Power Play Wins
Boston Celtics +1
Billy Coleman
3* Balt / Minn Under 8
James Patrick
Play: San Antonio (-6 -110)
Suns vs. Spurs 9:30 p.m. est. ESPN (Phoenix leads series 2-0)
The Spurs return home off a pair of losses at Phoenix to open this series and San Antonio is 21-7-1 ATS at home off a SU and ATS playoff loss, including 5-0 SU and ATS In Game Three of a series. San Antonio is a solid (26-16) ATS on their home court this season, (5-1) ATS in Friday contests and the home team is (5-1) ATS in the series. Home Teams with triple revenge, (three straight losses to an opponent), are (95-51) ATS for a solid (65.1 %) in winners and HC Greg Popovich is (222-185) ATS after (1) or more consecutive losses as HC of the San Antonio Spurs. Spurs get back into this series with home win here.
3* #720 San Antonio Spurs
The Gold Sheet
Play: Boston (+1 -110)
Boston has not been kind to Cleveland over the past few years. The Cavs are just 1-10 straight-up in last 11 visits to TD Garden. The injury to LeBron James' elbow has definitely affected his game, and although we expect him to play through it, it's another factor favoring the Celtics. Boston has turned its big three into a big four thus far in the postseason, with the arrival of point guard Rajon Rondo as a force. TAKE BOSTON
Chip Chirimbes
Play: N.Y. Yankees (ML +100)
TRACE ADAMS
500* - BOSTON CELTICS
They call Glen Davis the Big Baby? Maybe they should bestow that nickname on LeBron James, or at least call him the Drama King. I mean, I am sure the elbow hurts, but the degree in which they are talking about this is absolutely ridiculous.
Regardless, Cleveland really hasn't played all that well through the first 2 games at home, getting outplayed in 6 of the 8 quarters contested. I don't think things will change this evening on the road, as Boston has now wrested home court advantage away from the # 1 seed, and the extra days off are sure to benefit the older Celtics more than they benefit the Cavaliers.
The Celtics are a perfect 3-0 both straight up, and against the spread at home this postseason, and I expect the perfection to continue tonight.
Rajon Rondo has become an elite player, and it is clear the Cavaliers do not have an answer for him. I trusted Mo Williams to step up in Game 2 and deliver, and boy did he ever, shooting 1-for-9 from the floor. I am sorry, but I just don't trust the Cleveland supporting cast, and I sure don't expect LeBron to be at 100% this evening either.
Rasheed Wallace gave Doc Rivers and the Boston bench a big lift in Game 2, I am banking on another night going Sheed's way, as the "ball don't lie" and the C's take the 2-1 series lead.
500♦ - Boston Celtics
Nick Parsons
8* Cleveland Cavaliers -1
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:
Even though the Cav's won and covered in Game 1, Cleveland has had to play catch up through most of this series; I expect the Cav's to play their best game of this series tonight though.
Cleveland head coach Mike Brown: "For 48 minutes, we didn't play with a sense of urgency.
"Nothing is going to be given to us. We have to fight. If we expect to win this series, we need to bring more of a sense of urgency. We'll see what we're made of in Game 3."
Keep in mind that Cleveland is in fact 11-4 ATS its last 15 vs. Boston; also 7-3 ATS its last 10 on the road vs. the C's.
On the other side of the court: One of the biggest things that the Celtics have had to deal with all year is inconstancy and "letdowns"; I believe this team suffers both tonight.
Although both teams are banged up, the Celtics are more so and as this series continues, I believe this will be a factor for this club.
And this is a spot that Boston has struggled in all year long; 10-11 ATS as an underdog; 2-6 ATS when playing with three or more days of rest; 2-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog.
Bottom line: Expect Lebron's supporting cast to finally make an appearance tonight; look for CLEVELAND to improve to 9-5 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite and for Boston to fall to 9-17 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more; *8* "ULTIMATE SHOWDOWN" CAVALIERS
Jeff Benton
20 Dime: SAN ANTONIO SPURS
5 Dime: CINCINNATI REDS
Spurs
I got burned by going against Phoenix in Game 2. But that’s not stopping me from doing the exact same thing in Game 3. The fact of the matter is the San Antonio outplayed the Suns in many respects on Wednesday, with one big exception: The Spurs were whistled for a ridiculous 31 fouls – hardly a surprise when you realize that old-man Joey Crawford was one of the whistle-wielders, and he’s the biggest “homer” ref in the NBA. Those 31 Spurs fouls contributed to 37 free throws for the Suns (29 of which they made). By comparison, San Antonio got to the foul line just 22 times (making just 15).
It doesn’t take a math wizard to see that the Suns outscored the Spurs by 14 points at the charity stripe, which is how you win a game by eight points when you get outshot 50.6 percent to 42.4 percent. And it wasn’t just the number of fouls that killed the Spurs in Game 2, it was who accumulated them and when. Get this: Tim Duncan picked up his fourth foul with 9½ minutes to play in the third quarter, forcing him to the bench for an extended stretch when he otherwise would’ve been on the court (he finished with five fouls); George Hill, who had strong shooting night, fouled out; and Manu Ginobili (who went just 2-for-8 from the field) was tagged with five fouls.
Suffice it say, with San Antonio back in its own building tonight, there’s no doubt in my mind that the shoe will be on the other foot tonight and the Spurs will be the beneficiaries of some hometown calls. Regardless, you KNOW the Spurs’ crowd will be well-lathered tonight, just as they were in helping their team to three victories over the Mavericks in the opening round.
Yes, Phoenix has now won three straight against San Antonio by margins of 11, 9 and 8 points. However, all three of those games were played in the desert. In fact, the home team has held serve in this rivalry in six straight meetings (going 5-1 ATS). Also, get this: These teams squared off in the postseason in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2008. And in all four series, the Spurs took Game 3 – including three double-digit wins – en route to winning the series.
Despite failing to cover in the first two games, the Spurs are on still ATS runs of 12-3-1 as a favorite, 14-6 in this price range (5 to 10½ points) and an impressive 21-6-3 as a favorite in the playoffs.
Bottom line: I still believe the Spurs are the better team in this series, and after falling apart in the fourth quarter in Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix, I expect San Antonio – guided by veteran leaders like Duncan, Parker and Ginobili – to play a full 48 minutes tonight and play with more passion and intensity than they have in any game this postseason.
The Spurs get back in this series by winning and winning BIG, something in the neighborhood of 113-91. Lay the chalk with complete and total confidence.
Reds
The Chicago Cubs are coming off a series in Pittsburgh where they got swept by the lowly Pirates and scored a grand total of 5 runs in the process, including last night’s ugly 11-1 loss. The same Pirates who in their previous home series got swept by the Brewers and outscored 36-1.
Think about that: Facing two division rivals at home, the Pirates got dumped 36-1 in one three-game series, but swept the other one by a combined score of 18-5.
If that doesn’t tell you what a disaster the Cubs are, I don’t know what would. And the reason Chicago is struggling is it can’t hit. Their #3 and #4 hitters – Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez – are batting .217 and .148, respectively. In the Pirates’ series, Ramirez went 1-for-11; Lee was 2-for-11. And if you take last week’s four-game series at Wrigley Field – where the wind was howling out to left and center field which contributed greatly to scores of 13-5, 11-5, 7-5 and 10-5 – here are the Cubs’ recent run totals: 1, 2, 2, 2, 1. In fact, Chicago has tallied four runs or fewer in 15 of 29 games, scoring three runs or fewer 13 times.
As for the Reds, they’ve been playing decent ball, winning seven of their last 10 games, including taking two of three against the surging Mets this week, with both wins coming in walk-off fashion in extra innings. That’s been a trend this year for Cincinnati, which has had a flair for the dramatic with nine of its 13 wins coming in its final at-bat. That includes two wins over the Cubs in a season-opening series in Cincinnati last month.
Regarding the pitching matchup tonight, I know the stats show the edge goes to Carlos Silva (2-0, 2.90 ERA) over Homer Bailey (0-1, 6.04). But those numbers are skewed a bit because it’s still early in the season. There’s little chance Bailey’s ERA will stay north of 5.00, let alone 6.00. And there’s NO chance Silva (5-18, 6.81 ERA last two years with Seattle) is a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. He’s going to have a correction, and we started to see it in his last start Saturday when he gave up five runs in five innings to Arizona.
The Reds are 6-2 in Bailey’s last eight starts, 5-0 in his last five at home and they’ve won both of his career home outings against Chicago, including that 5-4 win on April 9 when Bailey also matched up against Silva. Dirt cheap price on Cincy here!
Dwayne Bryant
Cleveland Cavaliers -1
Some teams just step up after a loss. Cleveland is one of those teams. If you throw out the last few games of the regular season (when the Cavs already had the #1 seed locked up), Cleveland only lost back-to-back games THREE times all season, including the playoffs. And one of those three instances occured in the first two games of the season. Suffice it to say that Cleveland knows how to bounce back from defeat.
But Cleveland wasn't just defeated in their last game; they were completely embarrassed on their home floor by these Celtics, 104-86. Cleveland's past performance suggests we can expect a bounce-back by King James & company tonight. The Cavs are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
These teams have had three days to rest up and get ready for yet another physical game. If you read game previews and listen to sports talk on TV or radio, then you hear about how much both teams needed these three days off and how it will help both teams. But truth be told, only one of these teams performs well when coming off a long layoff. The Cavaliers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Conversely, the Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Looks like the time off may help both teams heal, but it's clearly the Cavs who play better in this situation.
Bottom line: The Cavaliers are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. Cleveland is coming off a game in which they were embarrassed on their home court and have now lost the home court advantage in this series. The Cavs play much better than Boston on a 3 or more day layoff, and they've shown a penchant for bouncing back off a loss. LeBron will be on a major mission tonight and that mission is to take back the home court advantage and regain control of this series. Past history tells me it's not too wise to bet against the Cavs in this situation. I'll take Cleveland tonight.
Rocketman
4* Florida Marlins
Florida is 50-29 last 3 years on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Florida is scoring 5.4 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Washington is scoring 3.9 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Craig Stammen has a whopping 6.75 ERA overall this year. Florida is 28-10 overall vs Washington the past 3 years. Stammen is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA overall vs Florida since 1997. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League East. Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Marlins are 10-4 in their last 14 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Marlins are 13-6 in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Marlins are 5-1 in Volstads last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Nationals are 21-43 in their last 64 Friday games. Nationals are 18-45 in their last 63 during game 1 of a series. Nationals are 15-43 in their last 58 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Nationals are 2-7 in their last 9 games following a win. Nationals are 5-2 in Stammens last 7 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Nationals are 5-2 in Stammens last 7 home starts. Nationals are 0-8 in Stammens last 8 starts with 5 days of rest. Marlins are 30-10 in the last 40 meetings. We'll play Florida for 4 units tonight!
Lenny Del Genio
NBA Bailout - Spurs -6.5
The Spurs are in trouble after dropping the first two games in this series. Tonight they’re back home in a must win game. Can they find a way to slow down the Suns? On Wednesday the Spurs played pretty well. They hit 50% of their shots to the Suns 42% and only made two less 3-pointers than Phoenix. However, the Spurs were homered by the refs as they were outscored from the free throw line by 14 points. Phoenix shot 37 free throws making 29, while the Spurs attempted only 22 freebies hitting just 15. We look for the refs to be a bit more neutral here in San Antonio. If the Spurs can keep the Suns off the free throw line they should have a chance to get this one tonight. The Spurs need to get a good game out of Ginobili tonight. In Game 2 he was only 2-8 shooting and scored 11 points. Look for him to have a big game tonight. They also need to shut down Frye who hit the Spurs for 5 of 6 three point shots Wednesday night. Look for Pop to have his team ready to go tonight.
Evan Altemus
3 Units Spurs -6.5
Anyone who watched Game 2 of the series between the Spurs and Suns noticed that Phoenix’s role and bench players were the key to that win. Phoenix was able to pull away from San Antonio in the 4th quarter with Steve Nash on the bench. Those players were able to step up because of the home crowd back-up. In Game 3 the Spurs will be very fired up and are in a must win situation. In addition, those other players for Phoenix will have a harder time stepping up without the motivation of the home crowd. San Antonio shows that they have the ability to beat Phoenix by this margin with the leads they had in Game 2. The Suns aren’t vastly better than the Spurs either, and this situation screams the Spurs. I also think it’s interesting that Suns player, Jared Dudley, said in his post game interview that Phoenix will go and try to steal a game in San Antonio. I don’t like that attitude in a team I’m looking to back. That means most of the team has a similar attitude that they will just try and win a game in San Antonio, but if they don’t oh well because they still have home court advantage. This spread is high, but it should be noted that sharp money bet it up a full point from 5.5 to 6.5. I think San Antonio will win this game by double digits and get the cover.
Trace Adams
1000* San Antonio
500* Boston Celtics
500* Philadelphia Phillies
Dr Bob
2* Cleveland -1
Tim Trushel
20* NY Mets Under
Seattle Mariners