boyd
Mavericks -5½
Dallas is showing great value here at home against the Knicks. The Mavericks come into this game off a 97-88 win at Denver to snap a 3-game losing streak, but are still being undervalued by the books due to the fact that they are just 3-10 in their last 13 and playing without two starters in Chandler Parsons and Deron Williams.
The key here is that this game means a lot more to Dallas than it does New York, who is just playing out the season at this point. The Mavericks are in desperation mode, as they currently sit a 1/2-game back of Houston for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west.
Head coach Rick Carlisle inserted Dwight Powell and rookie Justin Anderson into the starting lineup in their win over the Nuggets and it lit a fire under this team, especially with the effort on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas held the Nuggets to just 88 points on 44.3% shooting. New York comes in having scored 95 or fewer in 7 of their last 9, the only exceptions being their two games against the Bulls. I look for the Mavericks' intensity on the defensive side of the ball to be the difference in this one.
Mavericks are a solid 14-6 ATS on the season when they come into a game having lost 3 or their last 4 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. It's also worth noting that Dallas is 13-2 in their last 15 home games against the Knicks and are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 (5-1 this season) after playing 3 straight games as an underdog.
Brandon Lee
Nuggets/Grizzlies Under 202.5
I believe the books have set the total way too high for tonight's matchup between the Nuggets and Grizzlies. Denver is coming off back-to-back ugly offensive performances, scoring just 90 on the road against the Clippers and 88 at home against the Mavericks. Memphis has allowed 100+ in 3 straight games, but are a defensive minded team and I look for them to come out motivated on that side of the ball after losing 3 straight and 7 of their last 9 overall. Grizzlies are also without a number of key offensive players due to injury and managed just 87-points at home against the Spurs last time out, shooting just 39.8% from the field. Only once in the last 8 meetings have these two combined for more than the number here and that was just 203 points (at Denver). Last time these two teams combined for more than 200 points in Memphis was 2013.
Jack Jones
Heat/Lakers Under 207
The Los Angeles Lakers have clearly packed it in. They have been blown out in their last four games, going 0-4 while losing all four by double-digits. Their offense has really been lacking in their last two losses, and it won't get any easier against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in the Miami Heat.
Los Angeles was held to 88 points against Washington and 75 against Utah in its last two contests. Now it will be up against a Miami team that ranks 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. But the Heat could struggle to score as well as starting PG Goran Dragic may miss his 2nd consecutive game with an illness.
Miami and Los Angeles have combined for 204 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings. The last three have seen 189, 194 and 153 combined points. That's an average of just 178.7 combined points per game, which is over 28 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.
Los Angeles is 22-11 to the UNDER as a home underdog this season. The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven vs. Eastern Confrence opponents. The UNDER is 9-3 in Lakers last 12 home games. The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings, including 5-0 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.
John Ryan
Phoenix at Milwaukee
Play: Phoenix +6½
SIM algorithm shows a high probability Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Phoenix is 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons and they are 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) when they make 71% to 77% of their free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are a perfect 2-0 against the spread at Milwaukee over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee is only 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. They are a lowly 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Johnny Wynn
Heat vs. Lakers
Play: Heat -10
The Lakers are just playing out the season and want to lose as many as they can to get more ping pong balls in the draft. Miami is playing well and looking to establish a high seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Take Miami tonight!
Dave Price
Washington Wizards -2
The Wizards simply have to win tonight against the Kings if they want to stay alive for the playoffs. They are 3 games behind Indiana and 3.5 behind Detroit for the final two playoff spots in the East. They at least have something to play for, while the Kings are playing for nothing but pride right now. They aren't doing a very good job of it, either, going 5-14 in their last 19 games overall. Sacramento is 3-11 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Kings are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games overall.
Wunderdog
New Orleans @ San Antonio
Pick: New Orleans +19
New Orleans has surprisingly covered the spread six of the last seven meetings and the Pelicans are getting close to a whopping 20 points in this matchup. San Antonio continues to rest various players, depending on the schedule, and the Spurs beat Memphis without Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 31 points and pulled down 13 rebounds against the Grizzlies as the Spurs shot 56.9 percent. San Antonio is 0-5 ATS its last five games after an ATS win and 0-4 ATS following a win of 10-plus points. New Orleans is riddled with injuries, but this is too many points to lay in this situation.
Joe Gavazzi
ODU vs. Oakland -1.5
It is the definitive contrast in styles, when the ODU Monarchs meet the Oakland Golden Grizzlies in the Finals of the 2016 Vegas 16 Tourney. The game is scheduled for a 10:00 ET tip, as televised by CBC TV. Each of these teams enters tonight with comfortable victories in their first 2 contests. But how they did it, is oh so very different! The ODU wins were by scores of (75-59) against Tenn-Tech and (64-49) against UCSB. Oakland, conversely, defeated Towson (90-72) and ETSU (104-81).
As coached by 3rd year mentor, Jeff Jones (UVA, American), the Monarchs want to control the tempo and take a significant amount of their shots inside the 3-point arc. They did make an exception last night, when the Monarchs shot 8/27 (30%) from 3 point land. But, for the season, they average only 4 triples per game on under (14) 3 point attempts for only 30%. It is on the defensive end, where ODU makes its mark, allowing just 61 PPG on less than 40% shooting and only 31% from tripleville. Following a ragged 9-9 SU, 3-11 ATS beginning, ODU enters tonight on a run of 15-4 SU, 12-6 ATS, including 9-1 SU in their last 10 games. Since the start of post-season play, the Monarchs have allowed 5/6 opponents to score less than 60 points.
At the other end of the spectrum is an Oakland team coached by 32nd year HC Greg Kampe. His tenure in that regard trails only Boeheim of Syracuse and Coach K of Duke. The “MO” for the Golden Grizz is totally dichotomous to that of ODU. Oakland loves to push the pace, averaging 87 PPG on 46% shooting, while knocking down 40% of their triples, averaging 9 per game. The Grizz seal the deal with 77% foul shooting. Last night, Oakland held a narrow 2 point margin at the half against ETSU, but they erupted for 65 2nd half points. The final stats showed the Grizz making 15/34 3 pointers, converting 19/22 from the stripe, while turning the ball over a miniscule 6 times. Again leading the way was K. Felder with a triple/double of 29 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds. Max Hooper, who entered the game making all of his shots from outside the 3 point arc, scored 28 points in the romp.
Though Oakland appears to be a 94’ go-go team, the Grizz, with Felder orchestrating the offense, are remarkably efficient in the half court. If ODU gets their preferred tempo, they could eke out a narrow win in this matchup. But, Oakland has just a great of chance to win a close game and a far greater probability of a blowout win.
SPORTS WAGERS
ANAHEIM -1½ +119 over Calgary
OT included. Jonas Hiller has less than 11 days left in his career. Hiller is making 4.5M per season. Christopher Reeve has a better chance of coming back from the dead and playing Superman in the next movie than Hiller has of being signed to another NHL contract. The Flames are out of the playoffs but they still have to pay this stiff close to 90K per week. Management would much rather lose than have to pay Hiller to sit on the bench the last 11 days of the season and collect another 150K or so. Flames management could not care less if Hiller gets humiliated one or two more times and frankly, they would probably like to see that so they can at least get some satisfaction when handing him over his cheque.
There is one reason and one reason only why Jonas Hiller is starting here and it’s all because of money. If we wasn't being paid so much, he would be sitting the rest of the year. Hiller is the NHL’s worst goaltender and if we were in the minors, he would be the minor’s worst goaltender. The opportunities to fade Hiller are just about done and we’re not about to miss this one in Anaheim against a Ducks team that has the opportunity to grab a victory and leapfrog over the Kings in the standings. End of story.
Ottawa +110 over WINNIPEG
OT included. While the Jets have been playing somewhat better over the past couple weeks, they’re still finding victories hard to come by and they’re still the Jets, an underperforming squad that usually plays down to their competition. Winnipeg is coming off back-to-back losses in Buffalo and Philadelphia. The Jets have dropped four of six and have been outshot in five of their past six with Vancouver being the only team Winnipeg outshot over that span. We’re pretty sure that those that have watched the Jets lately, especially their spirited effort against Philadelphia last time out, are tempted to back them here against this much weaker foe. We would be very reluctant to take that position because that’s what Winnipeg does. Every time it appears as though they are ready to take a step forward, the Jets take two steps backwards. They are simply not be trusted in the favorite’s role because their chances of losing are greater than their chances of winning. The Jets are 17-21 at home and 31-45 overall. As for them being favored, we say no thank you.
Ottawa doesn’t have much appeal either. The Sens have dropped three in a row and seven of their past 10 games. They have also lost four straight on the road. However, the last time the Sens went on a Canadian West Coast trip, they scored 13 goals in three games against Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver. They won two of those three games with only a third period meltdown in Vancouver preventing them from sweeping. Furthermore, Ottawa has had great success against the Jets, having won five of the past six games and winning five straight in Winnipeg. The Jets are playable when they’re being offered decent prices but they absolutely have no value whatsoever when favored and their overall record and lack of focus will attest to that.
Bruce Marshall
Pelicans / Spurs Under 198
The Pelicans are 6-0-1 vs. the line their last 7 against the Spurs, including throwing a scare into San Antonio in the last meeting. The Spurs played all their starters that night, but still trailed in the 2nd half and were tied at 72 with 7:50 to play on March 3 at New Orleans. The Pelicans' PF Anthony Davis and G Eric Gordon combined for 40 of their team's 86 points that night, and both and others are down with season-ending injuries this time around, while Kawhi Leonard expected to be available for Spurs after Coach Pop rested several in recent games. Pels' roster depletion figured into the spread, which still seems too high considering lack of urgency for Spurs and competitive series history. Spurs also "under" 13-5 last 18 and noting roster depletion on New Orleans side can see this game staying "under" as well.
Scott Rickenbach
Clippers vs. Wolves
Play: Clippers -5½
The Clippers are gearing up for the playoffs, have Blake Griffin coming back to the lineup this weekend, and their defensive plays has been superb in their current three game winning streak. The Timberwolves have put up a good fight at times in recent weeks but that doesn't change the fact that they still are a sub-par non-playoff team that has lost 41 of their last 58 games since starting the season 8-8. The Timberwolves have allowed 110 points per game in their last 8 games and their defense (or lack thereof truly) will be the difference-maker here. The Clips have allowed just 91 points per game in their last three games. Also, LA is 6-1 ATS this season as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Going further back the Clippers are 19-5 ATS in this point-spread range the past three seasons and a long-term 45-16 ATS as a 3.5 to 6 point favorite. The Clippers also have revenge for a home loss suffered at the hands of Minnesota in early February and the Clips are 9-3 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Timberwolves may hang tight for a bit in this one but eventually the red hot Clippers will impose their will in Minnesota.
Harry Bondi
MINNESOTA +5.5 over LA Clippers
Great spot to go against the Clippers here tonight. While the team has seemingly righted the ship with three-straight victories, problems remain on and off the court, as seen by a 3-7 SU run that preceded the recent hot streak. In their last outing, the Clippers beat Boston 114-90 and that puts them in a negative situation tonight, since the team is just 9-14 ATS this season after a win by 10 points or more. In addition, we think the Clippers will be a bit distracted tonight since they have a big grudge match on deck tomorrow night at Oklahoma City. The scrappy T-Wolves have been good to us recently, especially in the second half of the season when they have gone 12-4 ATS against teams with winning records. Take the home dog!