Jay McNeil
Georgia
KELSO
Added
50 Units Philadelphia 76ers
5 Units Dallas Mavericks
Erin Rynning
Denver
MATT FARGO
Georgia vs Washington
Pick: Georgia +5.5
This is a good number for Georgia as it matches up well with Washington as these two teams are relatively equal in my opinion. The Bulldogs are coming off a tough loss in overtime Alabama in the SEC Tournament and they will use that as a motivator as well as the fact people say they do not belong in the field of 68. Going into the that game against Alabama, the average RPI of the eight teams that had beaten the Bulldogs was 23 with a high of 10 (Notre Dame) and low of 79 (Alabama) so there are no bad losses. Washington claimed the Pac Ten Tournament with an overtime over Arizona but the inconsistencies make the Huskies a tough team to back especially with a number this big. The Huskies had just four wins against teams ranked in the top 50 of the RPI, none of which came outside of the Pac Ten. Those victories were twice against Arizona and twice against UCLA. Washington is only 12 spots higher in the RPI than Georgia and that does not warrant a line this big but the public continues to ride the Huskies. While Washington has decent balance and in deep, one of the assets of the Bulldogs is extremely good balance. Trey Tompkins averages 16.1 ppg, Travis Leslie averages 14.5 ppg and Gerald Robinson averages 12.2 ppg. In addition, every starter has had at least one 20-point game this season which makes them dangerous. An additional edge for Georgia and its NCAA bid was the chance to play in Charlotte, only a few hours from Athens while Washington has to travel all the way east. 9* Georgia Bulldogs
Evan Altemus
Xavier, Ohio -2.5
Marquette really hasn't been that impressive this season, and they have lost several games where they were in somewhat of a must win situation. The Golden Eagles only recent wins were against lesser teams such as Providence (twice), Seton Hall, and they needed overtime to beat Connecticut. They were also hammered by Louisville in the Big East tournament. Xavier has quietly improved throughout this season, and they have one of the better players in college basketball in Tu Holloway. The Musketeers dominated conference play as well, and they have some strong wins against better teams, including going on the road and beating Georgia soundly. Look for Xavier to get the win.
Lenny Del Genio
UNLV -2.5
Two teams headed in opposite directions here. The Runnin Rebels come into the Tournament having won 10 of 13 with the only losses coming to BYU and San Diego State and have gone 13-3 SU all-time in the 1st Round. Illinois has dropped 10 of 16 and has lost in the first round BB years. The Illini are a miserable 1-10 ATS in neutral court games the past two seasons. UNLV is 56-29 ATS when the line is three or less, which it is here. This is also a chance for Rebels HC Kruger to "stick it" to his former team. Illinois has just one win over a NCAA Tournament team away from home this season and it came back in December. Overall, Bruce Weber's team was 5-11 SU away from Champaign compared to 12-3 for Vegas. Take UNLV.
Rocketman
3* North Carolina
BIG AL
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over Indiana State. The Orange fall into a 57-32 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in the 1st round of the Tournament off a loss in their previous game, while the Sycamores fall into a negative 41-84 ATS system of mine that fades certain teams off upset wins (Indy State upended Missouri St. 60-56, as 5.5-point dogs in their last game). The Sycamores' run to the MVC Title was largely on the heels of their defense, as they held each of their 3 opponents to under 40% FG shooting. Indiana State's defense is ranked 61st in efficiency, but Syracuse's defense is even better (16th), and the Orange rank #1 in Blocks, #9 in steals, and #24 in 3-point defense. Moreover, Syracuse balances a great defense with a great offense (ranking 18th in efficiency), while Indiana State's offense is pedestrian (171st), and hurt largely by a high commission of turnovers (ranking 246th). That certainly doesn't bode well against Syracuse's tough defenders. Lay the points.
At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Xavier Musketeers over Marquette. The Golden Eagles certainly don't have many of the characteristics I look for when handicapping tournament games. Marquette was poor in 3-point FG defense (ranking 15th of 16 teams in the Big East, and 271st in the nation) and 14th (out of 16 Big East teams) in scoring defense. The Golden Eagles also lack a pure post presence, and will suffer greatly on the boards vs. the Musketeers, whose bigs include 7-footer Kenny Frease and 6'8", 235 lb Jamel McLean. Before losing to Dayton by a single point in the Atlantic 10 Tourney, Xavier had won nine straight, and 16 of 17. Look for the Musketeers to resume their winning ways today.
At 9:20 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels minus the points over Illinois. The Rebels' defense has been stifling all season, and allows just 89.9 points per 100 possessions (17th in the country). Moreover, they protect the ball, ranking 16th in not allowing steals. The Illini stumbled down the stretch, and haven't won back to back games since early January! They've been installed as a small underdog here, yet have only won 1 game all season as an underdog (at Minnesota on Feb 10). UNLV was 24-8 this season and seven of its 8 losses came to NCAA Tourney teams (like BYU, Louisville and San Diego St). In stark contrast is Illinois' resume, which contains losses to such teams as Illinois-Chicago, Indiana, and Northwestern. UNLV is much better than most people realize. Take the Rebels.
At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Georgetown Hoyas minus the points over VCU, as Georgetown falls into a 'contrarian' system of mine that's cashed 90% in the post-season since 1991. What we want to do is play on any .643 (or better) team off 4+ losses, if it's matched up against a .700 (or worse) foe not off back to back wins. With the Hoyas having lost four straight to end their Big East season, and VCU in off exactly one win, we'll lay the wood with Georgetown here.
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Denver, as we will fade the Nuggets off their last two wins -- both upset victories on the road. And, since 1990, NBA road underdogs are a poor 33% ATS as road dogs off back to back 5-point wins as an underdog. With Denver in off upset wins at New Orleans (114-103) and Atlanta (102-87), let's fade the Nuggets, and lay the points with the Magic.
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over St Peters. In their last game, the Boilers were throttled 74-56 by Michigan State, and failed to cover the seven-point spread by a whopping 25 points. In contrast, St. Peters won 62-57 over Iona as a 9-point dog, and thus covered by 14. The knee jerk reaction might be to play on the Peacocks here, given the disparate results of the teams' recent games. But I wouldn't do that if I were you. Consider that, over the past 21 years, teams that covered by more than 12 points are a poor 28% ATS vs. foes that failed to cover by 9+ points, including a horrid 0-10 ATS when seeded 13th or 14th. Take Purdue.
JB Sorts
2* Minnesota
I have to run guys but that's about everything
THANKS DUDE FOR A LONG DAY !!!!
THANKS DUDE FOR A LONG DAY !!!!
You are welcome.
These two days are long especially while I'm at work.
Sammy Paolini
Canucks Under 5.5
Mike Lineback
Mavericks
Telly
Colorado -6