Jimmy Boyd
3* Louisville -6
4* Charlotte / Portland Under 189.5
NHL Pro Picks
Buffalo +111
Anaheim +101
Fantasy Sports Gametime
50* Play Buffalo (+110) over Pittsburgh
TIM TRUSHEL
Washington Under
WAYNE ROOT
Vegas Legend - Louisville -6.5
Millionaire - Grizzlies +1.5
Billionaire - Ok St +2
Andre Gomes
MIA / MIL Over 189
Pace: 95.4 (18th of 30)
Offense: 103.3 (20th of 30)
Defense: 103.6 (12th of 30)
Miami
Pace: 91.5 (28th of 30)
Offense: 106.2 (11th of 30)
Defense: 105.3 (18th of 30)
This is a home-home series as both teams have played against each other last Saturday and so it's crucial for our analysis to understand what happened in that game and in what this contest will be different.
The Bucks have defeated the Heat 95-84 and at the break they were already leading 56-38 so we can say that they didn't have any problem to beat Miami. I was expecting such outcome as I had a play with the Bucks and in my write up I said the following: "Even though it was an easy game [against the Pistons], the Heat didn't have good news after the game, as PG Mario Chalmers got injured in the game and he is doubtful for tonight and even Wade and O'Neal are banged up for tonight's contest."
The letdown happened for the Heat as they ended the game by shooting only 37.2% from the field and 6-22 behind the arc - only 27.3%. Dwayne's Wade 6-20 (.300) shooting performance was his second worst of the season. To make things even worse, Wade was in foul trouble, picking up his fifth foul midway through the third quarter and going to the bench until returning with 7:22 remaining in the game. Miami has been a terrible team in back to backs as their offense simply disappears. Note that Wade is shooting 43.1% FG in b2b games vs. 46.6% for the season or/and Jermaine O'Neal is shooting 48.0% FG in b2b games vs. 54% for the season.
Bottom line, a relatively poor defensive team of the Bucks was able to hold the Heat to just 84 points and even after the game rookie Brandon Jennings praised the team defensive performance: ``I guess we got the `D-Wade stopper' on the team right now,'' - He was talking about Charlie Bell.
However let's see if the Bucks will be able to stop the Heat tonight as they have a better spot and usually they are a terrific offensive team coming of a loss. I remember that the Over is 8-1 in the Heat last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Dwayne Wade will be fired up tonight and even Michael Beasley might return to the court. The Bucks are a team that can score with some ease as they have a nice bench in Luke Ridnour, Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick or Jerry Stackhouse and if their starters aren't performing well, Scott Skiles won't hesitate in sending them to the bench. Bogut is on an offensive roll and the Heat will have some problems to stop him as well.
My projected line for this contest is a range of 192-195 points and in my opinion we have the proper edge to take the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 189
Matt Fargo
Lakers at Grizzlies
Pick: Grizzlies +2.5
The Lakers are coming off a huge come-from-behind win on Sunday over the Celtics and their one-point win resulted in a push yesterday and a letdown for tonight. Los Angeles was finally able to breakthrough with a win against a winning team during this roadtrip as it is now 4-0 against teams with a losing record and 1-2 against teams with a winning record. This is the final game of the eight-game trek and it has been a long 12 days for the Lakers who at this point are a spent team. This is obviously the second game of a back-to-back trip but also the third in four and the fourth in six so there has been a lot of minutes played as well as a lot of travel. They now must try to focus following that last second win over Boston and not look too far ahead to their return home and I think it is too much to ask for in this spot. Lakers forward Lamar Odom said it best. “They smacked us two years ago,” he said. “It was a big game for us.” Memphis has lost two straight games including a rare home loss on Saturday against New Orleans. That loss came in overtime and snapped an 11-game home winning streak for the Grizzlies. Included during that run were wins against Oklahoma City, Orlando, Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah and Denver so over half of the wins were against top caliber teams. After starts of 1-8 and 6-12, the Grizzlies have gone 24-13 and 19-9 respectively since then so the slow start has definitely cost them but they have recovered great. The Lakers have won five straight meetings in this series including a four-game sweep last year and the first meeting this year. The loss this season took place in Los Angeles and was early in the season when Memphis was still mired in that slow beginning. As mentioned yesterday, the Lakers are in a spot that has not been kind and they were able to get away with one on Sunday. On the season the Lakers are 8-2 ATS on the road against losing teams but only 1-8-1 ATS on the road against winning teams. As a small favorite of fewer than five points Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS and when the line is anywhere from +4.5 to -4.5, the Lakers are 0-8-1 ATS. Memphis meanwhile is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog and falls into a great situation here. Play against road teams after four or more consecutive wins and are now playing their 3rd road game in four days. This situation is 40-17 ATS (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons and it gets extended tonight. Add to that, the Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage greater than 600. 9* Memphis Grizzlies.
Mike Lineback
Phoenix +1
Blade can you give me your opinion on Anthony Redd plz. He seems to do well when I look. Thanks!
WUNDERDOG NHL (PREMIUM)
Game: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Marc Lawrence
Dallas +4
When the Mavericks travel to Utah to meet the Jazz at the Delta Center tonight they will be looking to avenge an 18-point loss suffered a month ago in Dallas. That good news for the Mavs considering their 28-12-1 ATS mark in games when avenging a same season defeat of 15 or more points, including 19-5 ATS when Dallas is off a SU and ATS loss. Dallas has also fared well in this series when playing off a SU favorite loss, going 4-0 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points. The Mavericks are also an eye-popping 12-4 SU and 15-1 ATS in games after losing SU as a favorite, including 6-0 SU and ATS on the road this season. With Utah off a same season revenge win over Sacramento and 0-4 ATS at home in games after the Kings, we'll grab the points in this payback tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Dallas.
NSA
20* Connecticut +7
20* Oklahoma St +2
20* Washington +4.5
10* Memphis +2
10* Charlotte +1.5
10* Akron -13
Teddy Covers
Oklahoma State
Marty Otto
UCONN +6
Boston Under 191.5
Vernon Croy
Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards
Pick: 5 Units: Washington Wizards +4.5
Take the Washington Wizards ATS, This pick falls into one of my top NBA systems and the Celtics are coming off a big 1 point loss at home against the Lakers last night. The Celtics are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and they are also just 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Wizards are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that has a road victorious record above .600 and the Celtics have been out-rebounded by an average of 6.6 rebounds per game over their last 3 games. Take the Wizards as my NBA Play for Monday.