Street Rosenthal
*200 Boston Red Sox -142
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Phoenix -6
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Riding high on emotion with the return of Brandon Roy, and taking advantage of a rare poor shooting night.
Portland was able to slow down Game 4 in front of the home town crowd and dominated the offensive boards; however I believe this team will suffer a letdown away from friendly confines and against a desperate Suns team.
Keep in mind, that not only are the Blazers just 2-11 SU their last 13 on the road vs. the Suns, but they're also just 4-5 ATS as a road dog of 3 1/2 to 6 points (9-17 ATS in the same position over the last two years).
On the other side of the court: Phoenix knows how big this home game is; “It’s a big game, maybe the game of the year for us,” Amare Stoudemire said.
I'm not reading to much into the Game 4 results and expect the veteran laden Suns to make the necessary adjustments in this one; to control the tempo of the game; to push the ball at every given opportunity; and to most importantly knock down the open looks when presented to them.
Phoenix is 5-2 ATS its last seven overall; 5-1 ATS its last six at US Airways Center; 7-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points.
Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one; when taking into account the strong ATS trends each team exhibits in this position, along with the home court advantage, *10* Western Conference "GAME OF THE WEEK" on the SUNS!
BOB BALFE
Charlotte +4
Charlotte has played great at home this season and are refusing to let the Magic walk all over them in this series. Orlando is the better team, but on any given night, can have problems if Howard gets into foul trouble and/or if the three pointers are not falling. The Bobcats played well last game and should get over the hump for a win today.
Tony George
Orlando -4
Charlotte has not really scared the Magic in this series, they are getting pounded on the boards, beaten in FG% and simply put, Orlando has vastly more talent on the floor. The perimeter defense of the Bobcats has left Nelson and Carter up top for open looks, 42 points in production alone last game. Howard held Theo Ratliff to 2 points on the low post, and Charlotte simply does not match up well in this one and have failed to cover 6 out of their last 8 games. Really like Orlando to close it out on the road here and get some rest and healing time for round 2 of the playoffs. If Orlando shows up, and word is they will, they should put it away tonight by 6-9 points. Play 1 Unit on Orlando.
Lenny Del Genio
Atlanta +110
The Braves wasted a good pitching performance last night losing a rain shortened game to the Mets 1-0. That was the Braves fifth straight loss. The Cards are home after a six game road trip, splitting the six games. Hudson gets the start tonight for the Braves and he opposes Lohse. Big EDGE here for the Braves as Hudson has a sharp 2.89 ERA in his three starts while Lohse hasn’t been able to get anyone out with a 7.31 ERA. The Braves are going to break out of their slump one of these nights and tonight should be the night against the Cards Lohse. Play on Atlanta.
Marc Lawrence
Phoenix -6
The Suns return home to host the Trailblazers in Game Five of this opening round playoff series they will do so knowing that home teams in the NBA playoffs, off a SU road favorite loss of seven or more points, are a nifty 17-9-1 ATS winning proposition since 1990. That's just the tip of the iceberg for Portland, though, as our database tells us to: Play On any any non-division home favorite of four or more points in the playoffs off a SU road favorite loss in which they scored less than 90 points and lost the game by 18 or fewer points. That's because these teams are 26-0 SU and 22-2-2 ATS in this role this decade. With that, look for the Suns to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS at home against teams off a SU underdog win this season here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Phoenix.
Evan Altemus
3 Units Milwaukee +1.5
Milwaukee completely outplayed Atlanta in game 3, and it wasn’t even close. The Bucks were in control throughout and shot better, played better defense, and were better from the free throw line. Atlanta, despite having some playoff experience, still is a relatively young team and does not play well on the road. Milwaukee came with an attitude, while Atlanta looked like they could care less. The Bucks are a decent team mixed with veterans and good young players. I expect this game to be much close than game 3, but it’s obviously that the Hawks just aren’t motivated to play in Milwaukee when they know they can beat them at home. Look for the Bucks to get another home win and even the series.
Dwayne Bryant
Tigers +125
Mike Lineback
Charlotte +4.5 -120 (.5 pt buy)
Much like a believed Miami would get a "W" at home before series ended, I believe Charlotte will do the same vs. Orlando. Defense isn't a problem for the Bobcats, and it doesn't hurt that they can frustrate Howard with 18 fouls (Ratliff, Mohammed & Chandler). It's the offensive side of the ball, head coach Larry Brown hopes to improve on tonight. Coach & team will stress moving the ball and attacking the basket, the formula that worked best for them during the regular season. Charlotte should of won G#3, but they settled for too many jump-shots, especially after Howard fouled out. I'm expecting Charlotte to leave it all out on the floor tonight. If anything, the Bobcats, led by owner Michael Jordan, head coach Brown, & fierce competitors Jackson & Wallace, have the competitive will to take this game down to the wire. We're predicting an upset. Take the points.
The Duke's Sports
Atlanta Over (189) for 3.5 Units
This series is now 10-1 O/U in its last 11 meetings, and based on the line, or the lack of adjustment on it, we're staying "over" here. Consider this: the last five games in this series at Milwaukee amounted to a score outputs of 217, 218, 193, 200, and 196, respectively; therefore, we receive a bucket of 'total" value; furthermore, considering that on Saturday the Bucks held Atlanta to just 39% shooting yet the 'total" (188') cleared by 7 points! Tonight, the odds of Milwaukee holding the high flying Hawks, who have averaged nearly 97 ppg on the road during the regular season, to under 90 points would be long; after all, the Hawks were missing shots on Saturday that they normally convert. What's more, the Hawks' defense on the road leaves much to be desired. The Bucks are a perfect 5-0 O/U at home vs a team with a losing road record while the Hawks are a perfect 7-0 O/U off a SU loss of more than 10 points. Points a-plenty tonight.
AL DEMARCO
15 DIME Phoenix and Boston 2 TEAM TEASER (tomorrow)
5 DIME Chicago Cubs RLANTHONY REDD
40 DIME Charlotte Bobcats
5 DIME SD PadresBOBBY MAXWELL
300 UNIT Atlanta Hawks
100 UNIT Portland Trail BlazersCHRIS JORDAN
200 UNIT Chicago Cubs RL
100 UNIT Atlanta HawksCHUCK O'BRIEN
10 DIME Charlotte Bobcats
5 DIME Atlanta HawksDEREK MANCINI
20 DIME Atlanta Hawks
5 DIME CHECKING THIS ON TOO.KARL GARRETT
20 DIME I AM CHECKING THIS ONE
10 DIME LA Angels RLMICHAEL CANNON
20 DIME Charlotte Bobcats
15 DIME SL CardinalsSTEPHEN NOVER
60 DIME Atlanta Hawks
Some of the above are incorrect, here are the confirmed plays.
Al DeMarco: 15 dime teaser on the Phoenix and Boston (tomorrow) + 5 dime on RUN line Cubs
Anthony Redd: 40 Dime Play - Bobcats + 5 Dime Play - Padres
Bobby Maxwell: 300 units on the Hawks + 100 units on the Trail Blazers
Chris Jordan: 200 units on RUN line Cubs + 100 units on the Hawks
Chuck O'Brien: 25 dime on the Hawks
Derek Mancini: 10 dime on the Bobcats + 5 dime on the Hawks
Karl Garrett: 20 dime on the Hawks + 10 dime on the RUN line Angels
Michael Cannon: 20 dime on the Bobcats + 15 dime on the Cardinals
Stephen Nover: 60 dime on the Hawks
Lenny Del Genio
3* PHX
3* SFG
2* Braves
2* RSox
2* LAD
Executive
250% Portland
Don Wallace Sports
4* Phoenix -7
JB Sports
2* Phoenix -6