Tony George
Air Force vs. Wyoming
Play: Wyoming -5
Air Force is having offensive issues and defensive issues. They have been beaten by the Cowboys twice this year by double digits, and in their last 5 games the Fly Boys have managed to score 69 ppg and allow 77. That is not good news against the high scoring Cowboys of Wyoming who have averaged 84 ppg their last 5 and they should rope and wrangle the Cadets in this one with ease.
Bruce Marshall
Heat -4
The NFL regular season was still underway when Charlotte won and covered the first two meetings vs. Miami before New Year's. But the Heat of those days bear no resemblance to the current version that has continued to roll after the All-Star break, winning and covering 17 of last 20 into last Friday vs. Orlando. More than half of those recent victims had scored less than a point per possession, suggesting some quality defense being played by Erik Spoelstra's troops. And Pat Riley has been doing some good business, too; at nearly $20 million less than Dwyane Wade is earning this season, Dion Waiters is averaging 20.6 points and 5.3 assists during the uptick.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa -102 over DALLAS
OT included. After spoiling the Capitals 15-game home winning streak with a victory in Washington on Monday, Dallas returns home from its two-game 2-0 road trip with its stock much higher than it should be. Dallas also defeated Florida 2-1 in its other road victory. Both wins are nothing but fool’s gold, which makes us instant sellers. Dallas rarely had the puck in Washington. They were outshot 44-22 by the Caps and allowed the Panthers to fire away 42 shots in Florida. Dallas was out-chanced in its last two games by an incredible count of 59 to 21. The Stars have five wins this year in 21 games against top-10 teams and have a lousy 11 wins in 37 games against top-16 teams. Dallas has won lately because Kari Lehtonen has been on fire but his hot hand is unsustainable because he’s always been a below average goaltender and it’s unlikely he found some secret sauce. Dallas is home for just this one game before they’ll head out for another trip, which is a four-gamer that begins in San Jose and ends with three games to the Canadian West Coast in Edmonton, Vancouver and Calgary. Not only are the Stars beatable on their best day, they are not in a good scheduling spot here either.
The Senators made a solid pickup at the deadline when they snagged the gritty and talented Alex Burrows from Vancouver. Burrows provides some scoring depth but he’s also well-versed in playing a strong defensive game and so far he looks outstanding in a Senators jersey on a line with Derrick Brassard. Brassard has never looked better since he came to Ottawa once he teamed up with Burrows. Ottawa has won three in a row, which includes victories over both Boston and Columbus. The Sens have allowed just 27, 27 and 23 shots on net in their last three games respectively and they’re also getting great goaltending from Craig Anderson. Ottawa now heads out on the road with a six-point lead on Toronto but they also have a chance to catch the Habs for the Atlantic Division title. The Sens are in a great spot here, being that it is their first game of a crucial three-game road trip. The Sens have Colorado and Arizona on deck so all focus should be on this first game of said trip. More importantly, the Sens are playing great hockey, they’re the better team in a better situational spot and they’re playing with swag and confidence.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oklahoma +111 over TCU
Oklahoma closed out the regular season with a 73-68 win over TCU on Saturday, making this one the second time the two teams have played each other in the last five days. That game was on Senior Night in Oklahoma and this one is on a neutral court in Kansas City. The Sooners were a 3-point favorite on Saturday and now TCU is a 2-point favorite so TCU is being credited with five points for this one being on a neutral floor. When these two played at TCU back in early January, the Horned Frogs defeated the Sooners by just three points so both games have been very close but we’re giving a much bigger edge to the dog here.
Saturday night was Senior Night in Oklahoma, which means distractions galore. Although every team wants to win on Senior Night, the game meant zilch to the Sooners but they still won despite the distractions. By contrast, that game on Saturday meant everything to the Horned Frogs, who were barely on the bubble to begin with but that loss officially removed them from the bubble and put them on the outside looking in. TCU is not going to hear its name called on Selection Sunday unless they win this tournament but that isn’t happening either. A month ago, TCU looked a like a lock to make the tournament and now they’ll come into this game with tournament aspirations nothing more than a pipe dream. The Horned Frogs are a mentally damaged team that has tuned turned caviar into cat shit but are getting credit here because they have a much better record (17-14) than OU’s 11-19 mark.
The Sooners come into this one in a much better state of mind. For one, they’re a dangerous squad that has won two of its last three and that went toe-to-toe with Kansas, Oklahoma State and Baylor in three of its last five games. The Sooners also come in with more confidence and an extremely bright future because of all the young talent they have. They actually believe they can win this conference tournament if the chips fall right and mindset is half the battle. By contrast, TCU has lost seven straight. They opened the year with an 11-1 record and they were 17-7 on February 9th. What a difference a month makes. During league play however, the Horned Frogs paid the price for scheduling out-of-conference games against marshmallows. An enthusiastic, confident and very talented Sooners’ squad now gets an extremely winnable game against a team that will be walking onto the floor with their heads down. This line is based on market perception, past results against one another and this season’s respective W/L records and all of the above are misleading. OU’s chances to advance are much better than the favorite’s chances.
DePaul +9 -110 over Xavier
The only thing we’re looking for in these conference tournaments is inflated points and there are numerous reasons why we’re getting a bunch here. First off, there is pedigree of which DePaul has none over the past decade or so while Xavier is in everyone’s brackets seemingly every year. Add at least a point or two that one will pay to back the Musketeers just for market awareness but there’s more. At one point this season, the Musketeers were ranked with their 18-6 overall record and 8-3 conference record while DePaul has lost 14 of its last 15 games and finished 2-16 in the Big East this season. There are 10 teams in the Big East and DePaul is the #10 seed so one can add another point or two for that. Indeed, this one appears to have blowout ramifications but we say not so fast.
DePaul is not going to win this Big East tournament but they still get to hit the reset button and try again. Furthermore, the Blue Demons are not nearly as bad as their record suggests. Among DePaul’s losses this season were a slew of them that came in under double-digits. They lost to Providence by nine, to Seton Hall by three, to G-Town by three, to Butler by 1 (in OT), to Villanova by 3 and to the Johnnies by six. The Blue Demons closed out the season with a 14-point home loss to these same Musketeers but that actually works in our favor here because Xavier absolutely needed to win that game to keep their bubble hopes alive while DePaul was going through the motions and saw plenty of looks that the Musketeers will employ again here. Incidentally, Xavier was a 5-point favorite in DePaul this past Saturday in a game that meant everything to them. Four days later on a neutral court, you will pay double that price.
Now allow us to take you back exactly one month ago in Cincinnati, where Xavier would host DePaul on February 8. The Musketeers were a 14½-point favorite that day and won by 11, thus failing to cover. However, Xavier’s star guard Edmond Sumner played that day, which was the last game he played in before injuring his knee. Since then and without Sumner, Xavier is 1-6 with only victory occurring against DePaul in the season finale. In other words, the Musketeers are 0-6 against non-DePaul opponents since losing star guard Edmond Sumner to a knee injury and that lone victory meant nothing to the loser. Now the Musketeers are being asked to win by the same margin or more in which they defeated DePaul back at Xavier a month ago with Sumner playing. That is not a reasonable request on a neutral floor.
SPORTS WAGERS
Valspar Championship
The Tour heads back to Florida on Thursday for the Valspar Championship, held annually at the tricky Copperhead course at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbour. This is a tough old test of ball striking, but with weather conditions set mostly fair for the four days we should see some sublime golf on this classic ball-strikers track.
The good news from a betting perspective is that DJ is not in this field. A bunch of other top names are out too so that leaves to door open for a longshot. The headline acts this week are Justin Thomas, looking to build on his stellar start to the 2017 campaign, and Henrik Stenson, who presumably will be happy just to be back on American soil after suffering the most euphemistic of ‘upset stomachs’ in Mexico, forcing his early withdrawal. It’s a pretty spare field in truth, with only eight of the top 30 players in the world present in Florida, including defending champion Charl Schwartzel.
Despite its tricky nature - the last four winning scores have ranged from -7 to -10 – it seems as though tee work is of little importance on this Copperhead track. Schwartzel hit just 44% of fairways last year at an average of 292 yards, so we could argue to some extent that neither driving accuracy nor distance are a huge factor here. Clearly, that means that strong iron play, scrambling where required, and a hot putter will go some way towards ensuring a decent showing on the leaderboard. 11 of the last 15 winners of this event have all ranked inside the top-20 for Greens in Regulation. The importance of the Par 5s at Copperhead cannot be underestimated. Schwartzel played these at -9 compared to level for the Par 3s and +2 for the Par 4s; so there is a good chance that this is where our champion will be made this week. That said, we’re fairly confident that a few longshots will be right in the mix on Sunday and we’ve been knocking on the door with Wesley Bryan (125-1) three weeks ago and Rahm (29-1) and Pieters (60-1) both tied for the lead at one point last Sunday. Hopefully, we found some live prices this week.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:
Jason Dufner 40-1
He’s becoming something of a forgotten man on the PGA TOUR in the wake of all these hot young talents coming through and that’s a shame as the Duf-Man still has plenty to offer. Jason made five starts this season and not only did he make the cut in four but also finished top-25 in each of those. His final scores of -4 in both the Honda Classic and the WGC-Mexico in his last pair of starts might not sound that exciting, but in tough tests of ball striking like Copperhead, they show he is prepared to graft out birdie opportunities as they come along. Dufner is five for five at Innisbrook (22-24-14-21-10), and for a guy who seems to enjoy plenty of time away from the course, the fact that he keeps coming back here year-after-year suggests this is a track that suits his eye (risking 0.2 units to win 8 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
J. Dufner -114 over K. Na (Risking 1.14 units to win 1).
Adam Hadwin 90-1
The Canadian is nicely under the radar this week given that his two visits to Innisbrook have yielded a missed cut and a T71 finish, but as is often the case, there is a story within the story. An opening round of 79 in his last visit here did damage to his hopes, but a Friday 69 showed that he has got the eye for this course, as only eight players in the field shot a better second 18 mark. Given his relative ‘coming of age’ this season, we can expect him to build upon that. Hadwin has made 7/8 competitive cuts this term, with four of those returning top-25 finishes. The pick of the bunch were top-10s at the OHL Classic and the CareerBuilder Challenge, where he finished an agonizing runner-up to Hudson Swafford despite carding a third round of 59. The door is open for Hadwin who will arrive at Innisbrook without bumping into DJ, Speith, McIlroy or Hideki Matsuyama. What a sweet price on a guy who has a chance to win it (risking 0.2 units to win 18).
Head-to-head matchup
Bet365 has a bunch of different prop bets and that’s where we are going for this wager. Top Canadian is offered and there are four golfers available. They are as follows: Graham Delaet, +100, Adam Hadwin +200, Nick Taylor +5-1 and David Hearn +8-1. Frankly, we give no shot to Hearn or Taylor. We are almost certain that the winner of this group will be Hadwin or DeLaet unless something drastic takes place. Therefore, we are going to bet 2 units on Hadwin at +2-1 and 2 units on Delaet at even money, thus giving us a virtual free-roll for 2 units on Hadwin to beat Delaet. If Delaet beats Hadwin, we break even on this wager.
Therefore the bets are as follows:
Top Canadian:
Hadwin +200 (risking 2 units to win 4).
Delaet +100 (risking 2 units to win 2).
Byeong-Hun An 50-1
A number of esteemed judges have been suitably impressed by An’s turns on the PGA TOUR this season, and what many don’t know is that while he is Korean by birth and spent his formative golfing years on the Asian and European Tours, he was actually schooled in California, so West Coast golf is nothing new to him. His last three outings have yielded a sixth-place finish at the WM Phoenix Open, a cut made at Riviera, and T48 in Mexico which was blighted by a final round of 76. An’s tee to green game is excellent – he ranks 29th on Tour for SG: T2G and 12th for SG: Approach – and that’s not bad at all for a young guy still making his way in the game. The Korean is a prodigious talent, and having witnessed his friend Jeung-Hun Wang win a couple of times over on the European Tour, he must be itching to get his hands on some silverware himself. This could be the weekend that happens (risking 0.2 units to win 10).
Head-to-head matchup:
Byeong Hun An -118 over R. Knox (risking 1.18 units to win 1)
Chez Reavie 140-1
Here’s a guy who is capable of the odd moment of magic out on the golf course, and on tight stretches like Copperhead his ability to fashion birdie chances gives him a clear edge. It certainly worked here in 2016, where he carded rounds of 69 and 68 – believe us, those are excellent numbers around this stretch – on his way to T22. He has another top-20 return here to his name in 2012, so clearly there is something about Copperhead that Reavie enjoys. His season has been up and down so far with T4, T8, and T12 at the OHL, Sony Open, and CareerBuilder respectively followed by three consecutive missed cuts but a couple weeks away from competitive golf will surely have helped him to work on his game behind closed doors. When he’s firing on all cylinders, Reavie is a joy to behold and there is no question that there is great value on him here, especially when you consider that he’s ranked 8th on TOUR in Scrambling (risking 0.2 units to win 28 units).
Head-to-head matchup: There are no head-to-head matchups available for Reavie
TOTAL wagered for this event is 7.12 units and we'll update it as soon as the event is officially complete.
For all you fantasy players we also like the following to mix and match with the above:
1). J.J Spaun: So many of the Web.com Tour graduates have impressed with their mature displays this season, but of all of them it is the fantastic all-round game of J.J Spaun that has really caught the eye. The numbers stack up: 7/11 cuts made, two top-10s (Phoenix Open and Farmers), and a T21 return from the Honda Classic offer plenty of encouragement. Cody Gribble and Mackenzie Hughes have already won this season, and Spaun may well be the next cab off the rank. Statistically he’s not a player who blows the mind, but those finishes in his first full season on Tour speak for themselves.
2). Charley Hoffman: It’s always nice to see prolific winners return to form and Charley Hoffman – a four-time PGA TOUR title holder – is bubbling up quite nicely at the moment. Three missed cuts in a row at the start of the season have skewed his form line, but nuggets of encouragement – T17 at the Tournament of Champions and a T24 at the Phoenix Open – have retained our interest. His best outing of the campaign came in his last start at the Genesis Open, where he carded a T4 finish at the ever-testing Riviera. Innisbrook is similar, in some respects, and having gone 11-MC-25-75-14 here in his last five trips, a decent showing from the Hoff this weekend is a distinct possibility.
3). Gary Woodland: If he was higher than 25-1, we would probably be betting him right back this week after we backed him last week. He’s getting closer, is Gary Woodland, to his first win since 2013. He’s finished runner-up twice, in the OHL and Honda Classics, and has recorded six top-20 finishes in his last eight starts. All he needs is a bit of luck and a thinner field – like this one – and he could get over the line. Whether the improvements are psychological or technical, clearly working with Butch Harmon again is aiding his cause tremendously, and while his record at Innisbrook is a case of feast or famine (42-MC-8-MC-29) you would have to conclude that, with the form he’s in, a place in the upper reaches of the leaderboard is there for the taking. Woodland has been excellent from tee to green of late, gaining more than two strokes on the field at PGA National plus +1.058 in Mexico, and while his game there was perhaps put off by the news that he is set to become a father to twins, now he has had time to digest that bombshell, he can focus all his attention on his golf this week.
Larry Ness
Brooklyn vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
The 11-51 Nets are the NBA's worst team but one must admit that Brooklyn is a different team when Jeremy Lin (13.5-4.8 APG) is healthy. Lin returned from a lengthy absence due to a hamstring injury on Feb 24 and the Nets have won two of the six. He's scored 18 points in each of his last two outings, including in Monday's 122-109 win at Memphis. Bottom line is this; the Nets are 5-13 (.278) with Lin in the lineup and 6-38 (.138) without the former Harvard star.
Meanwhile, the struggling Atlanta Hawks lost 119-111 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Monday, the team's seventh setback in its last 11 games at home, including three in a row. That stretch has left the fifth-place team in the East with a better record on the road (17-14) than at home (17-15). The Hawks are only team in the conference that can make that claim. However, the much bigger news was the benching of PG Dennis Schroder during Monday's game. "I don't understand (coach Mike Budenholzer's) decision," Schroder told reporters after he was sent to the bench following an errant pass and an on-court argument with center Dwight Howard, all while the Warriors were making a three-pointer. "Maybe I'm too competitive, I don't know. I'm just trying to be competitive, trying to win games. But I don't get that one." Despite playing just 24 minutes, Schroder still led the Hawks with 23 points but the defeat marked Atlanta's sixth loss in eight games, overall.
Obviously, the Hawks need to get this situation straightened out. Schroder (17.5-6.2 APG)) has been excellent of late, shooting 52 percent while averaging 19.2 points over a five-game span. Tim Hardaway Jr (13.6), who recently returned to a reserve role when Thabo Sefolosha came back from injury, is averaging 26.3 points in his last three contests. Howard ranks fourth in the NBA in rebounds (12.9) and shooting (63.9 percent) plus Millsap chips in 18.1 & 7.9.
If Atlanta can't get it together against the Nets, where do the Hawks go from there? The Nets are just 4-27 SU away from home on the season and are coming to the end of an exhausting trip, which when it ends in Dallas on Friday, will have covered about 8,100 miles over 16 days. It's been caused by the circus and then the ACC Tournament being at the Barclays Center.