Insider Sports Report
4* Harvard -8½
3* Wisconsin-Milwaukee Pk
3* Denver Nuggets -11½
Sportsbetsnow
3 Units Lakers -3.5
3 Units Pacers/Nuggets Over 218
3 units NC Greensboro +2.5
Bobby Maxwell
400 Units Loyola-Maryland -2
100 Units Orlando Magic -10
Karl Garrett
20 Units Indiana State +6
10 Units Golden State +13
Michael Cannon
20 Units Wisconsin Green Bay +1
10 Units Loyola Marymount -9.5
Stephen Nover
20 Units Towson +2
15 Units Oklahoma City -5
Craig Davis
20 Dime – THUNDER
10 Dime – PACERS
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - Okay, so they got their doors blown off a few nights ago in Denver. It was bound to happen. Think about it... a young team that struggled to get to double-digit wins last year is now a playoff contender in the Western Conference the following year?? And they've been playing incredible basketball since the All-Star Break, beating the Mavericks right out of the gates and winning six of their last nine to start their post-All Star break season. I think the beating they took in Denver only makes them hungrier tonight. I'll admit, I follow this team as much as I follow the Mavericks, and I've noticed they are really starting to play as a team, even though Kevin Durant is clearly their star. The great thing about Durant, though, is that he doesn't act like it. He's the ultimate players' player, trying to get everyone involved on every possession, he's not afraid to play defense, and he loves to rebound.
And playing in Oklahoma City... it's not like there's a bunch these players can do to get in trouble. They hang out a lot together and I think that makes them play more like a team than just about any franchise in the NBA. This team is usually about as focused as you could expect them to be on game day, but for some reason either the thin air got to them or they simply lost focus... because this wasn't the same group we've seen much of the season. Denver had their way with OKC and took a 9-point halftime lead and turned it into a 30-point win. The great part about getting blown out is that the starters got to sit on the bench and watch the fourth quarter. Nothing more refreshing than getting some rest up in the mountains... which leads me to believe they will be fresh and ready to get that focus back tonight.
Oklahoma City has won the last two times it visited the Clippers, including once by 40 points last year. The Thunder also feel they owe the Clippers for an early season loss in Oklahoma City, 101-93, in which the Thunder shot just 38% from the field and converted just 3 of 20 from three-point land. The Clips shot 48% from the field and Baron Davis scored 24 points... when's the last time that happened?? The bottom line is, as well as the Clippers have played at home recently, they are running into the wrong team at the wrong time. Thunder by 10.
INDIANA PACERS - I'll admit, this play is more against Denver than it is for Indiana. But here's the way I see it... Denver just slaughtered playoff-bound Oklahoma City by 30. Indiana has been routed by the Lakers and Trail Blazers in back-to-back games. The Nuggets have Portland coming in in two days... the same Blazers team that whipped the Nuggets the last time they played. The simple analysis here is: I know Indiana sucks. I know Denver is likely to be the 2 or 3 seed in the Western Conference. But how often do we see the better team NOT cover the number?? It happens all the time and I feel this is a spot for it to happen again. Indiana has nothing to lose, especially after taking back-to-back beatings, and I feel they'll play looser and more comfortable without pressure. Denver, on the other hand, will look at this as a sandwich game and I just don't see how they'll take the Pacers seriously. It might look ugly early, but in the end the Pacers will get this thing to single digits and get inside the double-digit Vegas line.
Las Vegas Sports Advisors
5* New Jersey -110
5* Chicago -155
LARRY NESS
8* DUQUESNE -20
8* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH -16
8* CREIGHTON -3.5
BEN BURNS
NON-CONFERENCE BEST BET - CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +3.5
SHOCKER GAME OF THE MONTH - NEW JERSEY NETS +10
BLUE CHIP - DELAWARE/VCU UNDER 140
PERSONAL FAVORITE - CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
KB Hoops
5* Loyola Maryland -2 *POD*
4* Wisc Milw +1.5
3* Wisc GB +1.5
3* Akron -3
3* Creighton -3.5
Will Cover
4* Wisc. Mil +1
3* Ind. St. +6
Chris Jordan
600 Units Canisius -11.5
Seabass
50* Towson
50* VCU Under
50* Bradley Under
DAVID MALINSKY
4* CHARLOTTE/L.A. LAKERS UNDER
Two of the best defenses in the NBA both check in off of uncharacteristically bad performances, which means a much sharper focus here. And with some other key factors in play we have excellent value for this setting.
The Lakers were embarrassed defensively at Miami last night. They allowed the Heat to score at last(least) 25 points in three of the four quarters, and then 15 more in the O.T. period, allowing 52.5 percent shooting. Five different Miami players scored at least 12 points, and Kobe Bryant summed it up succinctly - We just couldnt get a stop. For a team that is tied with Boston for #1 on our best set of defensive ratings it means a lot of pride taking the court tonight, and they are capable of locking down a struggling Charlotte offense that has only scored more than 94 points one time in the last 10 games. But at the same time there are some weary Los Angeles legs that can impact have an impact on their perimeter shooting, keyed by Bryant going 45 minutes last night.
Meanwhile Charlotte is off of a similar embarrassment, allowing 104 points on 53.5 percent shooting at Boston on Wednesday, with the Celtics knocking down 10-16 triples and dishing out 27 assists. That is a slap in the face for a team that rates #5 on our best defensive ratings, and there is no fear about them being able to respond in their last two games on this court they held the Mavericks to 89 points and the Cavaliers to 93. In Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace they are among the few teams that can match up to Bryant (he was held to five points, on 2-12 shooting, on the west coast in the first meeting this season), and given the current struggles of his own offense, Larry Brown makes defense and tempo (Charlotte plays at the 27th slowest pace in the NBA) the cornerstones to his game plan.
Dave tried this Under when the teams last played in Los Angeles last month at a 5* level to take it in the ARSE in the final two possessions of the game when the lakers could have run the clock out but Farmar dunked the ball with 5 sec to go and charlotte hit a 3 at the buzzer to put the game over by 1 point !!
4* OKLAHOMA CITY over L.A. CLIPPERS
The Thunder might have played their worst game of the season at Denver on Wednesday night, falling behind by as many as 41 points before losing 119-90. But in terms of adjustments there is nothing to see there. It was a tired team having to deal with the altitude in a back-to-back setting, and their 8th game in 12 days, and the legs simply werent there. But instead of a downgrade a game like that can actually turn out to be a plus going forward. And here is why.
A night like that for a playoff contender can be a good thing because it means a chance for the starters to get some rest. No one was on the court for more than Kevin Durrants 26:36, so we can expect a positive physical energy when they take the court tonight. And from the standpoint of mental focus this one can be special. One of the keys to Oklahoma City developing so quickly is the chemistry and savvy that has developed on the court far beyond the years of experience of the roster, largely because the right pieces are in the right places. So look at how they have responded to defeats this season how about a sparkling 17-4 ATS, games in which they have beaten the pointspread by a collective 163.6 points. Now they bring a rare high level of focus against the downtrodden Clippers. Instead of it being a night to coast they bring the intensity to make up for Wednesdays ugly loss, and with only a game at Sacramento on deck Sunday, and then two more days off, there is absolutely no look-ahead. Having won their last 15 games against opponents with losing records, they have the discipline on the court to exploit the weaknesses that they will be up against.
The Clippers bring plenty of those weaknesses. This is just a make-shift group of impending free agents that will spend more time jockeying for individual statistics down the stretch than Team Ws, and they are ripe to be whipped by exactly the kind of sound fundamental play that the Thunder bring to the table.
4* LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT over PEPPERDINE
It was not surprising to see an early market trickle lower this one down to -9 across the board, as the failure to adjust to where Loyola-Marymount is now, as opposed to what some misleading full-season numbers will show. We took advantage to cash a 5* ticket behind the Lions at San Diego last Thursday, and while it was a sin of omission to not follow up at Saint Mary?s on Saturday, we can get back in play here.
As we noted last week, injuries took a toll during the Loyola regular season, with the top seven players in the rotation missing 37 games. But they are 8-2 SU with a starting lineup of Ashley Hamilton, Drew Viney, Kevin Young, Jarred DuBois and Vernon Teel, and note just how good they were down the stretch in a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS surge to close out the season, they beat the top three teams in the conference, Gonzaga, Portland and Saint Marys, by nine points over 165 floor minutes. That helped them to finish with 13 more wins than last season, the second best turnaround in the history of the program, and once can only wonder how good it would have been had they stayed healthy all season. Now they are a confident and hungry side, with the missing time from the key cogs actually bringing them in a little fresher than they ordinarily would be after 30 games (Teel and Young are the only ones that played in all 30).
Pepperdine There is not much to say here except that we find that classic example of a team that knows that they have no chance in this tournament, and fully expect to go home after one game. The Waves finished on a dismal 0-10 run in which nine of the losses came by 16 points or more, and the other was by eight vs. Santa Clara, a team that won only three W.C.C. games. They do not have a SR in the rotation, and produced one of the rare conference stat lines in which their opponents shot more than 10 full percentages points better than they did (47.9 vs. 37.3). Four times in the last eight games they could not even reach 50 points, including drubbings by 76-49 at Saint Marys and 65-48 at San Diego last weekend.
Since Loyola got everyone healthy in the last four games, the Lions have played the same schedule as Pepperdine Portland and Gonzaga at home, Saint Mary?s and San Diego on the road. Loyola won those games by a collective +12, while the Waves fell by -83. That is an average of 23.8 per game, which paints a much more proper portrait of this matchup than the current line does.