Ben Burns
10* Top Central Div. Total - Pacers / Pistons Over 199
9* Personal Favorite - Atlanta Hawks -7
No * yet - Sacramento Kings +3.5
Tony Taylor
3* Knicks/Bucks Over 200.5
3* Mavs/Twolves Over 206
Rex Rodgers
3* New Jersey Devils -1.5 +150
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
5* St. Peters +5.5
3* Pacers -4
3* Rider -5
JEFF BENTON
20 Dime: HAWKS
10 Dime: TIMBERWOLVES
Hawks
Time to fade the Bulls, and it’s easy to see why.
After ending a tough seven-game Western Conference road trip with five straight upset victories, Chicago came home and lost to the Clippers 90-82 on Tuesday. Then the Bulls went to Philadelphia 24 hours later and suffered a gut-wrenching 106-103 overtime loss to the Sixers. Now it’s on to Atlanta, making this Chicago’s ninth roadie in its last 10 games going back to Jan. 18.
If that’s not rough enough, Chicago will be without one of its most important players, as center and leading rebounder Joakim Noah will miss this game with a foot injury. That’s a real bad break, considering one of the Hawks’ best players is center Al Horford (who played with Noah at Florida). Horford averages 13.4 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, and he’s coming off a double-double in Wednesday’s game against the Clippers (16 points, 10 rebounds).
Atlanta rallied to win that contest against L.A. 103-97, but failed to cover as a 9½-point favorite. That was the Hawks’ third straight non-cover – just the second time this season that the league’s #2 pointspread team has dropped three straight ATS decisions (it hasn’t lost four in a row against the number all season). Still, Atlanta is 20-5 SU and 17-8 ATS on its home court this season. One of those wins and covers came against Chicago on Dec. 9 – and what a destruction it was, as the Hawks rolled 118-83 as a 10½-point chalk. And think about this: Atlanta won that game by 35 points despite the fact Noah (11 rebounds) neutralized Horford (who finished with eight points and five rebounds in 24 minutes).
True, Chicago got a little payback 10 days later at home, going overtime for a 101-98 win over Atlanta. But all that did was snap a five-game SU and four-game ATS losing skid to the Hawks. And it doesn’t change the fact that the Bulls have lost four in a row in Atlanta, including three losses by 35, 12 and 21 points!
Then again, the Bulls have struggled against a lot of teams from Atlanta’s Southeast Division, failing to cash in 21 of their last 29 against the Hawks, Magic, Heat, Wizards and Bobcats. On the other hand, the Hawks are on ATS upticks of 19-8 as a home favorite, 9-3 against teams with a losing record, 7-2 after getting a day off and 10-4 after a non-cover.
Bottom line: The Hawks are the vastly superior team, and they’ve been dominant at home all year. And on top of that, this situation clearly favors Atlanta, which is playing its second straight home game while the Bulls are playing their third game in a different city in the last four days. In fact, check out the Bulls’ itinerary over their last 13 games: Chicago (vs. Detroit) to Boston back to Chicago (vs. Washington) then to the West Coast for seven straight road games, then home to Chicago (vs. the Clippers) then to Philadelphia and now to Atlanta.
In a word – BRUTAL! Throw in Noah’s absence, and this one’s a no-brainer, as I actually wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Bulls (who have a home game against Dwyane Wade and the Heat tomorrow night!) throw in the towel by the midpoint of the second half.
Timberwolves
How in the hell can the Dallas Mavericks be laying double digits again at home? When will the oddsmakers learn their lesson?
Seriously, guys, this play shouldn’t surprise you in the least, as I went against Dallas twice last week when it was a home favorite and cashed both times (including Saturday, when the Blazers won outright as an 8½-point pup). And I’m still kicking myself for not playing the Warriors on Wednesday night, when Golden State went to Dallas and lost 110-101 but covered as a 12-point underdog. With that result Wednesday, the Mavericks are now – are you ready for this? – 1-17 ATS in their last 18 home games.
The one cover? A seven-point win over the Cavaliers as a 3½-point home UNDERDOG! In the other 17 games, Dallas was favored … and didn’t ONCE bring home the cash! Take away that game against the Cavaliers, and you have to go back to Nov. 18 for the last time the Mavs covered at home (and that was a 99-94 overtime win over San Antonio as a three-point pup). The last time they won a home game by more than seven points? Go back another eight days to Nov. 10!
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “Yeah, but Minnesota is AWFUL.” I can’t really argue that point. But at least the TWolves are coming into Dallas with confidence, having posted by far their most dominating victories of the season – and in back-to-back fashion, crushing the Clippers by 14 points last Friday followed by Sunday’s 19-point rout of the Knicks. With those two wins and covers, Minnesota is now 8-5 ATS in its last 13 games.
Finally, two points to make about this rivalry: The home team has owned it from a pointspread persective (21-7 ATS last 28 meetings), and the TWolves have walked away with the money six straight times they’ve played in Big D!
Simply put, until the Mavericks – who have failed to cover in 20 of their last 28 overall, including the last five in a row – prove they can put away a team at home with a convincing win, I’ll keep betting against them.
MR EAST
3 Units Penn / Dartmouth Under 119
RAS
Rider -5
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Phoenix -3
3 Units Memphis -5
David Malinsky
4* SAINT PETER'S over FAIRFIELD
No matter what the level of play is in college basketball defense still lacks sex appeal in the marketplace. That is how a run like the current 6-1 Saint Peters surge gets missed, and why we get to take a line this high in a game in which the teams are tied in the conference standings (8-4) there is a vast chasm between the quality of defense being played.
The Peacocks have ratcheted their defense up to an extremely high level in this recent surge, and through 12 Metro Atlantic games are allowing just 36.7 from the field and 31.3 beyond the arc. Fairfield How about 44.3 and 37.6 in those same categories, with an attached. And these numbers are showing up in the pointspread categories that we would expect Saint Peters is the epitome of a tough out as a road underdog, with a 5-1 ATS conference mark that includes four outright wins, while the Stags are rarely putting anyone away, going 0-6 ATS as a home favorite this season, and only beating lowly Marist by more than six points in conference action.
But now that comes into play Ed Cooley is running low on numbers. When his Fairfield team won 75-68 at Saint Peters back on December 6th he got 31 points and 20 rebounds in 66 floor minutes from Greg Nero, Yorel Hawkins and Lyndon Jordan. They are all gone now. That turned out to be Neros only conference appearance of the season, and the defense has broken down badly in the two games played without Jordan, allowing Loyola-Maryland and Rider to both shoot over 50 percent. Now the loss of Hawkins, and his 14.6 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, becomes the biggest blow of all. Jordan had started all 10 conference games before going down and Hawkins all 12, and now the pieces to the puzzle become awfully limited. They are hard-pressed to merely win this game, and with that savvy Peacock back-court of JRs Wesley Jenkins and Nick Leon already at 149 career starts leading the way, a win by the road team should not be classified as an upset.
Joe D'Amico
Bucks at Knicks
Pick: Bucks +3
The Buck's are the hottest team in the NBA against the number. They have covered 8 of their L9, including 4 of their L5 on the road. Milwaukee has already disposed of New York 102-87 back in November. While NY has an edge on the offensive side of the ball, the defensive edge goes to Milwaukee. New York is just horrible. They can't seem to string together solid performances. They have lost 7 of their L10 both SU and ATS. The 'dog is 6-2 ATs their L8 meetings and the road team is 5-2 ATS their L7. The Buck's are 5-2 ATS their L7 in NY. Miwaukee is also 8-0 ATS their L8 vs. the NBA Atlantic, 4-1 ATS their L5 as a 'dog, and 4-1 ATS their L5 games played on 2 days rest. New York is 2-5 ATS their L7, 1-5 ATS their L6 as a favorite of .5-4.5 points, and 0-4 ATS their L4 following a ATS win. Milwaukee covers.
Dwayne Bryant
Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers
Bet: Detroit Pistons +3.5
Several reasons why I like Detroit in this spot tonight. First, we have the revenge angle. Indiana went into Detroit two weeks ago and upset the Pistons, 105-93. Secondly, we have Indiana coming off an emotional revenge win at home against Toronto, 130-115. That was the second game of a home-and-home series, and Toronto had won the first meeting by 15. So Indiana was plenty motivated coming back home, and they shot 52.4% in the revenge win. It's only natural to expect a letdown in this one, especially with another revenge game tomorrow night against the surging Bucks. A similar scenario played out less than two weeks ago. Indiana lost the 76ers by 10, beat them by 11 just two days later (and also shot over 50%), and then laid an egg at home against the Lakers (lost by 22). Now I realize the Pistons are not in the class of the Lakers, but we also don't need a 22-point win tonight.
Bottom line: Detroit is finally healthy, and Indiana is in a solid letdown spot. The Pacers are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the points with Detroit.
WUNDERDOG
3 Units Chicago Blackhawks Under 5.5
Tim Trushel
Chicago Bulls
BRANDON LANG
10 DIME - INDIANA PACERS
As if things aren't hard enough in Michigan, let's add the poor play of the Pistons into the mix.
You know things are bad when you are struggling to beat the worst team in the NBA as Detroit did their last time out.
Now they square back up with a Pacers team that rolled into Motown back on January 22nd and took care of business 105-93 as a 3 1/2 point dog.
Since that loss, Detroit went on to lose their next 4 at home to Portland, Memphis, Miami by 27 and Orlando by 5.
All told, just 2-6 ATS last 8 and now step back up to face an Indiana team they are 0-5 ATS last 5 meetings.
I like the way the Pacers are playing right now.
Since hammering the Pistons by double digits they split with Philly, lost to the 2 best teams in the NBA in Cleveland and the Lakers and split with the Raptors.
However, in beating the Raptors last game out they put up a 130 spot at home which tells me their offense is coming around.
The Pacers are just one of those teams the Pistons don't match up with and I will back the Pacers to go to 6-0 ATS last 6 versus Detroit.
FREE PICK - MILWAUKEE BUCKS
WUNDERDOG
3 Units Chicago Blackhawks Under 5.5
3 Units Detroit Over
3 Units Houston
5 Units Sacramento
2 Units St Pete's
3 Units Idaho State
3 Units Sacramento State