The Duke's Sports
Kansas Over (153) for 2 Units
This series has gone 5-1 O/U and we still see value with the "over". Texas likes to run on their home floor vs the Big 12 going 3-1 O/U in that role tonight, we'll look for the Longhorns to attempt to out shoot Kansas in a full court frenzied pace. The Longhorns surely won't win with defense; after all, they've surrendered 78 ppg over their last 5 outings, and their won't be a quick fix vs the potent offensive Jayhawks. Both of these teams, as a matter of fact, have prolific scoring capability and average around 84 ppg. Kansas is 5-1 O/U vs a team with a winning SU record and 6-2 O/U as a favorite in this spread range. TX, on the other hand, is 5-1 O/U vs a team with a winning SU record, 5-1 O/U as a home dog in this spread range and should pull out all stops to get back in the upper tier of the AP polls after a precipitous slide.
Dwayne Bryant
Villanova at West Virginia
Bet: West Virginia -5.5
We're following the "smart money" in this one. Despite a majority of the reported bets coming in on Villanova, this line has moved from WVU -4.5 to -6 in some places. But this isn't just about backing the wise guys.
WVU can grab a share of second place in the Big East with a win tonight. The Mountaineers only home loss in 11 games at the WVU Coliseum this season was a heartbreaking one-point loss to Big East leading Syracuse. The WVU Coliseum has been a "House of Horrors" for this 'Nova class, as they're only two appearances in this venue have resulted in losses by 11 in '07 and 21 last season.
According to the Pomeroy ratings, WVU owns an edge in defensive efficiency, ranking 22nd in the nation as compared to 'Nova's #64 ranking. I always like to have a defensive edge when I'm laying points. WVU also has a size advantage in this matchup, so I fully expect them to win the battle on the glass ('Nova is +4.6 boards per game on the road, WVU is +8.7 at home) -- another huge element to the game, in my opinion.
Bottom line: Playing a top conference rival on national TV (ESPN) is always a huge emotional lift for the home team. With 'Nova getting drilled at Georgetown just two days, and knowing their recent history in this building, they could get that "here we go again" feeling when WVU gets a run going and gets up on them. The public is taking 'Nova, expecting a bounce back tonight. I see the opposite happening in this road contest. I expect WVU to feed off the home crowd, win the battle of the boards and play the solid defense that is necessary to get a margin here. Call it Mountaineers by 10. Lay it with West Virginia.
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units N.Mexico St
ATS FINANCIAL
3 Units Dallas Mavs -4
Wunderdog
3 Units Colorado Under
Andre Gomes
DAL -4 vs GSW
Ok, we have Dallas in here as a big public target tonight. Nevertheless I believe that we have a slightly edge with them as my key line is two full ball possessions (-6 pts) for them so I'm taking Dallas. I don't expect this line to change favoring the Mavs while the oddmakers are giving "too much love" for the Warriors who are supposedly a "tough team" to beat at home.
In my opinion the Mavericks have all the conditions to get done their job tonight against the Warriors even though at a first sight it looks like a tough game for them. We all know that the Warriors have been the "Mavs nemesis" through the last years and the Mavs are just 1-4 L5 games while the Warriors somehow were able to cover the spread in 6 of their last 10 games. However it's just the "matchups" that will kill the Warriors tonight and this isn't reflected in any trend or whatever.
The Mavs are having some problems in containing the opposing Point Guard as Jason Kidd isn't the same great defensive player anymore. Andre Miller, Deron Williams or even Monta Ellis torched the Mavs as of late. However the Mavs can live with that as long as they dominate the boards and secure the paint. The problem is that even in this department the Mavs are showing unexpected problems. For example in the last game, the Wolves big men simply crushed the Mavs bigs: Al Jefferson shot 7-11 FG, Ryan Hollins 6-12 FG and Kevin Love shot 8-12 FG. We are talking about a combined mark of 21-35 from the field - a 60% clip! Blazers F LaMarcus Aldridge has shot 10-20 FG against Dallas, Paul Millsap 10-16 FG and so the Mavs failed to win in those games.
Fortunately for them, the Warriors don't have any offensive power in their frontcourt and naturally that the Mavericks will solve this problem tonight. In the last game between these two teams the Mavs had some problems to win due to a huge performance from Monta Ellis who ended the game with a career high 46 points while shooting 17-23 from the field - still the Warriors lost by 9 points! Note that the Warriors had only 13 assists vs. 21 turnovers which tell us that they are playing selfish basketball as of late and they can't secure the ball as well. In fact, in the last 2 games they had 36 assists vs. 44 turnovers! Also in that game, the Warriors had an unexpected and rare edge in the boards 15-7 in offensive boards - it was the first time in 10 games that they had more boards than their opponents so for tonight I don't think that the Warriors will have a similar edge tonight.
Corey Maggette is banged up for tonight and some reports are saying that he is out for tonight. Nevertheless the Warriors have only in Monta Ellis and possibly Stephen Curry their offensive anchors and this isn't enough to win. For some reason they are 0-8 in the last games with the only win being against…the Nets!
The Mavericks will come for this game with a huge sense of urgency due to their bad stretch as of late: "We're disappointed with the way we've been playing," Carlisle said after practice Sunday. "We're looking forward to [tonight]. We want to end the first 52 games of the season on a high note."
Take the Mavericks in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Dallas Mavericks (-4)
KBHoops
5* New Orleans Hornets +9.5 *POD*
3* Golden State Warriors +4.5
5* West Virginia -5.5
4* Coll Charleston -6.5
4* New Mexico St -2
3* Kansas -1.5
RAS
Townson Ov 139.5
KIKKI SPORTS
LA Lakers
SPORTS UNLIMITED
5* Louisiana Tech +2.5
Craig Davis
30 Dime – VILLANOVA
15 Dime – MAVERICKS
VILLANOVA --- Either Vegas is setting us up with the "trap" of a lifetime or we're getting some tremendous line value after the way each team performed over the weekend. I prefer to believe we're getting some solid line value after Villanova played like crap at Georgetown (at least defensively) Saturday and then had to turn around and travel out of the snowy weather for another game just over 48 hours later. All the cards seem to be stacked against the Wildcats in this one with all the "outside" factors, but when you boil it down to the nuts and bolts of both these teams, I think you have to favor Villanova to at least stay within this number (which is currently sitting at +6 at the time of this writing).
I have no doubt in my mind that West Virginia is more than capable of winning this game, but the fact that they just pummeled St. Johns Saturday kinda tells me they are not treating any one game more importantly than another. Had they struggled to beat the Johnnies I might be a little hesitant to back the Wildcats in this spot, saying the Mounties were flat Saturday because they were looking ahead to this one... but, in fact, I believe it was the Wildcats who were looking ahead and that's why they came out flat at Georgetown. Meanwhile, the Hoyas lost a second-half lead at home vs. South Florida and eventually lost the game SU, which is another reason I liked G'town so much over Villanova.
When I handicap these college basketball games, I always take that into consideration before I release a play, and my feeling is that Villanova wants this game more, needs this game at least as much as, and is simply more talented overall than West Virginia. Villanova has been cash cow this season, covering 15 of their 21 lined games, including an 8-4 mark away from home. West Virginia, on the other hand, has burned cash this year, covering just 9 of 21 lined games with a 4-6 ATS mark at home. I've watched two recent West Virginia games, from wire to wire (Ohio State and Louisville)... both home games... and two games in which they were fortunate to come out on top. I'm not saying West Virginia is incapable of winning tonight, but to ask them to beat a very good Villanova team by 6 or more is a tall task. I'll take Villanova PLUS the number as my top play of the day.
DALLAS MAVERICKS --- If there's anything I've learned about the Dallas Mavericks this year, it's to bet against them at home and back them on the road. Despite their recent slide, the Mavs are still the best road team in the Western Conference and we find them in a GREAT spot tonight. A good team (like the Mavs) that is desperate for a win can often times use a game like this to get themselves back on track. Despite being 31-19 on the season, the Mavs could be a lot better (record-wise) than they are right now, had it not been for the fact they dropped four out of their last five and five of their last eight. Not only that, but the Mavs haven't covered a number since that 128-78 win over the Knicks back on January 24th.
I'm not going to say the Mavs are desperate, but this is as close to desperation as it gets. They need a win to get back where they used to be... the #2 seed in the West. For several weeks the Mavericks were the second best team (at least according to their record) in the Western Conference, but this recent slide has pushed them down the fourth best record in the Conference and they're in danger of falling further behind. The Mavs might not score as many points as the Warriors do, but they do shoot a better percentage from three-point land and from the line, they rebound and defend better, they turn the ball over less and they have a deeper bench. Golden State is going to play a nearly flawless game to stay within this number tonight, and with desperation in Mavs camp, I'm comfortable backing them as a small road favorite. Mavs by 8.
Dominic Fazzini
10 Dime - Kansas
The Longhorns are having problems right now, going 2-4 in their last six games. And they've been even worse to be on, going 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games.
Facing the Jayhawks today, even if it is at home, is no way to try and get back on track, and Texas isn't going to be able to do it.
Sherron Collins and Xavier Henry form a dangerous backcourt for Kansas, and Cole Aldrich and Marcus Morris should make things tough for Longhorns star Damion James in the paint.
Kansas is 17-7-2 ATS in its last 26 games against Big 12 opponents, while Texas is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 conference games.
The Jayhawks have won five of the last six meetings between the teams, though they haven't won in Austin since Feb. 11, 2002. But I think Kansas will use its balance on offense and tough defense to get past Texas today. Go with the Jayhawks to get the victory on the road.
Executive
300% J.Madison -1.5
300% La Tech +2.5
Kyle Bales
25* Villanova +4.5
10* Kansas -1
5* Mavericks -4.5
C-Star Sports
1000 Units Dallas Mav's
50 Units San Jose
Larry Nes
10* "TOM" NO/Orl OVER
The Orlando Magic are coming off a huge win, a 96-89 victory over the Boston Celtics that allowed the Magic to virtually erase their loss to the Washington Wizards on Friday (or at least allowed their fans to forget about it). The Hornets, who had lost three straight games got a win over the Bobcats on Saturday night to put an end to their losing streak. The Hornets are currently two games out of the eighth spot (behind the Portland Trail Blazers) so every game is important. The city of New Orleans is abuzz because of the Saints’ Super Bowl victory over the Indianapolis Colts and the Hornets would love to ride that momentum to a victory Monday night (note: New Orleans has in fact seen the total go "over" the posted number in 8 of its last 9 overall and in 5 of its last 5 on the road). The Magic enter the game looking for their sixth win in seven games and their ninth win in their last 11 games. The Hornets are 11-16 away from home and the Magic are 19-5 at Amway Arena (note: Orlando has seen the total go "over" the number in 12 of 23 home games this season). Look for both these teams to build off their recent victories; play on the OVER.
8* West Virginia
The Wildcats (20-2 overall, 9-1 Big East) saw their 11-game winning streak snapped Saturday at Georgetown, 103-90. They will play at the WVU Coliseum, where fans have been criticized nationally for vulgar language and poor sportsmanship. On their last trip to Morgantown nearly a year ago, the Cats fell under a 43-point barrage from Da'Sean Butler and were routed, 93-72. Georgetown sank 8 of 13 three-point shots against them in the first half and finished 10 of 19 for the game. With Butler going 7 of 7 from beyond the arc, West Virginia (19-3, 8-2) knocked down 10 treys in 15 tries in its 79-60 win Saturday over St. John's. While Villanova outscored the Hoyas, 36-26, in the paint, its four inside players managed a grand total of nine points. Starter Antonio Pena played only 11 minutes before fouling out. Freshman Isaiah Armwood grabbed five rebounds in 20 minutes, but missed three shots and two free-throw attempts (note: Villanova is in fact just 1-4 ATS its last five vs. West Virginia). The Mountaineers, winners of six straight, are led by Butler, a 6-foot-7 senior, who scored 33 against St. John's and is averaging 17.3 points. Kevin Jones, a 6-8 sophomore, is at 14.2 points, and 6-9 sophomore Devin Ebanks averages 11.1 points and a team-high 8.7 rebounds. Dalton Pepper, a 6-5 freshman from Pennsbury High, has played in 20 of WVU's 22 games off the bench and averages 4.2 points while shooting 36.2 percent from three-point range (note: not only are the Mountaineers 5-0 SU their last five, they are also 13-1 SU their last 14). Villanova may be anxious to erase that sub-par effort, but I'm expecting another letdown in this position; lay the points.
8* Texas
No. 1-ranked Kansas (22-1) has looked like the team it was supposed to be at the beginning of the season, but the No. 9 Longhorns (19-4) have stumbled about the place since being elevated to the top poll position back on Jan. 11. So instead of being a showdown with rankings and No. 1 seeds and the Big 12 championship among the stakes, this game is something entirely different, particularly for Texas. "It's not as hyped up as it was," Longhorns forward Gary Johnson said. "We thought they'd still be undefeated, we'd still be undefeated going into the game." The reasons Texas has plummeted from its brief stay atop the college basketball world aren't all that elusive, though they're not as simple as the media's obsession with the horrid free throw percentage would indicate. The Longhorns have shot .498 from the field in their victories, just .396 in defeat. Their offense has lacked direction through much of the year, but they have so many talented weapons that one or two getting hot in a night – along with reliable star Damion James – generally has been enough to get the Horns through; I expect a concerted effort on both sides of the court at the Frank Erwin Center (note: Texas always plays tough in front of the home town crowd; dating back to last year 15-1 SU its last 16). Marcus Morris had 20 points with 11 rebounds and Sherron Collins added 17 points Saturday, but Kansas needed a 16-1 spurt early in the second half to overcome a four-point deficit and beat last-place Nebraska 75-64. The Jayhawks shot 48.1 percent for their eighth straight victory since losing at then-No. 16 Tennessee on Jan. 10; I expect a letdown tonight (note: Kansas is just 3-6-1 ATS its last 10 overall and just 1-3-1 ATS its last five on the road). The Jayhawks shoddy play catches up to them tonight; grab the points.
8* New Mexico State
Magnum Rolle scored 21 points to lead Louisiana Tech to a 71-64 victory over San Jose State on Thursday night. Rolle hit consecutive baskets to give the Bulldogs (19-4, 7-2 Western Athletic Conference) a 46-32 lead with 14:20 to play and they never trailed again to win for the second time in three games. Olu Ashaolu added nine points and eight rebounds for the Bulldogs, who shot 14-for-28 from the field in the second half; I expect a letdown tonight (note: Louisiana Tech is 0-5 ATS its last five games; just 1-6 SU its last seven vs. New Mexico State). New Mexico State’s backcourt of Jahmar Young and Jonathan Gibson combined for 45 points and 10 assists Saturday as the Aggies defeated San Jose State 94-82. Young had 25 points and Gibson 20 while each had five assists for New Mexico State (14-8, 7-2 Western Athletic). Troy Gillenwater added 19 and 11 rebounds, and Hamidu Rahman had 11 points and 13 rebounds. The Aggies’ biggest advantage came at the free-throw line, where they hit 18 of 24 shots compared to 9 of 14 for the Spartans; I look for them to carry momentum into this game (note: New Mexico State is both 6-1 SU and ATS its last eight). Matchup issues for the Bulldogs tonight; lay the points.