Matt Josephs
Orioles vs. Astros
Play: Over 8½
Tyler Wilson is 2-2 with a 4.39 ERA in five starts for the Orioles with four of them going over the total. Wilson doesn't blow anyone away with his stuff sporting just 14 strikeouts to eight walks in 28.7 innings as a starter. He has never started against Houston who is averaging around four runs per game this season. Their offense has struggled for consistency, but I think they can get off on Wednesday. Collin McHugh is 4-4 with a 5.13 ERA in nine starts with five of them going over the total. McHugh was shelled by Baltimore last year allowing eight runs and 15 hits in 13 innings. This is an Orioles offense that is averaging over four runs per game and is hitting around .260 on the road. Houston's bullpen is mighty vulnerable and Wilson doesn't go deep for the road team. There are plenty of chances for runs in this one.
Brad Wilton
Wednesday night comp play winner is the Rockies and Red Sox to head Over the posted total.
Strong chance the hot-hitting Red Sox get us close to this total all by themselves.
Boston plated 8 runs last night, as Jackie Bradley Jr. extended his hitting streak to 27 games.
The Sox are averaging close to 9 runs per game over a 12-2 home stretch their last 14 games, and they are batting .352 as a team with 20 home runs over their last 13 home dates!
Chad Bettis owns a 4.74 ERA the last three times he has made the start, with 2 of his 3 starts making their way Over the total.
Steven Wright has been hit his last couple of trips to the mound, as 8 earned runs have crossed in his last 12-plus innings worked.
Hitters own the night tonight.
Rockies-Red Sox Over the total.
4* COLORADO-BOSTON OVER
DWAYNE BRYANT
Cincinnati at Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -164
Long-term clients have heard this from me many, many times: Value can be found in ANY price range, even heavy favorites. In this case, my line for this game is Dodgers -190. So with about 25 points of value, this is a definite play.
The Reds are just plain awful. They are just 3-16 on the road and they have lost NINE straight games. So why should we think they will win tonight? They average just 3.5 runs per game against lefties, and LA has hit Dan Straily well in limited opportunities.
Scott Kazmir has certainly been nothing special, but the Dodgers will have a HUGE edge when the bullpens get involved. The Reds have arguably the worst bullpen in the entire league, and I can certainly see LA plating a few against them.
Chalky? Maybe, but I still see value so I have to fire.
Ray Monohan
Baltimore Orioles +125
The Orioles and Astros continue their series and Baltimore at this price is a nice play.
Baltimore did fall in the series opener, but the Astros have had problems all season long putting together wins. The Astros is still struggling to score, as they put up just 3 runs once again.
Tyler Wilson will go for the Orioles and he hasn't been bad this season. Wilson has shown signs of brilliance as he has pitched 6.0 innings in 3 of his last 4 starts. This is an important start for him as he has a chance to really solidify himself within this rotation.
Colin McHugh goes for Houston and he has struggled at time this season. McHugh has an ERA of 5.13 on the season and in his career against Baltimore he sits with an ERA of 4.66.
Some trends to consider. Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Orioles are 13-3 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series.
At plus money, along with McHugh's struggles, the Orioles hold the value in this matchup.
Brandon Lee
White Sox -113
Chicago is worth a look here at home against the Indians in Wednesday's series finale. Cleveland just handed Chris Sale his first loss of the season last night and are primed for a letdown against what will be a very motivated White Sox team. Hard to not like Chicago's chances in this one, as they send out Jose Quintana, who is 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 4 home starts. Quintana is also 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 12 career starts against the Indians. He's been especially dominant of late in the series, allowing just 3 runs over his last 4 starts against Cleveland. The Indians will give the ball to Corey Kluber, who has been hit or miss all season. Kluber pitched well in his last outing, but has a 4.10 ERA overall in 9 starts and has given up 6 runs in two of his last 3 outings against the White Sox. Chicago is 21-7 on the season as a favorite of -110 or more and 15-3 in their last 18 home games after a loss by 4 or more runs.
ASA
Angels vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9½
The Rangers Colby Lewis has a history of struggling in home starts in hitter-friendly Texas. In 2014 Lewis went 3-9 at home with a 5.90 ERA. Last season he had a much better record at home but it was "thanks to run support" as certainly his 5.07 ERA in home starts was not impressive. This season, even though he has a 3.55 ERA so far at home, he has been hit hard at a .272 clip in home starts and the Angels have gotten to him for 25 hits in 16 innings in his last three starts against them. The Angels just saw Lewis in late April and they will be ready to jump on him after losing yesterday's game 4-1. The Angels will have southpaw Hector Santiago toeing the rubber this afternoon in Texas and the left-hander gave up 3 homers in a start that lasted less than 3 innings in his most recent outing. Santiago has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts overall. Also, versus the Rangers, the Angels lefty has given up 7 earned runs on 13 hits in his last 2 starts at Texas and those outings totaled less than 10 innings. The over is 11-5 in Rangers home games this season when the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs.
Jimmy Boyd
Mets/Nationals Under 7½
I really like the value we are getting on the total in today's afternoon matchup between the Mets and Nationals. These two teams have went over the total in each of the first two games of the series, as both offenses have taken advantage of a poor outing from the opposing pitcher. This time I don't see either team putting up a big number.
New York will send out Steven Matz, who is 6-1 with a 1.056 WHIP in 7 starts. Pitching on the road has been no problem for Matz, as he is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in 3 starts. He's also yet to allow an earned run in a day game this season, throwing 14 2/3 scoreless innings over 2 starts.
Washington counters with Tanner Roark, who is one of the more underrated starters in the league because of the rotation that he's in. Roark comes in with a 2.89 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 9 starts. He's allowed 1 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 6 outings. He too has thrived in day games, posting a 1.12 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 4 starts.
UNDER is 5-1 in the Mets last 6 after a loss and 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 5 or more runs. UNDER is also 13-4-4 in the Nationals last 21 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 4-0-1 in Roark's last 5 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game.
Vegas Butcher
Philadelphia Phillies +100
Nola is my #3 ranked starter while Sanchez is 138th out of about 150 qualified pitchers. Tigers have never seen Nola before so the unfamiliarity-factor plus a huge disparity in current ability makes this one an easy play.
Texas Rangers -114
In the month of May Hector Santiago has an xFIP of 6.1 while Colby Lewis is at 3.2. The odds are fair here but Rangers have an advantage based on ‘current form’ of their starter.
San Diego Padres +125
Peavy isn’t as bad as his 8.2 ERA indicates (4.9 xFIP) but he’s not better than Shields (4.0 xFIP) regardless. Plus Shields is coming off a pretty strong performance against the Giants in his last start. I have this one at +110 SD so will back them in this spot.
Arizona Diamondbacks +107
Rubby De La Rosa has been lights out against righties this year – 30% K-rate; 2.9 xFIP. Pittsburgh’s key hitters are mostly right-handers: McCutchen, Kang, Marte, Harrison. Coming off an extend ‘rest’ period, I like DLR’s chances of pitching well here. By comparison, Locke and his 5.1 SIERA (140th out of 150) will be facing a DBacks lineup that ranks top-5 against lefties. I love these key advantages in Arizona’s favor and expect them to get it done tonight.
BUSTER SPORTS
Toronto at New York
Play: Toronto -105
The Blue Jays got shutout last night 6-0 and with their best starter going tonight we like the Jays to stop the Yankees 6 game win streak. Estrada has been excellent all year for the Blue Jays, he has a 2.57 ERA and a WHIP of 0.857. Estrada's real problem is run support, as the Blue Jays have struggled at the plate this year in his starts. As for Nova, since coming out of the bullpen he has been very good. This however is a Blue Jays team that knows Nova very well. Nova when starting against the Blue Jays has an ERA of over 5 and a WHIP of 1.405. The two big bats on Toronto, Donaldson and Bautista have hit Nova hard for their careers. With the Blue Jays being shutout yesterday, sending their best pitcher to the mound today, then add to the mix that we see Ivan Nova regressing soon. We believe It all adds up to a victory for the Blue Jays.
Nelly
Raptors vs. Cavs
Pick: Cavs -10.5
Toronto did a great job to hold court at home and get back into this series with back-to-back wins in Toronto. The once 10-0 in the playoffs Cavaliers are now looking a bit vulnerable but they have been dominant at home in the playoffs, going 6-0 with an average margin of victory of 18 points. The complaints from Dwane Casey paid off in Game 4 as the Raptors had a big advantage in fouls for the first time in the series and Toronto wound up shooting almost 54 percent in Game 4, yet they barely held on for the win with Cleveland taking a late lead despite trailing most of the game. Cleveland took 41 3-point shots in Game 4 and they should aim to get back to the inside scoring that led to so much success in the first two games of the series. Kevin Love’s minor injury will be in the headlines but he is not expected to miss this game and while Jonas Valanciunas could return for the Raptors he won’t likely be asked to step into a big role right away. Cleveland is just 9-15 ATS on the road vs. winning teams and while this line is a bit inflated relative to Cleveland’s games with Detroit and Toronto the price is lower than the first two games of the series in Cleveland, games the Cavaliers won by 31 and 19. There is also just a four-point swing going from Toronto to Cleveland for the favored Cavaliers and the more talented and consistent squad should certainly have no shortage of motivation after back-to-back losses to let the Raptors back in the series. This is the first Game 5 of the playoffs for Cleveland and while Toronto has survived some big games already in the playoffs the considerable disparity between the home and road performances continues to grow for the Raptors. Toronto is just 2-6 S/U and ATS on the road in the playoffs and in five of the last six road playoff games the Raptors have lost by double-digits.
Wunderdog
Toronto @ New York
Pick: Under 9
Toronto has gone UNDER the total three straight and four of its last five and the Blue Jays now are 16-28-3 UNDER for the season. The Blue Jays offense hasn't matched last year's output and this year's inflated posted totals. Also, Toronto has gone UNDER in 20 of its last 26 road games. Marco Estrada has a 2.61 ERA and has allowed just 15 earned runs in his last 44 2/3 innings with 42 strikeouts and has pitched much better than his 1-2 record indicates. Ivan Nova is making his third start of the season and has given up only two runs in 11 2/3 innings with New York winning both games. Nova has walked just three batters in 30 1/3 innings. The right-hander has pitched 17 2/3 innings at home and allowed just two runs.
Drew Martin
Oakland at Seattle
Play: Under 8
The Seattle Mariners host the Oakland Athletics for the final game of a three-game set tonight in Safeco Field. The Mariners sit atop the American League West standings and have played well in many facets. The Mariners downfall is they have struggled offensively at home, posting a well below average team OPS of .684. The Athletics have all kinds of issues as well. Oakland’s lineup has been decimated by injuries. Mark Canha and Sam Fuld are lost for the season and they are currently missing Josh Reddick. Over its last six games, Oakland has totaled just 19 runs while batting under .200. On the hill for Seattle will be Hisashi Iwakuma who got off to a tough start to this year’s campaign. He has however pitched much better of late including a 7-inning, 1 earned run effort against the Athletics earlier this month. Zach Neal gets the start for the A’s, Neal is being recalled to make his first major-league start in place of injured ace Sonny Gray. The University of Oklahoma product was 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA in seven starts at Triple-A Nashville. Taking into consideration the Mariners offensive struggles at home, combined with the fact that Iwakuma dominated this A’s lineup just a couple weeks ago. I recommend a wager on the under tonight in the spacious ballpark of Safeco Field.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +106 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates are beautiful, aren’t they? They’re like that beach bully that kicks sand in skinny guys’ face but as soon as a bigger and meaner dude comes calling, beach bully runs for the hills. The Pirates feast on weak teams and weak pitchers. Pittsburgh has won seven of nine, which gives them the feel of a strong team when they are not. They're an overrated team. Here are the seven starters the Pirates have defeated over their past seven wins: Shelby Miller, Jordan Lyles, Eddie Butler, Michael Foltynewicz, Aaron Blair, Williams Perez and Alfredo Simon. We can go on and on about the stiffs the Pirates have defeated this year. When the Pirates recently played the Cardinals they lost two of three. Against the Cubbies this year, the Pirates have lost five of six. The Bucs have feasted on Cinci (8 games), San Diego, Milwaukee, Atlanta and Colorado. The only teams they have played above .500 are St. Louis, Detroit and Chicago and they lost the series to Detroit also. The Pirates have played the 30th ranked schedule in MLB. When they’re favored over a solid starter, we are going to attack and that applies here.
Rubby De La Rosa continues to flash elite skills and with a little more consistency, he could turn out to be one of this year’s most profitable starters. De La Rosa has 45 K’s in 43 innings to go along with an elite groundball rate of 53%. His swing and miss rate is bordering on elite at 12%. De La Rosa uses a four-seam fastball (96 MPH) a slider (87 MPH), a change (88 MPH) and a wicked sinker (95 MPH). His ability to miss bats and induce groundballs is one that guarantees he’ll throw a bunch of gems this season. De La Rosa’s only flaw is his command against left-handed bats. His command against right-handers is elite so he’s a minor tweak away from being in the upper echelon of starting pitchers. De La Rosa had his last turn in the rotation skipped due to a groin injury but if he was not ready, the Snakes would skip him again. He’s ready and he’s good.
Meanwhile, Jeff Locke’s skills are soft. Locke doesn't generate a lot of swings and misses, so his 31 K’s in 45 frames is about right. Thing is, he has 23 walks to go along with that, which has led to a lousy 1.58 WHIP. A history of low marks in that category (command), shows he's been walking a fine line for years. Locke continues to get knocked around by left-handed batters. He found success during his first full season in the majors, back in 2013, but it was evident that his skills didn't match the results. A ground ball tilt is by far his strongest attribute, but it hasn't been enough to offset the lack of whiffs and the mediocre control. Locke’s 5.00/4.73 ERA/xERA split is legit but he’s not and neither is the team he plays for.
Oakland +170 over SEATTLE
Nothing like being thrown right in the fire. Zach Neal gets called up last week and is immediately called upon at Fenway to mop up against the red-hot Red Sox with his team down 10-3 in the sixth. Neal finishes the game by going three full and allowing four hits and three runs while striking out two and not walking a batter. That wasn’t the worst way to get one’s feet wet. Neal will now make his MLB starting debut.
Neal was a 17th-round pick in 2010 by Miami before they released him in March 2013. Oakland signed him two days later and now has spent the majority of the past three years in Triple-A. The lack of strikeouts mutes his upside but he offers some talent in his 6’3” 220-pound frame. Neal has a deep repertoire and has exceptional control of each of his four pitches. He moves his 88-93 mph fastball around the plate and mixes in a slider, curveball and change-up. Though none are considered plus pitches, none are below average either. He doesn’t use his curve much, though he likes to change speeds with both his fastball and change-up. Neal has proven durable throughout his pro career and has spent most of his time as a starter. If he has a bad outing, so be it.
11 days ago, we faded Hisashi Iwakuma against the Angels (+150) in Seattle and cashed that ticket and we intend to cash this one too. If it doesn’t cash, oh well but once again, Iwakuma cannot be favored in this range. In his last two starts against the Reds and aforementioned Angels, Iwakuma has allowed seven earned runs in 12.1 innings. He was also tagged for 15 hits over those two games. Iwakuma remains very high on our fade list and once again, here’s why. Iwakuma was a free agent this past winter and signed a three-year contract with the Dodgers. However, a failed physical sent him back to Seattle on a one-year deal. That’s rather interesting, no? The Mariners didn’t want him but the Dodgers did before they didn’t. The Dodgers clearly saw something they didn’t like and we’re not going to ignore that. If it were a correctable problem or a short term one, Los Angeles would have surely stuck with it but they didn’t. Iwakuma is 35-years-old and his average fastball velocity is 87 MPH. He is very prone to giving up jacks. Iwakuma comes in with a 4.39/4.15 ERA/xERA split but the bigger issue is that the Dodgers sent him right back from where he came from. We have to wonder why. A shoulder injury cost Iwakuma most of the first half of 2015. This year he has three pure quality starts in nine tries and he can barely get by 90 pitches. This is a dull starter with diminishing skills and we are not going to miss fading him at this price.
Baltimore +121 over HOUSTON
Last week we profiled Baltimore’s starter Tyler Wilson and backed him in an afternoon game against the Mariners. Wilson and the Orioles lost that game but that’s not going to deter us from coming back on this kid here. Losing for young starters is not a bad thing. They can get into some bad habits by constantly allowing few runs in every start but getting hit hard forces them to work harder to improve. Tyler has a high baseball IQ and it’s not like he was torched. The Mariners scored five runs on just six hits in six innings so Wilson’s pitching line is a little misleading. We like Wilson a lot so we’ll run that same profile….
The Orioles come cheap today because not many people have heard of Tyler Wilson. A quick look at Wilson’s profile will reveal a pitcher with just five starts and very average numbers. Wilson is also 26-years-old and has spent the previous four years in the minor league system. A deeper look into his past performances and under the hood stats suggests this kid has the goods to become great. Watch this kid pitch against three pretty good hitters in Lorenzo Cain, Byung Hung Park and Jose Abreu:
Houston is very much like the Blue Jays in that they have several players coming off career years. A closer look reveals a team with weak batting numbers and average pitchers with Collin McHugh being among them. McHugh climbed from the scrap heap to become a front-line MLB starter, which begs the next logical question: is McHugh a two-year-wonder, or can he repeat? Expect some regression, perhaps closer to the numbers he posted over three seasons in Triple-A. Line-drives are still an issue for McHugh. McHugh has ditched his ineffective sinker in exchange for more curveballs, which has produced whiffs at a higher rate (16% vs 2% for the sinker).
However, teams now have a "book" on McHugh, so he'll need to continue to make adjustments in order to sustain his last two year level. His xERA (4.39) says he's not a 5.13 ERA pitcher but it also says he’s about average. Last year he pitched for a team that was rolling all year and this year he’s pitching for a team that is having trouble finding victories. Big difference there, which provides us with this great opportunity to fade McHugh and buy low on Wilson.
N.Y. YANKEES +100 over Toronto
What a difference a few months make. The Blue Jays were Crush City North last summer and well into the fall but this year they are Meek City and manager John Gibbons is panicking in a big way. The Blue Jays took three of four in Minnesota last weekend but all of their runs come via the home run with the exception of two separate innings. While the Twins are getting 6 to 10 runs scored on them almost every night, the Jays scored three times in three of the four games. In the opener here last night, Toronto did not score. With runners in scoring position, the Jays are hitting a league low .209. Overall, they’re batting .233. Now it’s turning into Bizzaro World, as Gibbons has Jose Bautista leading off and Michael Sanders batting cleanup. That’s like having Sidney Crosby in goal and Matt Murray centering Evgeni Malkin. Bautista hits .232 and his greatest asset is driving in runs. Saunders is a post-hype bat who has produced nice value early in 2016 (.314 BA, 8 HR, 15 RBI in 153 AB). However, both his batting average and power stats are flukes. An inflated 44% hit rate has driven his BA; his .269 xBA is a better barometer to use and his 163 PX (power index) is sobered by a marginal 86 xPX. Saunders is a bottom of the order guy that is hitting fourth. Yes indeed, Gibbons is on tilt.
Marco Estrada is getting a lot more strikeouts these days (50 in 52 innings), which is way above his career marks over the past eight seasons prior to this one. With 88 MPH heat, what gives? Estrada has been notable in several respects. An elite spin rate and perceived rise on his four-seam fastball is fooling hitters. The speed differential between his heater and his change is the most extreme among qualified pitchers. His BABIP is well below average and he’s also throwing a very good changeup. That’s nice but we’re still not buyers. Major League hitters make adjustments and there is enough film out now on Estrada for these hitters to adjust too. He is still often behind in the count and his low hit rate (24%) and high strand rate (79%) is still doing the heavy lifting. According to Pitch f/x, Estrada has had more fly-balls within two feet of the warning track than any starter in the game. A minor adjustment by hitters and those shots will be leaving the park with regularity. Estrada’s charmed life has been going on for too long and it’s going to blow up on him soon. With declining control and extreme fly-ball tilt in a hitter-friendly yard, paying for Estrada to continue to dominate would be a big mistake.
Does it matter who is going for the Yanks? We think not. The Jays have made Phil Hughes, Pat Dean, Ross Stripling, Clay Buchholz and many others look like an ace this year and the fact that they’re favored on the road against the Yanks and perhaps the best bullpen in the game is incorrect.
L.A. Angels +104 over TEXAS
Chris Sale has filthy stuff. Chris Sale had not lost in nine starts going into last night’s game against Cleveland and proceeded to get whacked. The greatest pitchers that this game has ever seen rarely go extended periods without a clunker now and again and so it caught up to Sale last night. That brings us to not one of the greatest pitchers in the game.
Colby Lewis has not lost in nine starts this season and will bring his 2.75 ERA and 1.10 WHIP into this start. Colby Lewis sits among the 20-worst pitchers by strikeout rate among qualified pitchers over the last two plus years. He has the second-worst ground-ball rate among that group. He has the fifth-worst fastball velocity. He basically only has two pitches and only one of them rates as above-average on whiffs or grounders currently. He’s was fifth on the Rangers’ starting-pitcher depth chart before the season and the team was probably hoping that Chi-Chi Gonzalez and/or Nick Martinez would take that job from him. Colby Lewis is living off an 87 mph fastball, a decent slider, and little else. Blowups are on the way so when he’s favored, we’ll be there to fade him.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN JOSE -½ +119 over St. Louis
After starter Brian Elliot was pulled in Game 3, Blues Coach Ken Hitchcock could not wait to make a goaltending change heading into Game 4. Hitch went with the young gun Jake Allen. Allen and the team responded with a strong effort in a 6-3 win at San Jose. Obviously the Blues stuck with Allen after the victory but they fell at home in Game 5 with Allen not being able to make the big save when needed. The Blue Notes now head into Game 6 with a dilemma between the pipes. As we expected, Hitch made the easy call to go back to Elliot in this spot. Now when the Blue Notes lose this series he can stand on his high horse and go on about how Elliot got them to the dance and it was “his playoffs”. This is why this blob is such a loser. Instead of making the right call for his team by never switching to Allen, he's already covering his ass and thinking about the season ending press conference. Allen is the Blues goaltender of the present and future and nothing that Brian Elliot has done this season will change that. He'll likely be wearing a different colored sweater next season so his Coaches loyalty is short sighted at best. Hitchcock has been on thin ice since his arrival in St. Louis. He's always on the chopping block after his team underachieves. An appearance in the Western Conference Finals may spare Hitch for another season but we're not so sure. Going back to Elliott is his only play here, as Hitch cannot lose this series and save his job with Elliott on the bench. We’re sure it’s killing him to go back to Elliott.
There's not much we haven't said about these Sharks. We've liked what we've seen all season from them. The work that Peter DeBoer has done with this group of playoff underachievers has been impressive. Not many folks in the marketplace were high on the Sharks this season but with a new system and goaltender they were able to turn it around before the door slams shut on this core group of Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Joe Pavelski. Even in Round 1, not many in the marketplace gave them a chance to dispose of the Kings. Backed by a stellar power play and led by a man possessed in Pavelski, the Sharkies are the best team left in these playoffs. This game tonight is the furthest they've ever been as a franchise and after a rare weak performance in Game 4 at home, it is very unlikely that they’ll let the Blues off the hook again. This is kill or be killed and we trust the Sharkies 100 times more than we trust the Blues. If we weren't already invested for five units on this series we'd be all over the Sharkies and our recommendation is to back them here with confidence.
Bruce Marshall
Rockies / Red Sox Over Over 9.5
"Over" is always a decent call when the Red Sox take the field and expect the same tonight against the visiting Rockies. Last night's game was an easy "over" as it reached 11 runs and Colorado starter Chad Bettis has not put two good start together since early April. But the capable Rockies offense might do some business vs. Bosox starter Steven Wright, whose knuckleball has not been floating as usual in his last two starts (8 runs allowed in 12 1/3 IP).