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Dallas and Utah OVER 200
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300 Buffalo
Mike Lineback
Phoenix +1
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3* Boston Celtics
Frank Patron
40000 Unit College Lock #2
Oklahoma State +2
Trent Citron
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5* Buffalo
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400 Texas
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3* Dallas
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Jeff Benton
20 Dime: DALLAS MAVERICKS
You can’t trust the Mavericks to cover a pointspread at home, where they’re 5-17 ATS this year (including 1-12 ATS in their last 13). Send them on the highway, though, and it’s an entirely different story. Dallas has one of the best road marks in the Western Conference at 16-9 (15-10 ATS).
True, the Mavericks have to play the Jazz in Utah tonight, which would appear like a tall order since A) Utah has won five in a row and 10 of its last 12, including seven straight and home, and B) Dallas is 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 trips to Salt Lake City. But this is a unique situation because the Jazz are dealing with some key injuries. Carlos Boozer will miss his second straight game with a calf injury, while fellow forward Andrei Kirilenko is questionable with an illness. That’s a combined 31 points and 15.4 rebounds per game that potentially will be on Utah’s sideline tonight.
More important than that, Boozer would be the guy mainly responsible for sticking with Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki, who is having an MVP-type season (averaging 25.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game). Well, in two games against the Jazz this season – games in which Boozer and Kirilenko played – Nowitzki went for 40 points and 11 rebounds and 29 points and eight rebounds.
Finally, because the Jazz are on such a pointspread roll (9-1-2 ATS last 12 overall), because Dallas has struggled so much at the betting window (8-20 ATS last 28 overall), and because of the home team’s pointspread success in this rivalry (21-5-1 ATS last 27 meetings), you know this is NOT a true number. It’s absolutely shaded in favor of the Jazz … and yet the Jazz are still just a four-point favorite. Pretty telling, no?
Bottom line: With the injuries to Boozer and Kirilenko – plus point guard Deron Williams coming back after missing Utah’s last game to attend a funeral – there’s a big personnel advantage with the Mavericks, who are 100 percent healthy and 100 percent rested (Dallas is playing just their fourth game in the last eight days). Take the points, and don’t be surprised by an outright upset.
Stu Feiner
100-Dime Milwaukee +6.5
100-Dime Sacramento +11.5