Jimmy Boyd
3* Friday Night NBA Blowout on Suns -10.5
The Suns have plenty of motivation to run up the score on the Knicks tonight. First off, they are fighting for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference so they can get home court in the first round of the playoffs. Secondly, they will be out for blood here after getting crushed by a score of 99-126 at New York the last time these two teams met. Having not played since Monday, I expect the Suns to be very fresh and energetic this evening. Plus, plays on favorites of 10 or more points, after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent that has gone under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, are 25-5 ATS since 1996 and 13-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in these spots have been favored by 12.2 points on average and are winning by an average of 17.9. Take the Suns.
5* Friday Sweet 16 *BEST BET* on Michigan State pk
I know Michigan State is without Kalin Lucas, and Chris Allen and Delvon Roe are banged up, but this is still a big, physical, squad that has been here and done that before. And this squad is playing for a coach that has been here and done that a lot. Northern Iowa is a good basketball team, but the fact that it relies so heavily on perimeter scoring will finally catch up with the Panthers tonight. Expect the Spartans to kill the Panthers on the boards. Michigan State is 10-1 ATS when playing away from home after a game where it outrebounding an opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons. I've grabbed the Spartans at a pick, but they opened as a 1.5-point favorite and are still a 1-point fave at many books. The fact that they opened as a fave could prove to be quite crucial as they are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or less points and 21-6-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less period. The Panthers started to really pee down their legs when Kansas started pressuring them late in the game. Expect coach Izzo to take note of that and apply the pressure much sooner. Also, expect the Spartans to really look to hammer the ball inside to take advantage of their physical bodies. We'll pound Michigan State.
4* Major Sweet 16 Perfect Angle Power Play on Baylor -4.5
Look for the length and athleticism of Baylor to be too much for Saint Mary's tonight. The key to beating Saint Mary's is keeping Omar Samhan in check, and I believe Baylor's long and athletic front line guys will be able to do just that. Saint Mary's is a team that can hurt its opponents with the 3-point shot, but Baylor has really excelled against these type of teams. In fact, Baylor is on a 7-0 ATS run vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams making 41% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Gaels, meanwhile, are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog. With this one being played in Houston, Texas, the Bears will have the support of the crowd as well. We'll lay the points with Baylor.
Matt Dennehy
3* N.Iowa ML +110
1* N.Iowa/Mich St Under 122
2* Atlanta -5
Rocketman
3* Orlando -14.5
Wunderdog
Tennessee vs. Ohio State
3 Units Tennessee +4.5
4 Units OVER 134
St. Mary's vs. Baylor
3 Units Baylor -4
Northern Iowa vs. Michigan State
5 Units Northern Iowa +1
4 Units UNDER 122
Purdue vs. Duke
4 Units Duke -8.5
Billy Coleman
4* LA Lakers -1.5
4* Purdue +8.5
3* Mich St -1
David Malinsky
4* BOSTON/SACRAMENTO UNDER 197
To say that the Sacramento Kings are a much easier team to guard without Tyreke Evans on the floor would be one of the major understatements of the NBA season. Except that the markets are not pricing that impact properly at all - in the last three games without him the Kings played 3-0 to the Under, by a collective 55 points from the projected Totals. We call for more of the same here, in a game in which both the underdog and the favorite bring the right game plans for our purposes.
There is only one way for Sacramento to hang around on the road against a quality opponent without Evans – slow the game down as much as possible, and hope to keep it close until the latter stages. And while many times the chalk would be looking to force the Kings out of that tempo, it suits Doc Rivers just fine. This is a classic MTG (“Manage the Game”) setting for Rivers, who needs to get a win (the Celtics are tied with Atlanta for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference), but nothing more than that. So off of a recent grueling stretch that included that Houston/Dallas/Utah road cycle, followed by Wednesday’s revenge home showdown vs. the Nuggets, and with four straight against winning opponents coming up, the focus is merely to get the ‘W’ and move on, taxing the legs of the key cogs as little as possible.
Rivers is a master at this. Since January 1st Boston has gone 4-1 to the Under laying double figures at home, the only Over coming in a game that the Celtics lost outright, and were unable to manage the pace. They are tied for #2 on our best defensive ratings, and can completely shut down the limited arsenal that Sacramento brings, all the while being in no hurry at all on offense, simply taking care of business and saving energy for Sunday night’s nationally televised showcase vs. San Antonio.
Erin Rynning
20* Knicks/Suns Under 225.5
Toronto +5
Teddy Covers
Nuggets
Bucks
Tim Trushel
Ohio State Over
LA Lakers Under
National Sorts Service
4* Tennessee +4.5
3* N. Iowa +1.5
3* Purdue +8.5
BIG AL
4* Baylor
3* Mich state
3* 76ers
Craig Davis
50 Dime - Baylor
20 Dime - Purdue
ATS Lock Club
10 Units Baylor -4.5
4 Units OSU -4.5
4 Units Heat +3
4 Units Jazz -5
King Creole
2* Northern Iowa +1 vs Michigan St.
The Panther are as HOT as any team left in the NCAA Tourney. They BREEZED thru their Missouri Valley Conference Tournament with 3 straight FAVORITE wins and covers. They slammed the door against UNLV in the opening round of the Big Dance, and pulled off the shocker of the Tourney with the elimination of the #1 SEED in the entire Tournament (Kansas). It's been no cakewalk meanwhile for the Spartans of Michigan State. They barely got by New Mexico State in the Round One, winning by only 3 points as DOUBLE-DIGIT favorites, And their Round Two win over Maryland (by only 2 points) was very fortunate considering they were DOWN by double-digits with 3 minutes to go in the game.
1-7 ATS: All NCAA Tourney ROUND THREE favorites of 3 < points playing off a SU underdog win (Mich St).
1-5 ATS: All NCAA Tourney ROUND THREE favs of 7 < points playing off a SU~ win of 2 or less points (Mich St).
0-4 ATS: All NCAA Tourney ROUND THREE favorites for a #5 or worse SEED (Mich St) when playing a HIGHER Seed (N IOWA).
1-6 ATS: All NCAA Tourney teams playing off a SU underdog win in which they scored AND allowed 80 or more points (Mich St).
6-1 ATS: All NCAA Tourney dogs playing off a SU win against a #1 SEED (N IOWA beat Kansas last Saturday)... in Rounds 1, 2 , 3 , or 4. These teams are 5-0 ATS if playing off a DOG win (N IOWA).
6-1 ATS: All NCAA Tourney ROUND THREE teams playing off BB SU and ATS wins in which they scored < 70 points in each game (N IOWA).
7-1 ATS: All NCAA Tourney teams playing off BB SU AND ATS wins of 4 < points each (N IOWA).
4-0 ATS: All NCAA Tourney ROUND THREE teams who were Conference Tourney Champs... and went a PERFECT 3-0 SU and ATS as favorites in that Tourney (N IOWA).
Marty Otto
20* Baylor -4.5