DAVE COKIN
CAPITALS VS PENGUINS
PLAY: CAPITALS -105
It’s Game Four of the compelling Eastern Conference semifinal series between Washington and Pittsburgh, and it’s close to a must win for the visiting Capitals. The Caps certainly have to feel frustrated being down 2-1 after losing a Game Three is which they outplayed the Penguins by an enormous margin. But the Pens got an electrifying performance from rookie goaltender Matt Murray and now the Caps really need to win to avoid having their backs against the wall.
Anyone who has followed the Stanley Cup playoffs over the years knows all about what can happen when a goalie, even one who actually isn’t supposed to be playing at all, gets on a roll. That’s why Murray will be staying in the cage once again tonight even though Marc-Andre Fleury has been cleared to play now that he’s past his concussion.
As amazing as Murray was in Game Three, he might have to be even better tonight. The Caps know they were the vastly superior team in Game Three and the Penguins now have a real problem on the blueline heading into tonight’s battle.
Olli Maatta is already on on the sidelines with an injury and now the Penguins will be minus Kris Letang, who will be serving a one-game suspension. That means important minutes for Derrick Pouliot and Justin Schultz. Letang is an enormous component in virtually every aspect of the Penguins game and even for one game, I don’t see any way his absence won’t be felt.
I’m also of the opinion that while Murray might well stay on fire, he might be even more likely to suffer a bounce over what was unquestionably the best game of his career to date, considering the circumstances.
The Capitals have to avoid going on tilt if they dominate again but it doesn’t show on the scoreboard. But if they arrive at the arena with their heads on straight they’re the side with the advantages tonight, and I expect this series to get squared up at two games apiece. There has been some line movement already as I think had to be expected. But with the game still in the pick ’em neighborhood, I’m putting my money on the Capitals tonight.
Sleepyj
Giants / Reds Under 9
I'm a little surprised they laid out a 9 line here...Peavy will bounce back off a horrible outing..He got smashed in his game, but Peavy is a baller...His stuff isn't the best but he pushes himself off a bad start. I think that will be the case today..Reds lineup isn't all that scary and I think Peavy can avoid that one bad inning he is famous for...On the other side Straily will get the nod..He has improved as the games have gone along..Sure this Giants lineup is tough, but I feel good about a home start here..Straily has to work on his control and walks, but his K's are going up slowly..Both played the late game last night and now a early day game..I feel the pitchers will benefit more here..I made my line 8o15....Grabbing under 9 seems about right here.
Marc Lawrence
Red Sox vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -101
Edges - White Sox: Carlos Rodon 5-1 last six overall home team starts; and 3-1 career team starts during May. Red Sox: Clay Buchholz 0-2 with 9.32 ERA and 1.66 WHIP away this season; and 2-7 last nine overall team starts during May. With the BoSox 10-5 the last 15 games here in the series against the Pale Hose, we recommend a 1* play on the Chicago White Sox.
Scott Spreitzer
Cubs vs. Pirates
Play: Cubs -140
We had the Cubs on the run line last night and cashed an easy one when Chicago whipped the Pirates for the second straight day. The Cubs are averaging nearly 7 rpg, while winning 12 of 14 games within the NL Central. No Jason Heyward of late? No problem...the team is ultra deep. Lester, like last night's starter, Jake Arrieta, won't likely need a lot of run support, but with the way the Cubs are hitting the ball, he'll probably get it anyway. Lester has opened 2016 with five straight quality starts, while allowing just seven earned runs and 32 base runners in 34 1/3 innings. His team has outscored the opposition 25 to 8 in his outings. Juan Nicasio is off to a hot start for Pittsburgh, especially at PNC. But two of his three home starts came against the Reds and Brewers, teams that rank 23rd & 30th in road team batting average and 26th & 29th in road OBP. Today, he faces one of the best hitting road teams he'll have faced in 2016. I don't believe Nicasio will receive the kind of run support he'll likely need in this matchup. The Pirates haven't been bad at the plate in their last six games, but Andrew McCutchen has struggled of late, and the Bucs, middle-of-the-pack offense isn't likely to damage Jon Lester. The Cubs, 19-6 on the season and 12-3 in road action, are on a 55-21 run against right-handers, going back to last season and we'll back them again here.
Art Aronson
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -125
The scuffling Yanks send CC Sabathia (1-2, 5.06 ERA) to the hill. The big southpaw took the loss in Texas on Wednesday after giving up three runs on five hits through six innings, striking out five and walking three. Sabathia has allowed exactly three runs in all four of his starts to open the year, the veteran though has not been able to finish five innings in two of those, which is why his ERA is so high. Sabathia’s inflated numbers and 15:11 K:BB ratio are poised to catch up to him and note, he was a pedestrian 3-6 with a 4.18 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with Tyler Wilson (1-0, 3.06), who gave up two runs and four hits and walk while striking out three over 4.2 innings in his last outing. Wilson has looked good in his limited time this year, note that he sported a 1.29 ERA at home in 2015. Wilson is still green, but we think he can match pace with the erratic Sabathia. The price is right in this one, consider Baltimore on Wednesday.
Martin Griffiths
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City
Play: Manchester City +1 +105
Massive game for Man City, if they can get some sort of result in Madrid today then they will make club history and be in the Champions League final.
Real Madrid of course are regular winners of this competition having won it more times than any other club and would love to face Atletico Madrid again in the final.
Real are clear favourites, they will probably have Ronaldo and Benzema back and in front of their home fans will take some beating.
But I do see City getting a result, they only need a score draw and they are through, the pressure will be on Real Madrid and they are not as formidable as they once were, even with Ronaldo back in the side.
Forget the City result from the weekend, it was a weakened team put out and they are focussing totally on this game.
It will not be an easy task for City, but I am taking them to cover the spread.
Jim Feist
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7½
Marlins Park is a huge park, great for pitchers. Arizona is in town with hard throwing Rubby De La Rosa going, on a nice roll. The team has won his last three starts allowing one run in 14 innings. De La Rosa dominated the Cardinals on Thursday, striking out 10 while allowing just two his and two walks over seven shutout frames. Miami is on a 4-0 run under the total at home and has ace Jose Fernandez going, with 40 strikeouts in 28+ innings. Fernandez struck out eight while limiting the Dodgers to two runs on five hits and three walks in six innings en route to a 5-3 win Thursday. He has a 1.55 ERA at home the last three-plus years and the under is 5-1 in his last six starts with six days of rest. The Under is also 5-2 when Fernandez starts at home against a team with a losing record. When these teams meet the under is 14-5, including 5-2 under here in Miami.
Stephen Nover
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros -150
It's hard to believe, but the Astros haven't won two games in a row all season. I see that streak ending here, though, in a pitching matchup of Phil Hughes versus Mike Fiers. Pitching at Houston's Minute Maid Park is not a good fit for Hughes, a fly ball pitcher. He has a 7.71 career ERA versus the Astros in two outings. Minnesota has lost during Hughes' past five road starts. The Twins have the worst record in the American League and have won just two of their 13 road games. Fiers is coming around after a slow start. He held the A's to two runs in seven innings during his last start this past Friday. Fiers has a 1.65 career ERA against Minnesota in five appearances. The Astros' defense and outfield depth received a boost with Carlos Gomez back in the lineup. He returned in the Astros' 6-4 Tuesday victory after missing three games with rib cage soreness and hit a pair of doubles.
Cajun Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -160
The Tampa Bay Rays play host to the LA Dodgers on Wednesday night for the second and final game of their short two-game series. The Dodgers will send Alex Wood to the bump with his 0-2 SU record on the road along with his ERA of 8.36. In his last outing he went seven innings giving up one earned run on five hits and nine strikeouts in a 5 to 1 loss to the San Diego Padres. The Rays will send Drew Smyly to the hill with his 0-3 SU record at home and an ERA of 4.12 on the season. Smyly is coming off a loss in his last outing with the Rays losing 6 to 1 to the Blue Jays. In that game he went six innings allowing just two earned runs which came by way of the long ball and striking out eight batters in the loss. Smyly has pitched well enough to have a better record in fact over his last outings he is 1-1 SU with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.619 and the Rays are 2-1 SU over that span. In those games Smyly allowed just three earned runs on nine hits, four walks and twenty-five strikeouts. We want to play AGAINST MLB road teams with a ML range of -80 to +80 hitting fewer than 0.925 HR’s per game and coming off four or more straight contests scoring two or fewer runs. Playing against these MLB road teams has produced a record of 82-39 SU for a profit of +3015 units. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.62 runs for the home favorite in this contest. With solid support for the Rays we will back them on Wednesday night.
Will Rogers
Washington vs. Kansas City
Pick: Under
The Kansas City Royals started the season strong but have won just two of their past eight games. They did however defeat the Washington Nationals 7-6 last night to even this series at 1-1, setting up a potential "pitcher's duel" in the rubber match Wednesday afternoon.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Royals hand the ball to Kris Medlen (1-2, 4.87) who is coming off one of his his best starts of the season. Medlen held the Mariners to one run one one hit and five walks in 5 1/3 innings, and he is likely to build on that success today as he has posted a 2.45 ERA in 14 career appearances against Washington. The Nats counter with Stephen Strasburg (4-0, 2.25 ERA) who has had an extraordinary start to the year.
2. Washington vs. Right-handers - The Nats .234 batting average against right-handers this season ranks in the bottom third of the major leagues. They're 18-37 in their last 55 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starters.
3. X-Factor - Washington's slugger Bryce Harper is ice cold going 2-for-26 over the past seven games. This could be another ugly showing as he is 2-for-13 in previous meetings with Medlen.
SPS Investors
Angels vs. Brewers
Pick: Angels
The Milwaukee Brewers are on somewhat of a hot streak recently, having now won 3 straight, and taking the first two of this three game series from the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels blew an opportunity to even things up yesterday as they led 4-0 in the third, before allowing the Brewers to score 5 unanswered runs and steal the victory despite being out-hit 9-7. This afternoon's contest will be the Angels' chance to at least salvage a portion of the series to avoid being swept and we believe they will do just that as they face off against a struggling Zach Davies.
Davies has been terrible to start the season and is in real danger of losing his starting spot in the rotation if things continue. He has lost all 3 of his starts thus far and has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each one of them. He has given up a total of 23 hits in just 13.1 innings of work this season. The Angels have had a somewhat inconsistent offense to start the season but we expect the big power bats of LA to show up this afternoon against Davies.
The Angels should also have the edge on the mound with southpaw Hector Santiago. Santiago hasn’t been spectacular to start the season, but given the numerous injuries to the starting rotation, he has certainly held his own. Over five starts this season he has amassed a 2-1 record and 3.34 ERA in 32.1 innings of work. He is however coming off of his worst start of the year the last time he took the hill as he gave up 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings of work. We have seen Santiago bounce back from rough outings in the past and we expect that to be the case again this afternoon.
The Angels' offense has also provided a lot of support for Santiago when he has taken the mound and that is evident by their 10-1 record in his last 11 starts. We expect Santiago to pitch well in this contest and keep the Brewers' offense at bay this afternoon while his offense provides enough support to come away with the victory.
Other notable facts to consider:
• Angels are 5-0 in Santiago’s last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
• Angels are 5-0 in Santiago’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Angels are 5-1 in Santiago’s last 6 road starts.
• Brewers are 3-11 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +122
Pittsburgh will try to salvage the third game of this series after losing the first two, and Juan Nicasio is a prime candidate to help the Pirates accomplish it. The right-hander has had only one bad outing in five starts and comes off seven shutout innings against Cincinnati on Friday when he allowed just three hits, struck out eight and walked one. Also, Nicasio is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA at home this season with 21 strikeouts in 19 innings. The Pirates lead the majors with a .911 OPS and .400 OBP against left-handers as they go up against Jon Lester. Take advantage of the home underdog and play the Pirates.
Gary Bart
Yankees at Orioles
Play: Yankees
This is a big divisional series. The Yankees have been terrible so far this season, while the Orioles have been very good so far this season. New York struggles on offence and will need to score runs if they want to get back in the playoff hunt.
Vegas Butcher
Colorado Rockies -112
Cesar Vargas has done well so far (0.9 ERA) but this is a pitcher that could implode at any time. He has a weak 89 MPH fastball and an ineffective slider in his repertoire, two pitches that the Rockies crush. It’s one thing to hold down a weak hitting Dodgers lineup, and a whole other one to go up against the Rockies. San Diego has won the first two games of this series, having to use their key relievers in both. With it being a day-game with a short turn around I’d expect the Rockies to have an advantage in the BP as well. Strong edges in Colorado’s favor here and I like their chances of getting it done.
Baltimore Orioles -127
This is a complete fade of CC Sabathia, a pitcher who has struggled to get through the 5th inning in 2 of his 4 starts. Sabathia’s fastball is down another 2 MPH this year, he is trying to learn to through a cutter (31% usage rate in ’16 – a pitch he never used before), and his 5.0 SIERA is the highest it’s been in his career. Throw in a double-digit walk-rate of 11% (also highest of his career) and an inability to command a strike zone, and it’s a recipe for disaster. Orioles crush left-handed pitching while the Yankees are a bottom-5 offense in the league. Love the O’s chances here.
Bruce Marshall
Hawks / Cavs Under 197
The zig-zag angle is back on the table for Game Two but not sure Atlanta warrants a recommendation in that role. Too much inconsistency among the top Hawk scoring threats, as Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap, Al Horford, and Kyle Korver were just a combined 12 for 42 from the floor in Game One, with Korver (0 for 1) particularly inept . Hawks also trending "under" in the playoffs and expect that angle to continue in Game Two.