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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, April 30,2010

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Alatex

Clev Under 9

Thunder

Bucks

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 3:32 pm
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DR BOB

Opinion
MILWAUKEE (+2) over Atlanta
My ratings favor Milwaukee by 2 points over the Hawks, so the line value is once again squarely in the Bucks' corner. However, Milwaukee does apply to a negative 10-25 ATS game 6 situation, but that situation isn't nearly as strong as the line value favoring the Bucks. I'll lean with Milwaukee as an underdog.

Opinion
OKLAHOMA CITY (pick) versus L.A. Lakers
Oklahoma City is 22-4 ATS this season after a game in which they lost straight up and to the spread, but the Thunder also apply to a negative 10-25 ATS game 6 situation. My ratings favor the Thunder by 1 1/2 points, so the line is fair. I'll lean slightly with Oklahoma City at -1 or better.

3 Star Selection
UTAH (-5 1/2) over Denver
The Jazz beat the Nuggets by double-digits in both games in Utah during this series and I expect another easy win tonight. Utah is now 30-13 ATS in all home games this season, continuing a long history of spread success in Salt Lake City, and the Jazz are 16-2 ATS this season at home after at least one night off when not favored by 8 points or more. Denver, meanwhile, is just 15-25-3 ATS on the road this season, including 10-25-2 ATS if the opponent has a win percentage of greater than .300. In addition to the team trends Utah also applies to a 44-9-3 ATS playoff situation and the Jazz are 22-8 ATS after a loss this season - including my 3-Star win in their game 2 victory at Denver. I'll take Utah in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -7.

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 3:34 pm
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KELSO

100 UNITS Utah Jazz

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 3:37 pm
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Larry Ness

GOM Cleveland Indians

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 3:37 pm
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James Patrick Sports

5* Atlanta/Milwaukee Over

5* LA Lakers/Okl City Under

3* Utah/Denver Over

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 3:42 pm
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Priority Sports Info

New York Yankees -235

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 3:42 pm
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Accupicks

3* SD Padres

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 3:43 pm
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King Creole

3* LAKERS/THUNDER OVER 194

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 3:46 pm
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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

6* Seattle -150

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:

Cliff Lee finally gets his first start of the year, and I expect him to do just enough for his team to win this contest.

Lee was 14-13 last season with a 3.22 ERA; that dropped to 2.85 when throwing in front of the home town crowd.

In the other dugout: Colby Lewis gets the call for the Rangers; Lewis has got out to a quick start, winning three of four to begin the year; that said I believe he suffers a letdown in this spot.

Bottom line: The M's have won back-to-back games over Kansas City after four consecutive losses; even without Lee, the Mariners rank among the AL leaders with a 3.37 ERA, helping to compensate for a meek offense.

I expect Lee to make an immediate impact and outduel his counterpart;

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 4:06 pm
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Lenny Del Genio

Utah -5

Denver extended the series by blowing out Utah on Wednesday night. However, the Jazz didn’t exert much effort. The Nuggets have been awful on the road getting bombed in Denver both times. The reason is that they don’t play any defense allowing the Jazz to average 112 points on their home floor. Utah is a great team to bet when playing at home. This season they are 28-13 ATS. Meanwhile Denver has been money burners on the road posting a 16-23 ATS mark. Will the Jazz come back strong after that road loss? No doubt here as they are 17-4 ATS this year off a road loss. For the Nuggets, they don’t play well after a 10 or more point win posting a 9-18 ATS record this season. Sloan will have this Jazz team ready tonight. Utah wins big and moves on! Play on Utah.

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 4:07 pm
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Evan Altemus

3 Units Utah -5

Utah has been able to control this series because of winning one game on Denver’s home floor and the play of star point guard Deron Williams. Williams has taken advantage of the older and slower Chauncey Billups. The Nuggets also miss their coach George Karl, who has been able to control the strong personalities on this team. I feel he will really be missed tonight, in a game that Denver has to bring a maximum effort to win. Like Atlanta, Denver is the more talented team than their opponent, but the Jazz are playing with more energy and cohesiveness. Utah has one of the strongest home court advantages in the NBA, and they know they must win this game to close out the series. Denver will likely win a Game 7 if the game heads back there because of their strong home court advantage. Sharp bettors really like Utah in this game, evident by the significant line movement. Also, oddsmakers like the Jazz because of the adjustment to the point spread they made from Games 3 and 4. Look for Utah to win this game decisively, as Denver will begin to give up when they know they won’t win this game.

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 4:07 pm
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Larry Ness

10* Thunder
9* Nuggets Under
8* Hawks

10* Indians
9* Giants

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 4:13 pm
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Ben Burns

10* Lakers Under
10* Hawks Under
9* Hawks
9* Nuggets

10* Indians

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 4:15 pm
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Power Play Wins

Utah Jazz -5

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 4:15 pm
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Kevin Francis Guaranteed Selections

SPECIAL EDITION NBA PLAYOFF TOTALS WINNER

Denver and Utah UNDER 215.5

 
Posted : April 30, 2010 4:16 pm
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