Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Miami Marlins tonight, over the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Long travel for the Snakes, and while I know Arizona is 7-4 on the road, it has also lost eight of its last 11 after losing here last night. The D-Backs sit in fourth place, three back in a tight N.L. West race, which is currently led by the Giants.
Miami has won eight of 11, and will be looking to improve in South Beach. The Fish are just 3-7 at home, while they're 10-5 on the road. They rebounded nicely from a 14-5 loss at Milwaukee on Sunday, with last night's win, and will be looking to continue to improve at home.
1`* MARLINS -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 50-38 run with free picks: N.Y. Yankees at BALTIMORE (-125)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Huge American League East showdown in Camden Yards, as the New York Yankees are in to visit the Baltimore Orioles, and for as bad as the Bronx Bombers are playing, I have to give the nod to the home team in this game. Don't worry about listing pitchers, as I stated, since the Yankees are playing so bad it won't matter.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The biggest intangible is these Yankees, and the six-game losing streak they come in with. They rank 23rd in the bigs with a .234 batting average, and it gets worse on the road, where they're hitting .217, which is the fourth-worst road batting average in the majors. Run production on the road is killing this team, as it ranks dead last with 31 runs scored while ordering room service.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Yankees arrived after after being swept in Boston, including the Sunday night game, an 8-7 heartbreaker. Baltimore snapped a two-game skid, after losing its weekend series at home to American League Central-leader Chicago. The O's are 10-3 at Oriole Park, while the Bombers are 3-9 on the road.
3* ORIOLES
Brad Wilton
Wednesday comp play is the Over in the battle of the Sox, as the Red Sox and White Sox meet once again on the Southside.
Clay Buchholz is the key to this total, as Buchholz just has not been good this season at all. The righty enters with a 6.51 ERA for the season, and is fresh off allowing 5 runs on 8 hits, to go along with 4 walks in a loss to lowly Atlanta his last time out!
Carlos Rodon will counter, as the Pale Hose originally listed starter John Danks has been designated for assignment.
Rodon's season ERA is 4.33, and over his last 3 starts, that ERA is 7.07.
Just don't see either hurler fooling these batters too many times tonight.
I say look for the runs to add up.
Boston-Chicago Over.
3* BOSTON-CHICAGO OVER
Ray Monohan
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play:Yankees +121
The Yankees look to put an end to a pair of losing streaks here on Wednesday. New York has lost 6 straight to Baltimore in Camden Yards and also 6 straight overall. The Yankees send CC Sabathia to the mound, who is now their number 5, but knows a thing or two about playing the stopper. Sabathia was an ace throughout his whole career and has been in many situations such as this.
For the Orioles, they send out Tyler Wilson, who doesn't have much depth in him. He started out of the bullpen this year and has only made one start this year. Look for this to be a Baltimore bullpen day, given Wilson's arm strength problems.
Some trends to consider. Yankees are 4-1 in Sabathias last 5 starts vs. American League East. Yankees are 6-2 in Sabathias last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Sabathia has the experience in these situations to really get the job done here and play that stopper. Look for the Yankees to have value here at plus money.
Jeff Alexander
Dodgers +151
This is a great price to back the Dodgers. LA exploded for 10 runs on 13 hits in yesterday's 10-5 win over the Rays and I like their chances of carrying over that momentum tonight. The Dodgers will give the ball to Alex Wood, who comes in with a less than impressive 4.82 ERA in 5 starts, but he pitched very well in his last outing, giving up just 1 run on 5 hits with 9 strikeouts in 7 innings. I'll take my chances on Wood building on that start against a Rays offense that is scoring a mere 2.8 runs/game at home this season.
Brandon Lee
Orioles -124
Baltimore is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Yankees. New York is in a major slump right now, as they have dropped 6 straight and the struggles figure to continue with C.C. Sabathia taking the mound. Sabathia is 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.687 WHIP over 4 starts and I just don't see it getting any better for him going forward. The Orioles are a dominant 10-3 at home this season, while the Yankees are just 3-9 on the road. Baltimore will send out Tyler Wilson, who despite not pitching great has kept the Orioles in both of his starts. I like Wilson's chances of keeping the Yankees in check. New York is only scoring 2.6 runs/game on the road and just 2.3 runs/game over their last 7.
Mike Lundin
Orioles -125
The Baltimore Orioles are sitting top of the AL East and defeated bottom-dwelling New York Yankees 4-1 last night, the Yankees' sixth consecutive loss. I predict another Orioles win tonight as they send Tyler Wilson (1-0, 3.06) to the mound.
Wilson makes his third start of the season and he's been solid enough in his previous starts with five runs allowed on 10 hits and only one walk through 9 2/3 innings of work. He tossed 3 1/3 scoreless innings in relief in his only appearance against the Yankees on June 14.
The Bronx Bombers turn to left-hander CC Sabathia (1-2, 5.06 ERA) who was 0-1 with 11 runs conceded in 16 2/3 innings against the Orioles last year. The current members of the Orioles are hitting a combined .289 against the veteran and Adam Jones is batting .311 with four homers, four doubles and 14 RBI through 61 at bats against Sabathia.
The Yankees' could be without designated hitter Alex Rodriguez who tweaked his right hamstring running out a grounder yesterday.
Tony Karpinski
Indians -185
Cleveland Indians starter Corey Kluber 8-3 last eleven team starts during May, including 4-1 home with 2.58 ERA. Tigers Anibal Sanchez 7-13 last twenty team starts during May, including 0-2 away and 0-3 with 8.83 ERA the last three. Sanchez had allowed at least five runs in his previous two outings. With Kluber in phenomenal form I look for an easy win for the Indians here tonight!
Dave Price
Chicago White Sox -104
The Chicago White Sox might be the most underrated team in the big leagues. With a 4th starter like Carlos Rodon, the Sox have one of the best rotations in the league. Rodon hasn't been as good as Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Mat Latos, but he has still posted a respectable 4.33 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 27 innings pitched this season. That's much better than Clay Buchholz, who is 0-3 with a 6.51 ERA and 1.590 WHIP in 5 starts, including 0-1 with a 9.31 ERA in 2 road starts. Buchholz is 2-3 with a 4.25 ERA in 8 lifetime starts vs. Chicago as well. Rodon has never faced the Red Sox, which certainly gives him an advantage.
Teddy Covers
Phillies vs. Cardinals
Play: Phillies +155
Teddy's baseball is heating up right now, hitting 64% over the last two weeks! Go for the 2-0 sweep with Teddy's MLB Wednesday Winners!
Every year, the betting markets ‘swing and miss’ on a handful of teams. Look back to last year and see how badly the markets reacted to Minnesota’s ‘lucky’ first half run, when they went 48-34 into the All Star Break following a 1-6 start, the single most profitable team in baseball to support during that span.
2016 is no exception. The Philadelphia Phillies can’t hit worth a lick. Their bullpen is supposed to stink (although it hasn’t). They’ve been bottom feeders in every recent season. And they’ve been outscored by 22 runs through their first 27 games; a comparable run differential with the last place Padres or the last place Twins.
And yet the Phillies are winning, just 2.5 games out of first place in the competitive NL East. These quotes tell the story of a team that is worth backing right now, before the betting markets catch up Slugger Ryan Howard: "I'm having a blast. There's a different energy and all that began in spring training." Catcher Cameron Rupp: “We're having fun out there and everything is coming together.”
Since their 0-4 start, the Phillies are 16-7. On their last two road trips, they’ve gone 6-2, cashing +160, +125, +185, +175, +125 and +120 tickets for their backers. Meanwhile, the struggling Cardinals have gone ice cold, losing five of their last six overall, while held to one run or less in each of their last three defeats. Starter Mike Leake has allowed at least four runs in each of his five outings, and the Cards are just 1-4 in those games. He’s an easy fade in this price range.
Larry Ness
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Cleveland opened a three-game home series against the Tigers with a 7-3 Tuesday win, ending a three-game skid. It marked the Indians’ fourth straight victory over their AL Central rival and their NINTH win in the last 11 matchups with the Tigers. Detroit saw its five-game winning streak end, as the Tigers had won six of seven since getting swept at home by the Indians from April 22-24. Tonight’s pitching matchup is a ‘re-hook’ from April 23, when Corey Kluber earned the victory opposite Anibal Sanchez in Cleveland's 10-1 victory, allowing one run on two hits while striking out 10 in eight innings.
Corey Kluber has started 2016 just 1-3 with a 4.24 ERA in five starts (Indians are 1-4) and the right-hander is 3-6 with a 4.03 ERA in 13 career starts against the Tigers (Cleveland is 5-8.). Sanchez snapped a two-game skid despite struggling to find the plate this past Thursday, minimizing the damage by overcoming seven walks over 5.2 innings in a 7-3 win over Oakland. Going back to that April 23 meeting with the Indians, Sanchez was rocked for seven runs on nine hits in 2.2 innings, falling to 4-4 (3.55 ERA) in his career against the club (teams have gone 5-5).
Kluber won the 2014 Cy Young award in the AL but followed with a miserable 2015 season, as despite a credible 3.49 ERA he was just 9-16, while the Indians went 11-21 in his starts (his moneyline record of minus-$1,747 was a MLB-worst!). However, I believe Kluber will get things straightened out here in 2016 and this game will have a similar outcome to the April 23 meeting between the two teams and pitchers. Second verse, sane a s the first.
Jesse Schule
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Detroit Tigers +1.5 -124
The Indians swept the Tigers in Detroit last week, and they took Game 1 of this home series versus Detroit by a score of 7-3 last night. Cleveland will be a big favorite with ace Corey Kluber on the mound tonight, and Kluber only has one win in five starts this year. Kluber (1-3, 4.24 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits over seven innings in a loss to Philly his last time out. He limited the Tigers to one run on two hits and 10 strikeouts over eight innings prior to that. His success against the Tigers has been limited though, with a record of 1-5 with a 4.26 ERA in his previous 10 starts versus Detroit. The power in the Tigers lineup has clobbered Kluber, with Cabrera batting .500 with five homers and 10 RBIs in 38 at bats, Victor Martinez batting .321 with three homers, and J.D. hitting .333 with a home run. The Tigers hand the ball to Anibal Sanchez, who was rocked by the Indians in Detroit. Sanchez (3-2, 6.08 ERA) allowed two runs on three hits, striking out nine in a home win over Oakland his last time out. Prior to that he was torched for seven runs on nine hits in just 2 1/3 innings in a home loss to Cleveland. He's pitched well against the Indians at Progressive Field though, going 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last two starts there. The Tigers are batting an American League best .286 on the season so far.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO -1½ +114 over Texas
Perhaps last night’s ninth inning rally and subsequent win will propel the Blue Jays into a run of some sort but regardless of that, they figure to put up a crooked number against Colby Lewis. Lewis is 2-0 with an ERA of 3.19 after five starts so his stock is high but now would be the time to cash out on him. Lewis’ elevated fly-ball% and HR combination is engrained. His skills show that he hasn't seen league-average anything since 2012. His relevance is nearly non-existent with nothing good sticking out in his profile. A 7% swing and miss rate, 20 K’s in 31 frames, a 29% groundball rate and one of the worst line-drive rates in the game reveal just how much trouble is on the horizon. Lewis has already been tagged for seven jacks this season in 31 innings. His xERA of 5.02 is a much stronger indicator than his misleading 3.19 actual ERA. This venue is extremely unforgiving to pitchers with weak skills.
Then there’s Aaron Sanchez, who began his career last season in the rotation, where his gilt-edged groundball% and hit % offset his poor command and hr/f spike. A strained lat shelved him in early June but he returned in the 2nd half as a reliever with a velocity rebound and better results. His sinking mid-90s stuff speaks to both his high floor and ceiling. His early results scream breakout target after five starts (2.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). His combination of strikeouts (8.5/9) and groundballs (58%) gives him a unique profile, and his 95-mph four-seam fastball gives him more swing-and-miss potential than he has shown so far. He’ll now face a Rangers squad that is dead last in the AL in jacks and that has made a slew of weak pitchers look good this season, especially on the road. Thing is, Sanchez is not a weak pitcher.
Harry Bondi
NY YANKEES +120 over Baltimore
Yankees have dropped 5 straight but tonight's starter, CC Sabathia, has always pitched well against Baltimore and we are counting on that again tonight to turn around the fortunes of the boys from the Bronx. The Heafty Lefty is 20-7 lifetime against the Birds and makes it 21-7 tonight.