Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Fairfield +1
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Fairfield:
Edwin Ubiles scored 18 points to lead Siena to a 69-67 win over Fairfield on Monday night.
A 6-0 run to end the first half gave the Saints a 36-28 lead at halftime. Fairfield cut the lead to one twice in the second half, but was never able to take the lead. The Stags trailed by five points with 6 seconds left, and Derek Needham hit a 3-pointer with 4 seconds remaining for the final score; I expect a rebound tonight.
Keep in mind that Fairfield is 4-2 ATS its last six overall and 7-2 ATS its last nine on the road.
On the other side of the court: Ryan Thompson scored 31 points and Rider defeated Niagara 70-62 on Monday night.
The Broncs (14-12, 7-7 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference) trailed 37-23 at halftime after shooting 26.7 percent in the first half (8 of 30). However, Rider outscored the Purple Eagles 47-25 in the second half after a 56.7 percent effort from the field after halftime (17 of 30); I expect a letdown tonight.
It has to be pointed out that Rider is in fact a poor 1-6 ATS its last seven in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: Look for FAIRFIELD to improve to 3-1 ATS revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and for Rider to fall to 5-8 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record!
6* Fairfield
Marc Lawrence
Pennsylvania +17
An Ivy League showdown tips off in the Quaker City when Pennsylvania hosts Cornell at the Palestra. Both teams enter tonight's fray off 14-point decisions, Cornell off a 14-point win home win over Brown; Penn off a 14-pont road loss at Harvard. That sets the table for this game as the Big Red are 0-10-2 ATS in this series when playing off a win. While Cornell is the class of the Ivy at 41-13 since the start of the 2008 season, they are only 10-10 straight up as a visitor. On the flip side, Penn is 33-5 SU and 24-14 ATS at home in league play when playing with three or more days of rest, including a super 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS when hosting a .525 or great opponent. With Cornell off its 20th win of the campaign, look for the Quakers to come with their best effort of the season here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Pennsylvania.
Ron Raymond
Nashville +155
Devils are pretty banged up and they aren’t getting the goaltending they are use too at this point of the season. When was the last time the Devils gave up over 3 goals a game? When NASHVILLE Played as a Underdog - During Last 3 Years - With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G; the Preds are 29-18 SU in this cycle. Take Nashville.
Tony George
Cornell -16.5
Penn is just a deplorable team, they got beat by Duke by 69 points, which is frightening, even for a bad team. Cornell is ranked 22nd in the USA, and are playing a team who has not won at home all year, and have no offense and play little defense. No t a good combo against a team averaging almost 80 ppg, while Penn is averaging 57 ppg their last 5..Oh My. Cornell can name the score. They have not scored less than 71 in any game since January 8th, and Penn is injury riddled in their frontcourt as well. Tough to lay 16+ on the road in most cases, not here. Cornell 9-2 ATS on the road this year and this is a team who only lost to Kansas by 6 points on the road, I watched them play in person, they are a solid team who gave KU all they wanted. They just broke into the top 25 and are focused to stay there, even against a bad team. Play 1 Unit on Cornell.
Rocketman
Pennsylvania +16.5
Cornell has the best team in the Ivy League this year there is no doubt about that. They are beating opponents by an average of 13 points per game overall which is within our number here. In their road games this year, they are beating opponents by only 6 points per game which is within our number here. This could be another case of looking ahead to their Saturday game where they will have to travel to Princeton. Princeton is currently 2nd in the conference and also has an undefeated record. Cornell could be caught looking ahead and past this 3-15 Penn team. Big Red are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. We'll play Penn for 3 units tonight!
Lenny Del Genio
West Virginia -2.5
Pitt has major revenge for a 19-point loss in Morgantown nine days ago that saw the WVU faithful pepper the court with debris in a wild scene that caused a stoppage in the game. Too bad for the Panthers that they won't get said revenge. Jamie Dixon's team was the surprise of the Big East early on, winning its first five games in league play, including three on the road over Syracuse, Cincinnati and UConn. However, they've struggled ever since, losing four of six. The wins came against St. Johns and Seton Hall, neither of whom will be in the NCAA Tournament last month. Rather than the revenge angle, we're more interested that WVU comes in off a loss, 82-75 to Villanova, which snapped a six-game win streak. Off their previous three losses, the Moutaineers are 2-1 ATS winning by an average of 20.3 points per game. Pitt simply does not matchup well vs. WVU. They were outrebounded by 14 in the prior matchup and held to a season low 30.2% and made only six field goals after halftime. Keep an eye on the Mountaineers 6'9", 265 lb Turkish C Deniz Klici, who is Bob Huggins latest weapon having only come on in the last three games. He debuted, coincidentally enough, in the Pitt game making 4 of 4 shots in just seven minutes. No one really knows about this guy and he can make a big impact down the stretch. West Virginia is our ESPN Backyard Brawl Winner.
The Duke's Sports
Pittsburgh (+3) for 2 Units
West Virginia is getting too much respect from the betting public. The Mounties opened as 1 1/2 point favorites and were immediately bid up to a trey. Sure, the Mountaineers buried Pittsburgh nine days ago in a wild melee at WV, and we know about Huggins' successful history as a coach coming off losses; however, Dixon,too, instills a blue collar toughness in his team and the Panthers should exact revenge here after all, they did successfully avenge Seton Hall on this very home floor; moreover, they're capable of hanging with the elite in the Big East as demonstrated at the Carrier Dome on January 2nd with a win over Syracuse. Finally, let us not forget that WV is a mere 1-5 SU at Petersen, and the Mounties are just 1-8 ATS as a small road favorite. We'll grab the field goal here with the Panthers.
BRYAN LEONARD
Fairfield at Rider
Pick: Fairfield PK
The Stags are looking for a bit of revenge here after dropping the earlier meeting at home 88-80. The Broncos completely outplayed Fairfield in that game shooting 54% from the field and attempting 15 more free throws. The Broncs dominated from the 3 point area shooting 53% in the road victory. That defeat makes four straight losses in this series for the Stags but we expect that fact to change after tonight's match-up. Fairfield has the much more efficient offense and they should dominate the Broncs on the boards. Despite coming in off a two point loss at Siena that had to be a positive effort for Ed Cooley's crew. Rider had been dominating in this building the past two years but this season hasn't been the same. They are just 6-4 here this year with losses to the likes of Loyola Maryland, St Peter's and LaSalle. Fairfield is 10-2 at home this season with the only losses coming to Siena and Rider. They already easily cashed in a revenge spot against the Saints, we expect another superior effort here.
WUNDERDOG
3 Units Vancouver ML
3 Units Vancouver at Columbus Under 5.5
3 Units Phoenix at Colorado Over 5
Craig Davis
20 Dime – CORNELL
20 Dime – SIENA
20 Dime – PITT
CORNELL - Strange but true, Cornell continues to receive more hype than any team from the Ivy League since the Princeton and their patented 50-48 type games. This year's version of the Big Red, however, is much different than those Princeton teams because not only can they play great defense... they can score. 74 points in their last game; 90 before that; 86 before that. 77 PPG for the season and 75 per game on the road is going to spell trouble for the Quakers tonight.
Cornell is incredibly deep, having the best bench in the Ivy League... a bench that would likely replace a few current starting fives in the conference... they're THAT good. Case in point: the Big Red found themselves in a rare situation in their last home game, tied at 43 in the second half with an obviously inferior Brown team. HC Steve Donahue sent in five new players against Brown's starters and in a four-minute span outscored Brown 10-4 and they cruised to victory. Four of their reserves average 12 or more minutes per game while still two others average seven or more minutes. As other conference teams get tired, Cornell gets going.
And the scary thing is... Cornell has been winning recently without shooting the three-ball really well (just 7 of their last 25). If they come anywhere close to their 42% average from downtown tonight, Penn could lose by 30. The Quakers haven't won a single home game all season and they shoot just 39% as a team there. If Penn even wants a remote chance to keep this one close tonight, they must find some production from anyone NOT named Zack Rosen. Most Penn opponents have had success smothering him every time he touches the ball, and given the Quakers lack of depth on the roster, if Rosen doesn't score this team usually loses by a large margin. Cornell has won every single game in conference play by 14 points or more and has won five of six conference games by 19 or more. Any doubts Penn will be the 7th conference opponent to suffer this fate? Not from this capper. Cornell rolls.
SIENA - It still baffles me (and even other coaches in the MAAC) how the Saints aren't getting any respect in the National Polls. With absolutely no disrespect to Cornell, how can the Big Red be ranked and not the Saints? Both teams have played very tough non-conference schedules and both are dominating conference play. The difference, to me, might be the fact I watched this Siena team take Ohio State to overtime in last year's Big Dance and eventually pull off the upset. It's not that I don't think Cornell shouldn't be ranked... it's just that I think Siena clearly has a case to be ranked in the top 25, yet they actually fell a few spots in the latest poll (to 35th). Trust me... the coaches and players noticed and they weren't too happy about it. All they can do now is go out and take care of business.
Some of you might be worried that this is a "trap" line as Siena should clearly be favored by more than four points. I mean, they have a four-game lead in conference play right now and it's nearly impossible for them not to win it. But that's the same reasoning I used in my Drake selection Wednesday night... I felt Northern Iowa didn't really care and wouldn't give 100% effort that night because of their big conference lead. Guess what... I was right, but I was also wrong. I don't think Northern Iowa put forth its best effort yet they were still able to win by 9, easily covering the 4-point number. Tonight, I feel Siena is in the same boat. Vegas has adjusted the line to make people buy into that same argument, but I'm taking the better team with better players laying just a few points. Siena hasn't lost a game in conference and it's not going to suffer its first loss to a very average (at best) Niagara team tonight, regardless of where its being played.
PITTSBURGH - I remember backing West Virginia last year in this very same scenario and cashing in big time. A Big East matchup on a Friday night (which is rare in and of itself), the home team was the lesser-ranked of the two teams (I think Villanova was the opponent last year), yet the road team clearly didn't want to be there on a Friday night and got walloped. As good as West Virginia is, I just don't trust them on the road and I think the line is perfect for us Pitt backers tonight.
Let's also not forget this is a HUGE revenge game for the Panthers as they were just absolutely destroyed, 70-51, in Morgantown back in early February. Don't think they've forgotten that beating they took that night either, because since then Pitt has reeled off two big wins... 83-58 over Seton Hall and 77-53 over Robert Morris. Granted, those aren't two of the better opponents they're going to see, but it's a statement. It's a statement that they aren't going to lay down and get trampled on by the rest of the Big East. Jamie Dixon simply won't allow his kids to play dead, and getting a SU win tonight would go a long way in getting the attention of the rest of the Big East.
Remember, this is also a rivalry game (the Backyard Brawl). Oh sure, it might not get the same attention as Duke/Carolina or Kentucky/Louisville, but these two schools just don't like each other. The Mounties haven't beaten Pitt twice in a season since 2005 and they haven't covered a Friday night game in their last four tries. Pitt has covered 9 of their last 13 games overall (with one push) and have covered 10 of their last 15 games (with two pushes) against teams with winning records. The Friday night crowd in Pittsburgh is going to be "waspy" tonight, just itching to go nuts for their Panthers. I'm calling for a SU Pittsburgh win tonight.
ATS LOCK CLUB
3 Units Pittsburgh
RAS
Passing Friday
Eric Degarde
1* West Virginia -2.5
1* Rider Over 140.5