Sportsbetsnow
1 Unit Sacramento -1.5
1 Unit LA Clippers +2
MR EAST
NCAAB FRIDAY PLAY OF THE DAY
NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES @ PEPPERDINE WAVES
3 UNITS NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES +3
The Pepperdine Waves once a program rich with talent, has fallen on hard times. They managed just 7 wins all last season, and early indications are they will have a tough time doing much better this season. They have played 2 teams that aren't even div-1 programs, and beat Cal St. San Bernardino at home by just 2, and lost to California Baptist, ouch! They have yet to be posted as a favorite this season, and over the last few years they are just 3-10 ATS in the favorite role. Aggies have 6 losses, all to quality opponents, as they have taken care of the poor teams on their schedule, and I'll back New Mexico St. in this one.
Brandon Lang
10 DIME - LA CLIPPERS - Finally healthy, the Clippers are ready to make a move.
With Chris Kaman and Baron Davis playing together at full strength, I've always said this could be a dangerous ballclub.
They come off a flat-out rout of the Timberwolves 120-95 as a 1-point underdog, and now look to keep that momentum here against the Knicks.
New York comes in off a 4th quarter meltdown versus the Bulls on the road last night leading by 3 at the end of 3 only to get outscored 29-17 in the 4th for the 9 point loss.
Considering the new energy this Clipper team is playing with and the Knicks struggling last night, solid play here with the road dog that is rested and ready for the bright lights of the Garden.
10 DIME - CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE MATADORS -What was Bruiser Flint thinking dragging his Drexel team 3,000 miles from Philly to play Cal State Northridge?
I will tell you what he was thinking: Warm weather for my kids.
Well warm weather or not, this is a bad spot for Drexel as this Northridge team is playing very well as of late covering 4 of their last 5 with the non-cover being a 7 point loss at Denver catching 6 1/2.
Drexel has played 6 of their 11 games on the road so they are road tested, but they just don't have the offense to match this up tempo style of Northridge nor do they have the depth to keep up as well.
Contrast of styles as Drexel will want to slow it down while Cal State Northridge will want to speed it up and in this case I will back the hometeam who will be well rested, well acclimated with no jet lag to worry about.
Cal State Northridge is the play.
10 DIME- MONTANA STATE BOBCATS - Like the way this Brad Huse squad is building momentum for this squad this year.
They returned 4 starters from last year and including leading scorer Will Bynum and have already faced Nevada, Southern Miss, Oregon and Memphis.
That will bode well as they step down, way down to face this Cal Santa Barbara team at home in Bozeman.
The Gauchos also return 4 starters and they to are playing some pretty good basketball but they have not played near the schedule this Montana State team has.
I mean, Cal State University Los Angeles, Weber State, Loyola Marymount, Santa Clara and San Diego State.
Not exactly stepping up to get things going out of conference now are we?
I am going to roll with Montana State tonight with some good value at home and look for their early season tough schedule to pay off mightly tonight.
Playing Montana State
FREE SELECTION - ATLANTA HAWKS
RAS
CS Northridge
San Jose St
RATED PICKS
Long Beach St: +4 2 units
UC Irvine: -2 2 units
Pepperdine: -3 5 units
Atlanta Hawks: -6.5 2 units
Dallas Mavericks: -5 2 units
Golden State Warriors: -2 2 units
MTi's Sports
Rockets at Mavericks
Pick: Rockets +5
Analysis: The Mavs are off an easy 100-86 win over the Thunder. Nowitzki has 35 points and eleven boards, but he had more turnovers than assists. This is not a good sign for the Mavs chances here. Dallas is 0-9 ATS after a win in which Dirk had double-digit rebounds, but more turnovers than assists, failing to cover by an average of 11.2 ppg. In their last two, they lost to the Nets and Warriors as a favorite.
This is the third match-up between these two this season and the Mavs have won and covered both, shooting 55% and 65% from the field. The Mavs can be flat in this situation and, of course, the Rockets will be motivated to compete with a rival that has dominated them in the first two meetings of the season. Dallas is 0-7-1 ATS as a home favorite and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. The one time they faced the Rockets in this situation, they lost 113-93 – remember, they were a home favorite every time. AND, Houston is 5-0 ATS on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field, covering by an average of 16.7 ppg.
The Rockets are off a 111-101 loss to the Nuggets in which they turned the ball over TWENTY times and allowed Denver to shoot 58.3% from the three-point line. Houston was in a bad spot against the Nuggets, but here they should be more focused. The Rockets are 9-0 ATS (+7.0 ppg) as a dog after a double-digit loss in which they committed at least twenty turnovers. and 12-0-1 ATS as a rested road dog by at least 3 points after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.
More Specifically, Houston is 9-0 ATS (+7.7 ppg) after a loss on the road in which Chuck Hayes had more turnovers than assists and 5-0 ATS (+6.7 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Tracy McGrady had more turnovers than assists.
Finally, the Rockets are 20-1-1 ATS when they are off a loss in which their opponent attempted at least ten three-pointers and made more than half of them. Their lone ATS loss in this situation came back in the 2001-02 season. In their lone active date in this situation this season, the Rockets beat the Lakers 101-91 getting 9 in LA. Nice. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play as we expect an upset.
MTi’s FORECAST: Houston 98 DALLAS 94
Dave Malinsky
4* C.S.-NORTHRIDGE over DREXEL
There is a cavernous gap in focus between these teams for this setting, and with Drexel having some tactical and logistical disadvantages what they are projecting as a close game in the marketplace has a chance to break wide open. Being at home means much more for Bobby Braswell and his Matadors than the oddsmakers appraisal for tonight. This will be their only game in the Matadome in a span of five weeks, and for a team that has already logged 11,521 air miles it creates a most favorable environment. That is accentuated by their pressing and trapping tactics, with Braswell once again having a deep rotation (11 players logging double-figure minute counts). That style is not conducive to early road success, of course, which helps to buy us their lower power rating, but now they get the home fans behind them, and some of those road challenges (particularly Purdue and Washington) will have accelerated their development process. Look for a fresh and hungry team to take the court tonight, one that will attack relentlessly for the full 40 minutes. That is not Drexel basketball, of course. The Dragons play a physical and methodical style that is the embodiment of coach Bruiser Flint, and they rarely go up against an opponent that forces this kind of tempo. The best way to attack the Matador presses is to go over the top and take the ball to the basket but that is not the Drexel way, and a sluggish offense that has connected at only a 39.8 percent clip so far, including a horrid 62.1 at the free throw line, faces an uphill battle vs. this defensive pressure. And that is even if they brought their A game anyway. We do not expect to see a top level of efficiency from a team that has not played west of the Mississippi River since a game at Creighton in February of 2007, and they have not even traveled west of their own campus for a game this season. No one on the roster has ever played a game in the Pacific Time Zone, which makes the 10 PM tipoff on their body clocks an issue, and there is also the major distraction of a nationally televised game at Kentucky at Monday. For a team that harbors no at-large tourney considerations of any kind this result does not carry a lot of meaning, so do not be surprised if Flint experiments with some lineup combinations and treats it as more of an exhibition affair, something that Braswell will absolutely not do.
MTi Sports
5* Denver Nuggets
4.5* Houston Rockets
Power Play Wins
Golden State Warriors -3
Northcoast
Marquee
Villanova
Erin Rynning
20* Timberwolves +1.5
Over 210 Timberwolves
Over 209 Pacers
Under 197 Mavericks
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Dallas
4 Units Atlanta
3 Units CS Northridge
Teddy Covers
Hawks
Bucks
Kiki-Sports
3* GOW Nuggets -1
Dwayne Bryant
Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder
Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
The Thunder come into this one having lost three straight, but those losses came against Dallas, Denver, and Cleveland -- three pretty damn good teams. The Thunder should be pumped up for this game, with a three-game road trip up next against Houston, the Lakers, and Phoenix. I mentioned OKC has lost three straight. Two of those were at home. In the last one against Dallas, they lost by 14 as a 2-point dog, which means it was a double-digit ATS loss (lost to the spread by 12). It should be noted that OKC is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when playing off a double-digit ATS loss. Kevin Durant shot just 4-of-18 in the loss, as he finished with 12 points and four rebounds. Expect a strong bounce-back by Mr. Durant tonight.
On the flip side, Detroit is just 3-10 on the road and they're coming off back-to-back road losses at New Orleans and Houston. Rip Hamilton may miss this game with a hamstring problem. Ben Gordon may also miss this game with an ankle injury. These two met in Detroit on 10/30 and the Thunder pulled the upset, 91-83. And Detroit did have Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince for that matchup.
The Thunder are 5-1 ATS this season as a home favorite of four points or more. This is OKC's best shot at a win for a while with that brutal three-game road trip looming. I expect a very strong effort from the Thunder against a banged-up Detroit team that just doesn't get the job done on the road. Take Oklahoma City.