Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays +110
After losing the first two games of this series to the Mariners, the Rays will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 today to avoid the sweep. I like getting them as underdogs here considering I believe they have the edge on the mound in this one.
Chris Archer is the ace of this Tampa Bay staff. After a slow start to the season, he has turned the corner, going 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in his last three starts. He has given up just 2 earned runs over 18 2/3 innings with 20 strikeouts in his last three outings.
But what really stands out is how dominant Archer has been against the Mariners. Indeed, the right-hander has posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in five career starts against Seattle. In fact, he has pitched 21 1/3 innings without allowing a single earned run in his last three starts against them.
Archer is 9-1 (+9.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last two seasons. Archer is 12-2 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in his career.
Brandon Lee
Giants -120
San Francisco is worth a look here at home against the Blue Jays. Toronto has taken the first two games of the series and it's no easy task sweeping a good team on the road, especially when that team is sending out their ace in Madison Bumgarner. You aren't going to get this kind of value on the Giants with Bumgarner at home often. He's 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and are 7-2 in his last 9 home starts against a team with a winning record. I also want to point out a strong system backing the Giants in this one. Home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 off a loss by 4 runs or more against an opponent that has has scored 4 runs or less in 4 straight games are 73% (30-11) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
Brian Hay
Philadelphia Phillies +105
Just can't believe the odds makers still have so little faith in the Philadelphia Phillies. They have listed Philly as even today against a Atlanta squad that has only won 7 out of their first 31 games this season. The Phillies are off to a great start at 19-14 and would qualify for the postseason if the season ended today. The Braves are in the early stages of a complete overhaul. Atlanta is nothing but a good AAA team right now. I will go with the much better club today at a terrific price.
Jimmy Boyd
Rangers -137
Texas is showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the White Sox with their ace Cole Hamels on the mound. The Rangers pulled scored 7 runs in the bottom of the 8th to turn a 5-run deficit into 13-11 win. That kind of victory can light a fire under a team and I look for Texas to ride that wave of momentum to a win in the series finale against Chicago.
Hamels is 4-0 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 6 starts and is coming off a dominant outing at Detroit, where he allowed just 1 hit with 9 strikeouts over 7 scoreless innings. This will be the first time that Hamels has faced the White Sox since 2013 and Chicago is hitting just .30 as a team against left-handed starters.
The White Sox will counter with Mat Latos, who comes in 5-0 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 6 starts. However, Latos has been trending in the wrong direction. In his last 2 starts he's failed to get past the 5th innings, giving up a combined 18 hits and 8 runs.
Rangers are 13-5 in their last 18 after a game where they had 6 or more extra base hits and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring and allowing 8 or more in their previous game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh to win Cup at 2-1
We are not in the habit of playing the chalk in future bets but this one makes sense and will very likely turn out to be a sneaky smart play.
There’s no line yet posted on Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh but we’re suggesting that the Penguins will be anywhere between a -170 to -210 favourite to defeat the Bolts and defeat them they will, as the Bolts had an easy path to this point against two lame squads that both brought their “B” game to the playoffs. Tampa’s weak defense will not be able to withstand Pittsburgh's attack for an extended period of time. The Pens take a huge step down in class here after defeating the Caps in six.
Indirectly, this is a series bet on the Penguins and here's how it’s going to work. If Pittsburgh defeats Tampa Bay and we have no doubt that they will, we are now going to the Finals with Pittsburgh at +200. At that point, we will buy back whomever the Penguins are playing for 2 units and essentially free roll on the Penguins to win the Cup for 2 units to win 4.
It could get better too. Pittsburgh will be favored in the Finals against San Jose, Nashville and Dallas. They will have home ice advantage against San Jose or Nashville but will not against Dallas or St. Louis. St. Louis is the only team that would potentially be favored against Pittsburgh in the Finals, which is why this wager should be made today. If Dallas happens to defeat St. Louis tonight, the line on Pittsburgh to win the Cup will decrease. If Nashville happens to beat San Jose and Dallas happens to beat St. Louis, the line on the Pens to win the Cup will decrease dramatically.
So, this wager is all about the Penguins getting to the Cup, not winning it. Again, if (when) the Penguins defeat Tampa Bay, we are now in a great position with Pittsburgh at +200 to win the Cup, which will provide us with not only great value but great options as well. Therefore, the wager is going to be 4 units on Pittsburgh to win the Cup at odds of 2-1 with the intention of some follow up wagers (hedging) before the Stanley Cup Finals begin.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +170 over MIAMI
The Marlins are a very decent team that is often undervalued because they’re a small market squad that few pay attention to. However, the tide changes here, as the Marlins wiith Wei-Yin Chen on the hill are priced like they shouldn’t be. In his last start, Chen was unable to work with a four-run lead against the Phillies and gave up four runs on 11 hits in his five innings of work in a no-decision. Incidentally, the Phillies entered that game with a .175 team BA against lefties. They pounded Chen. Chen remains susceptible to the long ball. His HR damage at times gets minimized by his pinpoint control, which is fully supported by his first-pitch strike rate. Consistency has its value, but Chen's xERA and mediocre swing and miss rate/K-rate say 2015 was as good as it's going to get. Chen may indeed win here but he cannot be favored in this range against anyone.
Chase Anderson comes in with a 6.44 ERA after six starts of which only one was of the pure quality variety. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that Anderson is good but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value here. In what seemed like a pitching mismatch yesterday in this series in the Marlins favor turned out to be the exact opposite. The same could occur here, as Milwaukee has a chance to win its first series of the season. Last season, Anderson made the D-Backs rotation in April and pitched well enough to stick all year. His ERA spiked down the stretch, but a nasty trifecta of 2H luck (hit%/strand%, hr/f) was to blame. In-season velocity, swing and miss gains boosted his second half strikeouts and sent his base value above league average. Anderson holds little upside, but profit is there if last year’s late-season gains hold and the situation is right. When two weak pitchers meet, we’ll take our chances at this price almost 100% of the time and make no exception here.
Philadelphia +105 over ATLANTA
Yesterday we backed the Phillies as a pooch in Atlanta and nothing about this game suggests we should back off. In fact, today we get an ever bigger edge on the hill with Jared Eickhoff going up against Jhoulys Chacin. The market is still not buying into the Phillies good start so we’ll continue to try to take advantage of that.
Chacin has made five starts this year after throwing just 27 innings all of last year. He eventually made it back to the majors in late August last season but his velocity didn't return, and lack of whiffs once again left his command at a undesirable level. A decent groundball % is really all he has going for him at this point. A return to relevance isn’t likely. Chacin has coughed up 20 hits, eight walks and 13 earned runs over his last 15.1 innings. He was tagged for four HR’s in his last and now he’s favored over the Phillies? Atlanta has one home win in 17 games.
Jerad Eickhoff owns a mediocre 4.21 ERA after 36 innings but his base skills have been much better than that: 9.2 K’s/9, 1.5 BB/9, 45% groundballs. Eickhoff is more "youngster worth watching" than "budding ace” but he’s facing a Braves team that loses almost every day and that cannot hit, field, or pitch. The Phillies are hungry and they have seized this opportunity by winning the first two games of this series. Now the Phillies are even more confident while the Braves locker room must be at an all-time low. Invest.
Kansas City (5 innings) +120
The Yanks have won four of their past five games while scoring 27 times in those four victories. They have also torched the Royals pitching the past two days to the tune of 22 hits and 16 runs over the past two games but that came against two complete stiffs in Chris Young and Kris Medlen. Both those Royals starters failed to make it out of the third inning. However, the Yanks do not have a .300 hitter. The bottom five guys in their lineup are hitting .229 or less with three of them batting under .200. The Yanks are favoured in this range because K.C. is laboring and because Yordano Ventura has some very ugly surface stats. Ventura’s 4.65 ERA and 1.58 WHIP is the result of nothing but poor control. Ventura has walked 25 batters in 31 frames and many of those have come around to score. When he throws strikes, Ventura has top-tier raw skills with an electric fastball. This lack of control is nothing new for Ventura, as it’s something he’s always battled but it’s a streaky thing too. It can come and go for weeks at a time. Ventura struck out 102 batters over his final 96 innings last year and played a key role for the Royals in the playoffs the past two years. He’s got the stuff and knows that this is an important start because the Royals pen is so heavily taxed right now.
The Yankees bullpen is one of, if not, the best in the business and it’s for that reason, we’ll leave the bullpens out of this one. If Ventura is on, we get great value and if he’s not, we’ll likely lose it anyway.
Michael Pineda has a fluky hr/f rate and a below average strand percentage of 70%, both of which are luck-driven stats. However, it’s a problem that Pineda has been dealing with for too long to dismiss it as an extended stretch of bad luck. Pineda has not induced even one infield fly-ball this season. He served up four bombs to Tampa Bay in one single game and served up another three to the Astros in another game. Pineda comes in with an oppBA of .307 and a WHIP of 1.58. Pineda is one of those guys that the baseball world has been waiting for to break out every year but just it doesn’t happen. A much better collection of Royals hitters gets this call to get to Pineda before the Yanks get to Ventura, if at all.
Will Rogers
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati +1.5
The Reds won Game 1 of this home series versus Pittsburgh by a score of 3-2, and the Pirates are a favorite again in Game 2. I like the Reds as a home dog plus the runs.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Juan Nicasio will get the call for the Pirates, and he's been brutal on the road. Nicasio (3-3, 3.16 ERA) gave up four runs on eight hits and three walks in just 4.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs in his last outing. He's 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA on the road. The Reds hand the ball to Alfredo Simon, who is coming off his first "W" of the season after a rough start.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Brandon Phillips comes in swinging a hot bat, he's hitting .321 with five home runs and nine RBIs over the last seven days. The Reds second baseman is 5-for-11 with a home run lifetime versus Nicasio.
3. X-Factor - Nicasio is 0-2 with a 5.15 ERA in his last three starts versus the Reds.
Wunderdog
Arizona @ Colorado
Pick: Under 10.5
Totals in Coors Field are high sometimes too high like yesterday, in a 5-1 Arizona victory. The Diamondbacks unveil lefty Robbie Ray (4.70 ERA) today, throwing well with 32 strikeouts in 30+ innings. The UNDER is 10-1-1 when he starts on the road, plus 9-3 UNDER when he's going on five days of rest. Arizona winds up a nine-game road trip here and faces a good arm in Colorado righty Chad Bettis (3-2, 4.40 ERA). He has 30 strikeouts in 43 innings, 10 walks and fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. The team is 9-4-1 UNDER the total when Bettis starts. He also has a 3.29 ERA in Coors Field this season. Colorado is 6-3-1 UNDER the total against an opponent with a losing record and this shapes up as more of a defensive duel than oddsmakers expect.
Nelly
Tampa Bay Rays + over Seattle Mariners
In his first four starts of 2016 spanning not quite 20 innings of work Chris Archer allowed 30 hits and 18 runs. In three starts since he has allowed 11 hits and two runs in nearly 19 innings of work as he appears to have his command back. Two of the recent excellent outings came in formidable matchups with Baltimore and Toronto and he is still posting 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He has allowed seven home runs and 41 hits but Archer appears poised to re-gain his form from last season when he was one of the top pitchers in the AL. Taijuan Walker owns a great 1.97 ERA this season as he looks to back up last season's breakthrough season and with just three walks allowed the control for the still just 23-year old has been sharp. Walker left his last start early with neck spasms so there is some concern about his ability to deliver a long outing Wednesday afternoon. The road team has had a lot of recent success in this series and Archer was listed at -135 pitching in Seattle in a 3-1 win last June as his slow start has put some value on one of the AL's most impressive pitchers.
Drew Martin
Toronto at San Francisco
Play: Under 7
The San Francisco Giants host the Toronto Blue Jays for the final game of a three-game series. The Blue Jays have taken the first two games of this Interleague matchup and look to sweep the Giants behind the right arm of Marcus Stroman. With both teams sending their respective aces to the hill, I project that runs will be at a premium.
Last time out Bumgarner tossed 7.1 innings, gave up only two runs, and fanned 10 in a 6-4 victory over the Colorado Rockies. At times this season the Giants lefty has not looked right, but he seemed to get it all in order in his last appearance highlighted by a season-high 16 swinging strikes. And speaking of strikeouts, after averaging only 3.8 K's per start his first five outings, Stroman has found his groove. In his last two starts, he recorded 17 strikeouts which correlated to only three earned runs allowed over 15 innings. Also on his side today is the fact that the Giants have never faced him.
The first two games in the series both featured only four runs. And starters JA Happ and Matt Cain went 8 innings yesterday leaving the bullpens rested and ready. We'll come in with a play on the under for this mid-afternoon start.
Tony Karpinski
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Blazers +13
C.J. McCollum will step it up here tonight. Portland with their backs against the wall will get into their rhythm here, especially in California, where they have been playing well and Portland shooting much better of late. I like the Blazers here PLUS the generous 13.
Teddy Covers
Cardinals vs. Angels
Play: Cardinals -132
Teddy is absolutely, positively ON FIRE right now; cashing at an 88% clip across All Sports over the past four days. And Teddy’s strongest plays – Big Ticket Reports – are 13-3 (81%) w' his last 16; part of a 36-14 (72%) extended run of excellence since October! Go for the 2-0 sweep again tonight with Teddy's Big Ticket in MLB & his NBA cash!
The LA Angels are in a world of hurt right now, just a game out of last place after losing four straight and eight of their last ten. Other than Mike Trout, LA’s lineup doesn’t have a single hitter that scares opposing hurlers. Albert Pujols batting average is down to .183 with only 3 RBI’s in May. Andrelton Simmons just went on the DL with a bad thumb that needs surgery. LA has plated only six runs during this 0-4 skid at home.
LA’s pitching staff is problematic as well. Four Angels starters are already on the DL, forcing them to recall Matt Shoemaker from AAA. Shoemaker was lit up for six runs or more three times in five April starts he went 1-6 on this mound in ten starts last year. Behind Shoemaker, the Angels bullpen is completely spent already – only once in their last ten games has LA’s starter lasted through the sixth inning.
St Louis has pounded out 19 runs in their last three games, coming off a four homer blowout win on this field last night. The Cardinals are tied with Boston for #2 in MLB in runs scored this year – unlike LA, this lineup can hit. Starter Jamie Garcia is coming off a seven inning, two hit gem against the Phillies, demonstrating his ‘ace’ level stuff. And the Cardinals strong bullpen behind him is rested and ready off Mike Leake’s dominant eight inning effort last night. Chalk worth laying.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals +135
The Kansas City Royals are showing serious value Wednesday as +135 road underdogs to the New York Yankees. They have lost three straight, including the first two games of this series to the Yankees. They will be hungry for a victory here to get back on track. Yordano Ventura is one of their best starters, but a poor start to this season has him undervalued right now. But Ventura pitched 6 shutout innings in his lone lifetime start against New York in a 2-0 Royals' victory at Yankee Stadium. Michael Pineda has actually been worse this season than Ventura. Pineda is 1-3 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.576 WHIP in 6 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in 4 home starts. Ventura is 8-0 (+8.8 Units) against the money line against AL East opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are 37-18 in Ventura's last 55 starts. The Yankees are 0-5 in Pineda's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 0-6 in its last 6 during Game 3 of a series.
SPORTS WAGERS
The Players Championship
The PGA TOUR’s unofficial “fifth major” heads back to TPC Sawgrass this week for one of the most anticipated events of the year; THE PLAYERS . This tournament is often held in such high regard by many thanks to the prestigious par-72, 7,215-yard course and large purse.
Bello +125 over Furyk
Hometown boy Jim Furyk will make his second start of the season this week after being laid up due to a wrist injury but he’s not a name we will trust this week, as both his age and lingering injury continue to raise more questions than answers. Furyk may or may nor be ready this week but we’re fine either way. He may just be playing this event because he’s “expected to” with so many friends and family in the area.
Meanwhile, Cabrera-Bello is not getting the love he deserves with these odds and seems like a great sleeper pick this week. He’s flown up to 29th in the world rankings and is currently raking over in Europe where he ranks third in the Race to Dubai. In his last six events between the European and PGA TOUR, he has two top-three showings, including a near win at the WGC Match Play Championship, and another three finishes in the top-17. Between the WGC third and the tie for 17th at the Masters, Cabrera-Bello proved that he can compete with the best in the world and this week should be no different. The Spaniard has a tremendous all-around game and should perform well above his odds this week in his debut at THE PLAYERS.
The wager: Bello +125 to beat Furyk in heads up (Risking 2 units)
TO WIN OUTRIGHT
Kevin Na 70-1
Na has been enjoying this event in recent years, earning a sixth in 2015 and a seventh in 2012 while also making the cut with a 38th in 2014. His comfortableness with the course combined with his tremendous play on the year is a perfect combination for a huge effort this week. These odds seem too high for a player who is currently ranked eighth in the FedExCup standings and sits at 26th in the world rankings. Na has failed to get his second victory on TOUR since earning his first back in 2011, but over the past three seasons he has finished as the runner-up five times; including twice this year to go along with two third place finishes. Overall, Na has been able to gain 1.313 strokes on the field from tee-to-green (12th on TOUR) and consistently hits fairways (64.90%, 48th on TOUR) and greens in regulation (67.80%, 40th on TOUR). It would not be a surprise to not see Na in the hunt on Sunday.
Chris Kirk 70-1
Kirk is one of the better players on TOUR who would not be considered a household name by many. He’s finished in the top-50 of the FedExCup standings in each year since making his debut in 2011 and has won four tournaments during that stretch. By those standards he is actually having a poor season, currently sitting in 57th in the standings while missing four cuts in 15 chances, but he has certainly begun turning it around of late. In his last six times out, Kirk has made five cuts, with his one missed cut coming at the Masters, and has finished 13th or better four different times. He is coming off a rain-shortened tie for fifth at the Zurich Classic where he was able to card a 65 on the final day of competition. He’s made consecutive finishes of 13th here at THE PLAYERS and will look to continue his recent stretch of strong golf at TPC Sawgrass.
Power Sports
Kansas City vs. New York
Pick: New York
I recommended the Yankees in this space yday and that worked out as they came from behind to beat the Royals 10-7. All of a sudden, their suffering offense has woken up, delivering 16 runs in this series and now they can sweep KC right out of town. As I said in yday's analysis, the reigning World Series Champs were due to regress in 2016 and simply don't look like a very good ball club right now.
Neither starting pitcher brings very good numbers into tonight's matchup. For the Royals, Yordano Ventura has given up 5 ER in B2B starts and has just been terrible on the road thus far w/ a 7.07 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three starts. Considering his offense is just outside the bottom five in runs scored, it's tough to like the team's chances here. Also, KC is just 2-11 its last 13 away games overall.
The Yankees have won four of five and though Michael Pineda has been just as bad as Ventura of late, I'll side w/ him as he's likely to receive more support from his offense here. New York has scored at least six runs in five of its last nine games. Pineda, despite the poor numbers, has actually allowed 2 ER in four of his last five starts. It's two admittedly poor showings that are still skewing his overall numbers. He's looked good in two previous showings here at Yankee Stadium against the Royals (allowed only one run in 13+ IP).