Don Wallace Sports
4* Utah -4.5
Erin Rynning
Lakers Under 194.5
Nuggets Under 216
STEVE BUDIN-CEO
FRIDAY'S PICKS
NBA
25 DIME Utah Jazz (BUY HOOK)
MLB
25 DIME New York Yankees - 1 1/2 RL
Baseball Whisper
Giants/Colorado over 7.5 POD
KIKI SPORTS
3 units Seattle -150
1 unit Oklahoma City -1.5
1 unit Colorado +130
Jeff Benton
20 Dime: MILWAUKEE BUCKS
10 Dime: TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5
Bucks
Absolutely I’ll ride momentum here with the Milwaukee Bucks. In fact, I was absolutely astounded when I first saw the number the oddsmakers hung on this game. I was certain Milwaukee would be laying a good 3-4 points, so for them to actually be a home underdog? Sign me up!
Look, maybe this line is a trap – we’ll see. But all I know is I watched that fourth quarter in Atlanta last night, and I saw the same thing I’ve seen this entire series: For whatever reason, the Hawks absolutely cannot stay focused for 48 minutes (actually, I know the reason: Their coach stinks, and the players are selfish individuals). Even in their 10-point wins in Games 1 and 2, Atlanta had stretches where it just completely came unglued on both ends of the court.
In Game 1, they saw a 62-40 halftime lead shrink to five after getting outscored 30-19 in the third quarter.
In Game 2, they squandered most of a 19-point lead and needed a late push to cover the number.
In Game 3, they got blitzed in the first (36-19 deficit) and third (26-17) quarters and trailed by as many as 28.
In Game 4, they fell apart again in the third quarter, getting outscored 31-24 in a game they eventually lost by seven points (and Milwaukee had a 13-point lead at one juncture).
And finally, there was the Game 5 fourth-quarter debacle, with Atlanta squandering a nine-point lead with four minutes to play, allowing the Bucks to go on a 13-0 run to take control and win 91-87.
Don’t know if you saw the look on the faces of the Hawks’ players after that Game 5 stunner, but I did. They looked completely bewildered and deflated, like they didn’t believe what just happened. Now, after a blowing a 2-0 series lead and just 48 hours removed from Wednesday’s stunning loss, they have to regroup, go back to Milwaukee and win an elimination game against an opponent that smells blood and is brimming with confidence? I just don’t see it happening.
After all, since a thrilling seven-game opening round series against Boston in 2008, the Hawks have now played 11 road playoff games the last three years … and they have exactly one win and one spread-cover. That’s right: 1-11 SU and ATS. On the other hand, with the victories in Games 3 and 4, the Bucks are now 30-13 at the Bradley Center this season.
Bottom line: All the pressure in this game – ALL of it – is on the Hawks. And this team has NOT dealt with pressure very well at all, not in this postseason or the last two. And you cannot convince me that Atlanta has had enough time to get over what happened in that fourth quarter Wednesday night – there is no doubt there will be a hangover effect in play here with the Hawks (and part of the reason for that is they’re coach, Mike Woodson – who has little clue what he’s doing on the court – will not know how to get his players refocused).
Fear the Dear indeed, folks. Bucks complete the upset tonight – and a double-digit win wouldn’t surprise me in the least!
Rays (-1½ runs)
The Rays are an absolute runaway freight train right now. With Thursday’s 11-1 rout of the Royals, they improved baseball’s best record to 17-5. And it’s not just the fact they’re playing .773 baseball; it’s that they’re annihilating every team put in front of them. Tampa has won five straight games by a total of 31 runs, and of its last 15 wins, 14 have been by multiple runs. Seriously, look at these final scores:
9-3, 5-1, 8-6, 9-1, 3-1, 7-1, 8-2, 12-0, 10-2, 9-3, 6-0, 8-6, 10-3 and 11-1.
Just one blowout after another. And there’s no reason to think it won’t continue tonight against Kansas City, which has lost three straight (for the first time this season) and seven of 10. And while Royals starter Brian Bannister has been solid in three of his first four starts, he has just one win to show for it, and that was Sunday’s 4-3 victory over Minnesota. Prior to that, the Royals – in part because of Bannister, in part because of their shitty-ass bullpen – had lost nine straight games behind Bannister. That includes six straight road losses.
Last year, Bannister faced the Rays three times, pitching one gem (seven scoreless innings in a 4-1 win) and two stinkers (12 runs, 10 earned, in 8 2/3 innings, losing both contests). In fact, going back to the start of the 2008 season, Bannister is 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA against Tampa Bay.
Meanwhile, the Rays are going with Jeff Niemann in this game, and since being forced to leave his first start after getting hit with a comebacker in the second inning, he’s been solid, allowing just eight runs in 20 2/3 innings (3.48 ERA), and the Rays won all three games by scores of 8-6, 8-2 and 9-3. In fact, they’re 5-1 in Niemann’s last six starts going back to the end of last season. Oh, and check out what he did in two starts as a rookie against the Royals last year, both at home: one run, six hits, one walk, 16 strikeouts in 17 innings, winning 9-0 and 7-1.
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 units Blue Jays
4 units LA Angels
4 units Padres
4 units Hawks -1.5
3 units Thunder -1
Craig Davis
50 Dime Winner on the UTAH Jazz at home over the Denver Nuggets. The Jazz are listed mainly as a 4 1/2-point home favorioe, but I do see some 5's out there. Make sure you shop for the best price!
25 Dime Winner on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS as the small home dog over the Atlanta Hawks. The Bucks are listed anywheere from 1 1/2 to 2 point dogs, so make sure you shop for the best price as well.
10 Dime Winner on the FLORIDA MARLINS -1 1/2 RUN LINE over the Washington Nationals with Olsen and Nolasco as the lisded pitchers. If either pitcher does not start, this play is VOID.
5 Dime Winner on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS over the Colorado Rockies with Cook and Zito as listed pitchers. If either pitcher does not start, this play is VOID.
UTAH Jazz - So far in this series, I've hit three out of my four selections, including two 50-dime winners and one, 100-dime winner. I was close to releasing a play on the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 at home, but I chickened out at the last second and it cost me an easy win. If there was ever a series in which it's going to be nearly impossible for the road team to win... it's this one. Denver has won two of three at home while Utah has held serve on their home court, winning both Games 3 and 4. The Jazz have dropped just 9 home games all season and with the series on the line tonight, I highly doubt Jerry Sloan will let them play sloppy because the last thing they want to do is go back to Denver for Game 7.
Everything I mentioned in my analysis from Game 3 and Game 4 (both winners on the Utah Jazz) still holds true. The Jazz dominate at home and have dropped just one contest with Denver there in the last 7 tries. They are not only winning games at home, they're winning by double digits (12 PPG). Denver's offense can't be stopped at home... that's clear. But when they go on the road it's another story. They average 8 PPG less on the road than they do at home, and in this series it's a 10 PPG difference. Utah, on the other hand, plays decent offense no matter where they go, but it's the defensive intensity they show at home that will be the difference tonight. In this series the Jazz have allowed nearly 10 PPG less on at home than on the road and that will ultimately decide tonight's game. If Utah plays the same kind of defense tonight that they played in Game 3 and Game 4, this is a no-brainer... they'll win by double digits.
The Jazz have been in every game of this series unlike Denver who was never really in Game 2 (despite the final score) and they weren't really in Game 3 or 4 either. Game 5 was probably the best game the Nuggets have played from beginning to end, but it took a 4th quarter push to finally run away with it. It's quite simple for Denver, really... they need to shoot 50% or better from the floor to even have a chance to win this game, let alone cover the number. There's a reason they got the 4-seed instead of the 2-seed... and that's the fact they REALLY struggled on the road to close out the year. I see no reason that doesn't continue tonight.
Vegas isn't stupid, either. They listed Utah as a 2-point favorite in both Games 3 and 4, and despite the opening line being -3 1/2, it's crept up to -5 1/2 and -6 in some places (they're begging people to play Denver). Utah is 28-13-2 ATS at home this year while Denver is just 15-23-5 ATS on the road (1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games). The Jazz are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss, and with the series on the line tonight, there's no way the Jazz let this one get away. Utah by 10.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS - Am I missing something, or does Vegas simply have this one dead wrong? What else do the Hawks have to do in order to get some respect at the window? After easily covering Games 3 and 4 at home, they go to Atlanta and steal one to take a 3-2 series lead with a chance to close it out at home. So they've covered three straight in this series and now they're a 2-point underdog at home? I dont' get it. Milwaukee hasn't been a favorite in any of the five games of this series, yet they lead the series by taking 3 of the first 5 games and again tonight we find them as a small pup. I don't care what Vegas thinks, the Hawks are a selfish bunch of "me" players who don't play with any team unity. Charles Barkley called them "Denver East" because they play a lot of one-on-one basketball with very little offensive consistency. If they aren't taking someone to the hole or hitting threes, this offense is a complete mess. Milwaukee, on the other hand, is playing sound defense for 48 minutes and they're still getting it done without Andrew Bogut.
Atlanta's body language after Game 5 was all I needed to see to know they just aren't ready for this series and have taken Milwaukee too lightly after dominating them in Games 1 and 2. Mike Bibby isn't dishing out assists and Josh Smith is playing soft, and unless that changes tonight (which I wouldn't bet on), they have absolutely no prayer of winning this game.The Bucks shoot a good percentage from the field, but it's even better at home, and they will win this game at the free throw line... first, by getting there and second by converting. Atlanta is just 1-5 ATS in their last six off a non-cover while Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 as a pup. Take the points as Milwaukee will win this SU.
FLORIDA MARLINS -1.5 - This one comes down to starting pitching, and Ricky Nolasco is clearly the play here. I could care less that the Nats are 12-10 to start the season or the fact they actually have a winning road record, this is nothing more than an early season mirage that will quickly be forgotten when the team is 20 games under .500 at the All Star Break. I admire what they've done to this point as they've actually made people some nice money as decided underdogs in almost all of their games. But tonight they run into a buzzsaw named Rick Nolasco that they just haven't been able to figure out. Nolasco is 7-1 in his career vs. Washington with a 3.85 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 9 career starts. Last season Nolasco faced the Nationals 3 times last season and, as you guessed, he was 3-0 with an ERA under 3. Washington's starter, Scott Olsen, actually faced off against Nolasco in two of those three games and, obviously, lost both of them (actually, he only got credit for one loss but the team lost both). He was 0-1 in three starts in 2009 vs. Florida but the team was 0-3 in those starts. Mismatch tonight, which is why the Vegas money line is so high and we're having to take the run line. No worries, Florida wins this by 3 or more.
SF GIANTS - I'm not sure why Vegas has so much love for Aaron Cook, but who am I to argue... especially since I'm on the Giants? Cook's season ERA is 5.01 and his record is 1-2, not to mention his career ERA vs. San Francisco is 4.87 and his W/L record in 20 starts is 7-9. Cook has been a completely different pitcher on the road this season, losing both of his road starts with an ERA near 10. Barry Zito, meanwhile, has found a second wind in his career as he's really settled back into a nice groove and is off to a nice start this year. Zito has allowed 1 or fewer ERs in three of his four starts so far and hasn't allowed more than 3 ERs in any game he's started in 2010. For his career vs. Colorado, Zito is 4-2 in 10 starts with a 1.98 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a .194 opponent's batting average against. The Giants really got a morale boost when they took 2 of 3 against Philly and 2 of 3 against St. Louis... two potential opponents in the post-season. They are 8-4 at home this year and this matchup is clearly in their favor tonight. Play the Giants to get an easy home win tonight.
ROYAL SPORTS
10* Atlanta Hawks
9* Lakers/Thunders Under
Tony George
GOY Tamba Bay -1.5
Dwayne Bryant
San Fransisco Giants
REDZONE SPORTS
3* Milwaukee/Atlanta Hawks Over
Off a tough few days we are bouncing back tonight in Wisconsin. The Milwaukee Bucks are a 60% Over machine at home and own a 49-38 straight up and 55-30-2 ats mark. The Mike Woodson lead Hawks must get out and run to win tonight on the road, Theses 2 have gone over 11-2-1 the last 14 times they have squared off. Let's roll tonight with Mil Bucks Branon Jennings who has been a dynamite offensive floorleader in this series and we also will look for a super game out of Atlanta Hawks All Star Joe Johnson. Power ratings have this total in the 194 to 196 range
Bob Balfe
Milwaukee Bucks +2
Seattle Mariners -137
Marc Lawrence
Lakers vs. Oklahoma City -2
When the Thunder hosts the Lakers in Game Six of this opening round playoff series tonight they will do so knowing they are in a terrific winning spot. For openers, Los Angeles is 0-14-1 ATS away as a favorite or dog of four or less points off a win this season in games in which it did not lose it's last game by four or more points against the spread when facing a .450 or greater foe. In addition, Oklahoma City is 10-0 ATS this season in games off a SU and ATS loss when facing an opponent off a win of five or more points. The clincher, though, comes from our database as it tells us to: Play On and No. 8 seed in the opening round of the playoffs with a winning record if they are off a SU and ATS playoff loss if they won 42 or fewer games last season. That's because these teams are 7-0 ATS in this role. Look for the Thunder to push this to a seventh game with a big win here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Oklahoma City.
Tony George
GOY Tamba Bay -1.5
Lets be realistic, Tampa beat the Royals last night by 10 runs. REALLY? Need I say more? Kansas Citys bullpen is simply deplorable beyond words, and with Bannister on the mound for KC, with a weak bullpen against a team batting .327 as a team their last 10 games against right handers, this one is another blowout. Niemann for Tampa toes the rubber and has under a 4 era ON THE YEAR AND A 1.11 whip HIS LAST 3 STARTS, ALL WINS. How does a poor hitting KC team provide run support? I will gladly lay 1.5 runs at -114 on the moneyline for EASY MONEY. Play 2.5 Units on Tampa Bay -1.5