Free Picks for Wednesday, November 30th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
SOUTHERN UTAH +9.5
I’m big on looking for intangibles when sizing up potential wagers. There’s a big one in play tonight as UNLV hits the road for the first time as the Rebels make the short trip to Cedar City to face the Thunderbirds.
UNLV has the better talent here, not much argument about that. But it is the initial road game after six straight at home and that can be a challenge regardless of the opponent.
Southern Utah is very limited in terms of personnel. The Thunderbirds have been a losing program for ages. Their last winning season was way back in 2006-07 and they’re going to likely be toward the bottom of the Big Sky again this year.
But here’s where the intangibles come in. Todd Simon is now the coach at Southern Utah after being the interim head guy for the Rebels last season after Dave Rice departed the scene. Simon certainly would have liked to become the full time coach here in Las Vegas, but the school decided to go in another direction.
I can pretty much guarantee that if there’s one game Simon would absolutely love to win this season, it’s tonight’s game against the Runnin’ Rebels.
Whether Southern Utah has enough to stay with UNLV for the full 40 remains to be seen. But I’m convinced this team will be ultra-fired up for the game and I suspect the visiting Rebels might get more than they bargained for tonight in Cedar City. I’m looking at taking the points with the Thunderbirds.
Scott Spreitzer
Wizards vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -6
Oklahoma City has won three straight with Russell Westbrook recording a triple-double in each one plus the Thunder's backup guard, Anthony Morrow, has made 13 of 19 shots the last two games while averaging 17.5 points. Westbrook finished with 27 points, 18 rebounds and 14 assists and Enes Kanter also scored 27 points with 10 reboounds in a 112-103 win at New York on Monday. The Thunder shot 50.0 percent from the field and held the Knicks to 39.6 percent. Washington had to go overtime to defeat Sacramento 101-95 with Bradley Beal scoring 31 points and John Wall adding 19 points. Wall is probable tonight with a knee injury. Oklahoma City has won and covered the last three meetings and the Wizards are 0-4 ATS after an ATS win. Washington is 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS on the road this season.
Ben Burns
Hawks vs. Suns
Play: Suns +6
While Phoenix may not be the most intimidating venue in the league, I don't feel the Hawks deserve to be laying this many points here. At least, not the way that they're currently playing. Atlanta, which is playing the final leg of a 5-game trip, has just one win in its past seven games. Having been away for some time, including through Thanksgiving, it may be easy to get caught thinking about the return trip home. For the season, the Hawks are now 4-6 SU/ATS away from Atlanta.
The Suns may be only 1-3 their last four games. However, only one of those four games resulted in a loss of greater than six points. Off a 120-114 setback last time out, note that they're 10-3 ATS the last 13 times that they'd allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. The Suns will be playing the third game of a 3-game homestand. Prior to that, they'd played six straight on the road. After this, they get a couple days off, before playing at Golden State next. Knowing that'll likely result in loss, I believe that they're going to be a little extra hungry to 'salvage' the homestand with a victory.
Mike Lundin
Wizards vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -6
The Wizards have won three of their last four following a 101-95 OT win against Sacramento on Monday. They're however 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road this season, with the lone road win at the lowly Orlando Magic. They'll take on a Thunder team that is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and coming off a 112-103 road win over the New York Knicks on Monday. Russell Westbrook recorded 27 points, a season-best 18 rebounds and 14 assists in that contest and he leads the NBA with eight triple-doubles on the season.
OKC has now won three on the bounce despite tricky games at Denver and New York and a dominant 106-88 win at home against the Pistons. The Thunder have won the past four meetings while going 3-0-1 ATS.
Rob Vinciletti
Los Angeles vs. Chicago
Play: Chicago -10
The Bulls fit a solid 90% system that pertains to their 4 days off in this game. Home favorites with 4+ days of rest in non division games have covered 90% since 1995 when coming off a road favored win and cover at -5 or more, while scoring 100 or more in that win and taking on an opponent like the laker with no rest. The Bulls have covered 6 of the last 7 and 8 of 11 at home when the total is 210 or more. The Lakers are off a game in New Orleans last night and are in a tough scheduling spot here. Look for the Bulls to coast in this one.
Jim Feist
Indiana at Portland
Pick: Indiana
Indiana is rested and the Pacers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 2 days rest. They are also 12-0 ATS after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. Portland is home but not covering games, 1-7 ATS at home. The Trail Blazers are also 7-20 ATS in their last 27 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. And the Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Wunderdog
Miami vs. Denver
Pick: Miami +6.5
The Denver Nuggets put together some strong teams over a five year period from 2008-2012. They became one of the top home courts in the NBA, going 205-55 SU. The team began to decline, and with it their home court no longer had any advantage, in fact it has been a disadvantage. Since the start of the 2013 season, the Nuggets have been below .500 at home at 62-69 SU. More importantly they have been a woeful 57-73-1 ATS, and just 26-37 ATS as a home favorite (13-26 ATS to a line of more than -4). The Heat have not played well enough to win, but since election day, they have lost just one game on the road by more than seven points, and have been competitive.
Dave Essler
Marshall +1
Marshall gets Ryan Taylor back from suspension. Not that having him against Ohio State wouldn't have made a huge difference, but against Ohio it certainly will. He was suspended by Coach D'Antoni after he was ejected in the Jackson State game for arguing with refs about fouls. Why bother arguing against Jackson State is yet another question, but he is an inside presence that shot over 60% from the floor last season. And last season Marshall was hammered by Ohio, and in that game Marshall sent Ohio to the line 31 times and shot 5-22 from behind the arc. Ohio is your typical fire-away from deep type of team which I don't like to back away from their own gym. Marshall gets to the line and has shot well from the stripe (see Valpo win last night) - so, revenge, Ryan back, better FT shooting, at home, more ways to score, and more experience. To just win the game.
Scott Rickenbach
New Hampshire vs. Providence
Play: Over 127
The Friars have seen all six of their games result in unders this season but this certainly looks like the game that will put an end to that streak. Providence is off of a 63 to 52 loss versus Virginia Saturday and the Friars are 6-0 to the over the last 6 times they've been held to 59 points or less in a game. Also, in games with a posted total in the 120 to 129.5 range, the long-term totals record for Providence is 13-4 to the over. The Friars have a big game on deck with in-state rival Rhode Island for Saturday and, as a result, I would not be surprised to see the defensive intensity lacking some in this one. New Hampshire has had some ugly performances on offense this season but after their worst one of the season, the Wildcats have responded with back to back wins and have averaged 75.5 points per game in the process of securing those two wins. With New Hampshire riding a 2-game winning streak and the Friars focusing on offense after a dismal effort on that end of the floor against the Mountaineers Saturday, I look for this one to easily eclipse the low number.
Teddy Covers
Pacers vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -7½
The Blazers have been a major early season disappointment. After finishing with the #5 seed in the West last year, Portland is just 9-10 SU, 6-13 ATS to open the new campaign. That includes six losses in their last eight games. Twice in their last three contests, the Blazers have allowed their opponent to score 130+ against them!
Less than 12 hours following the latest loss – at home against Houston on Sunday – head coach Terry Stotts had his team back on the practice floor. All Star point guard Damian Lillard: “This is the first time we've had a real practice in what seems like forever. It was good for us to try to sharpen up, (to have) coaches challenge us. It's to the point now where our pride has to kick in. We have to show how much we actually care about ... being better defensively."
Lillard continued: "We scored 125 points against Cleveland. That's a lot of points to score and not win a game. Right now, we're not getting it done on the defensive end. That's what it comes down to.”
Shooting guard Allen Crabbe concurred: “We keep preaching it, but it's getting old. At some point, it has to click. We keep telling ourselves we have to get better, but at some point, we have to get it going."
This is clearly a ‘maximum intensity’ game for the home favorite. That’s not the case for the road underdog. Indiana is coming off back-2-back very satisfying home wins over the Clippers and Nets, holding LA to a season low 70 points in a 21 point blowout on Sunday. They’re playing without their All Star, Paul George, and key role player CJ Miles, both listed as ‘out’ for tonight. They don’t play again after tonight until Sunday in LA – they’ve got a much needed break on deck; rarely a good thing for an NBA underdog.
The kicker here is Indiana’s own defensive issues. The Pacers have had one consistent bugaboo in early season play – an inability to stop quicker guards from dribble penetration, getting good looks in the paint for themselves and their teammates. The likes of Monte Ellis, Ron Stuckey and Aaron Brooks are not defensive stoppers. The Blazers backcourt duo of Lillard and CJ McCollum are as good a dribble penetrating duo as you’ll find in the league. That gives the Blazers a matchup edge to go along with their situational edge in a game they’re primed to win by margin!
Teddy Davis
Kings vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +5
I think we will see a nice quality effort from the Sixers with Embiid returning to the lineup. The Kings are in a tough spot here playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and I doubt they have much interest in playing this game tonight. The Sixers have played very well at home going 9-3 ATS so far this season. With a poor team like the Kings it's also very hard for me to lay anything on the road with them. Kings just 2-5 ATS L7 games vs team with a losing record.
Stephen Nover
Heat vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets -6
Denver is a team on the rise. Miami is a team on the decline. Look for that to play out in today's game.
The Heat will be missing key contributors Dion Waiters and Justice Winslow as they open a three-game road trip. Miami is 5-12 because its talent level is way down. Not having those two injured players further weakens the Heat.
Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic are the Heat's only two good players and both of them are dealing with injuries. Neither is 100 percent. The rest of the Heat players are backup quality.
The Nuggets, by contrast, are getting healthier. They are expected to get back Danilo Gallinari, their best offensive player, spark plug Will Barton and Juancho Hernangomez.
Denver's strength is its rebounding with big men Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nukic. This is going to be a tough matchup for Whiteside, who has a sore knee.
The Nuggets have had two days of rest and preparation. They have covered four of the past five times when having two days off. Denver has taken care of business at home recently. The Nuggets have defeated the Suns by 16 points, Jazz by 14 and Bulls by three while losing to the Raptors in overtime and Thunder in overtime during their past five home games.
The Heat are a much lesser foe than the Bulls, Raptors, Thunder and Jazz. So look for the Nuggets to follow their pattern and beat the Heat by a comfortable margin.
Brandon Lee
Knicks vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves -3½
I think we are getting some great value here with the Timberwolves laying a small number at home against the Knicks. New York is getting a lot of love from the books due to the fact that they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games, but they come in off back-to-back losses and are just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road this season. The Timberwolves haven't been as good as expected, but are a team I think is only going to keep getting better as the season moves on. This is a big spot for them, as they have something to prove after losing at home last time out against the Jazz. This is also a tough spot for New York to get up for this game, as these two teams will turn around and play in New York on Friday.
Ken Lowden
St. Mary's vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford +3½
Stanford (6-1) is at home tonight against St. Mary's (5-0). Stanford should not be receiving points at home, where they crush their opponent by an average of 17.3 points per game. St. Mary's is undefeated after only just 5 games and have played sub-par opponents. Do not allow their record to fool you. This Stanford team plays incredible defense, holding their opponents to only 59.7 points per game. Stanford will shut St. Mary's down and get the win in their building.