David Malinsky
5* Duke / Purdue Under
RAS
Saint Mary's / Baylor Under 145
Baylor -3.5
DR BOB
2 Star Selection
Ohio State (-4 1/2) over Tennessee
Despite wins over #1 seeds Kansas and Kentucky this season (both at home), the Volunteers are not a great team. Both of those wins came after the dismissal of star Tyler Smith, but overall the Vols were worse in the 23 games without Smith. Ohio State, meanwhile, remains underrated, as their rating is among the best in the nation if you take out the 6 games in which All-American Evan Turner missed. Tennessee was lucky to beat San Diego State in round 1, as they won by just 3 points despite the extremely positive 3-point shooting variance (8 for 17 while SD State made just 3 of 18) and they were in an extremely good situation in round 2 against Ohio. There are no situations favoring Tennessee in this game and they're going to have to get lucky to keep this one close. My ratings favor Ohio State by 7 points and the Buckeyes apply to a 26-4 ATS round 3 situation. I'll take Ohio State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 points. Play Strength: 2-Stars at -5 or less, 3-Stars at -4.
3 Star Selection
Baylor (-4) over St. Mary's
St. Mary's has certainly been impressive, beating Richmond and Villanova behind the incredible play of big man Omar Samhan, who averaged 30.5 points on 75% shooting in those two games. Neither Richmond or Villanova had the big man to match-up with Samhan, but Baylor does. The Bears' Ekpe Udoh averages 3.8 blocks per game and the poor jumping Samhan is not going to have an easy time shooting over Udoh in this game. St. Mary's has more than just Samhan, as they are a very good 3-point shooting team (41.1%), but Baylor is 7-0 ATS the last few years against teams that make 41% or more of their 3-point shots. St. Mary's will have trouble guarding Baylor point man Tweetie Carter and the Bears also have match-up advantages with LaceDarious Dunn on the wing and Quincy Acy down low. Samhan is a good defender, but he can't guard Acy and Udoh at the same time in the paint and nobody on St. Mary's can handle Dunn's athleticism. My ratings favor the underrated Bears by 5 points even without giving them an extra advantage for playing in nearby Houston, where they'll have most of the fan support (teams playing in their home state are 122-80 ATS in the NCAA Tournament). St. Mary's applies to a negative 59-133-4 ATS letdown situation following their 3 straight upset wins and a 9-34-1 ATS NCAA tournament situation. I'll take Baylor in a 3-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 2-Stars at -5 1/2 or -6 points. Play Strength: 3-Stars at -5 or less, 2-Stars up to -6.
2 Star Selection
Northern Iowa (+1) over Michigan State
Northern Iowa's season rating doesn't look all that impressive because the Panthers are not the type of team that runs up the score against weaker competition. However, against good teams Northern Iowa tends to play their core players more minutes and the Panthers play with more intensity, which has resulted in a 30-4 straight up record and a 12-2 ATS mark in games when they're not laying more than 5 points (25-4 ATS in that price range since last season). Northern Iowa is a veteran team that is certainly not intimidated by facing supposedly better opposition and the Panthers are now 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog and 55-24-1 ATS as a dog going back further. There was nothing fluky about the Panthers' win over #1 Kansas, as they shot a modest 9 for 26 from 3-point range and would have lost by about 4 points had each team shot their normal percentage from long range (Kansas was just 6 for 23 from 3-point range).
Michigan State is a flawed team that is just 7-7 straight up against NCAA caliber teams (I included Illinois) while Northern Iowa is now a perfect 4-0 straight up against NCAA teams with wins over Siena (by 17), Old Dominion (by 9), UNLV (by 3) and #1 Kansas (by 2). The Spartans are not only an inferior team but now they're without the player that makes them good, as point guard Kalin Lucas is out for the season after getting injured against Maryland. The Spartans were up by 9 points when Lucas went down and needed a last second shot to win the game. Lucas was injured earlier this season in an 18 point loss at Wisconsin and then they lost by 5 at Illinois without him and by 12 points at home to Purdue when he came off the bench in the next game. It's pretty clear that Michigan State is not nearly as good without their star point guard, who leads the team in scoring and assists while also registering 1.2 steals per game. Backup point guard Korie Lucious hit the game winning shot against Maryland, but Lucious has made only 34% of his shots this season and isn't as good defensively as Lucas, so the Spartans are likely going to struggle in this game, as they have in other games when Lucas has been on the bench. I would make the line on this game MSU by 1 point even if I used all games for Northern Iowa (rather than just their games against decent teams) and if I didn't adjust for Lucas being out. My NCAA tournament ratings give more value to games against quality opposition and those ratings favor Northern Iowa by 2 points without accounting for Lucas being out. You might suspect a letdown from Northern Iowa after beating Kansas, but teams seeded #4 or worse that beat a #1 seed are actually 13-4 ATS in their game if they are once against the worse seeded team. Also, 3rd round games usually go to the lower seeded team when both teams are seeded #5 or worse (11-5 ATS, including 9-1 ATS for the worse seeded team if they're coming off an upset win as a dog of 4 points or more). The wrong team is favored in this game and I'll take Northern Iowa in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better. Play Strength: 2-Stars at -1 or better.
2 Star Selection
Duke (-8) over Purdue
Purdue has played well in the first 2 rounds of this tournament with wins over Siena and a good Texas A&M team, but the Boilermakers are still not as good without injured star Robbie Hummel. Those two wins actually set up the Boilermakers in a very negative 1-19 ATS round 3 situation while Duke applies to a 26-4 ATS round 3 angle. My ratings favor Duke by 8 1/2 points with Hummel out for Purdue and I'll take Duke in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less based on the strong situation.
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket - Baylor
Sean Higgs
50* Ohio State
20* Duke
Marc Lawrence
5 Unit GOY - Baylor
James Patrick Sports
5* Utah/Indiana Over 210
Trace Adams
2000* Baylor
500* Atlanta Hawks
Sportsbetsnow
3 Units Northern Iowa +1
Will Cover
4* N. Iowa
3* Duke
Fantasy Sports Gametime
1000* Northern Iowa +1
50* Tennessee +4.5
50* Purdue +8.5
Larry Ness
10* Sweet 16 GOY - Baylor
Brandon Lang
10 Dime - Duke
Stephen Nover
100 Dime - Baylor
Bobby Maxwell
500 Units - Purdue
100 Units - Baylor
Chuck O'Brien
25 Dime - Michigan St.
15 Dime - Baylor
Chris Jordan
200♦ - N. Iowa
200♦ - St. Mary's
200♦ - Ohio St
Anthony Redd
20 Dime - Ohio State
20 Dime - Baylor
20 Dime - Northern Iowa
10 Dime - Purdue
Karl Garrett
20 Dime - Northern Iowa
Michael Cannon
40 Dime - Tennessee
Jay McNeil
100 Dime - St. Mary's
John Fina
Purdue