Will Rogers
Oklahoma City vs. Golden State
Pick: Oklahoma City
Even after upsetting the Spurs in six games in the Western Conference semi finals, nobody expected the Thunder to come into Oracle Arena and beat Golden State in Game 1. They may have taken the Warriors by surprise in the series opener, and it's going to be very difficult to duplicate that performance in Game 2. That being said, this line appears to be inflated, and I'll take the points.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. The Thunder's Defense - The fact that Oklahoma City has bags of offensive talent has never been in doubt, but the team really buckled down on defense against the Spurs. San Antonio scored opened the series with a 124-92 victory but was held to an average of 96.8 points per game in the following five.
2. Road Warriors - The Thunder have won five of their six road games in the postseason and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
3. X-Factor - Oklahoma City has long been considered a two-man team and to reliant on Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but let's not forget center Steven Adams who averaged 11 points on 70.3 percent shooting and 11.8 rebounds in the six games against San Antonio.
DAVE COKIN
DODGERS VS. ANGELS
PLAY: DODGERS +100
Mike Bolsinger is getting the callup to the Dodgers for a spot start tonight. Bolsinger just recently got back into action after starting the season on the shelf with an oblique injury. This could be a one and done for the righty as the consensus is he’ll be optioned back out following tonight’s appearance. But if Bolsinger comes through with a good performance, that would seemingly have a chance to change.
Bolsinger surprised me last season, as I honestly didn’t look at him as a regular rotation guy at this level. Fact is, if you look at what Bolsinger throws and the similarity in his pitches, he really shouldn’t be succeeding at this level. But Bolsinger was pretty respectable last season, and he might just be one of those guys who is able to find a way to exceed general expectations.
Nick Tropeano gets the call for the Halos tonight. Tropeano’s success or failure is very dependent on first pitch strikes. He does a good job nibbling and generating bad swings when he’s ahead on the count. But Tropeano does not have dominant stuff and when he has to try and beat hitters in the zone, things don’t go well at all. He’s been having trouble keeping pitch counts down and as a result Tropeano is not finding himself able to get past the fifth inning. All save of his 2016 starts have ended short of six complete innings. That means multiple innings for an Angels bullpen that isn’t the most reliable on the planet these days and has also been shouldering a heavy workload.
The Angels had their surprising winning streak snapped last night. Credit where it’s due, the Halos really showed some grit in grabbing a stunning sweep at Seattle over the weekend and followed that with an exciting win over the Dodgers on Monday night. But the bats were silenced last night by the inimitable Clayton Kershaw and while Bolsinger is hardly in that class, I’m not averse to fading the Angels now that the mini-run concluded. Granted, it’s off last year’s number for Bolsinger, but I give him an edge over Tropeano and most of the other check marks are on the road team’s side as well.
Chances are I’ll have to sweat that high risk Dodger bullpen bridge to Kenley Jansen. Nevertheless I make the Dodgers the favorite here and at even money or better, they’re the side for me tonight.
Sleepyj
Mariners / Orioles Under 8.5
I'll take a stab at the under in this one..Two good pitchers on the mound and the bats should be less active in this one..8.5 seems a bit high IMO...Walker and Tillman can show up here and have a productive game on both sides.
Brewers +1.5 -105
I faded Lackey in his last start grabbing the RL with Atlanta..Came up winners outright in that one....Lackey on the road now hanging a big price again..I don't buy it one bit...That Cubs hot run has ended and the books are still hanging crazy numbers..I have no problem taking a shot with the Brewers here grabbing +1.5.
Marc Lawrence
San Francisco vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego +125
Edges - Padres: Drew Pomeranz 6-0 with 2.12 ERA home career team starts during May. Giants: 4-9 last thirteen team starts in this series. With Pomeranz 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP at home this season, we recommend a 1* play on San Diego.
Matt Josephs
Astros vs. White Sox
Play: Over 8½
Mat Latos may not have lost yet this year, but he's coming back to earth in other peripherals. Latos is 5-0 with a 3.40 ERA in seven starts although he has just 19 strikeouts. The righty has allowed 13 runs and 25 hits in his last three games with his last one featuring zero strikeouts and five walks. Jose Altuve (4-8.), Colby Rasmus (6-11) and Luis Valbuena (4-14) each have had their success against the Chicago starter. Houston 's offense has scored four runs or more in four straight and seven of their last nine. Doug Fister is 3-3 with a 4.22 ERA in seven starts for the Astros. Fister has a 3.72 ERA in nine career starts against the White Sox whom he faced a lot when he was with the Tigers. Melky Cabrera (5-14), Alex Avila (3-7) and Todd Frazier (3-8.) have good numbers vs. the righty. The White Sox offense is in good form right now averaging over five runs per game in their last eight. The Astros bullpen has been a mess on the road. This one has the makings of an over.
John Ryan
Game 2 Boston vs. Kansas City
Play: Boston -1½ +117
Technical Discussion Points: The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is a solid 16-5 (+11.5 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season;
Fundamental Discussion Points Both starters are in strong form, but I really like Steven Wright in this matchup. He has posted a 2.36 ERA with a 1.139 WHIP spanning 45 2/3 innings of work and has struck out 41 batters. KC has never faced him and that is a huge advantage for Wright. Scouting reports can provide key information about pitches and sequences and situational outcomes, but actually facing that pitcher in live game situations is far different.
Boston has the third best record in baseball and is the best offense scoring 5.97 RPG with an amazing 0.297 team batting average. They are averaging 10.62 hits per game and 2.62 doubles per game, which puts up a lot of crooked numbers on the scoreboard. I just don’t see Kennedy being able to contain the Sox offense.
Jim Feist
Dodgers vs. Angels
Play: Over 8.5
The Dodgers have a fine offense, No. 12 in baseball in run scored, and pick up the DH for this Interleague game. The Over is 6-2 when the Dodgers play interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. Ross Stripling goes for the Dodgers, with a losing record and a 4.26 ERA. He comes off a win but didn't pitch well in an 8-4 win, allowing 8 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks in 5 innings. the Angels are 10-1-1 over the total in interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. The Angels have Nick Tropeano going, with a losing record and a lot of walks, 20 walks, 40 hits allowed in 36+ innings. And the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Big Al
Minnesota vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
There was much optimism surrounding Tigers RH Justin Verlander coming out of a very successful Spring training at the end of March. Verlander looked very good for the most part in the practice rounds, with his velocity generally increasing although still not at the point where it was a few years ago when the now-33-year-old was considered one of the best starters in the league. But Verlander's Spring form didn't translate to the regular season for much of April as he got off to an ugly start, and after his first start in May he was carrying a 2-3 record with a 6.49 ERA. But his last two starts (May 8 & 13) have seen much improvement as Verlander has thrown a combined 15 innings, allowing one run on seven hits with 17 strikeouts and just four walks, lowering that ERA to 4.71. Verlander has also shown an affinity for his home park so far this season, posting a 4.38 ERA in four starts there, vs. 5.04 in four starts elsewhere. A start against the Twins is perhaps a great way to keep his momentum going as Verlander is 15-8 with a 3.12 ERA in 30 lifetime starts.vs. Minnie.
Ray Monohan
Thunder vs. Warriors
Play: Thunder +8½
The Thunder open up around the same number as they did in Game 1 and this will surely be a heavy bet game on the side of the Warriors for the public. That gives the Thunder solid value here, especially at this high of a number.
Oklahoma City proved they aren't afraid of anybody. They went into Oracle Arena in Game 1 and erased a 13 point deficit to steal a win. This team is impressive and showed they can stop the Warriors high flying attack. They forced Oklahoma City into some bad shooting in Game 1 in that 4th quarter. However, don't expect them to hold them down for long.
This game will be a shootout, but the Thunder have the pieces to keep pace with the Warriors, which is what most other teams don't have.
Some trends to consider. Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Oklahoma City will keep this one close as they've shown us enough that they can compete with the Warriors.
Mike Lundin
Braves vs. Pirates
Play: Under 7
The Pittsburgh Pirates can complete the sweep of this three-game set with another win Wednesday night. We have seen a total of 34 runs scored over the first two, but I don't expect to see much action over the plate in this contest.
Julio Teheran (0-4, 3.17 ERA) will take the ball for Atlanta. He has held opponents to two runs or fewer in all but two of his eight starts this year and the right-hander has posted a 1.44 ERA over his last five outings. Teheran has the current Pirates roster limited to a .235 batting average over 51 at bats.
The Pirates turn to Francisco Liriano (3-2, 4.99) who's coming off his worst start of the year when he gave up eight runs on nine hits and four walks with three homers in 4 2/3 innings of a 9-2 loss at Wrigley Field. Liriano has however held opponents to one run and eight hits ovr 12 2/3 innings of work home at PNC Park this year. Liriano has the current Braves roster limited to a .197 batting average over 117 at bats.
Under is 29-11-1 in the last 41 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers -150
I'm backing Detroit at home against the Twins on Wednesday. The Tigers come into this game having won 3 straight behind an offensive explosion, where they have scored 23 runs on 37 hits. The offense is in a great spot to keep it going. Minnesota will send out the struggling Ricky Nolasco, who has a ugly 7.56 ERA and 1.560 WHIP over his last 3 starts, allowing at least 4 earned runs in each outing. Nolasco has a 4.32 ERA and 1.470 WHIP over 6 starts against the Tigers and allowed 5 runs on 8 hits in just 5 2/3 innings in his lone start against them this season.
Even if the Tigers offense doesn't put up a huge number, I still like their chances of securing a victory. Detroit will counter with Justin Verlander, who is coming off back-to-back dominant starts. Verlander allowed just 3 hits with 9 strikeouts over 7 scoreless innings against the Rangers at home on 5/8 and followed that up by allowing just 1 run on 4 hits with 8 strikeouts at Baltimore on 5/13.
Tigers won yesterday's meeting 7-2 and the Twins are just 1-12 this season after scoring 2 runs or less. Detroit has also won all 5 meetings this season and Minnesota is 0-12 when playing with at least triple-revenge. The Twins are also 0-9 in their last 9 as a road dog of +125 to +150.
Brandon Shively
Rockies vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8
The Rockies have won five straight games now as they are streaking and they have a good matchup against the Cardinals Adam Wainwright tonight. If you are an avid baseball fan, then you know that Wainwright has not done too much ‘right’ this season, as it’s been more like ‘Adam Waywrong’. While the Rockies might get another win tonight, I am a bit worried about their starter, Chris Rusin, and feel the best play on this game is to go ‘Over the Total’.
Wainwright has a 6.23 ERA for the month of May. His xFIP for the season is a 4.66 which is nothing to brag about. The OVER is 6-2 in his eight starts this season, including 4-0 his last four.
The Over is 2-0 in Chris Rusin’s two starts this month, as he has a 9.90 ERA. Three of Rusin’s six appearances this season have finished with 16, 22, and 24 runs as their have been high scoring games on nights that his name gets called. Rusin faced the Cardinals last year and got smacked for 6 runs off of 10 hits in a 9-8 game that finished with 17 runs.
The Rockies are ranked 5th in the Majors in weighted On Base Average the last seven days. For the season, the Rockies rank in the Top 5 in slugging percentage and batting average. This is a balanced lineup that should be able to touch up Wainwright for at least 4 runs. I also feel the Cardinals can score at least four runs or more off Rusin who more than likely will not throw over 90 pitches and the Rockies bullpen is still not solidified as one with a ‘shut-down’ closer.
Matt Carpenter, who bats leadoff for the Cards, has two homeruns off Rusin in 8 career At Bats.
While I’m not going to call for a Saint Louis win, the ‘over’ is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and the ‘over’ is 9-1-2 in Cardinals last 12 games following a loss. Asking both teams to score four runs or more here is not too much to ask given the pitching matchup and the above trends paired with a ‘hot’ Rockies lineup currently.
Larry Ness
Dodgers at Angels
Play: Angels
The Angels beat the Dodgers 7-6 on Monday but fell 5-1 to Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday. The Angels averaged 6.4 runs in a four-game winning streak prior to managing only Shane Robinson's RBI single and three other hits against Clayton Kershaw and closer Kenley Jansen. The 17-22 Angels appear close to adding some veteran help to a makeshift rotation, reportedly nearing a deal with two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. Could he aid a rotation that has a 4.72 ERA and is without C.J. Wilson (shoulder), Garrett Richards (elbow) and Andrew Heaney (flexor muscle)? “His best days are behind him," one scout told MLB's official website of Lincecum. "But he could be serviceable."
The addition of Lincecum, who last pitched in the majors June 27 and is coming off hip surgery, could provide an emotional boost if and when it happens but for now, the Angels must regroup after their four-game winning streak ended with Tuesday's 5-1 loss at Dodger Stadium, as the “Freeway Series” now shifts to Anaheim for two games Wednesday and Thursday. Mike Bolsinger, who was 6-6 with a 3.62 ERA over 21 starts in 2015 (Dodgers were 11-10), makes his 2016 debut. The Angels will get their first look at him, as he’ll be activated off the DL to start this contest, giving the other Dodgers starters some extra rest. After suffering a strained oblique muscle during spring training, the right-hander posted a 2.25 ERA in two starts in Triple-A. "We're optimistic that he'll get us, for sure, through five (innings) and hopefully beyond," manager Dave Roberts said. "At that point in time, it's nice when you have Kershaw going the day prior."
The Angels send Nick Tropeano (1-2, 3.68 ERA)to the mound and he’s allowed two or fewer runs in FIVE of his seven starts (Angels are 3-4) but hasn't completed six innings in any of those starts, while averaging 97.4 pitches in his outings. Tropeano settled for a no-decision at Seattle on Friday, allowing two runs and five hits. He’s still winless in six starts since notching his lone victory of 2016 in his season debut at Oakland back on April 11. Yes, Tropeano has yet to last six innings in any start but he has also allowed more than just two runs just TWICE in seven starts. These days, that’s not all bad. I’ll take the home team.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA +102 over Miami
For whatever reason, this market just does not believe in the Phillies success. We do, at least for now. What we know for sure is that the Phillies closer leads the majors in saves with 15. The Phillies are six games above .500 and several players are swinging a hot stick. Now Tom Koehler is favored over Jeremy Hellickson, which is just not right. Once upon a time, a near-4 ERA and 1.30ish WHIP would hold some value. In today’s pitching-heavy world, not so much. Koehler’s mediocre command will continue due to his marginal first-pitch strike rate, swinging strike rate and history of near-4 ERA. Koehler’s steadily rising xERA trend seals his fate. There's nothing here worth speculating on. With Koehler, what you see is what you get and it’s not getting better.
Jeremy Hellickson quietly was one of the more skilled starter in the NL in April with 9.7 K’s/9, 2.1 BB’s/9 and an xERA of 3.37. Hellickson’s command resurgence came with the support of an 11% swing and miss rate, 63% first-pitch strike rate, and 34% ball%. His change-up (24% swing and miss rate) and curveball (15% swing and miss rate) give him two off-speed pitches that can be dominant. Hellickson has 46 K’s in 44 frames. His swing and miss rate was 19% in his last game and is up to 14% overall. His great skills in April have carried over to May and after a career of mostly mediocrity, this former top prospect may be finally figuring it out. In terms of value at this point of the season and regardless of outcome, Koehler is wrongly favored on the road against Hellickson.
Colorado/ST. LOUIS Over 8
This is a pitcher’s park but there isn’t a park in the continent that can help these two stiffs. First, there’s Chris Rusin who has started seven games with the final scores in four of those being 17-7, 12-10, 10-6 and 13-6. In his last start at home against Arizona, Rusin lost 5-1 but allowed 10 hits and two walks in 5.2 frames. Over his last two starts, Rusin has been tagged for 23 hits with four walks in 10 innings. He also hit one batter so that would be 28 baserunners over his last 10 frames. In other words, Dude is pitching with the bases loaded almost every inning. Rusin’s flat 89 MPH fastball is batting practice and the fact that he’s often behind in the count makes him even more susceptible to getting blown up.
Then there’s Adam Wainwright. Wainwright had his 2015 season ruined by an Achilles injury he suffered in April. Now back in the rotation, he's off to a rocky start in 2016 and it does not look good for him moving forward. Wainwright’s strikeout rate is lacking, and though he's recorded 12 punch outs over his last three outings, he only got 18 total swings and misses in those starts. His velocity is down from his usual level, and his swing and miss rate is low at 7%. A combination of shaky skills and a low strand rate has led to Wainwright’s 6.80 ERA. His xERA shows he hasn't been quite as bad as the numbers indicate but even that is shaky at 4.98. Coming off a major injury and three years removed from posting elite skills, Wainwright’s steady decline is showing no signs of a rebound. Colorado’s batting lineup is rock solid and they figure to put up at least three runs and maybe more. Chris Rusin and the Rocks pen will likely serve up the rest.
Power Sports
Chicago vs. Milwaukee
Play: Chicago
The Cubs have begun to "slow down" in recent days, actually dropping four of six, including the series opener here in Milwaukee last night. While they've now dropped B2B games for the second time in less than a week, the good news is they have yet to drop three in a row at any point in 2016. I think they keep that trend alive as tonight they should bounce back against the lowly Brew Crew.
Starter John Lackey may only have a 4-3 team start record, but his WHIP is 0.972, so clearly he has been pitching well. He's off a very hard luck loss in his last outing, where one mistake (allowed solo HR) was the difference in the game as the team lost 1-0 to San Diego. Otherwise, Lackey allowed just two hits over the course of eight innings. While it's true that he's had a couple of rough outings on the road this year, he did shut out the Cardinals (his former team) in St. Louis for seven innings. More good news is the fact that last year w/ the Cardinals, Lackey went 3-0 w/ a 1.85 ERA in five starts vs. Milwaukee.
The Brewers got an incredible effort from their starter Chase Anderson last night, but I would not expect the same here from Jimmy Nelson, who is 0-4 in six career starts vs. the Cubs. Sure, Nelson has arguably been the club's top starter thus far, but that's not saying much. Furthermore, the Cubs have the NL's best offense (5.8 rpg) and still are outscoring opponents by nearly three full runs per game. More impressive is that they're outscoring teams by four full runs per game on the road! Look for the Cubbies to improve to 8-1 off a loss.