Tom Stryker
5* Vanderbilt
3* Kansas St
Triple Crown
4* Temple
4* Xavier
3* Tennessee
C-Star Sports
5000 Units Utah/Milwaukee over the total
1000 Units ARKON MINUS THE POINTS OVER Western Michigan
SEABASS
300* Wisconsin
100* Akron
100* Lafayette Over
50* Richmond
50* Miami
50* Lafayette100* Steam - Miss
300* Wisconsin Should be 300* Wisconsin Under
Marty Otto
V Tech -3.5
SPORTS UNLIMITED
3* Rhode Island
SPORTS BANK
400* Rhode Island
King Creole
3* Southern Mississippi +2.5
WRONG team favored in this Semi-Final CONFERENCE USA matchup. The GOLDEN EAGLES have cruised in each of their two Conference Tourney games, beating UAB and Tulane BOTH by double-digit margins. They were hot coming into this Tourney... and have maintained their steam. Meanwhile, the favored COUGARS went right down to the wire in upsetting #2 Seed Memphis yesterday by ONE point. According to the database, that LATE... CLOSE win puts the Houston team in serious jeopardy today.
Let's first take a look at what's been PROFITABLE in this particular Tournament. Houston might be playing with same-season single REVENGE... but this one of those Tourneys in which Revenge means SQUAT.
1-10 ATS since 2001: All CONF USA Tourney teams playing with 'SSR1' (same-season single revenge) in the Semi-Final round (Houston). Teams that are LAYING points have gone a PERFECT 0-4 ATS.
Very 'short' favorites (like the Coogs) have also done very poorly.... whether it's in the Semi-Final round... or ANY round.
1-11 ATS since 2001: All CONF USA Tourney neutral or road favorites of -4 or LESS points (Houston) vs any opponent off a SU win (SOUTHERN MISS).
0-6-1 ATS since 2003: All CONF USA Tourney favorites of -6 or LESS point in the SEMI-FINAL round (Houston).
As mentioned, the GOLDEN EAGLES are on a big-time roll.... having won 4 straight AND covering their last 3 in a row,
8-1-1 ATS: All CONF USA Underdogs (in ANY round) of < 10 points playing off 3 or more SU and ATS wins in a row (SOUTHERN MISS).
Systems that pertain to ALL College Conference Tournaments:
Both teams are playing their third STRAIGHT day with NO rest. Each team won on Wednesday and Thursday. The database tells us to grab the points with the 'short' DOG in these rest situations.
8-1 ATS since 2003: ALL Conference Tourney SEMI-FINAL Underdogs of < 6 points (SOUTHERN MISS) when BOTh teams have played in EACH of the last 2 days.
I mentioned that Houston won yesterday's game over Memphis by ONE slim point...
1-9 ATS last 6 years: ALL Conference Tourney SEMI-FINAL favorites playing off a SU underdog win of 2 points or LESS (Houston). In the last three years, these teams have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATS. It appears that they have NOTHING left in the tank off such an emotional and close Underdog win.
Now let's plug in the impact of an UPSET win over a #2 SEED... and the likely aftermath. Lat season, these teams s**t the bed in their next game.
0-7 ATS last year: All ALL Conference Tourney favorites playing off a SU win over a #2 SEED (Houston).
In case you think last season was a fluke, let's step back for a 10-year look.
The results are just as good.
1-6-1 ATS since 1998: All ALL Conference Tourney SEMI-FINAL favorites playing off an Underdog win over a #2 SEED (Houston).
Another System that was PERFECT last season has us squarely on the GOLDEN EAGLES. it pertains to teams who won each of their last two Tourney games by 10 or more points.
4-0 ATS last year: All ALL Conference Tourney SEMI-FINAL underdogs playing off BB double-digit wins in a row.
Finally, let's take a look at the rare seeding matchup that occurs in this SEMI-FINAL round. Houston is a #7 seed while Southern Miss is a #6 seed.
5-0-1 ATS last 10 years: ALL Conference Tourney #6 SEED Underdogs (SOUTHERN MISS) versus a #7 SEED team playing off a SU underdog win (Houston).
Tim Trushel
20* W Virginia Under
Illinois
Pacific
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket California
Minnesota
Georgia
Texas A&M
Cavaliers
Jimmy Boyd
5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier -3
Ever since Xavier was absolutely embarrassed by Dayton, losing 65-90, the Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, winning 7 in a row with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. You can bet Xavier was hoping it would get a chance to face Dayton again. Well, it gets that chance this evening and I expect the Musketeers to get their revenge. Right away, I love the fact that plays on any team revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 32-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Flyers enter at 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Xavier is 17-6 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Look for Xavier to roll tonight.
4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side.
4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Clippers +10
After 5 straight losses, the Clippers will be a very hungry team tonight. On top of that, they will draw confidence from a 98-94 win over the Bobcats last month. The Bobcats are rolling, having won 4 in a row SU & ATS, but it's going to be difficult for them to give the Clippers their full attention with Orlando up next. Just last month, the Bobcats lost to the Nets at home when they were caught looking ahead to Cleveland. Plus, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 21-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Clippers.
ERIN RYNNING
20* Playmaker: Philadelphia Over 197.5
Milwaukee Pk
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Illinois (+8) over Wisconsin
Millionaire - Miss State (-1½) over Florida
Perfect Play - Florida State (-6) over NC State
Slam Dunk Club - Dayton (+3) over Xavier
Youngstown Connection
St Louis +3
Craig Davis
40 Dime – UNLV/BYU OVER
20 Dime – KANSAS STATE
BYU/UNLV OVER - Either this total is a major trap of I found a mistake that I'm going to expose in a big way. These two teams are built on offense and transition buckets and I can assure you that both of these coaches are preaching "push the ball, push the ball". Defense goes out the window when these two hook up as evidenced by the 8 OVERS in their last 10 meetings. The teams that usually wins this perennial game is the team that "outscores" the other one... not the team that plays the best defense and comes up with stops. And if the history of this series doesn't tell you enough, maybe the fact BYU scores 83 PPG overall or 90 PPG on a neutral floor is enough for you.
Or we might consider that UNLV played BYU tight in Provo (only a four-point loss) followed by a 14-point home win at the Thomas and Mack Center. Why is that important? Because neither of those games were even close to what BYU is capable of offensively, and they have some major revenge on their minds and would love nothing more than to score triple digits again tonight on UNLV's home floor in front of their fans. Since scoring 74 points in that 14-point loss to UNLV, BYU has scored 91, 92, 85, 82, 81, 71, 107 and 95 in their next eight games for an average of 88 PPG. And considering UNLV isn't really a team built on stifling defense, I have to believe BYU will score at least 80 points again tonight. Jimmer Fredette might not be getting any consideration for Player of the Year, but that doesn't mean this kid isn't capable of scoring 45 points again tonight (he had 45 in last night's win over TCU).
UNLV has averaged 75 PPG over their last six and scores 74 PPG for the season. Combine that with the fact they have scored at least 73 points in their last three meetings with BYU and you see why I like the OVER so much in tonight's game. BYU has gone OVER the total in seven of their last nine games while UNLV has finished OVER in three of their last four. The line is currently at a pick 'em, which also leads me to believe Vegas thinks this game is going to be close... which gives us the slim chance of overtime which will only help our cause. However, I don't think we'll need overtime tonight. I'm looking at a final score in the neighborhood of 84-79 tonight, which easily puts us over the number.
KANSAS STATE - This is as close to a home game as Kansas State could have hoped for playing in Kansas City, and this tournament is setting up to be a Kansas/Kansas State Championship game in Kansas City and the locals wouldn't have it any other way. These two teams (Baylor and Kansas State) have already matched up once this season with the Wildcats outlasting Baylor, 76-74, down in Waco. Both of these teams are athletic all over the floor, but you've heard the saying (probably too often) that solid guard play wins tournament games. Well, as much as I respect Baylor's guards and what they've accomplished this season, I have to give the advantage to Kansas State's Jacob Pullen and Dennis Clemente. These two combined for 31 points in last night's 19-point win over a very good Oklahoma State team. But the contributions from Jamar Samuels (27 points last night) is what's going to set this team apart for this tournament and the Big Dance.
If the Wildcats can continue to get these type of numbers from some of their post players to go along with what we know Clemente and Pullen can do, this is going to be a very dangerous team that could be playing in April. Taking nothing away from Baylor and what they've accomplished this year, I just don't think they have the horses to hang with Kansas State for 40 minutes. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing but respect for Tweety Carter and the Baylor Bears because of how scrappy they've played this year (including three straight wins over Texas), but in a 40-minute game in a basic home game for Kansas State, I just don't see how Baylor can get the job done. I like Kansas State by at least 6 tonight.