Jeff Benton
Duke
I’m not going to lie to you: I looked long and hard for reasons to back Butler, as I believe the Bulldogs winning it all would be absolutely tremendous for the sport of college basketball. And it’s no secret that I’ve made some money off Butler in this Tournament. But while I really wanted to roll with the underdog that’s won 25 games in a row, I just couldn’t. I couldn’t simply because this matchup against Duke is a terrible one for the Bulldogs.
See, Butler has manhandled teams defensively in the Big Dance, allowing 59, 52, 59, 56 and 50 points. And going back to the regular season, the Bulldogs have held 12 of their last 13 opponents to 59 points or less. You know the old cliché “winning with defense”? That’s exactly what Butler has done, not only in the Tournament but throughout the regular season.
Problem is, you cannot defeat this year’s Duke team unless you can score the basketball. The Blue Devils are averaging 77.4 ppg on the season and 73.4 ppg in this Tournament, scoring 73, 68, 70, 78 and 78 points in their five wins. On Saturday, against a West Virginia team that had held six of its previous seven opponents under 60 points, Duke put up 78 points, shot 52.7 percent overall and 52 percent from three-point land (13-for-25). The Blue Devils’ big three of Kyle Singler (21 points), Jon Scheyer (23) and Nolan Smith (19) combined for 63 of the team’s 78 points, and Duke had 20 assists on its 29 made field goals.
Further proving my point that it’s going to be next to impossible for Butler to hold yet another opponent under 60 points, consider this: Only two teams have kept the Blue Devils under 64 points all season: Virginia and Clemson. And guess what? Duke won BOTH of those games in double-digit fashion (57-46 over Virginia; 60-47 over Clemson). And that brings me to my next point: As great as Butler has been defensively all year, Duke has been JUST as good.
With the exception of the 78-71 win over Baylor – which has a deep roster of gifted inside and outside scorers – Duke held its other four Tournament opponents 44, 53, 57 and 57 points. And if you go back to Feb. 10, the Blue Devils have limited 11 of their last 16 foes to 57 points or less.
That means Butler is in BIG trouble tonight, because the Bulldogs are in a massive scoring slump. Get this: In the Tournament, Butler is shooting just 39.7 percent from the field and averaging exactly a dozen two-point field goals per game – meaning only 24 of their points per contest have come the traditional way. So Butler – which hasn’t tallied more than 63 points since an opening-round 77-59 rout of UTEP – has been surviving because of the three-point shot. Well, guess what team has the second-best three-point defense in the nation, holding opponents to just 28.1 percent shooting from beyond the arc? Yep, Duke.
Another reason why the Bulldogs have gotten this far has been free-throw shooting. Butler has outscored its five Big Dance foes by more than 7 ppg from the charity stripe. Well, the Blue Devils are the sixth-best free-throw shooting team in the country at 76.1 percent, and they’ve been just as solid (nearly 75 percent) in this Tournament. (By comparison, Butler has shot 67 percent from the foul line in the Tournament, down from 73.8 percent in the regular season).
Finally, Butler has also survived this long because of its ability to control the glass, especially when opponents miss their shots. However, that skill will be put to the test tonight because Duke is the best offensive rebounding team in the Big Dance – against West Virginia, the Devils had 19 second-chance points, and it was second-chance points that allowed them to rally from a six-point deficit in the final six minutes in the Elite Eight win over Baylor. In fact, while Butler has been out-boarded in the Big Dance (31.8 to 27.8), the Blue Devils have AVERAGED more than 10 rebounds per game more than their victims!
Bottom line: Everything Butler does well, Duke does just as well or maybe a little bit better. And everything the Bulldogs have struggled with (namely scoring), Duke excels at. Again, this is just a bad, bad matchup for Butler.
In the end, even though I’ll go to my grave claiming Duke is far from the BEST basketball team in the nation this year, they’ve taken advantage of a fairly easy road to get to this point, some advantageous matchups and some huge upsets that kept the Blue Devils from having to face opponents (namely Kentucky, Syracuse and Kansas) that would’ve given them major problems.
Congrats to Butler for getting this far, but kudos to the Blue Devils for getting the job done. Duke’s average margin of victory in this Tournament has been exactly 17 ppg, and that’s exactly the margin I see in this one: Duke 72, Butler 55.
Craig Davis
75 Dime - Butler
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
6* Minnesota +120
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors.
Manager Ron Gardenhire on tonight's starter, Scott Baker; "He's confident in his own ability now," Gardenhire said. "This is good for him. He deserves it. He's a workhorse. He's going to give us 200 innings and give us a chance to win every night. That's all you can ask."
Minnesota re-signed Joe Mauer and added Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome.
Mauer hit .365 with 28 home runs and 96 RBI's and won his second Gold Glove and his third AL batting title and first MVP award.
In the other dugout: Jered Weaver lost his only previous opening day start in 2008 at Minnesota. He’s 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA in six career starts against the Twins, and Mauer is 6 for 15 with two doubles against him.
Bottom line: I expect the bats of Minnesota to be the difference here as the TWINS do just enough to sneak a victory tonight!
Tony George
Duke -7
Opened up 6 and going up for a reason. Duke the better team by far. With Howard not 100% and Butlers story not quite Cinderella, with a 25 game winning streak, but squeaking by in all their last 3 games will not fly against Duke, whom Butler will have NO answer inside and of they play the way they did against Michigan State, Duke can win by 15+ with ease. Coach K is experienced in big games and is going to out coach a 33 year old running a mid major program well, but not to the level of Duke, with depth, talent, outstanding defense and dominating performance against the Big East Champs where they slowly just destroyed them. Play 1 Unit on Duke.
Lenny Del Genio
Butler +7.5
Butler continued their magical run to the National Championship game with a 52-50 win over Michigan State, covering the 1.5-point number. Butler has won in a number of different fashions but if you look the box score you’ll find that they hit only 30% of their shots. However, the key to their victory was committing only eight turnovers while forcing Michigan State into 16 give-a-ways. Duke, on the other hand, didn’t have any trouble shooting in their win over W. VA as they hit 52% of their shots overall, including 13 of 25 from behind the 3-point line. The Sportsbooks aren’t giving Butler much of a chance as they have installed Duke as a whopping 7.5-point favorite. This is the most points the Bulldogs have been getting all season. The biggest dog they’ve been prior was in the third round of the tournament versus Syracuse when the Bulldogs were 6.5 point underdogs versus Syracuse. You know what happen in that game. Duke is playing their best basketball of the season and it doesn’t look like anybody is going to stop them. But it’s tough to give this gritty Butler team that many points. Duke wouldn’t hit all of their shots tonight. Play on Butler!
Marc Lawrence
Butler +7.5
A Cinderella season comes to a climax for the Bulldogs when they host the Blue Devils in what arguably be the strongest home court advantage in the history of college basketball Monday night in front of 70,000 crazed fans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Winning games at home behind head coach Brad Stevens has never been much of a problem for Butler as the Bulldogs are 42-2 SU in Indianapolis under his lead, with the two losses being by four and seven points. In addition, Stevens is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS as a dog of six or more points. On the flip side, Duke takes the court knowing they are 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS versus No. 5 seeds in this tourney. In addition, Duke is 0-2 SU and ATS as an NCAA tourney favorite in games in which the opponent owns a better win percentage. All of which leads us to a Super System from our powerful database that tells us to: Play On any team in the NCAA championship game if they own a better win percentage than their opponent if the foe is off four consecutive ATS wins in a row. That's because teams with a better record are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in this role the last 20 years, including 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 10 points. FYI: this is the identical role in which North Carolina defeated Michigan State in the title game last year. With Duke in off it's 'no-hit' win over West Virginia Saturday, and the last 13 teams in this tournament to take on Bob Huggins just 3-10 SU in their next contest, this is the kind of stuff in which upsets occur. Remember, Butler was a Top 10 ranked team in the pre-season polls and proceeded to go 33-4 this campaign. Look for the Bulldogs to pull off the 'miracle' here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Butler.
Dwayne Bryant
Butler +7.5
SPORTS UNLIMITED
5* Butler +7.5
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Butler
EXECUTIVE
250% Duke