LARRY WALLACE
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Play: Pittsburgh -127
Take the Pirates in this match-up against the Reds. Taillon is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA this year. He also has a 0.47 ERA while taking the mound on the road. Davis for the Reds is 0-1 with a 11.17 ERA this year. While throwing at home he has 12.00 ERA. The Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 games during game 3 of a series.
JIMMY BOYD
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -140
I like the value here with Boston at home against the Orioles. The Red Sox took the second game of the series 5-2 last night and I look for them to carry over that momentum to Wednesday, where they have a big time edge on the mound. Baltimore will send out the struggling Kevin Gausman, who is 1-2 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.967 WHIP in 6 starts. Gausman has a 8.59 ERA in 3 road starts and has allowed 5 or more runs in each of his last 3 starts. That includes an outing at home against these Red Sox, where he allowed 5 runs on 8 hits (3 HRs) and 3 walks in just 5 1/3 innings of work. It was the 5th time in Gausman's last 6 starts against Boston where he allowed 5 or more runs.
The Red Sox counter with Drew Pomeranz, who I feel is a bit under the radar to start 2017. Pomeranz came over in a trade last year and never really pitched to his potential. While he comes into this start with a 4.16 ERA, he's allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 of his 4 outings this season. He was sharp last time out, limiting the Cubs to just 2 runs on 6 hits with 7 strikeouts. Pomeranz has already faced the Orioles twice this season, once at home and once on the road. He was good in both outings and I see no reason why he won't perform well here.
JACK JONES
Oakland at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -107
The Minnesota Twins are one of the most improved teams in baseball this season. They are off to a 13-11 start after winning five of their last six games overall coming in. I look for them to win once again tonight at a cheap home price.
Hector Santiago has pitched well this season, going 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in five starts, including 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three home starts. Santiago is also 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 11 career starts against the A's.
Oakland has really struggled over the past few weeks. The A's have gone just 1-7 in their last eight games overall. Their offense has been non-existent as they have scored two or fewer runs in six of those eight contests.
The A's are 12-40 in their last 52 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Oakland is 0-5 in Kendall Graveman's last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 41-20 in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Minnesota is 5-1 in its last six home meetings with Oakland.
DAVE PRICE
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -111
I like the price we are getting with the Seattle Mariners as small home favorites over the Los Angeles Angels today. They have lost 3 in a row and will be hungry to get back in the win column, especially after losing in extra innings to the Angels last nght. Hisashi Iwakuma has been solid with a 4.15 ERA in 5 starts. Iwakuma really enjoys facing the Angels. He is 9-5 with a 2.83 ERA in 19 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. He has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 8 of his last 9 starts against Los Angeles. Ricky Nolaso is 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 6 lifetime starts vs. Seattle. The Mariners are 20-8 in Iwakuma's last 28 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
BLACK WIDOW
A's / Twins Over 9
Bets on the OVER on all teams with a total of 9 to 9.5 (Minnesota), a team that's batting .260 or less on the season against an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.60 or less and a WHIP of 1.300 or less, with an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better on the season is 52-16 (76.5%, +36.1 units) over the last five seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
Wells Fargo Championship
This year’s Wells Fargo will be played at a one-off substitute course, Eagle Point, rather than the usual host Quail Hollow, which is well underway with renovation work ahead of the PGA Championship. Little is known about Eagle Point Golf Club; which opened in 2011, as it is yet to host a competitive tournament. Based in Wilmington, North Carolina, Eagle Point measures around 7,400 yards – long in these windy conditions, with Bentgrass greens, gentle contours, and tree-lined fairways, with some holes offering a particularly difficult challenge: the Par 5 fourth measures 640 yards, for instance. Some photos available online suggest that many of the greens are tiered in nature with some severe run-off areas, so accurate iron/wedge play will presumably be essential. Most intriguing for TV viewers could be the 18th hole, a 580-yard Par 5, some players will be able to make the green in two; although the putting surface is flanked by a pond along its right and back sides – perfect for some Sunday evening drama.
In truth, we have very little to go on this week in that Eagle Point has never hosted a Tour-level event in the past. We’re looking for players proficient on Bentgrass greens and in windy conditions, and any previous form in Carolina – North or South – is welcome. Other than that, we’re relying on the views of the players to help identify areas of interest. “It’s a great golf course and fun to play,” so said Harris English, who went on a scouting mission to Eagle Point with Hudson Swafford, Brian Harman, and Patton Kizzire recently. “There’s not a blade of grass out of place. It made me want to stay longer than two days.” The likes of Webb Simpson and Bill Haas are known members of the course, while Carl Pettersson – fresh from a top-20 at the Texas Open – holds the course record of 62 at Eagle Point. In tournaments like this, a little course knowledge is generally better than none at all.
Lastly, with the PGA TOUR season in full swing and one major already under our belt, perhaps our most significant statistic is the fact that 40% of our total picks have finished in the Top 25 (50/112) and 75% (84/112) have made the cut. Hopefully, one or more of the names below will be on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:
Webb Simpson 33-1
Another North Carolinian, Simpson has been practicing at Eagle Point since Friday according to his Twitter so he’ll be nicely in touch by Thursday’s first tee. Playing on home soil seems to suit the 2012 US Open champion well. He led the 2012 Wells Fargo Championship after 54 holes and the 2015 edition after 36, so clearly he doesn’t feel the pressure of playing in front of a partisan crowd. Simpson’s form has been up and down since his second place finish at the Phoenix Open, with three missed cuts in seven starts but, helpfully, an excellent T11 at RBC Heritage last time out signaled a return to his usual outstanding ball striking. Here’s a little insider information: According to the website myrtlebeachonline.com, Simpson has been a member at Eagle Point for more than a decade. He ranks 5th on TOUR in Shots Gained (SG) Approach-the-Green, 18th in SG Tee-to-Green and 36th on TOUR in Scoring Average (risking 0.2 units to win 6.6 units).
Head-to-head matchup
W. Simpson +102 over D. Berger (risking 1 unit).
Hudson Swafford 66-1
Swafford joined Harris English, Brian Harman, and Patton Kizzire on a scouting mission to Eagle Point earlier in the season, and that suggests he is ready to launch an assault on another PGA TOUR event. A winner earlier this year at the CareerBuilder Challenge, the 29-year-old has since followed up with top 10s at the Arnold Palmer and the Houston Open, and a round of 65 alongside partner English was a nice way to sign off at the Zurich Classic. Not somebody lacking in confidence, Swafford is capable of majorly outperforming his odds to win here. He ranks 12th on TOUR in Total Driving, 29th on TOUR in Greens in Regulation and 30th on TOUR in Total Driving. At 66-1, you could do a lot worse (risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head-to-head matchup
H. Swafford +102 over M. Laird (risking 1 unit).
Alex Noren 75-1
It’s easy to forget that Noren is ranked 12th in the world according to the OWGR, and it’s well-deserved too in a career that features eight European Tour titles. The Swede has a history of playing particularly well in windy conditions, including wins at Links-style settings at the British Masters, Scottish Open and the European Masters. All in all, he landed an incredible four titles in 2016. He missed the cut at The Masters but that followed a quarter-final berth at the World Matchplay, so there is enough form in place to suggest that Noren can deliver one of his best performances on US soil. Some of his key stats (European Tour) are Greens in Regulation: 78.47%, Driving Distance: 289.13 yards and Average Putts per Round: 30.13 (risking 0.2 units to win 15 units).
Head-to-head matchup
A. Noren +121 over L. Glover (risking 1 unit).
Brian Harman 90-1
Harman is on a list of ‘scouts’ who visited Eagle Point a few weeks ago, and for a player who is rounding up to some nice form that’s a handy angle. His last four starts read T13-MC-T9-T14, and while we’re happy enough to overlook the last number at the team-based Zurich Classic, his T9 at the RBC Heritage – played in windy South Carolina – cannot be missed. A brilliant putter who comes alive on and around the green, if Harman performs off the tee this week, he should create plenty of chances to birdie up and give us a run for our money (risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).
Head-to-head matchup
B. Harman -124 over S. Kjeldsen (Risking 1.24 units to win 1). 5.04
Byeong Hun An 90-1
We’ve backed this Korean in this column a few times this season, and he’s someone who appears to be worth persevering with. Huge off the tee, An also possesses a lovely touch around the green (37th for SG: Approach-the-Green), and if he could get his putter going, he really would be some player. Perhaps the switch from Bermuda to Bentgrass will kick-start that putter of his. An is unique in that he can strike at any time. It is not unusual to see him shoot 10 over one week and 10 under and that’s why you can never count him out entirely or put too much emphasis on his week to week game. He’s talented to be sure and any player that can finish T33 at The Masters deserves to be respected in this thin field (risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).
Head-to-head matchup
Byeong Hun An over J. Furyk (Risking -1.06 units to win 1). 6.44
For Fantasy Players:
We don’t bet on favorites to win any event because there is no value but DFS is different. We like to pick one “horse”, which is a top tier golfer and this week’s horse has to be Dustin Johnson. If Johnson is playing against a field featuring no other top-10 players from the OWGR, you get him in your lineup. He is returning to play four weeks after missing The Masters because of an accident and at that point was riding a three match winning streak; something that isn’t common place in the world of golf. Although his TOUR-best driving distance (316.2 yards per) would have aided him more on the length of Quail Hollow, he will still be able to take advantage this week. He also ranks best in greens in regulation (75.25%) and total strokes gained (2.953) while showing more finesse than he had in the past with 0.517 strokes gained putting (27th on TOUR) and a top-20 ranking in scrambling (65.31%, 20th on TOUR). Simply put, there is a reason he is ranked the No. 1 player in the world and there is no reason to not put him in your lineup at Eagle Point.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +120 over MIAMI
Edinson Volquez’s (RHP) skills have been wobbly for a while. Last year they locked arms and stepped off the ledge. His weak command led the plunge and fewer strikes yielded the second most earned runs in MLB and an overwhelmed xERA. This year, Volquez has 23 K’s in 24 innings but sub-indicators say the numbers of K’s are coming way down. Volquez has a 52% first-pitch strike rate, a 1.68 ERA, a weak 39% groundball rate and he’s walked 14 batters in 24 innings. If that’s not enough, his 6.18 xERA should be. 40% of his pitches are balls and the best pitch in baseball always has been and still is, strike one. Line up every starting pitcher in baseball in order of who to fade when favored and Volquez would be first in line or damn close to it.
Alex Cobb (RHP) brings a 4.66 ERA into this start so his appeal is not great right now. That’s fine with us. Cobb struggled last season, perhaps predictably, in those tentative first steps back from May 2015 TJS. Entering that season, we were touting him as a potential breakout star, and he had the skills to back it up. He surely still owns those skills and he’ll be getting stronger as the season wears on. We’re buyers now, however. Cobb faced Baltimore, Boston and Houston after facing the Yankees twice in his first two starts. That’s a daunting task for any pitcher. He’s walked just six batters in 29 innings with 21 K’s. In his last start against the Orioles, Cobb had a groundball rate of 56%. Before the missed time, Cobb was trending in a positive direction and he’s trending in that same direction now. Without question, Cobb is a much better option taking back a price than Volquez is spotting one and we’re on it.
HOUSTON -1½ +145 over Texas
After five starts, Cole Hamels’ (LHP) ERA is 3.03. After four starts, Mike Fiers’ (RHP) ERA is 5.05. Cole Hamels has been a stud pitcher for years and so he brings his pedigree, his name and his outstanding ERA after the first month into this start. He’s also taking back a tag in the +130 range (at the time of this writing). By contrast, Mike Fiers is Mister Cellophane. In other words, he’s been below average for years and might be the least talked about starter in the majors. Now Mr. Cellophane and his 5.05 ERA is a -140 over Cole Hamels and his 3.03 ERA. Looks enticing doesn’t it? That’s exactly what the line was intended to do---suck you into playing the wrong side so allow us to set the record straight.
Mike Fiers is not going to blow away anyone but what we’re witnessing here is the evolution of a junk-baller. After allowing 19 HR via a 90 mph four-seam fastball in 2015, Fiers scaled back and threw change/curve/cutter more in 2016 and is walking down that same path this year. This has helped cut down Fiers previously high fly-ball rate. Amazingly, his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate this year is trending beautifully and is now at 51%/15%/34%. He also has a decent 8/16 BB/K split after 19 innings. He is a different pitcher now and not many know about it.
Cole Hamels is a different pitcher too and it’s not to the good. Hamels 3.03 ERA after five starts is a massive mirage. His velocity is way down to 90.8 MPH. His walks are up and his K’s are way down too. In 33 innings, Hamels’ has walked 13 while whiffing a mere 15 batters. His swing and miss rate of 7% supports his weak strikeout rate. Hamels' high and unsustainable strand rate of 81% has aided greatly in masking his weak skills. The market trusts that Hamels is still chugging along with his usual solid skills but the signs of regression were there last year when he posted the worst control/command of his career with a notable drop in his first-pitch strike rate. Now add in 200 more innings from last year and overall mileage (over 2200 career innings) and throw in lost velocity, poor skills and a 5.67 xERA and regression is absolutely on the way. This is Felix Hernandez waiting to happen.
Bruce Marshall
Miami at Tampa Bay
Pick: Miami
Playing the psychology in this one as Miami looks to recover from two home losses to the Rays. Now the Marlins go on the road, however, and perhaps that is the dynamic that will continue to work in this matchup. Adam Conley is going to have to pitch better than he did in his last start vs. the Pirates but had a decent 3.00 ERA before that loss. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is not getting more than five innings out of Blake Snell in his recent starts.
Harry Bondi
SAN ANTONIO -5.5 over Houston
Tonight we go back to the NBA Playoffs and turn to one of the best teams to be on after a loss, the San Antonio Spurs. If you are a regular visitor to this page you know we have won a fortune backing the Spurs off a loss over the last 3 years as they have covered 65% of the time in that situation. We had Houston in Game 1 of this series on the Steam Team (Steam Team has made a $100 bettor $9,235 the last 2 months) and it was another super easy win. But tonight will be different because there is no way Rockets can shot 59% from the field for the game as they did in game 1 and there is no way this veteran Spurs team does not respond with a big win. Spurs circle the wagons!