DAVE COKIN
TRAILBLAZERS AT WARRIORS
PLAY: WARRIORS -12.5
The MVP has shaken off the rust, the team to beat has managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat twice in this series already and I’m of the opinion we could be looking at a blowout tonight in Oakland.
I’m obviously not a mind reader, so I could be dead wrong on this assessment. But I sure won’t be surprised if the Portland mental fuel tank is running on very close to empty by now. The Blazers have given the Warriors a real scrap in this series. No doubt the absence of Steph Curry had quite a bit do with that, but it’s still tough to not be impressed with what we’ve seen from this scrappy Portland squad in this series.
But in the aftermath of what took place in Game Four, I can see the Blazers being in a depressed state tonight. They have to feel they should be tied at worst and perhaps even ahead 3-1 in this series. Instead, they’re now down three games to one, and Curry is back to being Curry following his incredible overtime performance on Monday evening.
I really have doubts the Blazers will be able to convince themselves they still have a chance here. That’s a sell sign to me, particularly against this remarkably explosive Golden State entry.
The Warriors have shown some occasional tendencies to coast when they know they’re going to win. But that’s not as much of a concern here as it would be in a regular season setting. This is the playoffs, and the last thing the champs want is to have to make another trip back to Portland. They want to get rid of this pesky adversary right now and allow themselves a little extra rest for the conference finals.
If the Blazers are to make a game of this, they almost have to start quickly. If Golden State comes out firing, it could definitely be towel tossing time for the underdog and if that happens, this has a legit shot to get completely out of hand. Big number for sure, but I see a good shot of this being a lopsided result and I’m laying the doubles with the Warriors tonight.
Sleepyj
Padres +1.5 +100
Some of these prices the Cubs are laying are rather insane...I can agree they have been awesome so far this season and they have been covering RL's as well..Still, I don;t believe Lackey is a -220 favorite over any team or pitcher...We can grab a RL wager here at +1.5 for about EV money....Lackey has been good this season and he might show up here...Pomeranz has been good as well and this is the statement type of game for him...His ERA is 2.12 and he has been rather solid..He only had one rough outing and saying rough is a little much..He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs all year...His strikeouts are solid and staying away from the deep shot has helped..If he can manage his control and limit walks, he might be one of the better pitchers in this league if he progresses in the years ahead...I'm not one for stepping in front of a buzzsaw like the Cubs, but the line and pitchers make zero sense..I could understand lackey and Cubs a -165/-175....I feel this is inflated with a live dog and a live pitcher here..I'll take a chance.
Rob Vinciletti
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Over 216½
This series has seen 12 of the last 15 games play over between these two and the Warriors with Curry back for a 2nd game should be even more potent. They are averaging 115 points at home and the Blazers allow 106 on the road. Look for another high scoring game here as the Blazers have gone over in 5 of their last 6. Play this one over the 216 points.
Mike Lundin
Phillies vs. Braves
Play: Phillies -106
The 7-24 Atlanta Braves have the worst record in the MLB and dropped last night's opener of a three-game set against division rivals the Philadelphia Phillies by the score of 3-2. The defeat was the Braves' fifth straight, and I think they'll struggle tonight as well coming up against the Phillies' Jerad Eickhoff (1-4, 4.21 ERA) on the mound.
Eickhoff has had a solid start to the year, striking out seven or more in three of his six turns while giving up more than three runs only once. He worked seven scoreless frames in his only appearance against Atlanta during his rookie season last year.
The Braves turn to Jhoulys Chacin (1-2, 5.40) who is off his worst start of the year when he was tagged for eight runs on seven hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-0 loss to the Mets on May 4.
The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter and 4-1 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Braves are 3-14 in their last 17 Wednesday games.
Marc Lawrence
Tigers vs. Nationals
Play: Tigers +153
Edges - Tigers: Jordan Zimmerman 3-0 with 0.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP away with Detroit; and 11-6 last seventeen team starts during the month of May; and 9-3 last twelve team starts as a road dog for a net profit of +$883. Nationals: Max Scherzer 4-7 for a net -$947 in his previous eleven overall home team starts. With the Tigers 10-4 all-time in their fourteen games in this park, we’ll back Zimmerman over Scherzer in this matchup of two hurlers taking on former mates here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on the Detroit.
Scott Spreitzer
Royals vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -141
We went against Yordano Ventura in his last start and we cashed when the Indians rocked the young hurler in a 7-1 win. Ventura is having serious control problems, walking 11 batters in his last two starts, while lasting just four innings in each outing. He's walked five or more batters in three of his six starts this season. The Royals have now dropped 10 of Ventura's last 11 May starts. The KC righty wasn't too hot on the road last season, finishing with a 4.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 14 road starts. His road numbers are even worse in 2016, saddled with an ERA north of 7.00 and a 1.93 WHIP in three trips to the bump. Yankee hurler Michael Pineda has pitched better in four of his last five starts, allowing just eight earned runs in 23 innings, for a 3.13 ERA. The right-hander has a 2.49 ERA & 0.99 WHIP in four starts against KC over the past three seasons. And while the Royals have won just two of their last 13 road games, the Yankees are on a 13-4 run at home against teams playing .400 or worse, road baseball.
Jim Feist
Blue Jays vs. Giants
Play: Under 7
Toronto loses the DH for this series and a pair of outstanding arms are on the hill for both teams. Toronto goes with Marcus Stroman (4-0, 3.60 ERA) has great stuff, with opponents hitting .207 off him. Toronto is 16-4-2 under the total on the road and on a 20-6-2 run under overall. Stroman allowed two runs on eight hits, walking two and striking out eight over seven innings, but was left with a no-decision in the Jays' 5-2 win over the Dodgers on Friday night. The Under is 18-6-2 in Giants last 26 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Giants have ace Madison Bumgarner (2.93 ERA) going and when these teams clash the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in San Francisco.
Ray Monohan
Pittsburgh / Cincinnati Over 9
The Pirates and Reds continue their weekday series and the Over holds value here. Both starting pitchers have been a struggle this season. For Pittsburgh, they send out Juan Nicasio, who was knocked around in his last start.
Nicasio allowed 4 runs on 8 hits while walking 3 against the Cubs. On the road he owns a 6.75 ERA in 2 starts this year. Alfredo Simon will toe the rubber for the Reds and he's been a mess this season. Simon owns a 9.86 ERA on the season and has been horrific at home. He's posted a 7 plus ERA inside Great American Ballpark.
Some trends to consider. Over is 8-3 in Simons last 11 starts during game 2 of a series. Over is 19-7 in Pirates last 26 overall. With both pitchers struggles this season, this Over at 9 has good value and is worth the look.
Martin Griffiths
Sunderland vs. Everton
Play:Everton PK½+105
Everton embarrassed themselves at the weekend against Leicester City, it was one of the poorest performances from any team this season and they need to do something fast to get their fans back on side, otherwise their last game of the season at the weekend in front of their home fans will be nothing but booing.
Sunderland were lucky they faced a Chelsea team that simply did not care if they won or lost at the weekend, but that is not their fault, they did what they had to do and register a very important home win.
They will be looking to do the same this evening and confirm their Premier League survival and based on what has happened recently you would think that a home win is there for the taking, but it is not that simple.
Sunderland are not a good team, if they were they would not be fighting to survive, Everton can be a good team, they certainly have better players, but their recent form has been woeful.
I cannot believe that Everton will be so bad again this evening and I do believe they will put in a better performance, Sunderland will have the crowd behind them for sure, but they are limited by their abilities and talent.
Sunderland needing a win to stay up in front of their home fans against a team in dreadful form would be the easy pick, but I do not see that happening, I do expect a reaction from Everton and if that happens they are good enough to hold Sunderland to a draw at least.
All things considered I am going with Everton on the spread.
Matt Josephs
Rays vs. Mariners
Play: Under 7
Chris Archer is back for Tampa Bay right now having allowed two runs and 11 hits in his last three starts. The righty has dominated the Mariners in his career sporting a 2.08 ERA and a WHIP of 0.956 in five career outings against them with three going under the total. Seattle has gone under in 18 of their 33 games hitting .216 at home this season. Taijuan Walker is 2-2 with a 1.97 ERA and a WHIP of 1.031 in six starts with five of them going under. Walker has not faced the Rays who are hitting .206 this season against right-handed starters. They have gone under in 19 of 31 games overall. Both teams have solid bullpens so leads should be safe.
Larry Ness
Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Zimmermann went 70-50 with a 3.32 ERA over his first seven seasons with the Nationals. He had a career-high 19 victories in 2013 and tossed a no-hitter against Miami on Sept. 28, 2014 before pitching well that postseason. He was 58-32 (.644) in his final four seasons (2012-15) with Washington, making a minimum of 32 starts each year. He had ERAs ranging from a low of 2.66 to a high of 3.66 and more importantly to us sports bettors, the Nats were 85-44 in his starts in that four-year stretch, showing a profit of $2,967 (at $100/game). Zimmermann wanted to remain with the Nationals after 2015 but the two sides couldn't agree to terms. He opted to sign a five-year, $110 million deal with Detroit, which was the largest contract for a Tommy John surgery recipient before Washington just inked Stephen Strasburg to a seven-year, $175 million extension this past Monday.
Zimmermann has so far lived up to his new deal, ranking among the major league leaders in victories (5-1) and ERA (1.10). He owns a 1.05 WHIP and opponents are batting only .224 against (his career BAA is .251). He won his first five starts of 2016, then pitched fairly well (allowed three runs over eight innings) in a 5-1 defeat in his last outing. Zimmermann is 3-0 with an 0.47 ERA in three road starts and expects to continue that success at his former home park in his return to Washington. "Yeah, I can't wait," Zimmerman told the league's official website about going up against his old friend Max Scherzer. "It's going to be fun and we'll see what happens. I'm pretty sure I'll be amped up and try to calm those emotions, go out there and pitch my game."
Scherzer teamed with Justin Verlander to give the Tigers an impressive rotation from 2010-14 when he went 82-35 with a 3.52 ERA. However, Scherzer signed a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Nationals on January 21, 2015. He posting a career-best 2.79 ERA in 2015 plus threw two no-hitters but the 31-year-old has a career-worst 4.60 mark in going 3-2 to open the 2016 season (team is 4-3). He?s also already allowed nine HRs, after he gave up season highs of seven runs, seven hits and four HRs in Friday's 8-6 road loss to the Chicago Cubs. "Obviously, I'm catching a little too much plate, but at the same time, maybe I was a little too predictable in what I was doing," he said after that game. "That's something for me to just chew on for the next four days and try to come back out here and compete and do what I do."
Scherzer can?t seem to find any consistency this season and remember, Zimmermann owns a 1.10 ERA after six starts this season, including an 0.47 ERA in three road starts. Talk about a 'live dog!'
Bruce Marshall
Heat at Raptors
Play: Heat +4.5
No artistic masterpiece this series, but it has trended strongly toward the underdog side, which covered the first three games and should have covered a fourth before Toronto would fall by 7 in OT on Monday. The Raptors are simply having trouble scoring points with key weapons DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry still slumping and a combined 6 for 28 from the floor in game Four. Meanwhile, Dwyane Wade has taken over this series, scoring 35 ppg over the last two games.
Greg Shaker
Cleveland -114
Cleveland is looking for their 3rd series winner in a row tonight and they should be able to get it here with serious line value in the starting pitching Salazar/Fister. They do have a couple of bumps and bruises that may keep a couple out of the lineup and perhaps the reason why this one opened as it did right at -110. While we are not getting the best number we are getting a good one.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 54-41 run with free picks: Oakland at BOSTON
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Boston Red Sox host the struggling Oakland Athletics, and I think I will like the price no matter what it comes out at, with the Crimson Hose tonight. Boston is in after winning three straight. It avoided a sweep versus the New York Yankees by winning on Sunday night, then romped the A's, 14-7 in the series-opener and won again last night. Tonight the Red Sox continue to roll and win for a fourth straight night.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - I am not listing pitchers, but I like going against Oakland's Eric Surkamp. The young southpaw allowed 12 earned runs and 25 hits over 19-1/3 innings in four starts for the A’s last month. Following his demotion to Triple-A, he went 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts for Nashville. Now he's going against one of the better American League teams in its own ball park.
BOTTOM LINE is - After putting up 27 runs in the first two games, Boston will likely come out a huge favorite, so I'm guessing you'll be playing this on the run line when the line is out. Don't worry about it. Lay it. The Red Sox came into this series leading the junior circuit with 5.03 runs per game. That average is up after a pair of double-digit scoring efforts, having outscored the A's 27-12 the past two nights. The Red Sox have now won six straight against the A's.
5* RED SOX -1.5
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the team I've rode all last week in some capacity, and now this week as well. From my premium plays, to a pay-after winner on Saturday and again with my complimentary winner - I love the Chicago Cubs.
Let's put in perspective how good the Cubs actually are right now. The Washington Nationals came into a weekend series on a 5-1 run during their 10-game road trip and 11-4 away from home this season. The Cubs won four straight, sweeping the series, and are off to their best 30-game start in more than a 100 years.
Sitting at 25-6, the Cubbies look like a team on a mission for October. Chicago has clearly made a statement it is the team to beat in the National League.
The Cubs have the majors' best run differential at plus-103 (192-89). That's why you don't have to worry about the pitchers in this one, as the Cubs are getting things done done regardless of who is on the hill for either team, thanks to their power-packed lineup
The hard-hitting Cubbies will dominate the San Diego Padres IN THE FIRST GAME of the doubleheader at Wrigley. Take the home team here - big.
1* CUBS -1.5