MR EAST
NCAAB FRIDAY PLAY OF THE DAY
SACRAMENTO ST. @ N. COLORADO
3 UNITS: SACRAMENTO ST. +17.5
Northern Colorado has gotten noticed with their 16-4 start, which includes 7-0 at home. Sacramento St. has been a losing team for a longtime in the Big Sky, but have risen up this season to spring a few surprises on the road. They went to Oregon St. and won outright as a 21 point dog, and also have a road dog win at 9.5, and missed by a single point at Montana as a double-digit dog. The Hornets are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 taking 10+. Margins getting slimmer for the Bears as they have not won a game in their last 8 by more than 15 points, and this one is just set way too high. I'll go with Sacramento St. in this one.
Sportsbetsnow
1 Unit Philly +3
Jeff Benton
15 DIME: HEAT
5 DIME: HAWKS
Heat
I can’t excuse Miami’s horrific effort in Wednesday’s 39-point road loss at Charlotte, but it was just one bad game (against a rapidly improving team, I might add). And it came one night after the Heat destroyed the Pacers by 30 points at home. There are several reasons to believe Miami is poised for a big bounce-back effort tonight in D.C., the main one being pride. You think an ultra-competitive guy like Dwyane Wade doesn’t want to make amends – and immediately – for that stink bomb against the Bobcats? You think Wade won’t inspire his teammates to come with max effort tonight after they made just 28.9 percent of their shots, missed 21 of 23 three-point tries, missed 12 of 31 free-throw attempts and got outrebounded 37-22?
As it is, because Wednesday’s game got out of hand so quickly, no Miami player logged more than Wade’s 31½ minutes (in fact, Wade was the only one to play more than 28 minutes). That means the Heat will come into this contest with very fresh legs, and that’s a HUGE deal because this is Miami’s eighth road game in its last nine contests (and its ninth straight game played in a different city). Despite the fact the NBA schedule-makers have royally screwed them over, the Heat have still managed to split their last eight games both SU and ATS, and that includes a couple of solid road wins (at Phoenix and at Houston), plus blowout victories over the Warriors (115-102 on the road) and Pacers (113-83 at home).
Tonight, the Heat matchup against a Washington squad that – admittedly – has been playing better since the Gilbert Arenas fun fiasco. The Wizards have cashed in their last four games, going 2-2 SU and ATS (the two losses – to the Bulls on the road and Mavs at home – were by a total of three points). Thing is, a few recent solid showings doesn’t make up for an otherwise miserable seasons. The Wizards are still just 7-17 SU in their last 24 games, and prior to the recent 4-0 ATS run, they’d failed to cover in eight of their previous 12 games. And while the Heat are a mediocre 9-10 on the road (10-9 ATS), that’s still better than Washington’s 8-12 SU and ATS home record.
The Wizards went to Miami and shocked the Heat 94-84 as a seven-point road underdog back on Nov. 27, but 17 days earlier, the Heat crushed Washington 90-76 as a nine-point home chalk. With this year’s results, Miami is still on runs of 6-1 SU and 7-1 ATS against the Wizards, including three straight wins and four straight spread-covers in D.C. Additionally, Miami is an amazing 16-4-1 ATS roll in Washington, and the visitor is 21-6-2 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these Southeast Division rivals.
Finally, the Wizards have failed to cover in 20 of their last 26 games against divisional opponents; they’re 10-26 ATS in their last 36 games against opponents with a winning record; and despite covering in a season-best four straight games, they’re still just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games after a spread-cover. By comparison, Miami has proven to be an outstanding bounce-back team, going 4-1 ATS in its last five after a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in its last five after a non-cover and 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when coming off a defeat of more than 10 points.
Throw in the fact that Washington hasn’t had five straight ATS wins since the beginning of December 2008, and I’ll put my money behind the better team with one of the best players in the game out for redemption and facing an opponent they have owned in an arena where were they have been a big-time moneymaker.
Hawks
There’s no denying that the Charlotte Bobcats are the hottest team in the NBA. They’ve won six in a row and nine of their last 10 games and are coming off that aforementioned 39-point rout of the Heat (the biggest win in franchise history). But you can’t ignore the fact that the Bobcats’ current six-game winning streak was compiled entirely at home, where Charlotte is 18-4 SU. Compare that with a 3-15 SU record on the road. Pretty startling disparity there, no?
Now the Bobcats head to Atlanta to face the Hawks, whose home record (17-5) is almost as good as Charlotte’s home mark. More importantly, the Hawks’ 27-14 overall record dwarfs the Bobcats’ 21-19 ledger. And while the Bobcats have been a tremendous moneymaker (25-15 ATS), Atlanta has been better (27-14 ATS).
Atlanta hit a bit of a lull around the holidays, losing four in a row (including home losses to LeBron and the Cavaliers and D-Wade and the Heat). But since that lull, the Hawks have won six of their last eight games. Three of those six wins came by big margins (119-89 vs. New Jersey; 94-82 vs. Washington; 108-97 vs. Sacramento), while the other three came against quality opponents (a home-and-home sweep of the Celtics, and last Friday’s one-point home victory over the Suns).
As for this number, the SU winner has covered the spread in all but four of Atlanta’s 41 games this year. Also, the Hawks have defeated the Bobcats four straight times in Atlanta, and they’ve got a bit of a revenge angle here too, as one of the Hawks’ worst losses this year came in the first meeting with the Bobcats (103-83 in Charlotte).
Finally, while the Bobcats are going out on the road for the first time in seven games and just the second time since Jan. 3, the Heat wrap up a five-game homestand tonight and then get a lot of time off before traveling to Houston for a game against the Rockets on Tuesday, so the situation sets up perfectly for Atlanta.
Tim Trushel
Spurs Under
BRANDON LANG
10 DIME - NEW YORK KNICKS - No, I don't have anything against the Lakers.
I just don't like the way they are playing basketball right now and a lot of it has to do with Kobe.
His finger is a problem as evidenced by his 4 of 19 shooting at home against Orlando including a 2 for 11 performance in the 2nd half.
A few days off and a trip to Cleveland resulted in a 12 of 31 from the floor including a pathetic 4 of 15 in the 2nd half.
He is forcing shots out of their offense, guys are standing around watching Kobe try to save the world and he looks tired to me.
Now off back to back big games against the Magic and Cavs, they roll into New York on back to back nights laying a pretty solid number.
The Knicks have been lying in wait for the Lakers bunch and it's a perfect spot to jump on the home dog.
First of all, the Lakers have had one of the best early season schedules for a defending NBA champion as you could have asked for.
This is just their 18th road game of the year and they have gone 5-12 ATS in the first 17.
It gets even worse.
Of their 17 road games they have been asked to lay 7 points or less 8 times and they are 1-7 ATS with the only cover being at Sacramento.
As a 6 point favorite they had to go to OT to get a 9 point win and cover.
They have played 10 times on back to back nights and the 2nd game they are 4-6 ATS with 3 of those wins coming against the Warriors, Kings and Pistons.
Dare I say this Lakers squad is a bit overrated and yes, they may win tonight but as you can see, they will probably do just enough to win.
I am aware of the fact the Knicks have lost 5 in a row to the Lakers but I fully expect them to be ready to attack a Los Angeles team that may be a little flat.
This is the 2nd game of an 8 game road trip and the value is with the home underdog on the big stage in the big apple.
I'm quite confident Kobe isn't going for 61 points tonight.
FREE SELECTION - MIAMI HEAT
DAVID MALINSKY
4* SAN ANTONIO/HOUSTON Under
The pieces are in place to get a first class defensive effort out of
both of these teams tonight, in a game that will also not bring much
tempo. But the oddsmakers are being most generous with their
projection, so after these two played to a 176 in their first meeting
this season we call for more of the same.
San Antonio was embarrassed defensively in that 105-98 loss to Utah
on Wednesday night, and for a guy like Gregg Popovich that knows how
championships are won and lost, that means an immediate focus on that
end of the court. It is nothing new ? the Spurs have played 6-3 to
the Under this season in games immediately after allowing 100 points
or more, and over the past six seasons it has been a sparkling
51-23-2 run to the Under in this category (as always, our records
only chart regulation results). And we get the combination of both
Pace and Defense working for us, with the Spurs #25 on the former,
and going even more to half-court sets off of a defeat, and climbing
up to #7 now on our best charts for the latter, after getting off to
an uncharacteristically slow start as the new personnel learned to
play as a unit. The half-court play is key because that is where the
Houston offense bogs down, like in that earlier 92-84 home defeat.
But the Rockets will defend well tonight. They get the rare chance to
play a regular-season game off of three full preparation days, which
means a chance to do an excellent job of tactically breaking down the
San Antonio offense, and also bringing some fresh legs to put the
game plan into play. What they cannot find are any easy baskets for
themselves, a major headache when stepping up against the better
teams on their schedule, but with the current roster limitations
there is no amount of practice time that can change that.
The Booooj
10 Units Sacramento +9.5
Special K
5* Bucks/Raptors Over 205.5
NHL PRO PICKS
Montreal +165
Nashville +107
JASON JOHNSON
Bulls at Suns
Pick: Suns -6
This is the time of year that you want to be putting your money on teams that play well at home when they're facing an opponent with a dismal road record. Such is the case tonight. The Suns are 16-4 in Phoenix while the Bulls are 4-15 outside of Chicago.This play is simply on the fact that Chicago does not travel well.
Teddy Covers
Heat
Wisc GB
St. Peters
Anthony Redd
60-Dime - Trail Blazers
Young Gun Sports
4'* Milwaukee Over
3* Charlotte
Triple Crown Sports
3* Miami Heat
4* Iona
DON WALLACE SPORTS
Portland +10.5
Memphis -3.5
Phoenix -6.5
Golden St. -7
Charlotte +7
Miami -3