SCOTT SPREITZER
3* West Virginia
NH LPro Picks
New Jersey -103 (bet to win 1 unit)
Edmonton +200
St. Louis +136
Clayton Rice
3* Mavericks
3* Magic
3* Texas
3* Siena
2* Villanova
Eric Degarde
1* Rider Over 145
1* Elon Over 141.5
1* Elon +7
KELSO
3 units Villanova +6
10 units New Mex St -2
15 units Spurs +4
25 units Valparaiso -10.5
WUNDERDOG
3 Units Golden State
Lenny Del Genio
Texas +2
Off a SU loss at Oklahoma, their fourth SU loss overall in six games, and now hosting the #1 ranked team in the country, this game is "must win" territory for the Longhorns. Now 1-7 ATS in league play this season, Texas lost its last home game, 80-77 in OT to Baylor. As we've noted before, just because a team "must" win a game does not neccessarily mean that they will and considering the way the Longhorns have played recently, it would be easy to justify a play on top-ranked Kansas. However, we're not going to do that. The last time the Jayhawks played here in Austin, they lost 72-69 and note that they were favored in that game as well. The previous visit before that resulted in a 25-point loss. The time before that, it was 15. Getting back to this year, Kansas has failed to cash three straight games and over the last three seasons is 0-9 ATS after having won 18 or more of their previous 20 games. Meanwhile, since '97, Texas is 13-3 ATS at home when playing for the second time in three days. Most important here is the fact that the Longhorns have won six straight games at home vs. teams ranked in the top five. Texas is our 20* Big Monday Game of the Month.
10* TNT Totals Winner
San Antonio/LA Lakers Under 193.5
Opposite Action Plays
Hornets/Magic Over 193.5
Tony George
Kansas -1
Texas off a loss as predicted in the forum on Saturday by your truely, and 1-9 ATS their last 10. Longhorns at home is tempting, but KU's post game and depth too much to overcome for inconsistent Longhorns. KU is 11 ppg on defense in their klast 5 games and Aldridge will own the paint. KU can push the ball, recover from being down and rotate players and schemes that will be no match for Texas. KU loves Biog Monday, 16-5 ATS their last 21 appearances on ESPN Monday. Play 1 Unit on Kansas.
Ron Raymond
New Orleans/Orlando Over 194.5
When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Total is between 190 to 195 - Last 4 years - Coming off a 4-7 point win - Scored between 101 - 105 POINTS FOR in their last game; the OVER is 11-5-1 for the Road Underdog in this spot.
Philadelphia -110
The Devils have not been a better hockey team with Kovalchuk in the line up, they were lucky to beat Toronto on Friday night and lost 3-1 to the Rangers on Saturday. Home ice advantage here for Flyers and it’s not that expensive. When PHILADELPHIA team played as a home team - Last 3 years - After a non division game - Coming off a 2 game losing streak the Flyers are 9-2 SU in this role.
Marc Lawrence
Texas +1
The Longhorns return to Austin off Saturday's disappointing loss at Oklahoma to host the Jayhawks in a key Big 12 battle at the Frank Erwin Center. When Kansas takes the court they will do so with a 2.5 game lead in the conference. Meanwhile, Texas is tied with three other teams with three conference losses in a battle for the 2nd spot in the Big 12. The Longhorns are an eye-popping 141-15 SU at home this decade, including 84-4 when they own an .800 or greater win percentage - and 15-0 when they own an .800 or greater win percentage when the opponent is off a win of 11 or more points. Inside this series Texas is 5-0 ATS with revenge when Kansas is of a win. The Horns are also 7-1 SU and ATS this season in games against an opponent off a win of more than 10 points this season, including 3-0 SU and ATS at home. With the Jayhawks 1-5 ATS against .800 or greater foes this season, including 0-2 in conference play, look for the Longhorns to get back on the win track here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Texas.
Bob Balfe
Dallas -4.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Los Angeles/Anaheim Under 5.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
The Kings seek their 10th straight win and sixth in a row over the Ducks as the teams meet for the second time in five days Monday night in Anaheim.
Los Angeles has solidified its position during a nine-game winning streak, which continued Saturday with a dramatic 4-3 victory over Detroit. The Kings trailed 3-0 after one period, but erased the deficit in the second and won when Michal Handzus scored with 2:21 left.
A strong defense in front of Jonathan Quick has helped. Kings coach Terry Murray stuck with the young goalie after the rocky first period and Quick responded, picking up his 34th win - one shy of Mario Lessard’s single-season franchise record set in 1980-81.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" in eight of Los Angeles's last twelve on the road.
On the other side of the rink: The Ducks hope to benefit from three days off since the defeat to the Kings. They allowed a total of two goals while winning three straight before losing to the Kings.
Jonas Hiller went 4-0-0 with a 0.74 GAA in his first four starts against the Kings, but lost his last five matchups with them, posting a 4.59 GAA in that stretch. Quick, meanwhile, is 5-0-0 with a 2.60 GAA in his young career against the Ducks.
Remember, the total has gone "under" the number in five of Anaheim's last six overall.
Bottom line: When taking all of the above factors into consideration the sharp money in this one is indeed on the UNDER!
6* UNDER
King Creole
2* GSW / DAL Over 218
On Saturday, we went 'UNDER' in the Warriors / Thunder game and came away with an EASY 16-point win. We switch gears to the 'OVER' on Monday night as the reeling Dallas Mavericks (0-6 ATS last 6) come to town. This is a series with VERY high-scoring tendencies when playing in the Bay Area. DALLAS and GOLDEN STATE have gone 8-2 O/U in the last 10 meetings here... and that includes 7-1 O/U when Dallas is laying points on the road (like tonight).
As mentioned, Dallas comes in on a 7-game ATS losing streak... while Golden State has lost eight STRAIGHT games themselves.7-1-1 O/U last 10 years: All NBA teams off 7+ SU losses in a row (Warriors)... vs an opponent off 6+ ATS losses in a row (Mavs).
4-0 O/U last 2 years: All NBA road favs of 10 points playing off a SU loss in which they were a DOUBLE-DIGIT favorite (Mavs).
16-4 O/U last 12 months: All Non-Division teams playing off BB ATS losses in which they were a favorite of -9 > points in each game (Mavs). And when the OU Line in these games is > 195 points (like tonight), the result improve to a PERFECT 7-0 O/U.
3-0 O/U this season: All Western Conference home dogs playing off 7 or more SU losses in a row (Warriors).
8-2 O/U last 4 weeks: All Western Conference underdogs playing off 3 or more 'UNDERS' in a row (Warriors)... when the OU line is 200 > points.
10-2 O/U since Dec: All Western Conference home teams in a '1/2' REST situation (Warriors)... versus a Western Conference opponent (Mavs). When the OU line is 200 > points in these games, the results are a PERFECT 3-0 O/U.
4-1 O/U this season: All MONDAY NBA games in which the OU line is > 217 points.
Ben Burns
I'm playing on Orlando and New Orleans to finish OVER the total. The Magic have been involved in a number of low-scoring games recently and that was the case again yesterday. Admittedly, they've been a very profitable 'under' team recently. They're still scoring points though, as they've topped the 90 point mark in 11 straight games and are still averaging greater than 100 points per game on the season. At home, they're still averaging a healthy 103.5 points per game. Even with their strong defense, their home games are still averaging 196.8 combined points per game. For the season, they've been a very profitable 'under' team on the road but have still seen more of their home games finish above the total, than below it.
This evening, they'll face a Hornets team which has been at the opposite end of the spectrum, as New Orleans has seen the OVER go 8-1 its last nine games with ALL nine of those finishing with a minimum of 195 combined points. Those nine games have averaged a whopping 209.78 points. Facing such a team, after yesterday's defensive battle, I expect the Magic to be more than happy to get involved in a bit of a shootout.
While many might assume that the loss of Chris Paul to injury would have resulted in the Hornets playing low-scoring games, clearly that hasn't been the case. Paul's replacement, Darren Collison scored a season-high 25 points, going 9-of-17 from the field last game. He was quoted as saying: "I have a chance to use my speed and quickness. Like Tim Floyd told me, if you have a cannon, shoot it."
The Magic have seen the OVER go 8-5 the last 13 times that they played the second of back to back games. Five of their last six and seven of their last nine, in that situation, have produced a minimum of 194 points. Two of the last three meetings between these teams have finished with a minimum of 195 points. Given the Hornets' current style of play, I expect tonight's matchup to finish with at least that many once again. *8