Power Play of the Day
Cubs
Rob Vinciletti
Cubs vs. Brewers
Pick: Over 8.5
This game fits a solid system that averages 11.6 run per game. What we want to do is play the over for certain road teams, like the Cubs who are off a road dog los and scored 2 or less runs vs an opponent that scored 10 or more runs on the road in their last game. The Brewers are off a 20-0 win at Pittsburgh, handing the Pirates their worst loss in their 124 year existence. Now the Brewers return home to play the Cubs. These two met last week and all 3 games posted overs. In fact in the series 23 of the past 33 games have played over the total. The Brewers were averaging over 6 rpg over the past 7 before the 20 run explosion. The Cubs have been all or nothing at the plate, however it should be much easier to score vs J,Suppan than it was against J.Santana. Suppan allowed 4 runs in 5 innings vs the Cubs last Friday. The Cubs will counter with R.Dempster tonight. Dempster was hit hard by the Brewers last week allowing 5 earned runs in 6 innings of work. As for the bullpens. Milwaukee has a 5.20 era and the Cubs have a horrible 7.76 era. Based on the system, the series history and the Pitching stats I will recommend an over the total in this game. Play Milwaukee and Chicago over the total on Friday night.
King Creole
3* DEN / UTA Under 215
The OU line is ALREADY working its way DOWN off the opening number... so get your play in ASAP. This Nugget / Jazz GAME THREE has many of the same similarities as Game Three of the Blazers / Suns series last night (in which we were on the UNDER). That game went Under the Total... and we'll stick with a lower-than-expected outcome tonight as well. That Portland / Phoenix series went 'OVER the TOTAL' in each of the first two games.... and the same is true for tonight's matchup. Denver and Utah went 'OVER' by 21 points in Game One... and by 12 points in Game Two.
3-16-1 O/U since 1995: All GAME THREE home favorites of 4 points in these games, the results improve to a PERFECT 0-9 O/U (with last night's UNDERE in the Portland / Phoenix game WINNING)....
I mentioned this System last night. It pertains to ALL round one / game three situations (also known as the '1/3' game ). The higher the OU line, the better the 'UNDER' results...
4-19 O/U: All ROUND One / GAME three home teams (Jazz)... when the Ou line is 191 > points. When the OU line is 200 > pts, the results improve to 2-14 O/U.... and when the OU line is 204 > points, the results are a PERFECT 0-8 O/U (with the Suns/ / Blazers game AGAIN cashing in this situation last night).
What about DIVISION opponents hooking up against each other in the THIRD game of a Playoff series?
3-13 O/U: All NBA Playoff GAME THREE home teams when the OU line is 191 > points (Jazz). And favorites of 2 > points have gone a perfect 0-7 O/U in this situation.
1-9 O/U since 1998: All GAME THREE home teams involving WESTERN CONFERENCE opponents from the SAME division (Jazz / Nuggets)... when the OU line is 196 > points. Since the 2003 season, these games have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U.
Let's look at the 'short' line in tonight's game (Utah is favored by only -2.5 points)... and the relatively HIGH Over / Under line....
6-20 O/U: All NBA Playoff GAME THREE home favorites of 4 points.
Utah won Game Two as an Underdog on Monday night...
1-7 O/U since 2005: All GAME THREE favorites (any round) of points...
0-3 O/U in the NBA Playoffs when the OU line is 215 > points...
3-12 O/U in ROUND ONE home games... including a perfect 0-6 O/U when the OU line is 185 > points...
4-18 O/U in All Playoff games when playing off a SU post-season UNDERDOG win... including 2-13 O/U in the last 12 seasons.
DENVER NUGGETS:
1-7 O/U in ALL Playoff GAME THREES... including 0-4 O/U in the last 5 years...
0-3 O/U in the NBA Playoffs when the OU line is 215 > points...
5-17 O/U in ALL Playoff ROUND ONE road games... including 1-12 O/U since the 2005 season...
4-20 O/U as ALL Playoff UNDERDOGS since 2005... including 2-17 O/U in ROUND ONE... and 0-10 O/U in the OU line range of 191 to 223 points.
ASA
4* Dallas Mavericks / San Antonio Spurs OVER 193.5
Tonight we are playing OVER the total in the Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs game. We cashed the ‘under’ in Game 2 of this series and now flip and bet the ‘over’. Here’s why. In Game 1 of this series these two teams totaled 194 points. The Spurs shot 50% for the game while the Mavericks hit 47.3% of their shots. The games ‘pace of play’ was slightly slower as they attempted just 152 shots. In Game 2 these two combined for 190 total points. San Antonio shot well again by hitting 48.2% of their field goal attempts but Dallas didn’t have their touch, making only 36.5% from the field. San Antonio and Dallas played at a faster tempo as they attempted 168 shots for the game, 16 more attempts than Game 1. They had combined for 104 points at halftime and it looked like the game was going well over the total but then they managed just 36 points in the 4th quarter. A big reason they scored so few points in the fourth is the fact that San Antonio had a big lead and it wasn’t a close game. The two big stars in this series are Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki who have scored a combined 112 points in the two games already. The Spurs have had their way in the paint scoring 40 points in Game 2 and 50 points in Game 1 against the poor interior defense of the Mavericks. What makes this a solid bet most of all though is the pace of play numbers and how these teams play when home and away. The Spurs average 97 ppg when playing on the road and prefer a slower tempo game when traveling. At home those numbers change dramatically as they play faster and score more averaging 105.5 ppg in San Antonio. The exact same can be said for Dallas as they score 101.1 ppg at home and 102.2 when on the road. The Mavericks also play at a faster pace when away compared to being at home. No matter how I cut it this game sets up for a dead ‘over’ unless both teams shoot 42% or lower. Bet the OVER!
Scott Rickenbach
10* (TOP PLAY) Dallas Mavericks (+) @ San Antonio
After losing by double digits on their home floor Wednesday, look for a huge response from the Mavericks here. We certainly have some strong ATS data to support our position in this crucial Game Three match-up. The Mavericks went 8-2 ATS in road games this season where the total was posted between 190 and 194.5 points. In fact, the Mavericks were a solid road bet all season as they were 26-15 ATS in all their road games this season. Also, when tied in a playoff series, the Mavs on a long-term 12-6 ATS run. We’re now going to talk about some amazing straight-up numbers Dallas compiled this season and, of course, we can do that here because the Mavericks are the underdog in this match-up - any straight-up win equates to an ATS win. Not only did Dallas go 27-14 on the road this season, look at some of the applicable situational numbers that are in play here! The Mavericks went 10-4 this season when off of a loss by ten points or more. Also, the Mavs went 13-4 when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Dallas has responded well to adversity all season long and they will certainly be fired up after allowing the Spurs to get a huge lead on them on their home floor in Game Two. The Mavericks kept battling back but ultimately fell well short after getting within five points late.
The eventual 16 point margin in the Mavs defeat Wednesday is helping to give us some line value here. Keep in mind, the Mavs also were a solid 27-18 against teams with a winning record this season while San Antonio was just 23-20 against winning teams. The Spurs also are 6-11 ATS this season when they are off of a divisional match-up. Most key of all here, considering the way the Mavs respond off of an upset loss, is the way the Spurs tend to play poorly off of an upset win. After an outright win as an underdog this season, San Antonio went just 3-7 straight-up in their next game and an ugly 2-8 ATS in those ten instances this season! Also, the Spurs last three games (includes their season finale at Dallas) have all been on the road and San Antonio is 3-7 ATS this season when they enter a game having played three consecutive road games. The Spurs are 4-7 ATS in first round playoff games the last three seasons. Tim Duncan has been a monster for San Antonio so far in this series but we also expect a response from the Mavericks own big star in this game. That would be Dirk Nowitzki and, after he had a rough night and the Mavs - as a team - made just 36.5% of their shots Wednesday, look for a huge response here. The only other two times that the Mavs have been held under 40% shooting in a game this month they responded by shooting 53% in their next game. They will also respond here and we love the situational edges here with the Spurs off of the big upset win on the road while the Mavericks were taking the beating on the other end of that game Wednesday. It’s “response time” here and we like the line value with having a few points on our side to work with as well. Don’t forget, the Mavericks had won 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams before losing Wednesday’s game. It’s time for payback. Play Dallas plus the points as a *10* Top Play selection.
10* (TOP PLAY) OVER the total in Kansas City vs. Minnesota
Two struggling starting pitchers, favorable winds, and two hot lineups all combines to give strong edges for an over in Kansas City Friday. The rain is expected to move through the area early in the day so, while there is a chance some scattered storms could still be around, it’s very likely that this game should experience no weather delays. Considering the favorable winds we expect as well as all the other positive variables with regarding to the pitching and hitting in this match-up, there was no way we were going to pass up on raising this one to our highest level. Gil Meche’s most recent start was Saturday in Minnesota and the Twins rocked him. This was after a horrific outing at home against Boston began his season. The fact that Meche is giving the red hot Twins lineup a quick second look here on Friday isn’t going to help him either. That’s also the case for Carl Pavano of the Twins.
Pavano just faced the Royals on Sunday and they are now getting a quick second look. Considering they rocked him for 7 runs in just 3.1 innings in Minnesota that is bad news. Keep in mind, Pavano has never enjoyed much success against the Royals. In his career, the Twins right-hander is 4-5 with a 7.44 ERA and a .344 BAA in games against Kansas City. Making the Royals even more dangerous now is the fact that Alex Gordon has returned to the lineup after missing the first ten games of the season. The Twins lineup will also get a boost today after they only managed one run against Cleveland in a game that Joe Mauer was rested. The catcher’s big bat will be back in the lineup tonight. The Royals .296 batting average so far this season is tops in the American League. The Twins .358 onbase percentage is third in the American League. It shows you just how dangerous each of these teams lineups have been so far this season. Also, the Royals 5.41 ERA is worst in the American League. It comes as no surprise then that Kansas City is 10-5 to the over this season. Included within that stat is this: the Royals are a near perfect 8-1 to the over in divisional games. All three games in this series last weekend went over the total and no game had less than 11 runs (the games averaged 13 runs). Look for more of the same here. Play OVER the total in Kansas City as a *10* Top Play selection.
6* BUFFALO
Some amazing stuff has happened in this series that has allowed the Bruins to take a 3-1 lead so far. While we don’t play big favorites, and rarely even go into the moderate price range that this one is in, we won’t hesitate to back Buffalo here. The Sabres are on home ice and playing for their playoff lives. Even though Tuukka Rask has been extremely solid between the pipes for Boston, note the Sabres Ryan Miller has also played extremely well - as usual - for Buffalo. The problems for the Sabres have been blown leads late. They are 1-2 in this series when leading after two periods. They were 30-0 in that situation in the regular season! Also, the Sabres have had leads by a multiple goal margin in two of the four games in this series and yet been unable to hold on. In fact, despite only trailing for 20 minutes of this entire series, the Sabres are down 3-1. That is virtually unconscionable. While we give the Bruins credit for battling back, we also note that they are facing a Sabres team that will be playing their “game of the year” on home ice to try and get a key win and send this series back to Boston down just 3-2. Even though the Sabres have dealt with some injuries up front, keep in mind, the Bruins were one of the lowest scoring teams in the league this season and certainly have their own set of issues offensively. Also, we wouldn’t be surprised if Thomas Vanek - the Sabres leading scorer (and he scored 20 power play goals in the 08-09 season) - ends up playing tonight. He did skate yesterday.
Even if Vanek doesn’t play tonight we all saw what happened in Game Four. The Sabres were up 2-0 after two periods as they continue to battle through their injuries without issue. The problem has been blown leads but, as you can see from the stats above, that is the exception rather than the norm. That said, we feel strongly that the Sabres are value priced here considering the home ice edge and the fact that they’re facing elimination. This line appears to be priced based on Boston having been the “better team” to be up 3-1 in the series rather than Buffalo having been the “better team” by only trailing for 20 minutes in the first four games of this series combined! Note that the Bruins are 2-4 this season when they enter a game on a three game winning streak. Also, in road games where the total is 5 or less, the Bruins are 16-22 the last three seasons. The Sabres went 10-5 on Friday nights this season and we look for them to improve they entered this season on a long-term 25-13 run in first round playoff games. Look for them to respond to this 3-1 deficit as they once again grab the lead and, this time, Miller and Company close the deal! Play Buffalo on the money line as a *6* Regular Play selection.
The Duke's Sports
Utah (-2') for 3 Units
Utah should keep control of this series now that they stole Game 2 in Denver. Utah's bench really stepped up its game Monday with Millsap and Korver providing quality offensive production. And Fesenko, who did a decent job filling in for Okur, should be more confident at home. he Jazz are 6-1 ATS as a playoff favorite in this spread range, and they're 20-8 ATS at home vs a team with a losing road record. The Nuggets looked lost down the stretch of Game 2 under the direction of Dantley. Moreover, the Nuggets defense is suffering and should be apparent tonight. Nuggets are just 4-11 ATS when an opponent scores 100+ in previous game. We'll grab the Jazz.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
8* Heat -4
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Boston won convincingly last time out without Kevin Garnett in the lineup, but I expect a letdown from this team tonight as it travels to Miami for Game 3.
Boston is a horrible 7-20 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest; also just 8-15 ATS after a win by 10 points or more; which means that this team is highly susceptible to a letdown after a big outing.
On the other side of the court: Miami has its back against the wall and will look to win its first game of the series with the help of the home town crowd; “You’ve got to keep in perspective that a series doesn’t start until a team wins on the other team’s court, so we’ve got to come home and take care of our home court,” Dwayne Wade said. “We played well toward the end of the year at home and we should be very confident here. The crowd is going to be amazing, so we have to use that to get ourselves an edge.”
Keep in mind, Miami has actually done very well in this position; 11-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in their previous contest; which of course means, that after a sub par defensive performance, this team comes out fired up and clamps down the next time out.
Bottom line: I look for the HEAT to come out fired up in this one and to push the ball at every given opportunity; home court advantage can't be overlooked in this case.
10* Mavs / Spurs Over 193.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
Dallas will come out firing tonight and was the leagues best road team during the regular season.
It will be looking to bounce back from a rare poor shooting night; just 37%; Dirk Nowitzki will also look to get back on track after scoring 24, going 9 of 24 from the floor.
Jason Terry was dominant though; 27 points off the bench.
Keep in mind that Dallas has seen the total go "over" the number in six of its last nine on the road.
On the other side of the court: Tim Duncan has had a big two games and I expect him to continue his dominating performance in San Antonio.
Duncan had 25 points and 17 boards last time out; Manu Ginobli has also been hot and whose resurgence since the All-Star break was a big reason for the Spurs making the playoffs.
Important to point out that San Antonio has seen the total go "over" the number five of its last five in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this game; Dallas is a hot road team and won't be intimidated tonight and is looking to atone for an off shooting night; San Antonio will have to match its intensity; *10* West. Conf. "TOP TOTAL"
8* Nuggets +2.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Denver:
Denver knows it let one get away last time out; “We could have easily won the game,” acting coach Adrian Dantley said before the Nuggets’ short flight to Utah on Thursday. “We had the game down the stretch we just missed some shots and we let Derron Williams hurt us.”
I expect Carmelo Anthony to get more open looks in this game as Denver runs some different schemes.
Denver is 7-1-2 ATS its last ten vs. Utah, regardless of the location; also a perfect 6-0 ATS this year when playing with three or more days of rest.
On the other side of the court: Although they won last time out, I expect the injury bug to finally catch up to the Jazz tonight.
Utah center Mehmet Okur is out for the rest of the playoffs with a torn Achilles’ tendon he suffered in Game 1. The Jazz are also without forward Andrei Kirilenko, recovering from a strained calf and not likely to be ready before this series ends.
Utah is just 7-9 ATS this year vs. division opponents.
Bottom line: Look for DENVER to improve to 11-6 ATS its last 17 when playing the roll of underdog and for Utah to drop to 3-6 ATS its last nine overall.
MR EAST
MLB FRIDAY UNDER THE RADAR
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
3 UNITS: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS +154
Tim Lincecum continues to dominate National League hitters to the tune of an 0.90 ERA through his forst 3 starts. He has not faced this St. Louis lineup since April of 2008. It will be a challenge. The Cards are 8-3 vs righthanders on the season, and have produced 50 runs in 8 road games against them. The Giants have dropped 4 straight games, and their offense is really struggling, having produced 5 runs in their last 4 games. I'll go with St. Louis here.
Joe D'Amico
Mavericks at Spurs
Pick: Spurs -3
For the battle of Texas supremacy, San Antonio took a big step in their 102-88 win in Game 2. With 25 points and 17 boards, Tim Duncan took this entire series on his back in Game 2. Outside of Forward Dirk Nowitzki, the rest of the Maverick’s looked absolutely lifeless. At 29-12 SU this season, the Spur’s are a great home team. They have a ton of post-season experience and know how important a win tonight will be. The home team is 7-3 ATS their L10 meetings. The Mav’s are 1-4 ATS their L5 as a ‘dog. The Spur’s are 8-2 ATS their L10 at home, 7-2 ATS their L9 games played on 1 days rest, and 19-8 ATS their L27 overall. The Spur’s take down the Mav’s.
BIG AL
HIGH ROLLER - HEAT
Tom Freese
Dallas +3.5
NYY -128
JB Sports
3* Miami -4
Red Dog Sports
Utah at Chicago
Play: Utah +23
The Utah Blaze play at the Chicago Rush in AFL action. Chicago is 3-0 and Utah is 0-2 and the game is at Chicago but I think the line is too high. In the 18 AFL games this year, there have been only 2 losses by more than 23 points. That was Utah's opening loss at home to Spokane by 34 and last week there was a game decided by 26 points.
Chicago has played one home game and that was a 59-56 win over Cleveland and they won at Iowa by 18 and won at Arizona by 14 last week. They are led by QB Russ Muchna and a defense that leads in int's.
Utah started Brett Elliott last week and he played decent. His top receiver is Aaron Boone and they are led by kick returner Brandon Hampton, who has 7 returns for 251 yards and 3 TD's this year. He was voted Iron Man of the Week for his play last game, as he had an interception for a TD too.
The kicking game favors Chicago, as they have Robbie Gould (ex-Bear kicker), while Utah's Byrd may be the worst in the league.
This will be Utah's first road game and they could get blown out but I like our chances for Chicago to win by 14 to 21 and stay within the very high number.
Utah +23
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units San Fran -165
1 Unit LA Dodgers -122
1 Unit Florida +105
C-Star Sports
5000 Units Houston Over Pittsburgh
1000 Units White Sox/Seattle under the total
1000 Units Dallas plus the points over Spurs
1000 Units Denver plus the points over Utah
50 Units NHL Boston/Buffalo Under the total
50 Units NBA Boston/Miami under the total