DAVE COKIN
DIAMONDBACKS AT PIRATES
PLAY: DIAMONDBACKS +108
Rubby De La Rosa has always had the big arm and lots of potential. Putting the pieces together for the Arizona righty hasn’t been so easy, and he’s endured some pretty rough stretches while wearing a few different uniforms. But 2016 might be the breakout for De La Rosa. He has displayed some substantial improvement in a variety of areas and while I don’t know that he’s ever going to be an ace, Rubby is establishing himself as a solid rotation piece for the Snakes. The big improvement for Rubby DLR has been his ability to handle lefty hitters, which had been a huge issue for him previously.
The same cannot be said for Pirates lefty Jeff Locke. I will be surprised if Locke remains in the Pittsburgh rotation for much longer as there are a couple of prime young prospects on the way. Locke just hasn’t been able to achieve any consistency and his 2016 numbers are simply lousy.
If you’re into the metrics, this is a pretty clear cut choice on the pitching front. De La Rosa is well more than one run better than Locke right down the line, pretty much regardless of what criteria one gives the most weight to, and yet he’s the underdog in this matchup.
There’s always something negative, it seems, and my one concern here is up the middle with Jean Segura certainly out for this game and I would suspect Nick Ahmed will be sitting it out as well. Hopefully, that won’t be the difference in this clash, although I certainly don’t like the idea of my side being without Segura, who is a real key at the top of the order.
The Diamondbacks were absolutely destroyed on Tuesday night, so I’m hoping that humiliation will get them charged up for some quick revenge tonight against the Bucs. Certainly there’s always the chance De La Rosa steps backward for an evening, or Locke could throw it well for a change. But on paper, there’s a big edge for De La Rosa against Locke and I’m catching a small plus on the money line to boot. I’ll give Rubby a roll here and will back the Diamondbacks tonight.
DAVE COKIN
TORONTO AT CLEVELAND
PLAY: CLEVELAND -10.5
Give the Raptors credit, they dominated early and just when it looked they were going to fall apart, got it back together. But Cleveland now goes back home and they're going to be in the strongest aspect of the zigzag theory, As previously mentioned, overall this is a breakeven myth angle. But where it really works well is big favorite off a loss, particularly a substantial one in terms of margin. I'm not sure six points qualifies as a substantial margin, but just the way the game played out it sure felt like more than that. The Cavs were really bad in the two games at Toronto. I think getting back home solves that issue and I'll be really surprised if Toronto keeps this competitive. Looks to me like it ought to be a rerun of the first two games, so I'm giving the points here with the Cavs.
Rob Vinciletti
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs -155
Chicago has Arietta going and they are 9-0 in his starts as he has a solid 0.97 Era this year and is 5-1 vs the Cards. C. Martinez counters for the Cardinals and he has a 4.03 home Era. St. Louis has lost 8 of 10 when the posted total is 7 or less. Chicago has won 20 of 25 on the road vs teams behind them in the standings and 17-8 vs winning teams. Chicago also fits a solid 21-4 league wide system that pertains to road favorites off a road win by 5+ runs scoring 10 or more runs. Look for the Cubs to take another.
Mike Lundin
Mets vs. Nationals
Play: Mets +103
The New York Mets have won six straight Steven Matz starts. I think they'll make it seven on the bounce as they take on the Washington Nationals in the rubber match of this three-game series between the two division foes Wednesday afternoon.
Matz (6-1, 2.81 ERA) will make his first start against the Nats and has allowed just a total of six runs in six starts since struggling through his season-debut. The left-hander was forced to skip a start due to elbow soreness but came back fresh as a dasiy in Friday's 3-2 win against Milwaukee with just two runs on three hits conceded with eight Ks over seven innings of work.
The Nats turn to Tanner Roark (3-3, 2.89) who has struggled with his consistency this season. Roark has surrendered four runs or more in four of his nine starts but just two in the other five. He was tagged with seven runs on eight hits in five innings of a 7-1 loss to the Fish his last time out in front of the home fans.
Roark followed that up by tossing 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball at Miami on Friday, but we can note that the Nationals are 0-8 in Roark's last eight starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Stephen Nover
Miami at Tampa Bay
Play: Miami +170
I find this to be an excellent spot to take a nice price in a game that should be very close.
The Marlins have a better record than Tampa Bay. The Marlins also are 9-3 the past 12 times when taking on a below .500 opponent.
This isn't a good situation for the Rays. It's their first home game in 10 days. Tampa Bay is 4-10 when playing its first home game following a road trip of seven or more days.
Tampa Bay is down two of its better and more underrated players as both Logan Forsythe and Kevin Kiermaier are out with injuries. In addition, the Rays are likely to not have closer Alex Colome. He had a two-inning save last night and also pitched on Monday. If Colome does come in, he'll carry a high fatigue rating.
That gives the Marlins a solid bullpen edge. Their closer, A.J. Ramos, is a perfect 14-for-14 in save opportunities. David Phelps has been one of the best setup men this season with a 1.38 ERA.
It's a plus if Christian Yelich returns to Miami's lineup today. He's been day-to-day with a sore back. Streaky Giancarlo Stanton is showing signs of ending his slump. He homered last night.
The starting pitching matchup is southpaw Justin Nicolino versus Matt Andriese, who had a 4.11 ERA in 65 2/3 inning last season. That was his first year in the big leagues. The 26-year-old Andriese was recalled from Triple A this month. He'll be making his fourth start. The line is so high because the oddsmaker is impressed that Andriese is 3-0 so far.
I'm not as impressed. Andriese was lucky to win his last start giving up four runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings during a 7-5 road victory against the Tigers this past Friday. I think he's fade material as his starts begin to accumulate. The Marlins had a brief look at him last season when he pitched against them in relief.
Nicolino isn't a great prospect either. He's had two strong performances in five starts this season. His edge is being a lefty. The Rays are 4-12 during their last 16 interleague games against a southpaw. The Marlins are 4-1, too, when Nicolino has gone against a sub .500 foe.
Marc Lawrence
Baltimore at Houston
Play: Baltimore +125
Edges - Orioles: Tyler Wilson 4-1 away career team starts; and 2-0 away with 3.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this season. Astros: Colin McHugh 0-3 team starts versus A.L. East foes this season, and 5.13 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP this season. With Houston just 11-22 at night this season, and the Orioles 21-10 under the lights at night this campaign, we recommend a 1* play on Baltimore.
Scott Spreitzer
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates
Play: Over 8½
Pirate hurler Jeff Locke threw a decent game last time out, but that was against the lowly Braves. He went into the outing with a 5.45 ERA and still has a WHIP of nearly 1.60 on the season. Locke, a lefty, will face an Arizona lineup that's been at its best on the road. The Diamondbacks rank in the top-nine in MLB in road batting average, OBP, and OPS. They have also clocked southpaws all season, ranked in the top-six in the same three offensive categories. In fact, they have been dynamite at the plate against left-handers since the start of the 2015 season. Rubby De La Rosa counters for Arizona and will face one of the best offensive home teams in the game. The right-handers' road work has not been too hot since he start of the 2013 season, whether starting or coming out of the pen. We expect Pittsburgh to get to him in his first outing since May 15 (groin). Then there's the case of the Diamondback bullpen, which owns one of the highest ERA's in the entire league and will have to work at PNC, the park with the 9th highest OPS in MLB. Arizona has played to the Over in five straight road games, while the Bucs have sailed Over in seven straight Jeff Locke home starts.
Art Aronson
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates
Play: Over 8
The visitors hand the ball to Rubby De La Rosa (4-4, 3.53 ERA) who had his last start skipped because of a groin strain. In his last outing De La Rosa gave up one run over seven innings in victory over the Rockies last Tuesday. De La Rosa has been as solid as Arizona could possibly hope for since he was put into the rotation, but if he’s had one weak spot this season it’s been his play on the road where he’s a poor 2-3 with a pedestrian 4.19 ERA. The home side counters with Jeff Locke (2-3, 5.00) who held the punchless Braves to two runs off six hits over seven innings in the eventual victory on Thursday. Note though that Locke owns a poor 5.23 ERA in all “night” games thus far. Consistency from game to game is something neither of these starters has demonstrated and that does indeed make the OVER worthy of a second look in this matchup.
Jim Feist
Marlins vs. Rays
Play: Over 8
This small park, great for hitters, and Miami picks up the DH for this series. Miami is fifth in baseball in on base percentage, but the pitching is young and suspect, No. 17 in team ERA. The over is 35-16-2 in the Marlins last 53 vs. a team with a losing record. Starter John Nicolino has failed to complete six innings in either of his past two starts Tampa Bay is home, on a 10-1-2 run over the total. Starter Matt Andriese allowed four runs on five hits, walking two and striking out three while lasting just 5.1 innings in a 7-5 win over Detroit on Friday night. And the Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Bob Harvey
Toronto at Cleveland
Play: Toronto +11
After winning 10 straight games to open the playoffs, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been brought down to earth by the Toronto Raptors who have evened the Eastern Conference Finals at 2-2. The two teams meet tonight in Game 5 at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland where the Cavs are favored by +11 with the total at 199.
The Raptors (66-34, 52-48 ATS) got a combined 67 points on 28-of-43 shooting from their All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry (35) and DeRozan (32). The Raptors continue to receive an unexpected lift from defensive stalwart Bismack Biyombo, who has averaged 20 rebounds and 3.5 blocked shots over the past two games.
After winning the first two games by an average of 25 points, the Cavaliers (67-27, 44-27 ATS) have proven they’re invincible after all. LeBron James scored a postseason-high 29 points in Game 4 and has tallied 20 or more points in each of Cleveland's 12 playoff games. Kyrie Irving added 26 points but Kevin Love was mostly ineffective average 6.5 points per game in the past two in Toronto.
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
Toronto is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games following a straight up win and 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. the NBA Central. Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 0-4 vs. the number in their last four road games.
The Raptors are 9-2 to the UNDER in their last 11 and 12-4 in their last 16 games following an ATS win.
The Cavs are 12-5 to the OVER in the past 17 conference finals
Cleveland is 49-24 to the UNDER in their past 73 vs. the Atlantic Division.
Sleepyj
Cardinals +1.5 -115
I know...I know....Arrieta is a monster....He is the best pitcher in the league right now and going against him is a tough out...Laying this kind of price on the road IMO is justified....The RL offers us value though..Paying just -115 with Martinez on the mound and at home looks good here...I don;t play the he's "DUE" often, but Arrieta is "due" to have some kind of a hiccup...If it does happen, I think it happens on the road in division Vs.a good team and pitcher...In other words..If we have a chance here to keep it close Vs. this guy...It's this game..I'll take a stab getting the +1.5 with the redbirds.
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Over in the Blues-Sharks ice hockey battle.
Ken Hitchcock got the result he wanted on Saturday when he sat goalie Brian Elliott, as the Blues woke up after back-to-back shutouts and put up 6 on the Sharks in a road win. The results didn't work out so well on the return to home ice on Monday, as the Blues Jake Allen gave up a ton of goals, as the Sharks have now netted 9 goals the past 2 games!
In fact, the last pair of games have seen the team combine for a whopping 9 goals and a pair of Overs after a slew of series Unders.
I think you ride this offensive eruption once again on Wednesday night, as elimination is now on the line for the visiting Blues who will definitely pull their keeper a few minutes earlier than normal should they be trailing come the closing minutes of Game 6.
Make it 3 in a row Over for the Blues and Sharks.
3* ST. LOUIS-SAN JOSE OVER
Teddy Davis
Angels vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -120
The Rangers were my premium play last night and came away with a win and like to them to win the series here today with Colby Lewis taking the mound. He has been a bright spot for their rotation going 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA on the season. His last three starts have been very good having an ERA of 1.71. While Hector Santiago has pitched well on the road for the Angels his last 3 starts hasn't been impressive with an ERA of 4.80. The Rangers also hit lefties very well averaging 4.5 runs a game
John Ryan
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Blue Jays -102
Technical Discussion Points There are no supporting systems for this play, but that does undermine the 10* grading. The Technical and Fundamental discussion points serve only to reinforce and support he SIM Algorithm grading. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Yankees are a miserable 28-46 (-24.1 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points Yankees are hot and have climbed the mountain back to 0.500, but tonight’s game is going to be a very tough one to win. Nova has been spectacular posting a 1.65 ERA and a 0.979 WHIP in his 3 starts this season, but he is now facing a very potent power hitting Blue Jays lineup. He has allowed a HR in 2 of those 3 starts and it may be more than that tonight. Nova is just 5-4 in 13 career starts against Toronto with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.405 WHIP. Toronto starts Estrada and he has posted a solid 3.77 ERA with a 1.256 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Yankees. Take Toronto.
Alex Smart
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs -160
The Cubs starter/ace Arrieta is the real deal, failure just isnt in his vocabulary. He's won 19 straight and is a must back hurler playing for one of the best teams in MLB. The RH is 4-1 with a 1.63 ERA in nine starts against the Cardinals,Meanwhile, the Cardinals starting thrower Martinez has dropped his last four and hasn’t pitched past the fifth in any of the three more recent trips to the hill. Fade the Cards who are just 13-14 at home this season, and lay the lumber with the Cubs.
Note: In the Cubs 30 victories this season, their average margin of victory rings in at 5.1 rpg.