Free Picks for Wednesday, March 8th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ST. JOSEPH’S VS MASSACHUSETTS
PLAY: ST. JOSEPH’S +3.5
I don’t usually just play a game based on my opinion of the coaches involved. But that’s what I’m doing here.
St. Joseph’s had lost nine in a row prior to beating Duquesne and the Hawks have been absolutely decimated by key injuries. But it’s not like UMass is sizzling either. The Minutemen are 2-10 in their last 12 games.
UMass won both regular season meetings and I can’t disagree they should,d be the favorite on paper. But my take is that Phil Martelli isn’t losing three times in one season to Derek Kellogg, and I’m even getting more than one possession to support my opinion. Short and sweet, St. Joseph’s plus the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Texas-San Antonio vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky -4½
The Hilltoppers have played a tougher overall schedule this season and they match-up well with UTSA. I say that because the Roadrunners rely heavily on power forward Patrick Beverly but Western Kentucky has two guys that are similar in build and this includes the Hilltoppers leading scorer. Western Kentucky has not lost to the Roadrunners since these teams both ended up in CUSA and the Hilltoppers have won each of the last two meetings by at least a dozen points each time. Even though the Roadrunners finished the season with a big upset win versus Old Dominion, the Monarchs were not motivated for that game. That certainly will not be the case today with Western Kentucky and that is bad news for a UTSA team that had lost 9 of 12 before winning their season finale. The Hilltoppers closed the season shooting at least 47.4% or better from the field in 5 of their last 7 games and winning 6 of their last 11 games. So Western Kentucky comes into this game having averaged 47% from the field their last 5 games while the Roadrunners are only at 38% from the field in road games this season. The Runners simply won't be able to keep up in this one. The Hilltoppers are 7-2 ATS in March games while UTSA is 3-8 ATS in March games.
Scott Spreitzer
Southern Miss vs. Rice
Play:Sou Miss +12
Rice certainly owns the much shinier record and once in a while Southern Miss really tosses up a clunker, but they've played competitive basketball in four of their last five games and in both meetings this season with Rice. The Owls would like to play a first team to 80 tempo. But the Eagles have been able to throw a wrench into the Rice offense, mucking-up both meetings. The Owls average over 80 ppg, but were held to 72 (68 in regulation) and 61 points in this season's meetings, winning by just one point and three points, respectively. Rice was held to 44 of 115, 38% FG shooting by Southern Miss, including 12 of 49, 24% from behind the arc. Do it once and we could say it was a fluke. Do it twice and it's likely matchup oriented. And let's not fail to mention Rice has committed more turnovers than assists dished out this season. Their best assist man, Marcus Evans has 122 assists, but a hefty 114 turnovers. Their next two highest dishers have a combined 138 assists, but 119 turnovers to go along with it. Rice has dropped four in a row ATS as chalk, while Southern Miss has covered seven straight in the series.
Jim Feist
Washington St vs. Colorado
Play: Under 146
Washington State is no offensive force, 17-5-2 under the total on neutral courts. They scored 49 points in the last meeting with Colorado, sailing under the total of 149. Tourney play brings out strong defense with so much at stake. Colorado is 11-3 under the total after a victory. Coach Thad Boyle will be demanding great defense: "The key is to be aggressive, hungry, aggressive without fouling," Boyle said this week. "Take the fight to your opponent. You can't come out walking on eggshells." And Washington State is 23-8 under the total in Pac 12 play.
Brad Diamond
Stanford vs. Arizona State
Play: Arizona State +3½
Realize the Cardinal is in triple revenge, but State shows 9-1-1 L11 off a SU loss. Fundamentally, Stanford has the more effective defense allowing 73.4 points per game, versus 81.8 points for State over the last five games. But, Stanford is just 3-7 ATS L10 and 0-3 SU & ATS in the series. The Sun Devils have a negative history at neutral sites, however, feel the current number is worth the take.
Jimmy Boyd
Rutgers vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -7
These two teams come in with similar records, but I don't think there's any doubt who is the better team and I just don't see Rutgers keeping this one close. Sure the Scarlet Knights were able to knock off Illinois at home in their regular season finale, but that was one of just 3 conference wins for Rutgers and it snapped a 6 game losing streak. The Scarlet Knights lost on average by over 10 ppg in Big Ten play. These two teams played twice during the regular season. The Buckeyes won by 6 points at home and it came in a bit of a flat spot off a huge road win at Michigan and even bigger game at Maryland on deck. There's no overlooking teams in conference tournament, especially for a team like Ohio State, who needs to win the tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.
Ohio State ended the year with a loss at home to Indiana as a 3-point favorite and that's worth noting, as the Buckeyes are a perfect 8-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons off an upset conference loss as a favorite. At the same time. Rutgers is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after playing a game as a home dog.
Marc Lawrence
Raptors vs. Pelicans
Play: Raptors +2½
Edges - Raptors: 5-1 ATS as road dogs off a loss this season; and 3-1 sUATS away following the Bucks… Pelicans: 1-4 ATS home following the Jazz; and 4-7 ATS as home favorites following a SU Loss this season. With the Raptors 4-1 ATS with three days of rest, we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.
Mike Anthony
Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Houston Rockets -5.5
Houston will make sure they continue getting from their frontcourt to keep their 2nd ranked offense moving in the right direction. Youngster Clint Capela - is quick off his feet and since middle of February - he has been able to put up some really solid scoring and defensive efforts. Houston will make sure that Utah gets into a vibe as to where they don't drive to the rim as well as they typically should. Putting up just around 100 / game is never a great number for any team - let alone a team that has big playoff hopes like the Jazz. Houston has too strong of guardplay and home court advantage here and should win by 10 or more on Wednesday night.
TJ Masterline
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -4
We are all over the Heat tonight at home vs the Hornets. Here are some statistics that back up our play: Favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Hornets are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Hornets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Hornets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games. Heat are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Heat are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Heat are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Heat are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference. Heat are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest. Heat are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Heat are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Heat are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Heat are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Heat are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win.
Rob Vinciletti
Washington Wizards vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Washington Wizards +1
The Wizards are the better team and they are 8-1 of late vs trams who allow 105 or more points per game and 18-9 vs teams under .500. Denver is 2-5 vs Southeast division teams and have not played well vs winning teams. All road teams with no rest off a road game are 3-1 here in Denver. For our database system we want to play on road teams with no rest that were road favorites last night if the line is -4 to +4 and the opponent scored 100 or more as a 10 or more point favorite like Denver. Limited sample size but these road teams are 7-0 since 1995.
Raphael Esparza
Kentucky (-145) To Win SEC Conference Tournament
I was a little shocked that the Kentucky Wildcats are not -160 or higher to win the SEC Conference Tournament. The Florida Gators are the only team in the SEC that can beat the Wildcats, and Kentucky got their revenge against Florida last month at home beating them by double-digits. Kentucky has won each of the last two SEC tournaments, but Florida this year could derail the Wildcats, but again what I saw last month I see the Wildcats making it three straight SEC tournament winners. Grab the -145 now on Kentucky because wouldn't shock me to see this number close -150 or higher.
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Cal Golden Bears, laying a rather big number, but against a rather shoddy Oregon State team that won just one conference game this season.
See, while the Bears have 19 wins on the season, they're also one of the Pac-12 teams heading into this tournament that needs to pad its resume for the Selection Committee that will convene on Sunday.
As of now, Cal is firmly on the bubble. But a big win could boost confidence, and I can see the Bears winning this by at least 20. They have had success against the Beavers in their two meetings this year, beating them by 11 on Jan. 21 in Corvallis and smashing them in a 76-46 win in Berkeley on Feb. 24.
I'll look for Jabari Bird to make the biggest splash in this one, as he's one of the most exciting players in the Pac-12. He can fire from long range, or he can slash to the hoop for exciting dunks. He will lead the charge, and the Bears will claw their way into the Selection Committee's vision.
3* CALIFORNIA
Chris Jordan
Let's take a look at the Milwaukee Bucks for your Hump Day freebie, as they should annihilate the visiting New York Knicks.
The Bucks have plenty of motivation to play for, as they're still trying to lock down a postseason spot. They come in having won three straight and seven of their last 10 games.
Milwaukee is currently in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, but it is also just 1 1/2 games behind the Chicago Bulls for the eight spot in the wild card standings. Even further, the Bucks are a mere 2 1/2 back from sixth place.
Milwaukee is opening a three-game homestand, so it will have plenty of vigor, while the Knicks are looking to next season already. I'm playing the home chalk, as this price is nothing.
1* BUCKS
Eric Schroeder
My free pick for Wednesday is on the New Orleans Pelicans, minus the cheap number against the Toronto Raptors
I know the Pelicans are 2-5 since trading for DeMarcus Cousins, and they've won just once with both Cousins and Anthony Davis in their new lineup, but this might be the right spot for them to score a huge win.
I'm not sure what has gotten into the Toronto Raptors, but they're clearly not the team they once were. This is not a threat in the Eastern Conference, and I just don't trust them, despite knowing they've won 11 of the last 14 meetings.
When these two met on Jan. 31, the Raptors beat New Orleans, 108-106, in overtime. Now it's time for revenge. Take the home team here.
1* PELICANS