RAS
Arizona -5.5
Xavier -1.5
Maddux Sports
10 Units Michigan +2
10 Units George Mason -1
10 Units Syracuse -11.5
10 Units Xavier -2
10 Units Notre Dame -13
10 Units Texas -9.5
10 Units Illinois +2
Dr Bob
Duke
Syracuse
Xavier
Notre Dame
Texas A&M
Purdue
Texas
UNLV
Matt Rivers
Purdue
2-Minute Warning
North Carolina
Al DeMarco
Villanova -1
Andy Fanelli
Arizona
Oakland
Houston
Anthony Redd
St. Peter's
Oakland
Marquette
Brett Atkins
Michigan
UNLV
Chuck O'Brien
George Mason
Oakland
Oakland-Texas Over
Steve Duemig
Villanova
Texas
Steven Budin
Duke
Craig Davis
Indiana State
Joel Tyson
Texas A&M
Trace Adams
Purdue
Great Lakes Sports
5* Xavier
4* George Mason
3* Georgia
4* Charlotte
3* Dallas
Chris Jordan
100* Oakland +10.5
100* Florida St +1
100* Georgia / Washington Under 141
Power Play Wins
Oklahoma City -9.5
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Duke
15 Dime George Mason
Duke
Normally I don’t lay these big points with No. 1 seeds in the first round, but I’m making an exception with Duke because of a circumstance that has me believing the Blue Devils will have their starters on the floor in a late-game blowout situation more than they (or any No. 1 seed) ordinarily would. See, Duke’s star freshman point guard Kyrie Irving has (surprisingly) been upgraded to probable for this contest, and all indications are the top NBA prospect is going to give it a go for the first time since a Dec. 4 contest at Butler. Obviously, Irving’s presence exponentially improves Duke’s chances to repeat as champs – the 6-foot-2 New Jersey kid averaged 17.4 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.1 assists in eight games, including a 31-point effort against Michigan State on Dec. 1).
But Coach K knows that for his star recruit to be a factor in this Tournament, he has to get significant game action, not only to shake off the rust but to reacquaint himself with his teammates. In fact, Irving’s return will cause a big shake-up for Duke’s lineup, as it means Nolan Smith – who was so spectacular in place of Irving that he’s a national Player of the Year candidate – moves back to the 2-guard spot, and Smith will need time to readjust to that move.
Of course, all this means bad news for Hampton, which instead of seeing Duke’s scrubs in the second half will probably have to deal with the Blue Devils’ “A” lineup. And even though the Pirates had a strong season – they went 24-8 and had only two double-digit losses, by 11 and 12 points – they also never faced an opponent as loaded as Duke. In fact, Hampton’s best win was a two-point neutral-site victory over Colorado State on New Year’s Day (which came two days after a 12-point loss at San Francisco). Its second-best win? Take your pick between Winthrop and George Washington. At the same time, the Pirates suffered losses to Wake Forest (the worst team in the ACC), Delaware, Morgan State, Florida A&M (twice) and North Carolina A&T (by 11 points).
Finally, since getting upset in the first round (as a No. 6 seed) by VCU in 2007 and nearly getting clipped by Belmont the following year (71-70 win as a 20-point chalk), Duke has put its foot on the throat on first-round opponents the last two years, crushing Binghamton 86-62 (as a 23½-point chalk) two years ago and hammering Arkansas Pine-Bluff (73-44 as a 24-point favorite) en route to a 5-1 ATS run through last year’s Big Dance (all as a favorite, only failing to cover in the two-point title-game win over Butler).
Duke, which ripped North Carolina in Sunday’s ACC championship game, enters this tourney on a 7-3 ATS run and has cashed four straight times when laying big points (13 points or more). And that was all without Irving. With him in the lineup and playing significant minutes, Hampton is in for a long afternoon.
One last note: Despite laying huge points, No. 1 seeds are 8-4 ATS in the first round the last three Tournaments.
George Mason
Not much explanation needed here, as there’s a clear reason George Mason is the better seed and the favorite in this game. Just check the numbers: The Patriots are 26-6 overall and 22-8 ATS, including 15-1 SU in their last 16 games and 15-3 ATS in their last 18. Meanwhile Villanova lost 10 of its last 15 games, including seven of the last nine and the last five in a row, and the Wildcats come into this game in a 1-12 ATS free fall, including nine consecutive non-covers to end the season.
And it’s not like Villanova’s end-of-season nosedive is the result of playing a slew of Big East juggernauts. Sure, since mid-January the Wildcats have dropped games to Pitt (twice), UConn (twice), Notre Dame (by 21) and Syracuse and St. John’s (both of whom won on ‘Nova’s home court). But the ‘Cats also lost to Rutgers, Providence and South Florida (the latter in the Big East tournament, when Villanova blew a 16-point halftime lead). Additionally, Jay Wright’s club barely survived against Seton Hall and DePaul (two wins by a combined five points).
Now, I know some out there would argue that the Wildcats are a sleeper in this tournament because A) they’re more talented than they’ve played over the past two months, and B) they’ve had more than a week to rest up and prepare for this contest, having not played since getting bounced in the Big East tournament last Tuesday. Maybe. But you could’ve said the same thing last year, when Villanova went 2-5 in its final seven games (including a first-round conference tournament exit), still grabbed a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance and nearly got clipped by No. 15 seed Robert Morris (73-70 overtime win as a 16 ½-point chalk), eventually going home after an eight-point loss to St. Mary’s in the second round.
Finally, George Mason knows it can play with this team, as it went to Villanova in November 2009 and nearly shocked the Wildcats (the Patriots blew a nine-point halftime lead and lost 69-68 as a 15-point ‘dog). And make no mistake: This Patriots are much better than they were last year (when they went 17-15 and lost in the first round of the College Invitational Tournament to Fairfield). At the same time, we can say with certainty that the 2010-11 version of the Wildcats is worse than the 2009-10 entrant. George Mason wins this one 73-64.
Sean Higgs
4* Oakland +9.5
Going to take the Golden Grizzlies here. Oakland can score. I will take nearly double digits with a team that scores 86ppg, hits 49% of its shots, hits 71% of its FTs and averages nearly 36 boards a game. Oakland didn't take a cake non-con schedule either. These guys played Ohio State, Valpo, Michigan, Tenn, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue among others. Facing Texas won't be some shock and awe intimidation factor. Keith Benson is a monster at center averaging 18ppg and 10rpg. He gets inside help from Wil Hudson and his 12.5ppg and 7rpg. Guard Reggie Hamilton averages 17 and also dishes out over 5 assists a contest. The team isn't deep, but they love to run and gun. Take the points small and we will roll it with the over and see if we can cash 'em both.
4* Oak/Tex Over 153.5
Oakland gets up and down the court like nobodies business. They average 86ppg and allow 77.
4* Villanova Pk
Taking Villanova here. I know this team has slumped as badly as any in the country of late. But do you really believe they are just going to fold up shop and not come to play here in the dance. If I hear one more person on the George Mason fan wagon.. geez.. I cannot believe that Jay Wright won't have his team in top form here.
5* Xavier -2.5
Taking Xavier here. Let's keep it real here people. Marquette is just not that good. I like Big East hoops, but this team and Nova really didn't deserve a spot. Give it to a hungry mid-major. Speaking of mid-major, we have the A-10 being well represented here. The Big East's little brothers. You telling me that X doesn't want to take this team out behind the woodshed for an old fashion beat-down. X has a bonafide star, who will take the big shot. Hell, Tu Holloway will take ALL the shots. Xavier gets the A-10 to 3-0 (Temple, Richmond)
10* Syracuse -12
Taking the Orange here. I would be calling this a flat-out blowout, but SU isn't that strong from the line. And when I say blow-out, I am taking 20-25 point win. Orange should easily get this game to 15. Their 2-3 zone is not your normal 2-3. Can't see Indiana State being ready for this kind of matchup. They have a first year HC who is going to be as wide eyed as his players making their first trip dancing since 2001. ISU has one guy averaging 11ppg, and then 6 others averaging at least 6ppg. For as good as they are defensively allow 64ppg, they only score 66. SU scores nearly 74, while allow less points, 63ppg. SU won 18 in a row, dropped 6 of 8 in Big East play (11 teams dancing here) then reeled off 6 straight before falling to UCONN. In the end, SU is going to be too long and athletic for the Sycamores.
RAS
Duke Over 134.5
Villanova Over 135
Washington Over 141.5
Chip Chirimbes
Virginia Commonwealth vs. Georgetown
Play: Virginia Commonwealth +6
Coming off our Megabucks win with VCU (24-11) on Wednesday I have no problem coming back with them against a Georgetown (21-10) team that has dropped five of their last six straight-up and all six tot he points. Hoyas' guard Chris Wright broke his hand on February 23rd and the club hasn't been the same since. While the Rams are off Wednesday's contest it has been nine days since Georgetown was on the floor.
Dr Bob
2* Duke (-22½) over Hampton
Duke has a long history of beating up on bad teams and the Blue Devils are 79-49-2 ATS as a favorite of 20 points or more. This season the Blue Devils are 10-3 ATS when favored by 18 points or more and they won by an average of 32.7 points in 7 games against teams within +/- 6 points of Hampton’s rating with all 7 victories being by 24 points or more. Duke’s bench players are high school All-American’s and the Blue Devils play hard man-to-man defense at all times, regardless of the score, which usually extends the margin late in blowout wins. Teams seeded #1 that enter the tournament off a win are 13-2 ATS when favored by 24 points or less in the first round, including Duke’s 73-44 first round win last year as a 24 point favorite. Hampton is a terrible team with a horrendous offense (40.6% FG in a horrible league) and I favor Duke by 28 ½ points (with a total of 134 points) based on their tendency to play relatively better against bad teams. I’ll take Duke in a 2-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less and for 3-Stars at -22 or less.
3* Syracuse (-11½) over Indiana State
Indiana State has been on a nice run lately, winning 8 of 9 games while covering in 8 of their last 10 contests. The Sycamores, however, apply to a negative 15-43-1 ATS first round letdown situation while Syracuse applies to a 26-4-1 ATS situation and a 79-27-3 ATS situation. My ratings favor the Orange by 12½ points (with a total of 130.5 points) and I’ll take Syracuse in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less and for 2-Stars at -13½ points.
2 * Xavier (-2) over Marquette
Xavier struggled a bit offensively early in the season, but the Musketeers improved in that regard after New Year’s day and I rate these teams about the same heading into this game. Xavier has the advantage of playing this game in nearby Cleveland and teams playing in their home state have enjoyed an advantage over the years (125-82 ATS). Xavier also applies to a 20-0 ATS subset of a 56-13-1 ATS round 1 situation and Marquette applies to a negative 11-43 ATS round 1 situation. While my season ratings would favor Marquette by 1½ points my current ratings favor Xavier by 1½ points with that 1½ points being their semi-home advantage. The line opened at - ½ and has gone up a bit, but the situation is certainly strong enough to give up some line value. I’ll take Xavier in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less and for 3-Stars at -1 or better.
3* Notre Dame (-13½) over Akron
Notre Dame’s Big East Tournament loss to Louisville should have them motivated for this game and the Irish apply to a very good 26-4-1 ATS subset of a 79-27-3 ATS round 1 situation. Akron, meanwhile, applies to a negative 15-43-1 ATS round 1 situation and my ratings favor the Irish by 14 ½ points (with a total of 140 points). I’ll take Notre Dame in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -15 points.
3* Texas A&M (pick) over Florida State
These two teams rate the same using a point margin rating system, but Texas A&M is better at winning games (the Aggies are 3 points better using a win-loss rating system) and the winner of this game wins the bet. Florida State did beat Duke, but their only other win this season against an NCAA caliber team was against Clemson, as the Seminoles are 2-9 straight up against good teams. Texas A&M, meanwhile, is 6-5 straight up against NCAA caliber teams (that includes a 1-1 against Colorado and Nebraska) with wins over Temple, Washington, 2 against Missouri, and a victory in their only game against Kansas State. If you take out the elite teams that the Aggies played (they were 0-4 against Kansas and Texas) then they’re 6-1 against good but not great teams – which is what Florida State is. The Seminoles were 1-3 against elite teams (Ohio State, Duke and North Carolina), but they were 1-6 against other good teams (1-1 against Clemson and losses against Florida, Butler, 2 to Virginia Tech, and a loss to Maryland). My ratings pick this game even (with a total of 123 ½ points), but Texas A&M appears more capable of winning. The Aggies also apply to a 65-16-1 ATS round 1 situation while FSU applies to a negative 11-43 ATS round 1 angle. I’ll take Texas A&M in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars at -1½ or -2 points.
2* Purdue (-14) over St. Peter’s
Purdue ended the regular season with a 2 point loss at Iowa and then the Boilermakers lost by 18 points to Michigan State thanks to extreme 3-point shooting variance (54% for MSU, 19% for Purdue). However, Purdue is 17-0-1 ATS after a loss of 9 points or more and the Boilermakers apply to a 26-4-1 ATS subset of a 79-27-3 ATS round 1 situation. St. Peter’s, meanwhile, applies to a negative 15-43-1 ATS round 1 situation and the Peacocks have been beaten up by good teams this season. St. Peter’s did manage to beat Iona in their conference tournament championship game, but they also lost by an average of 16 points in the other two meetings against the Gaels and they lost by 20 points at Seton Hall in their only other game against a good team. My ratings favor Purdue by 15½ points (with a total of 123 points) but 14 ½ is a fair line given the suspension of reserve G Kelsey Barlow. I’ll take Purdue in a 2-Star Best Bet at -15 points or less and for 3-Stars at -13 points.
4* Texas (-9½) over Oakland
Oakland plays at a high tempo and that can lead to blowout wins against lesser teams, as more possessions equal more chance to increase the margin of victory. However, playing at a fast pace usually backfires against better competition and Texas is the team likely to take advantage of the extra possessions by winning by a bigger margin. Using a system based on point differentials (and strength of opponent and site, of course) would result in a prediction of Texas by 10 points, which is what the line opened at. However, adding a pace component, which hurts Oakland against better teams just as it helps them against lesser teams, leads to a prediction of Longhorns by 11½ points using all games (with 158 total points). As expected the Grizzlies didn’t perform as well against better teams, as their average game rating in 7 games against good teams (West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee, and Ohio State) was 4.5 points lower than their overall rating. Six of those 7 games were on the road (the other was a neutral) site and the average difficulty of those 7 games (opponent rating at site) is 1 point easier than playing Texas on a neutral floor. Oakland lost those 7 games by an average of 14.0 points and the Grizzlies would lose by 15 points against the Longhorns if they play at the same level that they played against those other good teams. Regardless of how you look at it, Texas should be favored by at least 11½ points in this game (by 13 points if I factor in Oakland’s tendency to play relatively worse against better teams). Oakland loves to fire away from 3 point range (22 attempts per game at 37.9% success), but Texas is among the best in the nation at defending the 3-point arc, allowing just 29.0% and I don’t see the Grizzlies doing too much damage inside the 3-point line against a Texas team that is equally good defending the paint. In addition to the line value the Longhorns apply to a very good 65-16-1 ATS round 1 situation. I’ll take Texas in a 4-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less, for 3-Stars from -10½ to -12 points and for 2-Stars at -12 ½ or -13 points.
2* UNLV (-2) over Illinois
UNLV is 24-8 straight up and 6 of their losses have come against teams that I rated among the top 13 in the nation, as the Rebels lost at Louisville, twice to BYU (both losses to BYU were before the Cougars dismissed Davies from the team) and 3 times to San Diego State. The Rebels are 5-0 straight up against all other NCAA caliber teams that aren’t elite teams (beat Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Kansas State and New Mexico twice). Illinois has 13 losses on the season and only 5 of those were against elite teams (twice to Ohio State and Purdue, and a loss to Texas; they beat North Carolina before the Tarheels changed point guards and were not an elite team). In their other 11 games against NCAA caliber teams (but not elite teams) the Illini were just 6-5 straight up, which pales in comparison to UNLV’s 5-0 record against that level of competition. My ratings actually only favor UNLV by 1 point (with a total of 134 points), so the line is a little high, but the Rebels apply to a very good 20-0 ATS subset of a 56-13-1 ATS situation while Illinois applies to a negative 18-45-1 ATS situation. I’ll take UNLV in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less and for 3-Stars at -1 or better.
Thursday Opinions
Georgia (+5½) over Washington
Washington is a team that ran up the margin of victory on lesser teams early in the season, but the Huskies aren’t as good against better competition and they haven’t been as good since losing starting point guard Abdul Gaddy in early January. Washington is just 6-7 straight up this season against NCAA caliber competition (including Washington State, who I have ranked #43) and they won only 4 of those games by 6 points or more. Georgia, however, is barely NCAA caliber, as I rate the Bulldogs as the 50th best team in the nation. Georgia is just 3-11 straight up against NCAA caliber competition (including a win over Colorado and 2 losses to Alabama) and the Bulldogs lost 10 of those games by 6 points or more. My ratings favor Washington by 5½ points (with 144 ½ total points) but I have Washington by 6½ points using only games against NCAA caliber teams. Washington does apply to a negative 8-23-2 ATS situation that plays against teams that won their conference tournament, so I’ll lean with Georgia at +5 points or more.
George Mason (-1) vs Villanova
Villanova is the first team ever to make the NCAA Tournament on a 5 game losing streak, but the two teams that made it in on a 4 game losing streak both won and covered the spread in their first round game. Also, teams that have lost 4 or more consecutive games to the spread and lost straight up in their first conference tournament game are 12-3 ATS in their first NCAA tournament game if seeded #11 or better - so don’t make too much of Nova’s recent slide. My ratings favor Nova by 1 point but George Mason does apply to a 38-10 ATS situation. This game could go either way and I’ll pass on the side in this game. My math projects 142 total points and I’ll lean Over 138 points or less.
Arizona (-5 1/2) over Memphis
Using all games for both teams would result in a prediction of Arizona by 9 ½ points (with a total of 143 points), but Memphis performed better against better teams and I get the Wildcats by 6½ points when I factor that in. Arizona applies to a decent 45-22-1 ATS round 1 situation and I’ll lean with Arizona at -7 or less.
Kansas (-22½) over Boston U.
Teams seeded #1 that enter the tournament off a win are 13-2 ATS when favored by 24 points or less in round 1 and my ratings favor the Jayhawks by 23½ points in this game (with a total of 138½ points). I’ll lean with Kansas at -24 or less.
Jimmy Boyd
*5 Georgetown -5.5
*4 Texas -10
*3 Georgia +5.5
Bob Balfe
Villanova -1.5
St Peters +14.5
Illinois +2.5
RAS
UNLV Over 133
Ohio St Over 138