KELSO
25 Units Rockies -150
15 Units White Sox/Rays Under 8.5
5 Units Mets +105
Power Play Wins
Boston Celtics -3.5
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Orlando (+3.5) over Boston
Tony George
Boston -3.5
Forget the bumps and bruises, THIS IS A MUST WIN GAME AT HOME FOR BOSTON! They can bury this thing tonight at home, and they will not play shoddy and lose poise€. Boston gets back to basics tonight, they shoot well at home and at some point you throw out the stats and realize the Celtics have a bitter taste in their mouth after last games total meltdown, and they bring their A game and beat the Magic in the same building they buried Cleveland, the best team in the East in. Play 2 Units on Boston
Scott Rickenbach
8* Minnesota / Texas Over
With yesterday’s game going over the total in Minnesota (the Twins pounded the Yankees 8-2), the Twins big offensive surge at their new home park continues. Minnesota’s .286 batting average at home ranks 5th in the majors while their .372 on base percentage at home ranks 2nd in the majors. Their offense has proven tough to stop when at home and, after a very warm Friday with temperatures surging to near 90 degrees, look for the hot “home cooked” hitting to continue. The Rangers were off yesterday and they are 4-1 to the over this season when playing with a day off. The Twins are 5-1 to the over on Fridays this season. That means we’ve got a combined 9-2 (82%) trend supporting the over here. Of course, we have much more than just trends to work with here! The big key here comes down to this pitching match-up.
The Twins send Kevin Slowey to the mound Friday evening. The Minnesota right-hander was 10-3 last season but note the 4.86 ERA and the .309 BAA. This season, Slowey is 5-3 so far but he’s compiled a 4.53 ERA and has been pounded at a .304 clip. Simply put, Slowey is a very hittable pitcher and he also has proven unable to pitch deep into games this season. This will be his 10th start this season and only once this season has Slowey managed to complete six innings in any of his starts. Also, Slowey has allowed 46 hits in his last 31.2 innings of work. In other words, he’s been even more hittable since late April than he was in the first few weeks of the season. In his career, Slowey is 17-5 indoors with a 4.04 ERA and a .261 BAA. However, it’s a different story outdoors where Slowey has allowed opponents to his .302 against him while compiling a 4.74 ERA. Of course, of all pitchers, Slowey might prove to miss the Metrodome more than anyone else and he gets pounded in the warm evening air in Minneapolis in this one.
As for the Rangers pitching situation, they send Colby Lewis to the mound for this one. He’s been solid on the road this season but, other than a complete game shutout at Seattle, Lewis has averaged just 5.5 innings per road start. Also, other than that strong outing at Safeco Field, Lewis has walked 13 in his 22 innings of work away from home. The right-hander has proven tough to hit so far this season but 6 of his 9 starts have come against teams that are in the bottom 12 of the 30 MLB teams in terms of team batting average so far this season. Now Lewis must deal with a Twins team that has been knocking the cover off of the ball at home this season and note that Lewis gave up 5 earned runs in 6 innings in his only career start against the Twins. Lewis is only 6-11 on the road in his career and he’s compiled a 6.40 ERA away from home. We realize both these teams have respectable bullpens but we also realize that each of these starting pitchers is likely to get roughed up tonight and we’ve got a low total to work with here. Play OVER the total in Minnesota as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Nelly
1* Dodgers / Rockies Under 9.5
Coor's Field still owns a high-scoring reputation but just 9.3 runs per game have been scored in Colorado this season. Only 45 home runs have been hit at Coor's Field this season and the 'under' is 12-9 this year in Rockies home games. The Rockies have been a cold offensive team of late, hitting just .246 in the last ten games even though the team enters this game on a five-game winning streak. The 'under' is 9-2-1 in the last twelve games between these division rivals and this series opener should feature quality pitching. Jeff Francis has returned from injury with a vengeance as he has made two brilliant starts, allowing just one run in over 13 innings of work. Both games easily played 'under' and none of the last seven starts for Francis has played 'over'. Colorado has also featured one of the top bullpens in the National League with a 3.33 ERA. The Dodger lineup is weakened with Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez likely out of the lineup tonight and the Dodgers have scored four or fewer runs in five of the last seven games. Carlos Monasterios has made just one big league start in his career but in nearly 24 innings or work this season mainly as a reliever he has great numbers. Monasterios has a 1.90 ERA and though he will not be counted on for a deep start, he has proven capable of steady multiple inning efforts this season, never allowing more than a single run in any appearance including his lone start. The Dodgers are not a strong hitting team against left-handed pitching, batting just .244 for the year and with the Rockies failing to live up to expectations on offense so far this season another low scoring game should be in order. Look for the 'under' to be in position to win tonight with this inflated total.
King Creole
2* Boston Celtics
1* Under
5-0 ATS: All '3/6' (Round 3 / Game 6) home teams (CELTICS) playing off BB 'Overs' in a row.
14-1 ATS / 4-10 O/U: All NBA Playoff (any round / any game) home teams playing off BB Playoff 'Overs' in their last 2 games... and BB Playoff 'Unders' before that (CELTICS)... with an OU line of 192 points, these teams have gone 1-13-1 ATS....
8-1 ATS: All NBA Playoff GAME SIX teams who scored 92 points in their last game (Magic).
5-0-1 ATS / 1-5 O/U: All NBA Playoff GAME SIX home teams playing off a SU loss of 20 or more points (CELTICS).
6-0 ATS: All NBA Playoff ROUND THREE favorites playing off BB ATS losses in a row (CELTICS). Dating back to the 2001 season, these teams have gone 1-8 O/U.
13-1 ATS / 4-9-1 O/U: All EASTERN CONFERENCE Game 6 home teams (CELTICS) in Rounds 2 or 3 vs a fellow Conference opponent (Magic) when the OU line is 192 < points.
1-9 O/U: All EASTERN CONFERENCE Round 4 home favorites of -9 < points on a FRIDAY (CELTICS).
Al DeMarco
5 Dime Celtics
5 Dime Brewers
5 Dime Mariners
5 Dime Rockies -1.5
Anthony Redd
25 Dime Celtics/Magic Over
Matt Fargo
10* Magic +3.5
Andy Iskoe
Magic at Celtics
Pick: Under 189
Boston is in position to wrap up their series tonight after Orlando has won two straight to pull within 3-2. Game 5 produced the first truly high scoring contest in the series after the first 3 games stayed UNDER the Total and game 4 went OVER only because it went to overtime -- and then went over by just a half point! Prior to Orlando scoring 113 points in their 21 point win in game 5 neither team had scored more than 96 points in any of the 8 previous meetings. Boston's strength has been their defense and as this game reaches its latter stages look for both teams to play deliberately and for this game to stay UNDER the Total, following the pattern of the earlier games of the series.
Jeff Benton
20 DIME: Magic-Celtics UNDER
Pressure time, baby! Both these teams are under immense pressure tonight in what really amounts to a Game 7 for both teams. It’s a Game 7 for Orlando because, obviously, it is in a win-or-go-home situation (just like the last two games). And it’s a Game 7 for the Celtics because the last thing they want is to go back to Orlando for a real Game 7, having choked away a 3-0 series lead.
As we all know, when the pressure increases in a playoff series, defense usually carries the day. That’s because shooters tend to get stiff, nervous and/or reluctant to let their shot go, while the players ratchet up their level of intensity on the defensive end of the court.
Plus, let’s be honest, this has been a very defensive series anyway with a lot of poor shooting. You take away Orlando’s 36-for-69 (52.2 percent) effort in Wednesday’s 113-92 win, and these teams have shot a combined 43 percent in this series (251-for-584). And if you take away Orlando’s 113-point outburst in Game 5, and the teams have produced the following point totals: Boston – 92, 92 (in OT), 94, 95, 92; Orlando – 96 (in OT), 71, 92 and 88.
These teams stayed under the total in the first three games of this series before Game 4 barely nudged over the total by a single point (and that was the game that went into overtime). And prior to the last two contests, the under had cashed in 10 of the previous 11 Magic-Celtics meetings (including five straight in Boston), and this goes back to last year’s Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series when the final four contests stayed low.
More trends for you: The Magic are on “under” runs of 10-3 against winning teams, 9-4 as an underdog (all on the road), 7-1 as a short road underdog (less than five points), 37-14-1 when coming off a day of rest, 16-5 on Friday and 4-1-1 following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the under is 10-4 in Boston’s last 14 Conference Finals games and 10-3 in its last 13 versus winning teams.
Finally, these teams have now faced off nine times this season. In the first eight, the average combined point total was 177.4. And of those eight games, only one – a 96-94 contest in Orlando back on Jan. 28 – would have gotten over tonight’s total of 189 (and just barely).
Bottom line: As soon as Game 5 exploded with 205 combined points, I knew we’d see an inflated over/under number in Game 6. That’s exactly what has happened. I’m telling you, Game 5 was a fluke, guys (and so was Game 4, which went into overtime and still managed just 188 combined points). And I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see this contest played in the 80s on both sides.
Take it UNDER the total.
KELSO
10 Units Orlando Magic +3.5
Stan Liskowski
4* Celtics Under
3* Celtics
4* Reds
4* Mets
3* Tigers
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units San Diego -138
1 Unit NY Mets -102
1 Unit San Fran -129