Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
5* Rockies
I'm sold that flakey lefty Barry Zito is going to have one of those strong all around seasons, after a string of up and down campaigns. Lefties are like that. And no southpaw is pitching better, at 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA. Colorado is a team Zito has thrown very well against, with a 4-2 record and a 1.98 ERA. And now he has an improved San Fran offense working for him. The Rockies are not a great road team and starter Aaron Cook has struggled, with a 1-2 mark and a 5.01 ERA. He has a losing record and a 4.87 ERA all time against worse Giants teams than this one. Play the Giants.
CT Sports Picks Guaranteed Selections
LA Lakers +1.5
Lakers need to closeout this young OKC tonight and get some rest if they are going to have any chance at winning the next round. Putting Kobe on Westbrook was a genius move that really shut down the Thunders drive and kick. Look for Thunder to struggle again as Kobe's defense leads his team to a win. Too big and strong on inside as Lakers flex their strength tonight.
Big AL
3* Rangers +132
3* Angels -124
3* Jazz -4.5
3* Thunder -1.5
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Utah -5
50* Thunder -1
Mike Lineback
4'* Phillies -150
Mark Fox
Red Sox -155
Guaranteed Pick: Ben Burns
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs Apr 30 2010 2:20PM
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Reason: I'm laying the price with the CHICAGO CUBS. The Diamondbacks scored the upset in yesterday's opener but I expect the Cubs to bounce back in a big way this afternoon. Wells gets the call and he's 2-0 with an excellent 2.49 ERA through four starts. Last time out, he allowed two runs through seven complete innings, en route to earning a 12-2 victory at Milwaukee. Note that he had six K's and zero walks. Lopez goes for the visitors and, unlike Wells, he's coming off a rough outing. While he escaped with a no-decision, he allowed 10 hits and six earned runs. That was at home, but Lopez also struggled in his lone road start. In that outing, at LA on 4/14, he gave up 11 hits in five innings, allowing five runs, four of them earned. Wells dominated in his only start against the Diamondbacks. In that game, he had a whopping 10 K's in seven innings, en route to earning a 5-0 victory. He allowed just three hits while walking only one. That works out to a 0.00 ERA and 0.571 WHIP. On the other hand, Well has an ugly 7.59 ERA in two starts against the Cubs. He was awful in his lone start here at Wrigley, allowing eight earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. He only had one strikeout, walked four batters and gave up nine hits. Even with yesterday's victory, Arizona is still just 49-59 in day games the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, the Cubs are 97-69 when they've played during the day. After yesterday's loss, manager Lou Piniella noted: "We've got to have a little urgency" and I expect to see that today as the Cubs bounce back and even up the series. *8
Stan Lisowski
4* Denver / Utah Under 217
Utah has a strong 66% tendency towards going under in post season home games. In this series this year, the games played in Utah have averaged 14 points less than in Denver in the regular season and 16 points less during the playoffs. Denver is on a 4-16 run to the under on the road in the post-season.
Cajun-Sports Executive Club
Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz
Pick: Utah Jazz -4.5
The Denver Nuggets travel to Utah for Game Six of their best-of-seven series versus the Jazz trailing two games to three. Denver was able to hold off elimination with a 116 to 102 pounding of the Jazz in the Mile High City in Game Five but the inevitable is at hand tonight in Utah. The Nuggets were able to slow the Jazz offense in Game Five holding them to a series low 45.2 percent from the field. It’s highly unlikely they will be able to match that performance tonight in Salt Lake. Denver got solid performances from several role players and five Nuggets other than Carmelo Anthony scored double-digits in that win. The Jazz will look to Deron Williams who became the first player in NBA history to record five straight twenty-point/ten assist double-doubles to start a series to once again lead this team to victory. Utah is 8-2 ATS coming off a double-digit loss and 17-4 ATS off a road loss. Denver has not been the same team on the road especially when it comes to covering the spread going 1-8-1 ATS their last ten away from the Mile High City. Denver’s poor play recently against the number triggers a league-wide system that tells us to Play Against NBA road teams after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against the spread, in a game involving teams with a win percentage of sixty to seventy-five percent. This system has produced a record of 83-53 ATS the last five seasons for 61 percent winners and 24.7 units of profit. We also have three power angles that support the Jazz in this situation. Utah is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after allowing 110 points or more this season, 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a road loss by 10 points or more this season and 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points this season. A check of our database reveals two league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s Game Six. Play AGAINST an NBA playoff team with 3 series losses and less than 2 days rest off a straight up win shooting 47 percent or better from the three-point line. These teams are 0-8 ATS in their next game and fail to cover the spread by a whopping 13.0 points per game. The final system won last night with San Antonio closing out their series with the Dallas Mavericks. This system says to Play ON an NBA playoff team with a 3-2 series lead off a straight up loss in its last game and not a straight up win of 21 or more points prior to that loss. These teams are now a perfect 10-0 ATS and average covering the spread by a remarkable 18.2 points per game. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a big win for the host Jazz on Friday night in Salt Lake City winning by 11.4 points. Our Math Model and PPR Index also favor the Jazz by 10.6 and 12.0 points over the visiting Denver Nuggets. The combination of strong fundamentals, technical and situational support all point to a solid win and cover by the Utah Jazz as they close out this series and advance to the next round of the playoffs. Lay the short price with Utah as they cash the winning ticket on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Utah Jazz 109 Denver Nuggets 99
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians (
Pick: Minnesota Twins
The Twins travel to Cleveland for a weekend series with the Indians. Minnesota is 14-7 on the season showing a 5.7 unit profit overall. They are 71-46 playing in the first game of a series for a profit of +2410 units. The Twins are 8-4 on the road, 10-6 versus right-handed starters and 10-2 when playing under the lights this season. Minnesota ranks eighth in pitching overall with a team ERA of 3.68 and their opponents are hitting .262 against them. In the hitting category the Twins are ranked thirteenth with a batting average of .264 averaging five runs per game. Their bullpen has done a nice job with an overall ERA of 2.90 and a road ERA of 2.50. Cleveland is 16-32 (-15.6 Units) versus a bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities the last 2 seasons. Minnesota faces an Indians team that is 9-12 on the year and 5-9 versus right-handed starters. Cleveland ranks twenty-seventh in the league in hitting with a batting average of .238 averaging 3.5 runs per game. The Indians rank thirteenth in pitching with an ERA of 3.93 and teams are hitting .254 against them with OPS of .776. The Twins will send Kevin Slowey to the bump with his 2-2 record and ERA of 3.42. In his career versus the Indians he is a profitable 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA including a win back on April 20th where the Twins got the win 5 to 1. He pitched eight strong innings giving up one earned run on five hits no walks and nine strikeouts. Cleveland will send Fausto Caromona to the hill with his perfect 3-0 mark and ERA of 2.96 on the season. Over his career versus the Twins he is 3-5 with an ERA of 5.15 with his last start coming last September where he lost 5 to 4 going 5.3 innings giving up five earned runs on nine hits three walks and three strikeouts. We know that teams coming off a loss in which their opponent left fewer than ten runners on base are only 28-43 for a profit of +1415 units when playing against them. This system qualifies the Cleveland Indians as the play AGAINST team here versus the Twins. We have another play AGAINST MLB System that qualifies Cleveland and it says to Play AGAINST any MLB team who scores 4.2 or fewer runs per game against a team whose bullpen has an ERA of 3.33 or better with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start. Playing against these teams has produced a record of 70-28 for 71.4 percent and +35.9 units of profit. We look for Caromona’s win streak to end here as the Twins have the better overall team and Slowey has had success against the tribe over his career including earlier this season holding them to only one run. We will back the road underdog here as the Twins grab an opening game win and set the tone for this weekend series versus the Indians.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 4* Minnesota Twins 6 Cleveland Indians 3
Jimmy Boyd
3* SMASH on Lakers +1
The Lakers don't want this series to go any further. It's been a great showing by this young Thunder team, but I expect the Lakers to flex their muscles and end this series tonight. In fact, plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3, after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game, against an opponent that scored 35 points or less in the first half last game (same team in this case since it is a series), are 26-6 ATS the last 14 seasons, 10-3 ATS the last 5 seasons and 1-0 ATS this season. Under Phil Jackson, dominant play has been contagious. In fact, the Lakers are 12-2 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half under coach Jackson, winning by an average of 5 ppg in this situation. No Laker played more than 32 minutes in Game 5 so they should be fresh and hungry tonight. Kobe and the boys no this game is a big test in determining if they are ready to win another title. I just don't see them not showing up tonight.
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Hawks -2
I think you'll all agree with me that Atlanta is the more talented team. Milwaukee has played harder and smarter the last 3 games and it has won them all as a result, but I can't see the more talented side losing 4 straight times. This is one of the most motivated spots I've seen the Hawks in all season. They are playing with triple revenge and facing elimination after completely blowing Game 5 in the closing minutes. If the Hawks have any heart at all, and I think they do, they'll win this game comfortably tonight. Road favorites that are out to revenge an upset loss as a home favorite are 77-37 ATS the last 14 seasons, including 4-1 ATS this season. The favorite is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings between these two teams. The Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as an underdog. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a small favorite of 4.5 or less points. The Hawks have the better players and the motivation, and this should result in a big win tonight.
4* Major Friday Bases *BEST BET* on Twins -105
Off back-to-back losses, look for the Twins to get back in the win column tonight whether or not Justin Morneau, who is listed as questionable, is able to go. Even with Morneau not in the lineup, I still think the Twins have the better offense. One that is averaging 5.0 runs per game compared to the 3.5 runs per game that the Tribe are averaging. But where I really see the advatage for the Twins tonight is on the hill. I know Carmona is off to a nice start this season, but the Twins are a team that knows him well and have punished him. In fact, Carmona has lost 4 straight decisions to the Twins with an earned run average of 5.20 in those starts. Meanwhile, Slowey has been downright nasty in 3 straight wins over the Indians, posting a 1.33 ERA in those starts. The Twins are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss. Take them to get back in the win column tonight.
MATT FARGO
10* LA Lakers +1.5
9* Utah Jazz -4.5
8* Milwaukee Bucks +2
Craig Davis
50 Units Jazz
25 Units Bucks
10 Units Florida RL
5 Units SFran
BEN BURNS
8* Chicago Cubs
Scott Spreitzer
25* Knockout
I'm playing the Lakers on Friday night. All of the talk about Kobe "taking the night off" in game four went out the window when the Lakers rocked OKC in game-five. The biggest adjustment from the two losing games in Oklahoma City to the game-five easy win was not necessarily Kobe's offensive game, but instead, what he did on the defensive end. The Lakers were being bothered by Russell Westbrook's play on OKC's offensive end. So, before game-five, Kobe told Phil Jackson to let him cover Westbrook. The rest is history. While solid teams counter their opponents adjustments next time out, I just don't believe the Thunder have the experience to make it happen. The Lakers regained their swagger, and I doubt they'll let up now. Derek Fisher said it's all about emotion at this point. Fisher said, "...we'll have to be the team that keeps our emotions and our poise in check the most." In a situation like this, I'd much rather side with the veteran-laden, defending NBA champs, than a bunch of talented, but very young upstarts. Los Angeles knows a thing or two about closing teams out on the road. They're shooting for their third straight tonight, going back to last season. The Lakers are an outstanding 18-4 SU when playing on at least two days rest, winning by an average of 102-94. The Lakers are 33-19 ATS as a dog this season, albeit a small one at the time of this release. I believe the Lakers hit their rock-bottom in game-four, and finally flipped on the playoff switch in game-five. Kobe took over by limiting Westbrook and I don't believe OKC will have the answer. I'm playing the L.A. Lakers, my Friday night Knockout.
1st Round Western Conference GOY
I'm laying the points with the Jazz on Friday night. I had Denver and cashed last time out, but this Nuggets' team is not playing with much intensity on the defensive end, and their team chemistry leaves a lot to be desired. One of the biggest problems for Denver in this particular opponent, is the fact that Denver plays a lazy brand of defense. They look to force turnovers, rather than denying shots. That's not the greatest strategy when facing a team that's led by Deron Williams. The Utah guard just doesn't make a lot of mistakes. Instead, he takes care of the ball and finds the open man...normally in the paint in this series. Utah has killed the Nuggets inside and nothing changes tonight. The Jazz are shooting "lights-out" because they're getting a plethora of high-percentage looks. With the way Denver is playing on the defensive end, I expect the opportunities to be there again tonight. The Jazz scored a combined 98 points in the paint in their last two wins in this series. While Utah is a tough nut to crack in Salt Lake (25-9-2 ATS run), the Nuggets have been a serious money-burner on the road, going 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 away from home. In fact, Denver has covered just 6 of their last 21, overall. The Jazz are not only on a 20-6 ATS run off a SU loss, but they're also on an 8-1-1 ATS run as a playoff fave of less than five points (4 1/2 at the time of this release). Look for Utah to take care of business, pounding the ball inside one more night, eliminating the Nuggets. I'm laying the points with Utah on Friday, my 1st Round Western Conference Game of the Year.
THE BOOOOJ
15 UNIT Atlanta Hawks