BEN BURNS
10* Tennessee State -3
9* Maryland -9
Eric Degarde
2* Jacksonville State +8.5
2* Kansas -7
1* Connecticut +9.5
Kyle Bales
15* Villanova -9.5
10* Maryland -9
5* Kansas -7.5
LOU PANELLI
20* Uconn under 155.5 (100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
20* Kansas over 140 (100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
10* New Mexico St over 145.5
10* Arkansas St under 135.5
10* Virginia over 133.5
10* Virginia +9
Teddy Covers
Fairfield
BIG AL
3* Texas A&M
Tony George
KANSAS -7
Yes Texas AM is undefeated at home at this year. They drained the tank on Saturday in a big win at Texas texas Tech by 2 points while KU was dismanteling Iowa State with ease at home, not hardly breaking a sweat. Kansas went into Texas and beat them by 12, on big Monday and are 17-5 ATS on Mondaty Night Games their last 22. They own every single edge in this game, most importantly, depth and rebounding. A strong homecourt here for Texas AM no doubt, but KU well atuned to hostile enviroments and with the advantage of getting cheap buckets from rebounding, they should win by 10-12 points here. Play 1 Unit on Kansas.
Lenny Del Genio
TEXAS A&M +7.5
We have spoken numerous times this season on the subject of home court advantage in the Big 12. Texas A&M has certainly done its part, winning all 13 games in College Station and the Aggies carry a 16-game home win streak overall into tonight's showdown with #1 Kansas. Making them a sizable home underdog is way too attractive to pass up here, particularly because Kansas is just 1-4 ATS its last five games and is coming off two very poor shooting performances. The Jayhawks have shot just 40% and 42.4% in their last two games, both comfortable wins, but note they led Iowa State by just two points with a little more than four minutes remaining on Saturday. Earlier in the year, the Aggies took then #1 ranked Texas to OT, easily covering a 14.5-point spread. They've been a remarkably effective 6-3 ATS as dog this season, taking four of those games outright. As mentioned earlier, they have been quite effective at home, going 13-0 with a scoring differential of nearly +17. They are particularly strong on the defensive end, allowing just 59.8 points per game. They've also done a good job keeping opponents off the glass as well with the last six teams they've faced all grabbing 30 or less rebounds. These teams have played eight common opponents and the Aggies are 6-2 ATS in those games compared to just 3-4-1 ATS for Kansas. Texas A&M is our #1 CBB Dog of the Week.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
UConn/Villanova UNDER 157
The fourth-ranked Wildcats look to continue their pursuit of a second conference championship in five years Monday night when they host a scuffling Huskies team trying to avoid losing for the sixth time in seven games; for a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "under" in this situation:
In need of a win to help its already slim NCAA tournament chances, UConn shot a season-low 34.6 percent in Saturday’s 60-48 loss to Cincinnati, its lowest point total since 2002. Connecticut’s three big men, Ater Majok, Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu, combined for zero points and six rebounds, as the Huskies lost for the fifth time in six games; I expect another offensive letdown this evening; that said I do expect a decent defensive performance tonight as they brace for high-scoring 'Nova and coming off that embarrasing effort.
Keep in mind that Connecticut has in fact seen the total go "under" the posted number in five of its last six overall and in 10 of its last 14 on the road.
On the other side of the court: Villanova (22-2, 11-1) defeated Providence 92-81 on Saturday and took a half-game lead atop the conference with second-ranked Syracuse’s home loss to Louisville on Sunday. The Wildcats haven’t won the league since sharing the regular season title with Connecticut in 2005-06.
Villanova has the nation’s second-ranked scoring offense, averaging 85.4 points.
But it's interesting to point out, that although Villanova rarely plays to "unders", it has seen the total go "under" the number in both games its played this year as a home favorite of 9 1/2 to 12 points.
Bottom line: The Huskies will likely have a tough time keeping up with this potent offense, and ultimtaely that will be the difference in the outcome of this play; they haven’t scored more than 69 in any of their past six games, and are 2-11 when failing to reach the 70-point mark this season.
This number is a little bit high; expect the total to sneak UNDER it!
10* UNDER
Bob Balfe
UConn +9.5
Scott Delaney
50-Dime NEW MEXICO STATE
I there are some things that are too good to be true, and this may look like one of them, but I don't see the Aggies letting a weathered Hawaii team get close at all tonight.
Hawaii is in after getting beat in Ruston on Saturday night, losing 66-60 to Louisiana Tech. It marked the Warriors' sixth straight setback and eighth in nine outings.
Now they have to take on a team that not long ago was tied for first place in the Western Athletic Conference with Utah State, but was knocked from the top slot after losing 83-64 to Fresno State last Thursday night. Now the Aggies are tied with Louisiana Tech for second place in the WAC at 8-3.
And this could very well be the blowout win the Aggies need for momentum heading into the final stretch of the season. Hawaii is losing its road games by an average final of 78.5-61.3, and will be playing its fourth road game in its last five outring.
New Mexico State has won four straight meetings and seven of its last eight, while the Aggies have covered seven of the last 10 clashes.
Checking the betting numbers, the Warriors are mired in ATS slides of 4-9 in WAC play, 5-12 against winning teams, 4-10 off a straight-up loss, 2-5 against teams that win on their own court, 3-9 as an underdog, 0-6 after an ATS cover and 5-14 overall.
On the flipside, the Aggies come in here on spread streaks of 11-3 in WAC play, 4-1 at home, 5-0 off a straight-up win and 7-2 overall.
Playing on the road once again, not to mention having to play with an abbreviated roster, this looks too good to be true ... but it's not. It's a sure blowout winner!
Opposite Action Plays
Villanova -9.5
Marc Lawrence
Texas A&M +8
When the Aggies host top ranked Kansas at Reed Arena in College Station Monday night they will do so knowing they are 4-0 ATS in this series when playing off back-to-back wins. A&M is also 7-0 ATS as a conference home dog of more than six points in games in which they owns a .500 or greater record. The clincher is the fact that home dogs of more than six points, playing with revenge on a court where they have won at least 75% of their previous 40 home games, are 7-0 ATS if they own 13 or more home wins on the season. With the Jayhawks just 5-9-1 ATS as favorites of 21 or less points this season, look for the Aggies to improve to 14-0 SU at home here tonight in this major upset. We recommend a 3-unit play on Texas A&M.
The Duke's Sports
TX A&M (+7) for 1.5 Units
This year, TX A&M has flown under the radar by playing to the level of their opponent. At times, they've struggled to cover against lightweights but have hung with some heavyweights of the Big 12. Tonight will be their biggest test; however, the Aggies have a strong home floor (13-0 SU) moreover, they sport a 6-1 ATS mark as a home dog in this spread range. Currently, the Aggies are on a 4-0 SU/ATS tear and should put on a good show tonight in front of a packed house. On the other hand, Kansas continues to be overvalued on a 1-4 ATS slide. Talent level surely favors the Jayhawks and on a good night capable of blowing out teams like A&M however, on this night, we'll look for the fundamentally sound Aggies to hang tight as we get decent value with them as a home dog.
BIG AL
3* Texas A&M
UCONN +9.5
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut Huskies plus the points over Villanova. The Wildcats are clearly the better team, but this line is a bit inflated with UConn coming in off back-to-back losses to Syracuse and Cincinnati (as well as losses in five of its previous six games). Perhaps UConn's struggles should have been a bit expected, with its coach Jim Calhoun missing 3 1/2 weeks. But Calhoun returned to the sidelines on Saturday, and I fully expect his team to start playing better, especially if it has hopes of making the NCAA Tournament. Villanova has struggled over the years vs. .650 (or worse) foes off back-to-back losses (24-46 ATS), and is also 0-3 ATS at home vs. UConn if the Huskies are off a straight-up loss. Finally, Big East home teams off back-to-back wins are a poor 39% ATS over the past 20 years vs. winning conference foes off back-to-back losses. Take Connecticut plus the points.