Free Picks for Wednesday, November 23rd, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
RIDER AT FORDHAM
PLAY: FORDHAM -6
Jeff Neubauer doesn’t get much ink, but this guy is a terrific basketball coach. I think he’s a good possibility to start getting mentioned as a candidate for a bigger gig if he continues to build this Fordham squad.
Neubauer had a very nice run at Eastern Kentucky, but what he’s already accomplished with the Rams is downright amazing. Fordham has been a mostly terrible program for many years, but Neubauer coached them to 17 wins last season and they even got into one of the lesser post-season events.
The Rams are probably still going to struggle to be .500 in the rugged A-10, and the turnover issues from a year ago are still a problem. But they play fierce defense with lots of pressing and poor shooting opponents will have their hands full with this outfit.
Rider is one of those poor shooting opponents. The Broncs were one of the least accurate teams in the country on threes last season, and so far this year they’re at a pathetic 22%. For that reason, Rider tries to avoid long range shots as much as possible. If they can beat the press, the Broncs will get some easy baskets as the Fordham interior isn’t very good.
But I would expect the Rams to force a good number of turnovers here as Rider doesn’t take great care of the ball and they guard play just isn’t that good. Fordham is the nuts from the free throw line, and in tandem with Rider’s weakness from outside, there’s a very good chance the Rams extend late if they’re ahead. I’ll lay it in this day game with Fordham.
Matt Josephs
Old Dominion vs. Louisville
Play: Under 126½
It's the Battle 4 Atlantis and the final game of the night is Old Dominion and Louisville. This one figures to be really low scoring with two of the better defenses in the league. Louisville is holding their opponents to 53.7 points per game and 29.6% shooting from the field. ODU has played just two games this season with each score being 62-55 and 64-61. The Monarchs are very good on the offensive glass, but that's because they aren't a very good shooting team. They've gone under in 13 of their last 14 neutral court games and are 5-16 to the under the last three years in non-conference games. Louisville has gone under in 29 of their last 52 games as a favorite. Hold your nose and consider the under with these two teams.
Jim Feist
Thunder at Kings
Pick: Under
Oklahoma City is a strong great defensive team, 5-0 under the total on the road, 10-3 under against losing teams. they face a Kings team with a new coach who is preaching better defense. The Under is 10-2 when the Kings are playing on two days rest, plus 8-3 under in the Kings last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. And when these teams clash the Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
Alex Smart
TWolves at Pelicans
Play: TWolves -1
The New Orleans Pelicans have been playing , some very good ball of late and went into Atlanta, full of gusto and took out a sleep walking, Hawks side. It was a high energy, performance , and will have them in a physical and emotional situation tonight, which favors a well conditioned visiting Minnesota Wolves side. NEW ORLEANS is 3-16 ATS L/19 off an upset win as a road underdog over the last few seasons. HC Gentry is 8-19 ATS L/27 as a favorite.
David Banks
Minnesota @ New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans -1
Wednesday’s matchup between the T-Wolves and Pelicans features two of the game’s best young players. New Orleans forward Anthony Davis leads the NBA in scoring averaging 31.7 points per game while Minnesota’s Andrew Wiggins is 10th scoring 25.7. The problem for both teams is their stars’ supporting cast.
New Orleans finally got point guard Jrue Holiday back and the former UCLA star has not disappointed. In his two starts since returning from caring for his wife, Holiday has averaged 21.5 points and eight assists a game. The Pelicans won both of those games to move out of the Southwest Division cellar and to 4-10 on the season. The ability of Holiday to create offense for both himself and for Davis is why the Pelicans can be dangerous this season.
Minnesota has a roster full of exciting young players that have the potential for greatness. Wiggins, in his second year, is an explosive scorer. Center Karl-Anthony Towns, also in his second year, is averaging 21.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Zach LaVine, a third-year player and like Holiday a UCLA product, is the T-Wolves point guard who averages 19.1 points per game. The potential of Wiggins and Towns was evidenced last Thursday when the pair each scored over 25 points and had 10 rebounds in a win over Philadelphia. Wednesday’s game will come down to which teams’ stars perform better.
Wunderdog
William & Mary @ Duke
Pick: Under 156
The Duke Blue Devils have rarely had a great deal of depth, but the quality of the top six or seven players has matched any team in the country. They will be without Jayson Tatum for today's game vs. William & Mary. There are also doubts about Marques Bolden, and Harry Giles, who have yet to play. Duke has not been able to get out of the 70s in each of their last three games, averaging just 54.7 shots per contest. The Tribe has a huge talent deficit here, and certainly will look to shorten the game. The Tribe likes to shoot the three-ball, but Duke defends it as well as anyone with opponents connecting on an average of 3-17 a game. That will keep the Tribe's contribution to the scoreboard limited in this contest.
Rob Vinciletti
Suns vs. Magic
Play: Suns +4
The Suns swept the series from Orlando last year and have covered 9 of 12 after allowing 105 or more. For the database system we see that non division home favorites with rest that covered by 1-3 points and scored 90 or less like The Magic, vs an opponent that was a road dog of 5 or more. These home teams are a terrible 1-16 to the spread.
Brandon Lee
Heat vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -5
Detroit comes into this game having lost 4 straight and are just 2-7 in their last 9 overall. However, 5 of those 7 losses have come on the road and the last two at home against two of the better teams in the league in the Celtics and Rockets. Detroit had been a perfect 5-0 at home prior to those last two defeats and I look for the Pistons to come out and lay everything on the line to avoid a 3rd straight home loss. The Heat aren't a good team and just lost by 7 at Philadelphia last time out, dropping them to 2-4 on the road this season. Miami simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep this one close against a very good and motivated Detroit defense.
Brandon Powell
Michigan vs. South Carolina
Play: Michigan -4½
I think Michigan's offense will be the difference maker here. On paper these two teams matchup well, but I think Michigan has more depth and the Gamecocks. Look for Zak Irvin to be difference maker tonight. He will need to light up the offensive end, and defensively he will draw a tough task guarding Sindarius Thornwell. I think Irvin, as well his team, will be up for the task.
Dave Price
Celtics -7½
The Key: The Boston Celtics recently got healthy with Al Horford returning tot he lineup. It's no surprise they are starting to play up to their potential. They are coming off back-to-back road wins over both Detroit and Minnesota. Now I look for them to blow the doors off of the Brooklyn Nets, who started nicely this season but have started playing more to their talent level of late. The Nets are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall, losing by 32, 7, 19 and 20 points. The Celtics should have no problem beating them by double-digits here. Brooklyn is 2-13 ATS after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Boston is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 trips to Brooklyn.
Mike Lundin
Penguins vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -115
The New York Rangers defeated the Penguins 5-2 on the road on Monday night, and I think they'll get the better of the Pens in the rematch here at MSG a couple of days later.
The Rangers are an impressive 8-2-1 at home on the season and 8-1 in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record overall. They still have not forgotten last season's opening round loss to the Pens in the playoffs, and I doubt Monday's win was enough to still their revenge lust. The Penguins have dropped three of their last four games, and they've not been particularly dangerous on the road this season sitting on a 4-3-2 record.
This is a more than reasonable price to back the red hot Rangers.
Jimmy Boyd
Raptors vs. Rockets
Play: Raptors +4
Toronto comes into this contest showing great value here as a 4-point dog against the Rockets. The Raptors have lost 4 of 5 after starting out 7-2, but it's not like they are getting out played. Their largest margin of defeat all season is 8-points at the Clippers. On top of losing to LA, they also have two losses against the Cavs and another against the Warriors, so that's 4 defeats against arguably the 3 best teams in the league.
I look for the Raptors to come out with a chip on their shoulder tonight against a Houston team that is getting a lot of love after covering the spread in 5 straight games. Toronto has gone 5-2 ATS in their 7 road games and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Raptors have also responded well in this spot in the past, as they are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 road games after losing 3 of their last 4.
To top it off, we have a strong system in play backing a fade of the Rockets. Home teams that have a winning percentage of 60% to 75% and are off a road win by 3 points or less are just 9-22 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when playing a team with a winning record.
Jack Jones
Heat vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -5
The Detroit Pistons come in highly motivated for a victory after losing four straight games. Three of those losses came by 3 points or less, so it's not like they are playing poorly. I look for them to get back on track with a blowout win over the Miami Heat tonight.
The Pistons started 5-0 at home this season before dropping their last two to Boston (92-94) and Houston (96-99) by a combined 5 points. Those are two of the better teams in the NBA, but the team they'll be facing tonight certainly is not on their level.
The Heat are just 4-9 this season after losing seven of their last nine games overall. They even lost on the road to the 76ers 94-101 last time out. They have been dealing with injuries all season as Justise Winslow, Willie Reed and Wayne Ellington are expected to miss this contest.
Detroit is 24-9 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Pistons are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +106 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. These two met two nights ago in Pittsburgh and the Penguins were a -166 favorite. They now go from that to a dog because of the 5-2 loss and that’s simply incorrect. That game featured Marc Andre Fleury versus Antti Raanta and it was a case of the Rangers getting the superior goaltending. The Penguins absolutely dominated the first period and took a 2-0 lead into the break but the Rangers scored three times in the second and took over from there. Give the Rangers credit for a comeback victory or fault the Penguins for thinking it was going to be a walk in the park after one period. Either way it matters not, as all the value is on the Penguins as a pooch against a team they abused in last year’s playoffs. The personnel on both squads has not changed much since then and while the Rangers appear to be an improved squad, the numbers suggest they’re the same team that has trouble getting out of their own end.
Prior to defeating the Pens on Monday, the Rangers lost to Columbus and Florida. Prior to that, they defeated Vancouver but were outshot 38-25. In their 3-1 win over Edmonton last week, the Rangers were outshot 37-29. The list goes on of games in which the Rangers have been outplayed and out-chanced and ended up winning. Now Mika Zibanejad is down. Pavel Buchnevich is down. Their 12.4 percent even-strength shooting percentage is also a major outlier, so they’re likely in for some serious regression when that lucky number inevitably comes down. Furthermore, Henrik Lundqvist is declining big time but still thinks the NHL couldn’t function without him.
The Penguins haven’t been entirely consistent, but it’s asking a lot for the reigning champs to come out and hit the ground running. Still, when the focus is there, Pittsburgh might still be the best team in the NHL. Already loaded at forward, the Penguins may have another good one in Jake Guentzel, who scored twice in his debut. Again, the Pens wiped out the Rangers in five games in last year’s playoffs while outscoring them, 21-10. That’s the mismatch we expect to see here but more than that is the value, as Pittsburgh was a -166 over New York two days ago and now cannot be a pooch.
Winnipeg +150 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Wild have dropped two straight to Colorado and Dallas while scoring twice in each contest. Prior to that, Minnesota had a 1-0 loss and a 1-0 victory against Calgary and Boston respectively. Prior to that, the Wild had a 2-1 victory and a 3-2 loss to Ottawa and Philadelphia respectively. That’s six straight games in which Minnesota has scored two goals or less and it’s not like they played some of the league’s defensive juggernauts. Instead, the Wild played some of the NHL’s leakiest squads in Dallas, Philly, Calgary and Colorado. The Wild are a borderline playoff team that relies heavily on their goaltender to win games. When Charlie Coyle is your best player other than your goaltender, you might have some personnel issues. In any event, Minnesota is a HUGE risk at prices like this.
Meanwhile, the Jets have a terrific young roster that is too good to miss the playoffs. They may even be a postseason sleeper. The Jets have been crushed by injuries, an impossible schedule and the distraction that came with the Jacob Trouba holdout, yet they are still on the cusp of being really good. Mark Scheifele is the best unknown hockey player in the NHL. Scheifele is so good that Patrik Laine gets multiple, high quality scoring chances every game. The Jets are big, they’re strong, they’re physical and they’re quick and after a couple of days off, they figure to be a bit more energized than they were in Boston and Carolina over the weekend. We get the far superior team at an inflated price because the market is not aware of how good the Jets are. Hopefully it pays off.
Note: We'll have more NHL games posted later today, as a bunch of games were of off the board at the time of this writing.