Free Picks for Wednesday, May 3rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ROCKETS VS. SPURS
PLAY: SPURS 1H -3
Teams in what I would consider to be must-win scenarios have done extremely well early in these games. Must-win is a judgement call to be sure, as I suppose one could make the argument that a Game Two can’t fit that category. Point well taken to at least some extent as one could point to the recently concluded Bulls-Celtics series.
But I feel tonight’s game between the Rockets and Spurs is one San Antonio really needs. They might not be dead down 0-2 and heading to Houston, but let’s just say they’ll be approaching life support status.
My thoughts are that the home team is going to take the court angry and ready to let it all hang out after the humiliating Game One result. So I believe that if the Spurs are going to get the rebound win tonight, they need to get out of the gate quickly.
My official play here will be on the Spurs -3 in the first half, although I also intend to play the first quarter once that become available and will play each option for a half unit.
Scott Rickenbach
Philadelphia vs. Chicago
Play: Philadelphia +184
It will be chilly night in Chicago with temps in the mid-40s and a wind, though light, blowing in from center field. This is not a good night for scoring runs and with Jerad Eickhoff on the mound for the Phillies, they are worth the shot as a big dog here as I would not be surprised to see them steal a rather a tight, low-scoring ball game here. The Phillies lost yesterday's game but had won 7 of 10 while the Cubs, prior to yesterday's blowout win, had lost 4 of their last 5. The Fightin' Phils are 2-1 in Eickhoff's three career starts against the Cubs and he has a 2.70 ERA with a fantastic 0.95 WHIP in those outings versus Chicago! Jake Arrieta actually gave up 3 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent home start versus the Phillies. There is line value here because the line is inflated due to the Cubs being the defending champs and the fact that Arrieta is a big name pitcher. The fact is that the Chicago right-hander has been struggling of late with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts! In his two most recent starts, Arrieta has been rocked for 18 hits in 10 and 1/3 innings! Even with yesterday's win, the Cubs still have a losing record at home this season. The Phillies, after yesterday's loss, still are above .500 (and +$3,800) in games against teams with a winning record this season. They are worth a shot at this big plus money price in this 3rd game of a 4 game set.
Jim Feist
Ducks vs. Oilers
Play: Under 5½
Both teams are very strong on defense, with Anaheim #3 in goals allowed, #4 in penalty killing, Edmonton #8 in goals allowed. Anaheim is 16-5-5 under the total when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Edmonton is 8-2-1 under playing on 2 days rest, plus 13-6-2 under the total following a home loss of 3 or more goals. And the Under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings in Edmonton.
Scott Spreitzer
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -123
Gio Gonzalez is off to a terrific start this season with a 3-0 record and 1.62 ERA and the Nationals have won his last four starts. Gonzalez has allowed only six earned runs in 33 1/3 innings with 26 strikeouts. The only loss was to Miami and he shut out the Marlins for six innings before the bullpen came in and lost the game. The left-hander even had a good outing at Coors Field on Thursday in a 16-5 win. Robbie Ray is has had some control problems issuing 17 walks in 30 1/3 innings. Ray was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA versus the Nationals last year allowing 10 earned runs and 13 hits in 10 2/3 innings. Arizona is 7-18 in Ray's last 25 road starts and Washington has won eight of Gonzalez's last 10 home starts. Washington lost a 6-3 decision last night but it still has won 23 of the last 33 meetings with the Diamondbacks.
Sean Murphy
Ducks vs. Oilers
Play: Under 5½
We saw a wild, high-scoring affair in Edmonton on Sunday night, but I expect a return to 'normal' in a pivotal Game 4 matchup on Wednesday night.
After playing well in the first two games of this series, Oilers goaltender Cam Talbot had a bad game on Sunday, plain and simple. I certainly expect him to bounce back here, and I don't see the Oilers hanging him out to dry early the way they did in Game 3.
Meanwhile, despite coughing up a 3-0 lead, Ducks netminder John Gibson was lights out for stretches on Sunday night. While the Oilers boast a terrific offensive attack, it's not as if they've been a juggernaut here at home, averaging just under 2.9 goals per game.
For their part, the Ducks average only 2.6 goals per contest on the road so Sunday's six-goal outburst was an outlier.
Stephen Nover
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Blue Jays -104
The price is right to back the Blue Jays, who hold a strong starting pitching edge with Marcus Stroman facing 36-year-old C.C. Sabaitha. Stroman, who is from Long Island, always gets motivated to pitch against the Yankees. He is 5-2 lifetime against them with a 2.17 ERA. Stroman is pitching well this season allowing two runs or less in four of his five starts. Sabathia started well this year, but already is starting to fade. He is 0-1 in his last two starts with a 9.28 ERA. He was hammered by the Orioles during his last start this past Friday for seven runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Yankees are likely to be down to third-string catcher Kyle Higashioka in this game. Starting catcher Gary Sanchez is rehabbing in Triple A and backup Austin Romine suffered a groin injury on Tuesday night and had to leave the game. Higashioka doesn't have a hit in 15 at bats this season. New York has other injuries, too, with first baseman Greg Bird on the DL and Jacoby Ellsbury bothered by a nerve injury in his left elbow.
Dustin Hawkins
Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Giants +150
San Francisco is 22-8 against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons. LA Dodgers are 14-25 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts since 1997.
Marc Lawrence
Baltimore at Boston
Pick: Boston
Edges - Red Sox: Host team is 4-0 in Pomeranz’s team starts this season; and Pomeranz 27 K’s and 7 BB’s this season… Orioles: Gausman 7.50 ERA and 1.97 WHIP this season, with 8 K’s and 9 BB’s… With Gausman just 1-5 his last six team starts against the BoSox, we recommend a 1* play on Boston.
Mike Lundin
Phillies vs. Cubs
Play: Over 7
I think we'll see plenty of runs when the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field Wednesday night. Over is 8-1 in Phillies' last nine road games and 5-0 in Cubs' last five home games.
The Cubs' Jake Arrieta (3-1, 4.66) is 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies while Philadelphia's Jerad Eickhoff (0-2, 3.56 ERA) has posted a 2.70 ERA in three career turns against the Cubs. He did however give up five runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-3 loss at Dodger Stadium his last time out and the Cubs' bats are heating up after a slow start.
TJ Pemberton
Marlins vs. Rays
Play: Rays -124
The Tampa Bay Rays are 13-14 on the season and are in the 4th spot of the AL East. The Rays are 4-6 over their last ten games and are 9-4 on their home field. Tampa Bay has won their last five straight inter-league games and have nine of their last twelve against a team from the AL East.
24 year old Blake Snell is still seeking his first win of the season. Snell is 0-2 with 26.1 innings pitched. Snell has 18 strikeouts, 18 walks, and carries a 3.42 ERA. Snell pitched 5 innings in his last start allowing two earned runs. The Rays average 4.3 runs per game which ranks 19th in the MLB.
Tampa Bay can make a surge up the AL East standings over the next few games. Tampa Bay will return home where they play their best baseball this season. Tampa Bay is returning home eight game road trip and will have the fans their supporting them.
Chase Diamond
Capitals vs. Penguins
Play: Capitals -117
This game has the 1-2 Capitals at the 2-1 Penguins. It was not easy but we cashed the plus money Capitals in game 3 and I think you will see injury's really play a role as Washington ties things up tonight. Public is about 50/50 but this line is starting to move to show the Caps as the smart money play. Normally it's good to take a team after their star player goes down as Sydney Crosby did but this being atleast his third concussion this team might not get him back this season or at all which is a tremendous hit to this team and their morale and I think that will come out tonight.
Jeff Allen
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Royals -143
Kansas City needed a fast start to avert a full scale fire sale and that just hasn't happened with the offense hitting just .211 and averaging barely two runs a game through 25 games. That said, the Royals do have some pieces including Nate Karns who was rock solid in his only home start this year and faces the Pale Hose here on extra rest. Mike Pelfrey will be life and death to give the WSox five innings, something he's failed to accomplish to this point in 2017. Used Jason Vargas two nights ago to snap Royal four-game skid and will back Karns here at 40 cents.
Teddy Davis
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Angels +106
Gotta take a look at the dog here in this game. The Angels are playing very well right now winning 7 of their last 8 games. Seattle is back to struggling dropping three straight.
Nolasco has done his best work on the road this season with a 3.86 ERA. His last two starts have been very impressive going 11 2/3 innings and only giving up 3 runs.
Iwakuma is a guy that is hard to trust as he has a 5.79 ERA his last three starts. His only home start he made it 3 innings and gave up 6 runs.
Matt Fargo
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Brewers +145
St. Louis won Game Two of this four-game set last night behind a solid performance from Carlos Martinez who finally picked up his first win of the season. It has been an up and down year for the Cardinals who have had issues with both the offense and the starting pitching and despite a .500 record, they are heavy favorites once again. The Brewers are also at .500 and the potent offense was finally held in check last night as it was just the fifth time in 28 games they were held to two runs or less. The defeat last night was just the fourth one on the road for Milwaukee and it is in good position to get it back tonight. Adam Wainwright is a big reason why this line is so big and while we played against him and lost in his last start, he was not particularly well and that has been the case the entire start of the season. Overall, he has a 6.12 ERA and 1.84 WHIP and has yet to toss a quality outing in five starts. The Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 road games against right-handed starters. Chase Anderson gets the ball for Milwaukee and after three pretty average seasons, it looks as though he has turned the corner. Through five starts, he has a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and his biggest turnaround has not been allowing home runs. He has allowed just one home run this season after surrendering 28 long balls last year.