BEN BURNS
*10 Tournament GOY
I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. I respect Texas A&M. However, considering that they are a #5 seed, I feel that the Aggies from Texas got a really unfortunate draw here.
Many will be down on Utah State, as it lost its Conference Tournament Championship game and hails from a "weaker" conference. Both those points are true. The Aggies did lose their Tournament Championship game and the WAC is certainly not as good as the Big 12. That said, there are several reasons why I feel that Utah State can and will earn the upset here.
Yes, the Big 12 is better than the WAC. However, Utah State is the best team from the WAC, the loss in the finals notwithstanding. The same cannot be said of Texas A&M in the Big 12. Yes, Utah State lost it the WAC Finals. However, the Aggies may have assumed that they already had an NCAA berth wrapped up and may have been already looking ahead. Either way, let's not forget that they had won 17 in a row, before that loss.
Unlike a lot of teams from lesser conferences, getting to the Big Dance is nothing new for the Aggies from Utah State. Indeed, this is their second straight appearance and the seventh time that they've been here in the last 11 years. They lost in the first round last season. However, that was against a Marquette team which had started the season 20-2 and which had been one of the better teams in what was a very powerful Big East Conference. Additionally, that loss came by just a single point. Note that they limited the Golden Eagles to only 47 shot attempts and a mere 36.2 percent shooting.
I feel that this year's Utah State team is every bit as good as last year's team, arguably even better. Yes, they did lose a star when forward Gary Wilkinson graduated. That was admittedly a big loss. The other four starters have all improved though and Nate Bendall (10.4, 5.4) has done a capable job in stepping in for Wilkinson.
As is generally the case when a team that comes from a lesser conference faces a team from a conference like the Big 12, Utah State doesn't necessarily have the type of athleticism that Texas A&M brings to the table. However, the Aggies are more athletic than people probably believe and they also make up for it in a number of different ways.
For starters, they're one of the best shooting teams in the country. In the regular season, the Aggies led the WAC in field goal percentage (48.9), 3-point percentage (42.0) and free throw shooting (76.6). They pass the ball very well and every starter averaged greater than eight points during the regular season.
Additionally, the Utah State Aggies are an extremely efficient team which rarely turns the ball over. Indeed, they had single-digits in turnovers in each of their final six regular season games. For the season, Utah State finished sixth in the nation in fewest turnovers.
They also run a complicated 'motion offense' which can be difficult for opposing teams to prepare for. Fresno State forward Sylvester Seay described preparing for them like this: "They have like 100 damn plays. It's like taking a test and guessing what things the teacher's going to put on the test."
Texas A&M does have excellent guard play. However, Utah State is also strong in that area. Pooh Williams is one of the best defenders in the WAC and he'll be asked to stop A&M senior Donald Sloan. Meanwhile, senior (first-team All-WAC) point guard Jared Quayle is one of the better players that many haven't heard of. He averaged 11.9 points, 4.3 assists and an impressive 6.2 rebounds during the regular season. I expect him to do a good job in slowing down the tempo.
While Utah State doesn't have many senior players, they're not as 'young' as many might imagine, as many of their players have taken two-year church missions.
Utah State coach Stew Morrill, the WAC Coach of the year, said of his team: I like this team. They show up every day. They are great acting kids. They don't care about stats. They care about winning. They share the ball; they play hard.
Over the years, we often see #12 seeds upset #5 seeds. With this game being played at Spokane, Washington, I feel that there's a great shot that we'll see another upset here. *10 Tournament GOY
RAS
Texas A&M -2.5
California +1
David Malinsky
4* XAVIER over MINNESOTA
Perhaps it is over-rating the Big 10 and under-rating the Atlantic 10, or a misread by the markets of Minnesota’s performance in the Big 10 tournament last week that buoyed the Gophers into this field, but this is the wrong price range between these teams. Not only does it mean the usual value aspect, but by reducing this to a pick’em range it also brings in those special “win the game” handicap elements that are so important at tournament time. And it gets us in play.
Xavier made a seamless transition to Chris Mack on the sidelines this season, and much of that could be expected. Mack captained the Musketeers into the NCAA tourney during his playing days, and there has been little change in the system that Sean Miller put in place. So for a program off of four straight trips to the Big Dance, including the Elite Eight and Sweet 16 the past two campaigns, there is a tremendous winning legacy. It carries over to this court, with Dante Jackson and Jason Love playing 121 tourney minutes in that run two years ago, and then Jackson, Love, Terrell Holloway, Kenny Frease and Brad Redford bringing back 279 minutes of floor experience from LY’s tourney. When you add super talent Jordan Crawford to the mix you find a team without a weakness – they can score inside and out; handle the ball with an unselfish focus (three players scored at least 11.8 per game, and four of the top six in the rotation have more assists than turnovers); defend the length of the court (including allowing just 29.4 percent from 3-point range); and knock down their free throws. We show them playing one genuinely poor game all season, an ugly loss to Dayton that they avenged in the A10 tourney, and in the only non-conference game over the past two months they went to Florida and dominated the Gators by a dozen on the scoreboard.
Contrast the polish and winning experience with a Minnesota team that had to adapt early to being without Royce White, then later to the loss of Al Nolen, and had to scrap and claw to get here. That is what the Golden Gophers do, playing hard on defense to make up for shortcomings elsewhere, like the lack of a natural point guard. But while it may look like they made a run last weekend that shows they are peaking at the right time, if Chris Allen had been available for Michigan State it is more than likely that this presence would have been enough to turn around that Friday O.T. decision vs. Michigan State. And beating a Purdue team that was without Robbie Hummel, and had an ailing Lewis Jackson, does not mean anywhere near the power ratings upgrade the markets have made. While the late blowout on Sunday vs. Ohio State can be excused a bit because of it being four games in as many days, there is a residual toll that kind of cycle can take going forward, especially with still toiling 142 minutes in that one.
So what is the bottom line? Xavier brings no weaknesses to the matchup, and plenty of tourney experience, with a combined 16 NCAA wins from key cogs in the rotation. Minnesota does not have a player that has won a game in this field, or any other post-season tourney. And even if it is close late, we much prefer Holloway to get the Musketeers into better offensive sets than Devoe Joseph, a natural #2 guard still learning his way at the point, and with Crawford the best go-to scorer at crunch time the tools are there for Xavier to get this win. In only calling for the win to get the money, the markets have made this one easy for us.
Fezzick
Purdue/Siena Under 130
The Shrink Ken Weitzner
Purdue -4
Utah State +3
Larry Ness
10* 1st Round GOY 3/19
1st Round GOY on Gonzaga
Sportsmemo Newsletter selections:
ERIN RYNNING Last Week: San Antonio (Win)
Game - Minnesota vs. Xavier (Friday @ Milwaukee, Wis.)
BEST BET: #845 Minnesota -1
FAIRWAY JAY Last Week: None
Game - Morgan State vs. West Virginia (Friday @ Buffalo, NY)
BEST BET: #827 Morgan State +17.5
MARTY OTTO Last Week: Orlando Over (Loss)
Game - Wofford vs. Wisconsin (Friday @ Jacksonville, Fla.)
BEST BET: #833 Wofford +10
ANDREW LANGE Last Week: Boston Under (Loss)
Game - New Mexico State vs. Michigan State (Friday @ Spokane, Wash.)
BEST BET: #847 New Mexico State +13.5
TEDDY COVERS Last Week: Milwaukee (Loss)
Game - Utah State vs. Texas A&M (Friday @ Spokane, Wash.)
BEST BET: #852 Texas A&M -2.5
HELMUT SPORTS Last Week: None
Game - Cornell vs. Temple (Friday @ Jacksonville, Fla.)
BEST BET: #832 Temple -3.5
Arthur Ralph Sports
413 - 300 run 58 %
Free Play Pittsburgh -10
Trey Scott
*200 Florida State -2
*200 Minnesota -1
*200 Louisville +1
Rated Picks
5 Units Temple -4
2 Units Xavier -1
2 Units Georgia Tech +2
2 Units Louisville +1
Sportsbetsnow
3 Units Cornell +3.5
3 Units Purdue -4
3 Units Clemson -1.5
3 Units Utah St. +3
3 Units Florida St. -1.5
Gold Sheet
N Mexico St
Dwayne Bryant
Florida St -1.5
Maryland -9.5
David Malinsky
6* California/Louisville Over 149
Chuck O'Brien
25 DIME: PURDUE
10 DIME: TEMPLE
10 DIME: Maryland-Houston OVER
Karl Garrett
20 DIMER - GONZAGA BULLDOGS
10 DIMER - HOUSTON COUGARS