Brad Wilton
With Kevin Durant now sidelined, there is a very real chance the San Antonio Spurs can catch the Golden State Warriors for the # 1 seed in the West.
The Spurs head into this Wednesday home game riding an 8-game winning streak, though they have failed 4 straight against the spread. Still, have to lay the wood at home with San Antone as they face a Sacramento team that is on a 5-game slide, and have been able to cover just once in those 5 losses.
The Spurs have won the last 8 series meetings, and are 4-2-1 against the spread over the last 7 series showdowns.
Golden State does have a tough one tonight at home against Boston, so look for San Antonio to take no prisoners tonight at home against the Kings, as the Spurs do their part to keep pace in the Western standings, maybe even shave a full game off of Golden State's 2 1/2 game lead for the top-spot.
Play on San Antonio minus the points.
3* SAN ANTONIO
STEVE JANUS
Appalachian State vs. Troy State
Play: Appalachian State +6
Play Against - Neutral court teams (TROY) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This system is 64-27 (70%) against the spread since 1997.
BRANDON LEE
Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech +2
Wake Forest is getting a lot of love right now and rightfully so, but I just like the value here with the Hokies given the situation. The Demon Deacons needed that win over BC to lock up a spot in the NCAA Tournament and were fortunate that the Eagles lost their best player early in that game. Virginia Tech closed out the regular season with a 84-89 loss at home to Wake Forest and there's no doubt that loss isn't sitting well with the Hokies. The extra day of rest is huge in these conference tournaments and I look for Virginia Tech to get their revenge and move on to the next round.
ANDREW GOLD
Mississippi State -5½
This is going to be a heavy public play as well, but th e books are off here. LSU is a complete mess right now and especially after yesterday as we have heard they are going to fire their coach. However, their coach knows nothing about it leaving more confusion. These teams just met the last game of the regular season and Miss St won by 12. They simply left off the gas as they were up 18 @ half. I expect them to get a big lead again and LSU will simply throw in the towel. Miss St is 8-2 ATS L10 games vs team with a losing record. Miss St is 8-1 ATS L9 games vs a team with a winning % below .400 LSU is 2-5 ATS L7 games as an underdog.
MIKE LUNDIN
Wizards vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets -130
We won with the Washington Wizards as a premium pick at Phoenix on Tuesday, but I think they'll struggle with the tempo in the high altitude at Denver here the very next night.
The Nuggets have won 10 of their past 13 home contests against the Wizards and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in the series.
Denver is a solid 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home games overall and off a dominant 108-96 win over the Kings on Monday. The Nuggets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on one days rest and with both rest and home court advantage, I think Denver is the play here.
JACK JONES
Wizards vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets -2
The Denver Nuggets are coming on strong as they pursue the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall, winning all three games by 12 points or more.
The Washington Wizards are great fade material tonight because they are in a tough spot. The Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a draining 131-127 win in Phoenix last night. This will also be their 6th game in 9 days.
The Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Denver is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on one days' rest. The Nuggets are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
TEDDY DAVIS
Miami vs. Syracuse
Play: Miami -1
I like Miami here to open up today for the ACC Tournament. I think Cuse is getting a lot of credit because they are in a must win situation. I'm not buying it as this team has struggled big time away from home only winning two games. One road win was by 1 point and the other came in OT as they hit a 3 at buzzer to send it to OT. They could easily have 0 road wins.
Miami finished the season well earning a spot in the tournament. Sure they lost their last two games which were both on the road, but they were coming off a huge Duke win so the spot wasn't great for them. Even losing their last two they still finished their last 12 8-4.
Cuse smoked them @ home, but Miami only made 2 threes during that game and Cuse shot over 55% compared to Miami's 38. Miami gets the revenge here!
BEN BURNS
Raptors vs. Pelicans
Play: Raptors +2½
With both Cousins and Davis in their lineup, the Pelicans bring some serious power to the table. They've started to play decently, winning two of their last four games. However, a closer look shows that both of those wins came against sub-500 teams. They're still 2-5 their last seven. Recent games against winning teams have still resulted in losses. They're 0-4 SU their last four against teams which were above .500. They're still just 25-39 overall, below .500 both on the road and here at home. Yet, they're laying points against a Raptor team which is above .500 on the road and which is 37-26 overall. The Raptors, 9-6-1 ATS when listed as underdogs, haven't played since Saturday. They're 7-5 ATS (9-3 SU) the last 12 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games and they should bounce back with a big effort here.
Cal Sports
UNLV at San Diego State
Play: San Diego St -9
This play is an actual 3% release that went to my All-Access customer. UNLV is hosting this tourney have no problems fading them here. San Diego St was they overwhelming favorite to win the MW regular season title and instead they come in with a chi p on their shoulder as a #6 seed. The Aztecs have been to the conference finals 3 straight years and have won 9 straight opening round games. UNLV most likely will be without their leading rebounder Tyrell Green who has a knee injury in the regular season finale. The Rebels have lost 10 of their last 11 games with 6 of their last 7 by double digits. SD ST’s #49 defense will shut down UNLV which has been held to 43.5% shooting or less in their last 19 games.
Mike Rose
Penn State at Nebraska
Play: Penn State -2
If Penn State is to make a game of this, it’s going to need to do a much better job on the glass than it did in the first go round. It’s also going to need to find a way to prevent Nebraska’s bigs from manhandling like they did in the first meeting after outscoring them 46-28 in the paint. The Nittany Lions lost the rebounding battle 40-29 and allowed 30 defensive rebounds. PSU is far from being an efficient shooting team, so it better get to those loose caroms so as to prevent getting blown out a second time.
That said, Big Red has been nothing short of rotten to close the season with it giving up points in bunches defensively and coming up woefully short at the offensive end of the court posting a pair of efforts with just 57 point tallies. Penn State has at least been putting points on the board and been a bit more competitive falling in overtime to the Boilermakers and by one point at home to Ohio State. It’s been a long season in Lincoln, and the team’s body language against the Wolverines in their home finale was terrible. They want the season over, and I expect the Nittany Lions to take full advantage by avenging that ugly loss and move on to play the Spartans.
Jimmy Boyd
TCU vs Oklahoma
Play: TCU +1
These two teams just closed out the regular season against each other with Oklahoma pulling out a 73-68 win at home. The Sooners covered as a short 3.5-point favorite and have now covered the number in 6 straight. TCU on the other hand has dropped 7 straight. Needless to say the public is going to be all over the Sooners here, but I think the value is with the Horned Frogs. I like the revenge angle and the fact that the Sooners are a miserable 3-12 SU away from home this season. Keep in mind that TCU beat Oklahoma at home. The Horned Frogs are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
Info Plays
DePaul +10½
Here are some of the supporting systems backing our pick. DePaul is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival this season. DePaul is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1997.
Dave Price
Clemson +7
Duke is playing short-handed right now. The last thing the Blue Devils want to do is go on a long run in the ACC Tournament and wear themselves out for the NCAA Tournament. They could care less about winning this game against Clemson today. Conversely, the Tigers need this game like blood. They are still on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and a win over Duke might get them in here. They have played the Blue Devils extremely tough in recent meetings, pulling the 68-63 upset as 7.5-point home dogs last year, and narrowly falling 62-64 as 11-point road dogs in their lone meeting this season. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Each of Clemson's last five losses this season have come by 6 points or less, including four by 2 points or fewer. The Blue Devils are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games. Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.
Black Widow
Sacramento Kings +15
Bets on road underdogs (Sacramento) after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games against an opponent that's off a close win by 6 points or less are 37-6 ATS over the last five seasons. This situation's record is 13-3 this season alone. All the Spurs have been doing is winning close games of late, winning their last four games by 1, 3, 7 and 2 points while going 0-4 ATS. They needed OT to beat both New Orleans and Minnesota. I think Sacramento hangs tough here, especially with the Spurs more concerned about their trip to OKC tomorrow night.
Doc's Sports
Hornets +4½
We think the Hornets are a great buy low team right now. They have covered in four of their last six with one push and they are playing some of their best basketball lately after they played really bad for a month+. They recently finished a long road trip that saw them lose in OT at the Pistons and Clippers and they were also ½ point from the cover at Toronto, so this team has been playing better overall for longer than you might think. They also won and covered in both of the last two meetings with Miami. The Heat are coming off back-to-back wins over Cleveland and have Toronto on deck and we think this is the game out of those matchups that they care the least about and we think the Hornets have a great chance for the straight up win here.