DEREK MANCINI
30 Dime Bobcats
MTi Sports
Cavs at Bobcats
Pick: Over 191
The addition of Antawn Jamison should make the Cavs a more offensive team and we’ll take the over in his debut.
The fact that the Cavs went to OT last night against the Nuggets and lost should also lead to a more offensive game. Cleveland is 6-0 OU when they allowed at least ten points more than their season-to-date average for two straight games, 4-0 OU (+13.5 ppg) as a road favorite with no rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field and 6-0 OU (+9.1 ppg) as a favorite off a loss that broke at least a five-game winning streak. It is also worth mentioning that Cleveland is 7-0 OU after playing the Nuggets, going over by an average of 16.1 ppg.
Charlotte is off a terrible 103-94 loss to the Nets as a big home favorite. New Jersey shot 51.9% from the field and pulled the upset despite a team-leading 21 points from Gerald Wallace on 7-of-14 shooting. This strongly points to the OVER here. The Bobcats are 7-0 OU (+11.0 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Gerald Wallace was the Bobcats' high scorer and 9-0 OU as a home dog with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which they allowed at least 50% from the field, eclipsing the total by an average of an unbelievable 23.3 ppg.
This is a revenge game for Cleveland, as the Bobcats upset them in Cleveland in early January. This is relevant because the Cavaliers are 4-0 OU (+23.4 ppg) as a road favorite when seeking revenge for a loss in which Mo Williams did not play and 7-0 OU (17.7 ppg) on the road when seeking revenge for a home loss in which Lebron James took more than 20 shots.
Let’s go OVER this relatively low number.
MTi’s FORECAST: CHARLOTTE 106 Cleveland 102
MR EAST
NCAAB FRIDAY BRACKET BUSTER DELUXE
WILLIAM & MARY @ IONA GAELS
3 UNITS: WILLIAM & MARY +4
The William&Mary Tribe has one of their best teams in years, and will take on the Iona Gaels in a bracket buster game. The Tribe has won and covered 4 straight games. They have lost just 7 times on the season, and take note, as they have lost 4 of the 7 games by 3 points or less, so only 3 teams all season have beaten this team by more than 3. The Tribe is at their best in the dog role having gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 posted as a dog of 6.5 or less. Gaels have struggled of late, failing to cover their last 4, and 5 of their last 6, and stand at just 1-6 ATS at home vs a team with a winning record. William & Mary get the call here.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Dallas +6
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the Mavericks
New acquisition, Caron Butler, has excelled this season against Orlando (37-18), averaging 27.0 points in two wins for Washington. He scored 31 points and hit a 19-foot jumper with 0.5 seconds left to cap a rally from 21 down in a 92-91 win Feb. 10 in his last visit to Orlando.
The Mavericks are looking for Brendan Haywood to help on the defensive end with starting center Erick Dampier out indefinitely after undergoing finger surgery Wednesday. Dallas used strong defense against the league’s highest-scoring team to win 107-97 at home over Phoenix on Wednesday; I expect this team to build off that victory.
On the other side of the court: Orlando opened a three-game homestand with a 116-91 rout of Detroit on Wednesday. Howard had 33 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocks in the Magic’s eighth win in 10 games.
However, I believe Orlando will be caught "looking ahead" to its next game vs. the Cavaliers on Sunday.
Keep in mind that Orlando is 9-13 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record.
Bottom line: The Mavs have won five of six against the Magic, taking three straight in Orlando. Nowitzki is averaging 26.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists in those games for Dallas, which is trying to avoid its first three-game road slide; look for DALLAS to improve to 17-13 ATS on the road this season and for Orlando to drop to 7-9 ATS in non-conference games!
8* Mavericks
Ron Raymond
San Antonio/Philadelphia Under 192
When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Favorite - with 1 day off - Vs Atlantic opponent - Coming off a Win over Eastern Central opponent - Allowed 90 or less points AGAINST in their last game; the UNDER is 11-5-0 for the Road Fave (SA) in this spot. Take the UNDER.
Opposite Action Plays
Wizards +5.5
Marc Lawrence
Portland -3.5
The ‘Three Amigos’ are starting to show their age and we’re not confident that they can muster enough energy, let alone focus, tonight in the Rose Garden after last night’s revenge showdown with the Lakers in the Staples Center. Their 1-6 ATS mark on the road after battling the Lakers already shows some disinterest and this third road game in four nights figures to find the veteran visitors arriving on fumes. You can expect no such lack of effort from the Trailblazers as they will be looking to avenge a 98-95 loss in Beantown less than a month ago. With Portland 16-6 ATS as pick or home dogs with same-season revenge, we’re squarely in the hosts’ corner as we expect them to run circles around the weary Celtics tonight in the Great Northwest. Play On: Portland.
Tony George
San Antonio -3.5
Looks like a set up line here, but looking at the injury issues for Philly, especially in the backcourt, and Tony Parker playing well and back in the lineup for the Spurs, I like them on the road tonight. They have been on a long stretch of road games, I look for them to expose a bad Philly team with 9 wins at home all year. The Spurs playing MUCH better defense and defend the perimeter well. Too much for Philly. Play 1 Unit on San Antonio.
Rocketman
Miami +6.5
Miami is 22-10 ATS last 3 years after 3 or more consecutive unders. Miami has won 4 games in a row heading into tonight. Memphis has lost 5 of their last 6 games overall. Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. We'll play Miami for 3 units tonight!
Craig Davis
20 Dime – ODU-Northern Iowa UNDER
20 Dime – BOBCATS
20 Dime – HORNETS
ODU/NORTHERN IOWA UNDER - Vegas is trying to play a trick on the general public, listing a total as small as I can remember in a long time. This total tells me two things. First, it tells me Vegas knows this is going to be a defensive battle, with every possession having more meaning than the last. Second, anytime Vegas posts a total this low, they are just begging you to take the OVER. The general public loves to bet favorites and overs, and that's what they are hoping we all do in this one. I'm sorry, but I'm not buying it. Maybe Northern Iowa covers, maybe they don't, but if they do it's going to be because they hold Old Dominion in the 40s. That's not my concern. My concern is that neither team gets up into the high 50s or we might have to sweat this. I still love the UNDER, but that's why it's only a 20-dimer as opposed to a 40- or 50-dimer... because it's likely to come down to the last few minutes. You can't expect a total to be this low and not have to sweat it out. Honestly, the only way I see this thing going over is if there are an inordinate amount of fouls OR we get overtime. In eight of their last 10 games, ODU has held their opponents to 55 points or less, and since Northern Iowa doesn't quite score like some of the teams the Monarchs have played recently, I don't think there's any question the Panthers stay below 55. Let's also remember ODU held Georgetown to just 57 points on the road a few months back. These guys play "D", and Northern Iowa is going to have to earn every point they score. Same goes for Northern Iowa... they pride themselves on their defense, holding six of their last eight opponents to 56 points or less. I don't usually like backing an UNDER when every trend in the book says this game is going under, but I'll take my chances. Expect both teams to score in the low 50s which should keep this game around 110.
BOBCATS - Again, I'm going against the general public and what Vegas is begging us to do. Think about it... the Cavs just played the toughest game they've played in quite some time last night... an OT loss vs. Denver... and now they have to go on the road to play a very athletic, very angry Charlotte team who should be completely rested. The general public expects bettors to just jump all over the Cavs, assuming they are ticked off losing last night's game to the point they come in tonight and just absolutely demolish Charlotte. Sorry, but I don't believe that's happening. I'm much more comfortable backing a team playing at home (where they are 19-7) than a team coming in off the type of game the Cavs just played. If this line were upwards of 7 or 8, I might be scared off it a little as Vegas would then be begging you to take the Bobcats. Might be a little fishy. But listing this number around 4 1/2 is telling me they are begging us to play Cleveland, and I just can't bite. Charlotte has already beaten the Cavs twice this year, and it's starting to remind me of the way the Wizards played the Cavs last year. Remember, for whatever reason, even though the Cavs were dominating everyone, they just couldn't seem to be able to figure out the Wizards. I think this year's Bobcats are last year's Wizards. Yes, Cleveland did win the first matchup of these two teams back on October 31st, but even then the Bobcats covered the number. Since then Charlotte has won and covered both of the other meetings, winning by an average of 5 PPG and easily covering both numbers. I think it's safe to say the Bobcats were looking past the Nets in their last game (the first since the All Star break), and now we get to see if it was actually worth looking past them. If they get the SU win tonight, all will be forgiven. If they don't, Larry Brown will be criticized even more for not having his guys ready vs. New Jersey. This one comes down to the wire, and I like the Bobcats to actually win this thing SU.
HORNETS - Has anyone noticed that the loss of Chris Paul isn't actually hurting this Hornets team as much as we first thought. Oh sure, at first it was tough to adjust, but a young man by the name of Darren Collison has really stepped up over the last four games and has made the New Orleans faithful forget (at least somewhat) about Paul. Collison has scored 24 or more points in each of his last four, dished out 9 assists in three of his last four, and has grabbed at least three boards in the last four. Collison has filled in nicely, and it hasn't been against crappy competition either. Boston, Utah, Orlando and Charlotte are the opponents in which Collison decided to "start playing". With Collison playing this well, it has only made those around him better. Peja Stojakovic is starting to score more and Emeka Okafor doesn't have to worry about scoring as much now, so he's able to stay inside, grab boards and block shots. As much as I like Indiana, I just don't think they have the horses to compete for 48 minutes, espeically on the road where they have won just 6 games all season. New Orleans should start strong, and I expect them to finish strong. I think they win this thing by at least 8 points tonight.
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket Mavericks
Bobcats
Wizards
Alatex
15* Old Dom +3
Erin Rynning
20* Playmaker: New Orleans Over 205
Charlotte +4.5
Portland Under 186.5
Lenny Del Genio
25* Atlanta/Phoenix Over 212
10* Cleveland/Charlotte Under 191.5
Tim Trushel
20* Portland
Wash Under