Jeff Benton
15 Dime NY Knicks
5 Dime Timberwolves
Some might tab the Knicks as a go-against team tonight just because they’re coming off last night’s huge 93-88 home win over the Heat (while the Hawks had last night off). But I have a different take, as I think a victory like that just builds New York’s confiaence and the last thing the players want to do is ruin such a good feeling by falling flat tonight in Atlanta – particularly since the Knicks just went through a six-game losing streak and have rebounded with back-to-back wins.
Of course, New York doesn’t even need to win this game for us to get paid. The Knicks just have to be competitive and stay within the impost – something they’ve done with remarkable success when playing on the road, as they’re an NBA-best 17-6-1 ATS as a visitor this season. Even more impressively, with last night’s upset of Miami, the Knicks are 19-5-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Atlanta has been a money-burner at home and as a favorite. Going back to last year’s playoffs, the Hawks have cashed just seven times in their last 23 games in their arena; they’ve come up short in five straight games as a favorite and 14 of their last 20 as a home favorite; and when asked to lay three points or more this season, Atlanta is a misierable 9-19 ATS.
Continuing this theme, consider this: The ‘dog is 10-4-1 ATS in New York’s last 15 games and 7-0 ATS in Atlanta’s last seven games.
What about the Knicks playing their second game in the last 24 hours? No big deal, as New York has covered in seven of its last eight when playing on back-to-back nights.
What about the potdntial letdown after last night’s win over the Heat? Not worried about it, because New York is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 games when coming off a victory.
Finally, take a look at how this rivalry has played out recently: The underdog has covered in each of the last four meetings. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five. New York is 6-2 ATS in the last eight (winning five of the last seven outright). And the Knicks have gone to Atlanta and walked away with the cash six straight times (including outright upsets as a double-digit underdog in last year’s two trips to Georgia)!
Vegas has blown this pointspread, guys, blown it big time. And don’t be shocked if the Knicks pull off a fourth outright upset in their last five games against the Hawks.
TWOLVES
No question Minnesota has had a tough time cracking the win column lately, losing 10 of 11 and the last five in a row, including back-to-back crushing home losses to Houston (129-125) and Oklahoma City (118-117 in overtime) this week. That said, how in the world can Utah be laying this many points right now?
The Jazz have dropped six games in a row SU and ATS (including losses to the Wizards, Nets and 76ers). And they have covered the spread exactly three times in 17 games since Dec. 22, going 1-6 ATS at home over this stretch (the only home cover came against the god-awful Cavaliers).
Ironically, guess how Utah’s 3-14 ATS slump started? With a 112-107 win at Minnesota as a six-point road favorite on Dec. 22 (falling to 2-7 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Timberwolves, including 1-3 ATS in Salt Lake City).
Now, clearly, the TWolves have been a disaster on the road this season (2-21). However, since early December, they’ve put up several good fights on the highway, losing twice at San Antonio by margins of 6 and 3 points; losing at New York by 7; losing at Phoenix by 5, at Denver by 2 and at Boston by 3.
Utah has failed to cover in seven straight games when favored by 5 to 10½ points, and tonight the Jazz may not have the services of their best player (point guard Deron Williams is questionable with a wrist injury, one of three Utah players – Raja Bell and Paul Milsap being the others – who are on the injury report). And while the TWolves’ defense has been atrocious during its five-game losing skid (they’re allowing 118.8 ppg), it’s not like the Jazz are stopping anyone, giving up the following point totals in their last 11 games: 110, 110, 99, 125, 99, 108, 103, 110, 96, 120 and 112. Additionally, prior to Wednesday’s 112-105 home loss to San Antonio, Utah had a four-game stretch in which its offense produced just 95, 86, 85 and 91 points.
Does that look like a team that can cover this kind of pointspread? I sure don’t think so. Grab the points with the TWolves, who continue to play hard each and every night – and that effort may be enough to get a W here, as the Jazz right now look completely deflated and are displaying the kind body language that screams lack of confidence/desire.